Monmouth at the Meadowlands Full Card Analysis – 10/18/24 – By Eric Solomon

With the exception of a two mile turf stakes race tomorrow at Far Hills, thoroughbred racing in New Jersey ends for 2024 with this six race card in East Rutherford tonight. The rails will be at 0 feet, meaning that as many as 12 horses are able to run in each race. The first race of the card goes off at 7:00 (EDT). 

Race 1:

While I think the most likely winner of this beaten $5K claiming race is the morning line favorite, Attached (#5), I do think there is a runner that might have a shot to take her down. Explosive Exchange (#10) draws the outside post for Mike Dini and jockey Francisco Martinez. All three of Dini’s winners at this meet have come when using Martinez, so he’ll continue to roll with the hot hand here. This filly faltered at this level a few weeks back when going two turns. She does have some respectable numbers while sprinting and I do think she can sit a good stalking trip from her outside draw. When Dini previously trained this filly, she was running some strong races at this distance, Attached has the edge after just missing at this level and distance in her last start. She’s been consistent, running three sharp races in her last four at this distance. However, I think the presence of Hipnotizada (#3) to her inside might soften her up in an early pace battle. Attached is the one to beat, but she’s going to be a short price and the pace scenario is not as good. I don’t think there’s a ton of competition, so I am going to cover with her though. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will go five furlongs in an open $12,500-$10,500 claiming event. There is a lot of early speed signed on for this race, so I’m thinking the versatility from a runner like The Furmanator (#3) could be a key asset. She’s never finished off the board in three career starts on the turf. She stalked the pace when winning at this distance at Penn National in June. She was overmatched in an off the turf allowance race a few weeks later. She broke from the rail in a 5 ½ furlong race at Monmouth two back and was well off the early pace. She closed a lot of ground to get into third, but horses were not winning from that far back at that distance at Monmouth during this past meet. She drew the outside post at this level at that distance last out and her rider was aggressive from that post and hustled her away from the gate in order to minimize the ground loss coming out of the chute. I think the five furlong distance might suit her better and with several speed and fade types in this race, she might be able to sit the right trip tonight. This spot is significant class relief for Eight Danzas (#8), who may be flying under the radar in this race at 20-1 on the morning line. She didn’t run a good race at Delaware in her last start, however, that course can be a little tricky. Her last effort on a firm course prior to that was a solid 4th place finish in a good allowance race at Penn National. Three starts back, she faced a horse named Lute Warm, who was a favorite in an allowance race at Keeneland this afternoon. The distance might be a little too short, but I do think she’s going to get a desirable set up. On deeper tickets, I’ll look to In the End (#10) to move to the front on the turn and keep on going. She had a three race winning streak snapped last out when she faltered in a state bred N1X allowance race at Belmont at the Big A, when going six furlongs. Sweezey had a winner at Keeneland this week and his barn has had some horses run well at this meet. 

Race 3:

The featured race of the evening is this state bred optional $30K claiming/N2X allowance race going one mile. Go to the Kingdom (#7) feels like a standout in this race. He ran very well off a similar break last year, scoring with open N1X company at Laurel. He ran two solid races at Monmouth this summer, finishing second at this condition in his first race of 2024 and then finishing a game 4th in the Irish War Cry Handicap. He was about four lengths better than his stablemate, Irish Rill (#5) in that race. I’ll think he’ll sit a better trip and run them down in the stretch. The backup play for me in this race is the three year old, Gold Trust (#3). He ran well in the Joey P. Handicap on closing day at Monmouth, but that race was a five furlong sprint. He comes back to two turns and I think that’s the better distance for him. He’s worked sharply for a barn that has been getting hot. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will go one mile in this $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming race. This race has the feel of a race that could be a little wacky. Dancing Nancy (#2) is the pick for going from a sprint to a route for Lillith Boucher. She ran a pretty good race at this distance at the Fair Grounds back in February. She has been bounced around since, but she ran a decent race while flying home late at this level last out. She came within 2 ½ lengths on the winner despite a poor break that pretty much sealed her fate. She’s a three year old filly, so there could be some upside with her here. Collective Gold (#3) makes her second start off a brief layoff. She was flat at this level last month, but she did have a wide trip, breaking from Post 9. Her 2023 turf races were fairly consistent and those efforts would likely get her pretty close with this group today. Calming Sea (#6) is the morning line favorite and the case for her is that she’s the controlling speed in this race, while making her second start off the layoff. I don’t love the way that she has been finishing races, but this is not a great field, so I don’t see a ton of other viable alternatives.

Race 5:

This is another $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming race, this one for three year olds and upward going five furlongs. Zingales King (#1) was an easy winner at this distance when breaking his maiden with $10K maiden claimers last out. Samuel Marin put him on the lead that night and never looked back. There’s a lot of other speed in this race and despite his rail draw, I think he’s better suited to back off of it and take the pocket trip in behind runners. I trust Samuel Marin to make the right call as he has been on fire throughout this meet, winning with 10 of 25 mounts coming into the day, Arteta (#4) is likely the speed of the speed in this race. He should be able to secure better position over his rivals in outside stalls. He led from gate to wire two back when breaking his maiden with $16K-$14K maiden claimers at Monmouth. He was claimed out of that race but he walked home in his first race for his new trainer when running on the dirt at Parx. This is a drop in class that is a little worrisome. However, his two efforts would both play very well with this field. 

Race 6:

The meet will conclude with a $10K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up, going one mile. Several of the contenders in this race are speed and fade types, so I do think this race could be ripe for a closer. Perhaps Gericault (#11) from the outside can get that kind of trip. He’s making his second dart off the layoff today after returning to the races in a turf sprint at Laurel. He was sluggish early, but he picked things up in the later stages of that one. His best career effort was his second start when he went from a sprint to a route at Turfway. The setup will be there if he’s good enough. Midnite Lumberjack (#3) was well spotted at this level last out, but he ducked out at the start, which set the table for his rival, Battle of Britain, to get away with an easy trip. He comes back off that effort, which produced a career best Beyer Speed Figure. He feels like the one to beat, but the setup in this race is not as good as it was last time. A crazy longshot in this race could be Asaasy (#1), making his third career start. He did nothing in his debut at Ellis and then was sidelined for over a year. He came back and finished 9th at this level last out. The speed figure improved enough to make me think that with the right setup, he could improve enough to get a piece of the pie. I prefer him underneath, but at long odds, he might be worth a few bucks to win as well.