Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – 5/17/25 – By Eric Solomon

While the national attention will turn to Pimlico and the 150th running of the Preakness, racing fans in New Jersey can enjoy a nine race card at Monmouth starting at 12:50 (ET) today. New Jersey bred sprinters are featured this weekend with fillies and mares going six furlongs in the Spruce Fir Handicap today and the boys running the same distance in the John J. Reilly Handicap tomorrow. Keep an eye of the weather and the turf condition as there have been off and on showers in the area throughout the week.

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

We’ll kick off the afternoon with an open $10K-$9K claiming race going six furlongs. I’m not going to try to beat Persistent Danger (#6) in this spot. Antonio Arriaga took over as the trainer of this Speightster gelding after some dull efforts over the winter at Aqueduct when racing for Rachel Keithan. Maddie Olver put him on the lead his last two starts and that has been part of the reason for his better efforts. He likely doesn’t fit at the bottom claiming level for the Belmont at the Big A spring meet, hence the ship to New Jersey. There’s not much consistent form elsewhere in this field, and I have some questions about some of the others that might take some money at the windows. As a backup, I guess I’d look to the nine year old gelding, Bronx Bomber (#4). He was dull two weeks ago with $12,500 claimers at Belmont at the Big A, however, his three efforts at Aqueduct prior to that weren’t terrible. Persistent Danger had his number in both of those starts, beating him by four lengths two starts ago. I’m impressed with what I saw from Sonny Leon here last weekend, winning twice with 12 starters and finishing on the board with six others. He’ll get the assignment today for Oscar Barrera. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $25K-$20K maiden claiming race. I typically prefer betting maidens with less starts under their belts, but there is a lot to like with La Dinamita (#5) in this race. She ran well enough in her first four starts on synthetic at Gulfstream, ,finishing in the money three times at this level. She was claimed and sent to Oaklawn where she ran three times at their recently concluded meet. She caught muddy and sealed courses in her first two starts there, but she ran her best career race when getting on to a fast dirt course for the first time. She ran well against a better field in Hot Springs and while I’d still play her if the course came up wet, I think she’s a big player on a fast track in this spot. Chestertown Jane (#1)  has had some issues staying sound, and as a result, there are some sizable gaps in her running lines. She made her first start of the year at the end of march at Laurel where she was very keen in the early stages. She gave way late to be a clear cut second, but she showed that she is a threat when she can break cleanly, which was a problem for her in her first two starts. She is one that figures to move forward in this spot. I’m going to take a stand against the favorite, La Vecchia Signora (#7) in this race. BLinkers are going for the first time after a dull effort as the heavy favorite in a $40K maiden claiming race last month at Tampa. Juan Avila didn’t have a great meet here last season, and while I like the equipment change, I didn’t like her effort last time out one bit. While she could certainly rebound in this spot, I’d want a much better price than her 2-1 morning line to play her in this race. 

Race 3:

It’s hard to ignore the start to the meet that Jamie Ness had last weekend, winning with three runners and having his 4th starter finish 3rd. He sends out Mosienko (#7) in this optional claiming/N1X allowance race, who will likely go into the starting gate at odds lower than her 7-2 morning line figure. She’s an eight year old mare that has cleared this condition in the past, so she’s racing for the $20K tag today. She was claimed for $45K back in November and her form tailed off a bit over the winter in New York. She did score in a state bred $25K claimer two starts ago and she was given a little time off after her last start. Since then, she was transferred to Ness, who has had her based at Parx for over a month now. While I’m not expecting huge gains from an older mare, I do think the brief break and the barn change are enough to bet on a small improvement. When you factor that in with a field where many of the runners don’t have a ton of upside, she feels like the safest pick. Since there is a chance that she could go off at odds that are simply too low, I’m also going to include Just Be You (#1). She’s making her first start in close to two years. Her first three starts came in Southern California when running for Jerry Hollendorfer. He still controls an ownership stake in this Justify filly, but Dan Ward is the trainer of record now. She faced some good horses in her first few starts before emphatically breaking her maiden against a weaker group at Los Alamitos in September of 2023. I do like that she’s not running for a tag. She had a few recorded works at Los Alamitos before joining Ward’s string in Arkansas. She worked there a few times before coming here where she had a drill over this course last week. There is definitely a bit of an unknown quality about her in this spot, but if the Ness mare isn’t going to win, I think she’d be the one. If her odds float up a little I’d be on board backing her, especially, if Mosienko was closer to the 2-1 range. 

Race 4:

The first race scheduled for the turf today is a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles out of the chute. The rails are set at 24 feet today. Every runner in this runner qualified under the N2L condition. Many of these runners feel like the same horse, so I’m going to try to go with the horse with the most upside and make Dixie Escape (#6) the top pick. She has four career starts, all of which came over the synthetic course at Gulfstream. She showed nothing in her first two starts in sprint races, but she took a sizable step forward to break her maiden while overcoming a tough break and going from last to first to score in a $17,500 maiden claiming race. Not many runners went from last to first on that course, so there is something to be said for that effort. She paired her Beyer in her next start when facing open $17,500 claimers, running in a race exclusively for three year old fillies. She’ll try the turf for the first time in this race. Her sire Unified, only gets 7% winners in turf routes, however, the dam has produced three winners in turf route races. One of those runners was a Grade 3 winner on this course. She’s been away since February and she runs for a barn that brought several live horses here to compete last weekend. Jorge Delgado was 2-6 with three other runners finishing in the money. There’s some risk here as she’s doing something new for the first time, but I see her as a live longshot to win this race. Classy Disposition (#1) is the logical alternative to use in the event that the top pick doesn’t relish the lawn. She’s been knocking on the door in her last three starts with restricted claimers at Tampa. She does drop in class, but I am worried about the rail post for her since she really doesn’t have any early speed to speak of. My Little Red (#2) is a deeper saver for me. Felix Flores-Coba is a Parx based trainer that has two winners with 59 starters over the last five years on the turf. You have to go back to 2021 to find the last horse that he trained to have won on the lawn. He also doesn’t have a great track record with runners coming back off layoffs of six months or more, winning only once with 15 starters in the last five years. That winner came back in 2022. He’s going to have to reverse a lot of historical trends to win this race with this English Channel filly. However, she does fit from a figures standpoint, and she could wind up being the lone speed in this race. I think there are many scenarios where she gets a sweet trip, so I do want to use her more as an underneath runner in this spot. Based off Flores-Coba’s recent track record, I think I’d need to get better than 12-1 to think about trying her to win, however, there are some things to like. 

Race 5:

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this maiden special weight contest. While the Chad Brown first timer, Layered (#1) is likely to take the bulk of the action, I’m more interested in a more low-key firster. Auroralinna (#8) makes the trip east from her Penn National base for Dimitrios Synnefias. The works over the Grantville, PA oval are sharp and the lone foal that made it to the track from his unraced dam is a 13 time winner. That one was a game second in his debut a few years ago. Synnefias is 7 for 25 with firsters over the last five years. He scored with a 9-1 winner on the turf here two seasons ago. He’s been based at Penn National for as long as I can remember, and when he ships a horse outside of Pennsylvania to make their career debut, the horse can typically run a bit. The morning line figure felt a bit light to me, but if this one is bet down from that number, I think that could be an indication that there is ability there. The main danger to the top pick figures to be the Oaklawn shipper, Bee Bluff (#6). This three year old filly has six career starts, including a pair of second place finishers here as a two year old last season. Her recent form has been muddied up a bit by facing tougher fields and also has a pair of two turn races in her last three tries. She’s been slow to break in her last two starts, so that’s a habit that Joe Bravo is going to have to break for her to win here. She has never finished off the board in four career tries at one turn.

Race 6:

We’ll go back to the turf to start the Late Pick-4. New Jersey bred fillies and mares will go one mile in this optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race. The shorter prices make the most sense to me in this spot. Summer Flower (#7) makes her second start as a four year old after a pair of respectable efforts at Tampa. She came on at the end of the 2024 meet here when facing Jersey breds, crushing a maiden special weight here by over six lengths at the end of August. She tried facing winners when facing similar company at the Meadowlands. She had a rough trip that evening while covered up. She was forced to steady off heels going into the first turn and she took up going into the second turn when a rival got a little too close for comfort. She looked like she was going to plummet to the back of the field, but once she was clear, she did re-rally, albeit mildly. I liked her last effort where she overcame trouble at Tampa when she was forced to steady early on in that race as well. I think the post near the outer half of the gate should actually serve her well in this spot. “Jersey” Joe Bravo getting the assignment won’t hurt her chances either. The mare that beat her that night at the Big M is Exclusive Champion (#9), and she’s going to have to tangle with her again. She showed no interest against a much better field on synthetic at Gulfstream in her last start. That race seemed to be designed to set her up to run here for the boosted New Jersey bred purses. She was a winner on this course last season when clearing the N1X condition. She was entered with the tag when she overcame a slow start win upstate and she’ll run back with the tag again today. These are the two that should decide this one. 

Race 7, The $85K Spruce Fir Handicap:

New Jersey bred fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this race that came up much stronger than it has in previous years. Mia’s Crusade (#9) is trying to win her third straight running of this race, and her fourth straight May start at Monmouth when making her first start of the calendar year. She’s been working well for Chuck Spina, but she is facing a few tough customers with Bel Pensiero (#1), Riding Pretty (#5), and Bingo’s Birkin (#8). Both her and Bingo’s Birkin were last seen finishing third and second, respectively, in the Pinot Grigio Stakes here last September on the turf. Bel Pensiero won that race and has since run two strong efforts in open N1X allowance turf sprints at Gulfstream. She’s definitely capable on the dirt, but her best work has come on the turf. I think she’s committed to running to the lead from her rail draw, and that likely puts a target on her back which I’m not sure she wants. I wasn’t willing to take 1-2 on Riding Pretty in the Eleven North Handicap last summer when she was trying six furlongs for the first time. She had no issue getting the trip, posting a career top Beyer Speed Figure while doing so. She outdueled Bel Pensiero for the win that day. Despite facing superior competition in her last few starts at Gulfstream, she has been flat. As a result, I’m playing for the three-peat with Mia’s Crusade. While she wasn’t as flashy last year as she was in prior seasons, she ran well enough to compete in some good races, facing many of these foes. I like her outside draw and I think a crafty journeyman like Isaac Castillo can keep Riding Pretty bottled up in behind runners. It is worth mentioning that Jomar Torres, who is named to ride here today and has ridden this horse exclusively for Spina since 2021, is not named to ride today. Castillo, who rode two winners here last weekend, is slated to get the call for the first time. I’m using both Bel Pensiero and Riding Pretty on the tickets as well. I do think an off track would make Bel Pensiero an upgrade.

Race 8:

Three year olds and up are slated to go 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course in this optional $40K claiming/N2X allowance race. Vamos Vieja (#6) is the morning line favorite and he makes a lot of sense while getting back on the turf. He ran well in several races on this course last season, however, his recent form hasn’t been the greatest. He’s eligible for the N2X allowance condition, yet, Kelly Breen has entered him with the $40K tag. That’s not the most encouraging sign, but I do think this is not the strongest field for this condition. There’s only seven runners entered for the turf, plus four main track only runners. Some of the horses entered for the turf appear to have no problem switching surfaces if the weather is not cooperating. When taking all of this into account, I’m not going to take a hard line stance against the favorite, but I will be using him. I’m interested in playing Awesome Ruta (#7) on top in this race. This is a four year old that has been improving since joining Dan Ward’s barn last summer. He ran on the turf once as a two year old at the Fair Grounds, and while on paper, that race doesn’t look very good, watching the replay is a little more encouraging. He was forced to take up on the turn and seemed to have every right to fall back through the field. He did re-rally to get back into 6th once he was in the clear. He’s drawn the outside post in this race if it’s going to be run over the turf. I think he’s sneaky in this spot.

Race 9:

We’ll wrap up the card with a $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming race going one mile over the main track. I’ll make Papa Funny (#3) for Diane Morici the top pick in this one. Three of his four career starts on the dirt have been in the money finishes, including a win with $12,500-$10,000 N2L claimers at Laurel in March when he was last seen on the track. He missed about a month of training but was working well at Laurel before coming here. Morici gave him a workout over this course last week and he appears to fit well in this spot. Likebelivingnmagic (#2) is the one that could be the loose leader in this race. He was sent for speed from an outside post in a similar spot at Tampa in his last start. He faded to be 3rd that day. The two turn mile might be a touch out of his comfort zone, but he was a maiden winner at this distance on the grass last season. Kathleen O’Connell is trying to get him rounding back into his better form. Knox (#4) feels like the horse that could be favored when the gate springs open. Jorge Delgado has yet another runner that looks live on this card. He connected with a winner with Chantal Sutherland in the irons last weekend and she gets the assignment on this gelding that has been kept out of the Winner’s Circle for almost two whole years. He was running at a similar level in one turn mile races at Gulfstream prior to coming here. Horses that have last raced at Gulfstream have won 25% of the races at this meet so far. I trust the human connections with him more than any other runner in the field, but I do worry that the value on a horse that has lost 12 straight races might be a little light. 

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 4/20 (20.0%), $22.00 $1.10 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)

Data for Winners Last Start

Another data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners were very strong here last season with 18 of 68 winners last running in Oldsmar, Florida. NYRA runners that are showing up here have not been faring as well as they were a few years ago