Let Loose–Episode 9–First Look at the Breeders’ Cup

***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***

And welcome to let loose episode nine. This is our breeders cup. Look ahead, edition. Number one, I’m your host, Peter Thomas for Nitel. Happy to be back with you in the Brooklyn bunker, getting ready to pack my bags and head out to Lexington, Kentucky. The site of this year’s breeders’ cup and extremely happy to be joined as I so often am.

On, not just this show, but so many other of the podcast I get to do with my good friend coming to us from the planet, Texas. He’s the people’s champion, Jonathan kitchen, JK. What’s up. Trying to figure out why you’re not horizontal. The word on the streets. Are you just ran a marathon? Not a half, not a little five K, but like an actual marathon.

And you’re sitting upright in a chair. I think I would probably be in the hospital.

Good stuff. Um, I’ll tell you this. K. I probably would be in some sort of [00:01:00] prone position, but getting excited about the breeders cup. It’s like. In injection of goodness into the veins. It has. Re-energized me. I’m so happy to be here with you. By the time when we turn off this camera in a minute, I probably will hit the floor, but, uh, for the next 20 minutes or so, I’m going to be in good stead.

Let’s start off talking about this event itself. JK this is a Breeder’s cup, unlike any other, we’re obviously not going to have fans limited amounts of owners. To me, the only possible decision given the, the, the world were living in a, a little bit of a disappointment, but it’s also going to create, um, unique atmosphere.

And I feel like as somebody who is proud to be part of the breeders’ cup content team as are you, and it gives us a little bit of a responsibility to try to bring the fans there. In the outside world, a little bit of the experience of everything that’s going to be going on at this storied racetrack for this great event.

What are your thoughts as we’re heading [00:02:00] into this Breeder’s cup? Yeah, there’s a big part of, uh, the story that we had this summer and Saratoga was, was telling the story of what it was to be there, although it wasn’t the same and it’s not what people are used to. I just want people to rewind their brains a little bit to may.

June July. And that little thought in the back of your head is I hope they run the breeders’ cup. And so I’m fine. They’re running. We’re going to have 14 unbelievable races. It’s unfortunate. But 2020 has been pretty unfortunate as a whole. I’m just glad we’re going to have the races to watch. We’re going to have the races, the bet on the horsemen, the horses, the trainers, the connections.

We’re all going to have an opportunity to crown champions and to finish off their year and next year we’ll be back in a normal, hopefully we’ll be back in a normal situation. And then, uh, keen Lynn will have another opportunity in 20, 22 to do it right. Like I think we all wanted a keen Lynn and the city of [00:03:00] Lexington to have the breeders cup.

That is a great point. About 20, 22. I’m already pumping that idea to a lot of the English racing fans. I interact with that that becomes a must target and go to event. And just to underline what you said, I don’t think our friends at twin spires will mind be working a little blue here. J K. It’s been a crappier and the fact that we have this event to look forward to towards the end of it, um, is something that’s, uh, as a racing fan, very energizing.

And we’re going to talk about some of the horses who are getting your blood pumping. But first I want to talk about our latest offer from our friends at twin spires, new players can use the promo code. Get 200 for a $200 new player bonus head to the twin spires offers page for all the details. You can access that through the twin spires app or over@twinspires.com.

Obviously a lot of people watching this, you’re more dyed in the wool fans, but you’ve got a friends who are sympathetic to all things, uh, gambling and, and, uh, horse [00:04:00] racing. And we encourage you to tell them about this. Get 200 mm. Uh, code so they can get their journeys as horse players started. And maybe you can send them to some of our work, both here through the twin spires friends and also over it in the money podcast.com.

Okay. You are a guy known for multi race bats in the past. You have a, and maybe you’ll be doing this again. This year. Published. Some of your best multi race plays for the two days of the breeders cup sitting here as we are, uh, just over a week out from the event. Are you already starting to formulate sequences that you might be interested in playing and what multi-way sequences do you think you might be targeting at this stage?

Yeah. When it comes to the breeders cup, I’m always looking at these multi-racial beds. I love the pick five on breeders’ cup day. I love the pick six on breeders’ cup day because you’re getting an opportunity to get championship races, grade one races, and roll them all together. And we’ve got great [00:05:00] days on Derby day.

We’ve got great days, the Belmont day. Uh, there’s a bunch of great opportunities, Travers days, another one to run together a bunch of steaks, but nothing like the breeders’ cup with all of the great ones. You know what the intent is of the trainers, the owners and the riders. It’s the win on the day. It’s not the set them up for next time.

And I like being able to look at races and sequences. Uh, in that way. So, uh, those what I’m looking forward to the last year, we were lucky enough to have a dollar pick six out in Santa Anita. We have a dollar pick six this year at Penland. So it gives a lot of people, a lot of opportunities. And, um, I’m really looking forward to those sequences.

So that’s, that’s where all my money will be. It’ll be in the BCBC and in these multi-way sequences. Breeders’ cup betting challenge and amazing opportunity. And I’ll tell you what, if you’re a contest player, it’s something you shoot for all year. And if you’re somebody who bets big and doesn’t know about it, look into it because if you’re going to be betting something along the lines of the 7,500 over the two days that.

Uh, performs as your bank [00:06:00] roll in the breeders cup betting challenge. You might as well do that in the context of the contest and have an ability to participate in that prize pool, but just to hold your feet to the fire. If you’re talking, if you’re looking to two sequences, JK, the $1 pick six each day, that’s what really has your attention.

Yeah, more, more specifically on Saturday. Um, I’ll be looking, I’ll be kind of saving a little bit of extra, uh, powder on Saturday because there was a carry over last year from Friday. So if that happens, I don’t want to bust out on Friday and not have enough to really be able to fire it away at a great opportunity.

On Saturday, also on Friday, you’re not going to have all breeders cup races. You’re going to have something else mixed in underneath possibly the marathon. I’ve looked at the wagering menu yet. Um, so you have to, you know, you’ve got to deal with that, but on Saturday you’re getting straight grade ones.

You’re going to get the sprint. Usually you’re going to get the turf. You’re going to get the mile. You’re going to get, uh, the classic, the Distaff. So there are a lot of reasons why I liked it. That, uh, that Saturday sequence. That’s a great point about that [00:07:00] dollar minimum and how it can produce a carry over.

I love your idea. It’s rude for a carry on Friday. Maybe take a flyer, have some fun in case we, uh, you know, pick the world perfectly there, but then really get ready to dial in to that Saturday. Pick six, thinking back to your past breeders’ cups, successes, is there one that stands out to you one year? One that one horse.

Yeah, there’s two. I think that stand out the most, uh, 2014 Bobby’s kitten. It was my first breeders’ cup betting challenge I ever played in. Uh, we got a real estate office back then and on the white board, I wrote. I don’t care how much I will go all in on Bobby’s kitten at five to one or higher. And, um, unfortunately I just kinda kept losing money all the way until that point I had $2,000 left.

I didn’t feel like that was going to be enough to get where I wanted to be on the five to one. I thought I was going to get on Bobby’s kitten and I blew the 2000 trying to get more [00:08:00] so that I could bet Bobby’s kitten, but. I bet Bobby’s kitten in my pocket. And it was one of my biggest wind beds I ever made.

He went off and I think eight or nine to one, that was a very fun breeder. Scott, my friend, Nick tomorrow also had an Epic run in the BCBC that you’re getting fourth, the get seven trifectas. Um, and that was a fun day. And then last year I mentioned that carry over. We’re hanging out in the trophy lounge, a group of us, uh, Dominic Navitas, uh, Rashard Lewis, a handful of others.

And we, they asked me if we were gonna play the pick six, I created the ticket and I said, guys, it’s kind of expensive. Let’s not do it. And Rashard said, no, let’s do it. I’ll take more. So he took half. We split the rest of it up. We bet it at the last second. And we hit for about $60,000. So that was a, that was a lot of fun, too bad.

I can’t talk about great breeders cup memories without thinking back to 2003, you know, this was a. So the old days kids, I was actually at a simulcast facility. I [00:09:00] wasn’t just, I wasn’t playing on the twin spires app back in 2003, I wandered over to Saratoga harness to bet the breeders’ cup at Santa Anita that year.

And, uh, partially on my own handicapping and partially from reports on the ground from my great friend, Sean Clancy. Who was there watching horses work every day. You know, I think these Mandela horses are going to run really big for them. One I’ll admit I wasn’t sharp enough to have action this day on the tickets, but I had something on the other three and it was a very memorable and pleasing breeders’ cup.

We were partying in Saratoga that night. JKL I can tell you that much. I can party in Saratoga without winning. So I know talk about the specifics of this year’s cup. Obviously we’re doing this before, even the pre entries, but I know you you’re a horse to watch guy, and I bet you’re already starting to form some opinions about the horses.

You’re most excited to see if I asked you to make a list of three who’s the first [00:10:00] one that comes to mind. Well, I mean, some of this is bedding. Some of this is fanfare. Some of this is just excitement. I’m really looking forward to seeing Jackie’s warrior has really proven to be a real runner. And I’m looking forward to seeing him kind of getting that two term test.

I’m also very pleased that I said to him and not her. So that’s another, that’s the first wind of the breeders cup for me. I’m really looking forward to Jackie’s word. Just been impressive fast. Gets out there on the front end, Steve ASMIS and obviously had a ton of success with two year olds this year, really looking forward to Jackie’s warrior.

Um, also, um, really looking forward to Tacoma who is, uh, from what I understand has been pre entered in the sprint six furlongs obviously it’s a question, Mark. He’s got the grade one at seven. This year. He’s got the grade one and the one turn mile. He’s just a really talented horse. I think the draw is going to make a huge deal for him.

If he can draw outside. Yeah. One of those Roy H type of trips where he doesn’t have to be pressed, he [00:11:00] can sit, watch. I don’t care how wide he goes. He can be five wide. You can stay in the clear and not get that pressure. I think he could be a lot of fun to watch in the sprint. And then, uh, I’m looking forward to, uh, watching, uh, the Philly, uh, aunt Pearl.

If you remember, there was a lope de Vega Philly couple of years ago that ran in the juvenile fillies turf and. She was pretty good. I think this one might be good as well. Looking forward to watching this front running forward type of Philly that was bred overseas and looking forward to seeing our run in the juvenile fillies turf.

And when it comes to a betting standpoint, it really just matters where all these races lie, where they land and what other opinions I have built around them. So, um, A couple of years back in the breeders cup betting challenge, I was against Serengeti impres and was into newspaper of record. So I made a big move there.

Uh, it really just depends on what races land, where and how it all unfolds, but those were three horses I’m really looking forward to watching. Let me hit you with a couple of follow ups on them [00:12:00] first with Jackie’s warrior and don’t feel bad about slipping that up. Even race scholars have gotten it wrong when it comes to Jackie’s warrior as a horseplayer handicapper.

What tools are you using to determine if, uh, stretching out a little bit farther and, or going the two turns instead of the one turn are going to be suitable for a runner like that? Or do you not really worry about that? And you’re, you’re just betting the tape and the numbers that you have in front of you.

Yeah. Not concerned with that at all. As it pertains to her.  I know I threw you off. I jinxed you by congratulating you. The thing about Jackie’s warrior is something I got from Richard Migliori and Gary, Stephen got both talked to them privately about this idea about one term verse two, turn. I know you and I have had debates about it as well.

And the idea that in these two turn races, they slow down into the turn. It’s not that it was only, uh, those, those two, uh, the hall of Famer in the hall of Famer quality and Richard Migliori. But it’s the idea that they get the slow [00:13:00] down into that first turn. And it doesn’t take as much out of them when they’re on a straightaway they’re actually running.

So the fact that Jackie’s warrior ran as good as he did in that one turn Champaign at Belmont, I have no concerns about him getting. That extra ground in that second term, he’s going to be very hard to beat. And in my opinion, he’s the most likely winner of the weekend. I think that’s a great points all around regarding Jackie’s warrior the coma.

Are you saying that there’s not going to be a cross center? I was assuming he might be cross centered in the dirt mile and the sprint. Are you saying it’s going to be sprint only. Well, I’m assuming he’ll be cross entered into both. Um, but I actually texted my, my buddy, the what, the beautiful shirts. We have a little bit in common Randy Hill this morning, just to double check.

And he said, He said sprint. And, uh, he’s been looking forward to that. He’s been telling me all year, he was mad at me that I liked volatiles as much as I did. So, uh, he’s, I’m glad I don’t have to deal with that. Sweat, that one with the [00:14:00] unfortunate retirement of volatile, we still have a Tacoma to look forward to.

And you mentioned aunt Pearl and obviously making a reference to newspaper of record. Who will be skipping the breeders cup, but it is amazing to see the success American owners and trainers have had at that sale on yeah. Maybe aunt Pearl is going to be the next, uh, the next one to make people think, Hey, maybe, maybe we should think about buying our turf horses over a town herself.

Forwardly placed turf forces are dangerous as channel maker. Oh, you saw what he’s been able to accomplish in the later half of this year and looking forward to seeing Emron as well. Um, the ground, if they’re a little bit of cut in there, you’d think that the lope de Vega part and being the Irish red wouldn’t give any problems there.

The ground probably won’t be rock. Hard, I would imagine. And she’s floridly placed and she finishes like a good order. So now you’ve seen it with Russian fall. We’ve seen it with newspaper of record being on the front end and still being able to finish to dangerous, dangerous weapon in this, uh, in this country.

It’s it’s the whole game for [00:15:00] sure. And while we’re talking about European invaders, JK, I want to give you one of the horses that I’m the most excited about. Obviously it’s, it’s early yet, and there’s a lot more to a lot more work to be done, but, uh, Tarnoff Iowa is a Philly. Who’s worth paying a whole lot of attention to this was a run the last day that I’m not sure if the officials ratings fully capture how good it was in the creedal opera, where I felt like the race flow was against her slow.

She was wide. She was back and still, despite being compromised was able to Quicken and win there. She’s got the kind of acceleration that I think will be really suited to USA racing and is one to really look out for. I feel like you could make a case that turnover would have won the arc. Had that been the target that day and with those kinds of [00:16:00] credentials, but not necessarily like the readings and numbers that go along with it, maybe we can get a little bit of value.

I don’t know if they’re going to go filly and mare turf or turf just yet. That’s one of the things I’m looking at, probably another that will be cross entered and we’ll have to pay attention to, but I don’t know how much work you’ve done on the euros. Yeah. But I w I would suggest you take a look at some of that tape.

Oh, I was waiting to, to, to let you do what you just did and waiting for our friend, Nick lock-in. Uh, what else do I need? There’s some domestic courses I’m interested in two J K and one. I’m not sure I’m not committing to him as a bet yet, but I’m really interested to see how tos the law continues to train.

Into this year’s breeders’ cup. I mean, this is a horse was being talked about in the same tones by seasoned horse players and racing industry veterans as Seattle slew and whatever happened in the Derby happened in the Derby. I can come up with a bunch [00:17:00] of different excuses. They might all be right. None of them might be right.

Maybe he got. A little bit lit up into the first turn. Maybe he doesn’t like Churchill downs, maybe a big 10 for a long effort at Saratoga. A few weeks before meant that it wasn’t his eight plus race in the Kentucky Derby looking at how Swiss skydiver after a big 10 for a long run, um, at Saratoga ran in the Oaks versus how she did a few weeks later.

Know those excuses might be right. None of them might be right. But one thing I’ll tell you is right. If that’s your bad race, You’re really, really good. And if he gives off some of those vibes in his training and we’ll be lucky enough to be out there the week of, and watching things ourselves, and talking to insiders who really know what’s going on with the physicality of horses, if he’s giving indications that he’s ready to move forward again, and there’s any chance he’s going to run his best race at the price, he’s going to be.

That’s a runner. Who’s going to be on my tickets. Can you, can you see [00:18:00] him? Are you, are you, is he, is he one that you’re, you’re thinking about or are you full on silver wig when it comes to the breeders’ cup classic? Oh, no, that was Barkley tag ball. There’s he? He’s got a little silver up there. Um, no, look I, everything you said makes sense.

I think that this is going to be a great race to watch and I’m looking forward to seeing if TIS the law can kind of turn it around. I remember in an interview, I believe with Maggie Wolf and Dale, the week after Mandy got back and was riding from, uh, from Churchill East, he was pretty adamant that TISM law.

Didn’t appreciate that racetrack. A lot of times people say that to jockey talk or that’s a trainer talk, but it’s talk and it’s talk that I’m listening to all consider, uh, he’s a horse that I will take into consideration, but he’s gonna have his hands full with some older horses. Uh, one other I want to mention.

It’s interesting because she’s not one, I don’t think I’ve ever been on, but I think of going to be honor in the turf sprint. Got stormy, the form that she’s in and the recent [00:19:00] course and distance success and overall sharpness and the types of fields that usually show up in a, in a turf sprint, she might just have class to edge all over this group and she’s been approved.

The, she can do the discipline. Now I get it. It’s a race where you could find live 12 to one shots, you know, seemingly every year, but I’m not so sure that, uh, getting stuck in to God’s stormy, isn’t a bad idea in the turf sprint. Have you given that race any thought yet? Um, yeah. You know, look, I, I’m not going to argue with God stormy.

She’s been pretty good. Uh, and the lighter part of the year started off pretty slow, but then, uh, after running, uh, I believe it was second in the, uh, four-star Dave. Um, she kind of turned around a little bit and started to kind of show the old gut stormy we remembered. And this new sprinting got stormy seems to be a happy one.

There’s another affiliate in there, I think is interesting. We’ll see if they pre-internet, Aleksandra I’m looking forward to watching, uh, Leinster obviously is turned out to be a pretty good one in his [00:20:00] own. Right. So I think what’s happened with her is she has caught a couple of. Not top quality sprint fields as a, you know, miler type and has beaten them on class alone, or she’s going to need to bring her a game to beat some of these sprinters, uh, especially going the five and a half of chemo.

It’ll be interesting to see that’s for sure. Uh, before we wrap things up, JK, I did want to ask you if you just had, we talked about sequences before. What about if I ask you to pin it down to one race, one must see TV race on each day. Let’s start with Friday. What are you most looking forward to? Um, I think from a, from a superstar performance.

Possibility. I’m looking forward to seeing the juvenile. Obviously I want to see what, uh, Jackie’s warrior does. Uh, the male Jackie’s warrior. I also, uh, aunt Pearl I think is interesting too. Could be a superstar in the making similar to what we saw with newspaper of record. And then on Saturday, uh, you talk about my CTV and it’s, it’s a great betting race as well.

I can not wait. Uh, to watch this [00:21:00] classic, you mentioned Disney law. Uh, the other three-year-old authentic. Uh, you get maximum security, uh, who, uh, crossed the wire first at a $20 million race. Earlier this year, you get Tom’s the top, you get improbable. Uh, the list goes on of what we’re going to see here in this race.

I think it’s going to be a lot of fun. Um, to, to, to see what happens and that classic, a lot of times it seemed a little lopsided in the class. You know, you look back to arrogant in California, Chrome. Those are the only two that could win that race. In my opinion, American Pharaoh back in 2015, um, you know, gun runner, uh, back at Del Mar.

And so it, it, it, it really kind of feels like this is one of the most wide open classics we’ve seen in a very long time. A lot of horses with the chance to deliver superstar performances, you didn’t leave any meat on that bone. For me, those were the races I was likely to mention anyway, JK. So I’ll, I’ll leave that one with you.

I do want to remind folks about, uh, the, the offer that we have for new players. [00:22:00] If you use that promo code, get 200, you can get a $200 new player bonus. You can get more details on that offer and other offers. If you go to the offer page over@twinspires.com or find it through the twin spires app, you also have the opportunity to opt in for a Churchill downs bet back promotion this weekend.

Once again, you’ll find all the information. If you go to the twin spires website, twin spires.com and the Twitter bar’s app is good. Giving push notifications to let you know about special opportunities coming up. I hit a pick for the other week simply because there was a really good offer on it. And, uh, it’s, it’s good to know about these things, so you can get involved.

I do want to give, uh, some programming notes before we get out of here. The next two episodes of let loose with me and JK are going to be happening on November 3rd and November 5th. You can find them through the twin spires, Twitter app, twin spires, or if you follow twin spires on YouTube and Facebook, we’d appreciate it.

If you followed along there, [00:23:00] and then I’m also psyched to be doing some previews with an old friend of mine. One of the first people I ever worked with at twin spires, gosh, probably 10 years ago. I did some fun work with ed DeRosa. We’re going to be doing some stuff, focusing on more of the international runners that those are going to be dropping October 30th and November 1st, once again.

At twin spires, twin spires, YouTube, and the Facebook pages. And with that J K, I’m going to thank you. I’m going to thank our friends at betting on content. And also of course, the good folks over at twin spires, looking forward to talking all about the breeders cup with you here and over in the money podcast.com and for those watching, until we see each other again, now you want all your photos.