Maiden Race of the Day: Belmont Park Race 4, Thursday, Nov. 12

Nine 2-year-old fillies sprint 6 1/2 furlongs on the Belmont Park inner turf in Race 4 on Thursday, a $100,000 maiden special weight with a Beyer par of 70. Three of them are by first-crop sire Flightline, including a $750,000 Keeneland yearling making her debut. Another is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Bella Sofia, and the 5/2 morning-line favorite returns from a debut that ended with a ride in the equine ambulance.

The Field at a Glance

She has run twice on dirt, and turf is new, but this is a turf sprint family. Her dam’s foals are 5-for-14 in turf sprints, led by Twirling Queen (Twirling Candy), who cost $15,000 as a yearling and has won eight races and $692,039 with a 95 Beyer. She won the Captiva Island Stakes on Gulfstream’s synthetic track in March and sold as a broodmare prospect for $150,000 at Keeneland November this month. Upstart is the weak spot: his runners win 9% of their turf sprints, against a 12% average for all sires.

Her debut came in a Sept. 7 Saratoga sprint where the form is working out (see below). She broke a bit slow and had to steady at the half-mile pole, and finished 4th. She was 3rd going a mile on Oct. 7 with a 66. Over five years, Brown’s maidens trying turf for the first time in their third start, after two dirt races, are 3-for-18 (17%).

Titletown also raced her dam, Portal Creek, who won eight races and $291,439 with a 97 Beyer and was 2nd in two Grade 3 stakes at Aqueduct, the Go For Wand and the Distaff. She made one turf start, unplaced. Her only other foal to race, Candy Creek, is winless.

Saintly Villain has been 3rd in both of her dirt sprints. She saved ground and “lacked the needed kick” in the Sept. 7 race at Saratoga (see below), then was 3rd again at Belmont on Oct. 10. She has a bullet half in :47 at Belmont on Nov. 1, the fastest of 29 that morning. Morley’s maiden special weight runners in turf sprints win 21%, but his maidens trying turf for the first time are 1-for-16, and his maiden special weight runners at 10/1 or higher are 4-for-116.

She sold for $110,000 less as a 2-year-old than as a yearling, and her trainer bought her.

On paper she’s the one to beat. On Sept. 18 she was beaten a half-length by Fiora going this same 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf, earning a 69, with Inflect 3rd. Fiora ran in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo next out, and Inflect won our Nov. 8 race with an 83 Beyer.

The catch is what happened after the wire. The chart says she “got pulled up in the gallop out and was attended to on the course and vetted and subsequently transported off the course via the equine ambulance.” It has been eight weeks, and her three works have been slow: halves in :50, :50 1/5 and :52 4/5, none better than 18th of 22.

This is a dirt family. Abraqat’s foals are 0-for-9 on turf, and the best of them, Best Actor (Flatter, $756,200, 97 Beyer), never ran on grass. Over five years, Abreu’s maidens making their second start win 19% (11-for-57), and 25% on turf.

Bach Stables also raced her dam, Bye Bye, who won the Grade 3 Soaring Softly at 7 furlongs on the Belmont turf in May 2021 and was 3rd in the Galway at Saratoga. Rockabye is her first foal.

She has the most turf experience here: 2nd in her first two starts at Saratoga, then 4th as the 7/5 favorite on Aug. 28. On Oct. 11 the race came off the turf, and she broke 9th, saved ground, swung four to five wide and ran on for 3rd. Her 71 Beyer on turf is the best turf figure in the field.

Clement wins 17% at the Belmont meet.

Her dam, Piedi Bianchi, was 2nd in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante and 3rd in the Grade 1 Chandelier at 2, ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and earned $829,497 with a 92 Beyer. Late in her career she won the Smart N Fancy Stakes on the Saratoga turf and was 2nd in the Grade 3 Intercontinental on the Belmont turf. Aneki is her first foal to race; an Uncle Mo filly was bought back at $310,000 and hasn’t run.

Curlin’s runners win 13% in turf sprints, close to average. The number that jumps out is the trainer’s. Over five years, Mott’s first-time starters are 34-for-433 (8%) and 8-for-127 on turf, but in turf sprints they’re 7-for-30 (23%) with a $4.52 return for every $2 bet. Two of those seven won at 10/1 or higher. She has a gate work in :48 at Belmont, 3rd of 87, on Oct. 10.

Her half-sister Bella Sofia (Awesome Patriot) won the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga in 2021, plus the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom, the Grade 2 Bed o’ Roses and the Grade 3 Vagrancy, earning $871,600 with a 102 Beyer. She sold for $1.85 million at Fasig-Tipton November in 2022. She was a dirt sprinter who never tried turf.

Aerial Affair has run 2nd twice and has the top two Beyers in the field, a 73 on dirt and the 77 she earned on Oct. 11, when the race came off the turf to the Tapeta. She sat closest to the leader that day, was heads apart for the lead a furlong out and kept on for 2nd. She has never run on turf. Flightline’s turf sprinters are 2-for-9, too few to tell much. Over five years, Antonucci’s maiden special weight runners in turf sprints are 2-for-25 (8%).

A Louisiana-bred, she was 4th at the half in the Oct. 11 race and tired to 9th. Her half-sister A Thousand Miles (Thousand Words), a $27,000 OBS March 2-year-old, has won five races and $330,840 and ran in the Grade 1 Gamely and the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch this year. Omaha Beach’s runners are average in turf sprints (12%). She has quick works: halves in :47 3/5 and :47 4/5 at Belmont in September and October, both ranked in the top 10%.

Over five years, Casse’s maidens going from a synthetic debut to turf second time out are 13-for-61 (21%). The price is the problem: his second-time starters on turf win 2-for-52 at 10/1 or higher, and she’s 15/1 on the morning line.

A $295,000 pinhook in seven months. Her dam never raced. All three of her older siblings have won, and the best is Candy Moonshine (Twirling Candy), a turf winner who has run in stakes at Saratoga and Aqueduct. First-crop sire Cyberknife’s runners are 1-for-16 in turf sprints.

Brown’s firsters win 19% over five years, but in turf sprints they’re 6-for-50 (12%), and the odds tell the story. Bet below 3/1, they’re 3-for-9. Between 3/1 and 9/1, they’re 2-for-32. She’s 5/1 on the morning line, so if she’s bet hard, take her seriously.

The most expensive filly in the race, and her value has held: her Uncle Mo half-sister brought $800,000 from Repole Stable at Keeneland September this year. Her dam, Daisy, won the Grade 3 Tempted at 2 for Fox Hill Farms. The best of the dam’s foals is Botanical (Medaglia d’Oro), who won the Bourbonette Oaks and the Cincinnati Trophy at Turfway and ran in the Kentucky Oaks, earning $442,925. All four of Daisy’s foals to race have won, but the family is 0-for-5 on turf.

Over five years, Clement’s first-time starters win 20% (23-for-114), and 22% on turf, the best debut numbers in the race. She worked five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 on Nov. 3, at the same time and distance as stablemate Rockabye.

The Common Race: Oct. 11, Belmont Race 5

Aerial Affair (2nd), Rockabye (3rd) and Mariner (9th) all ran in this race, which was carded for 6 furlongs on the inner turf and moved to the Tapeta.

Pace: Honest. Breaker led through a quarter in :22.09 and a half in :44.97, held on to the furlong pole and faded to 7th. Aerial Affair, closest to her all the way, held on for 2nd.

Trips: Winner Zomoroda, a $335,000 OBS April 2-year-old for Brad Cox, was 3 then 2 wide and 5 wide into the stretch. Rockabye broke 9th, saved ground and came 4 to 5 wide. Mariner was 4 wide in pursuit and tired.

Runbacks: None of the other nine has run back yet.

The other races: Blazing Beauty’s Sept. 18 debut and the Sept. 7 Saratoga race shared by Saintly Villain and Ready Set Roll have each produced a next-out winner (Inflect and Heirsuta), so the form from both is working out.

More handicapping from the Belmont meet: all of our Belmont Park coverage.