Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – 8/16/24 – By Eric Solomon

After some dicey weather last weekend, we appear to be all systems go for this eight race, Friday afternoon matinee. The Oceanport Stakes, which is the 7th race of the day, is the headliner on this card. First post is 2:00 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the fourth consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The week starts off with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the turf course. The course will almost certainly be firm and the rails will be set at 36 feet for the four races carded for the lawn today. There’s several professional maidens in this race, and none of them are standing out as serious win candidates. I’ll take a shot with Don’t Touch Me (#5), who is dropping in class after two dismal showings against better horses in races taken off the turf on the NYRA Circuit.  While it’s not a standout pedigree, she’s bred top and bottom for the turf, so if she has any ability whatsoever, I feel like she’s going to show it when running on the grass. Fernando Jara has ridden this course very well with limited opportunities at this meet, winning with 8 of 47 mounts (17%). She’s listed at 20-1 on the morning line. At 12-1 or better, I’m willing to take a shot. Destin for Drama (#6) had a miserable time of things in her last start. She drew the outside post and was five wide for both turns on a yielding course. Her effort two starts ago at Parx was solid and would likely be competitive with this field. Her other two races on the turf when she was trained by Michelle Castillo were better than her Tampa races when she was under the care of another trainer. I think she has a forward move in this race. Citrus Belle (#9) drew the outside post for her local debut. Draw a line through her last effort on the Tapeta and her turf form fits with this group. She moves into Jorge Delgado’s barn and his numbers with new acquisitions are solid. She’s the mild morning line favorite, and she has more upside than some of the other shorter priced runners.  

Race 2:

I think Lemon Creek Louie (#1) is the one to beat in this beaten $5K claiming race. He’s dropping out of state bred optional claiming/allowance company where he’s been running okay, but he’s likely not good enough to win at that level anymore. He was a winner back in December of 2022 when he was facing $7,500 N4L claimers at Parx. He was sharp here in 2023, but he’s yet to prove he can replicate those races this year. His last race showed some improvement while cutting back to a sprint. I think he’s better than his rivals at this point. The backup for me in this spot is Eddiemush (#6) making his 4th start of the meet. He’s run three consistent races here, finishing a game second at this level two starts ago. He’s likely better suited for the bottom of the vertical exotics, but he could be a horse that has a forward move in a race where many of his rivals seem to be trending in the wrong direction. 

Race 3:

Three year olds and up will dash five furlongs in this $40K-$30K N2L claiming race. I think Chaplin (#2) is going to be sent hard for the lead in this race. He was quick enough to lead through a 20:4 ¼ mile at Keeneland earlier this year when facing significantly better competition. Blinkers go on today in his first start for Carlos David, who has good numbers first off the claim.  He makes sense in this race, while starting for new connections, however, it is worth noting that faltered late last out in a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race. I like the confidence to move him back up the class ladder after being claimed, but I don’t want him anywhere under his 3-1 morning line figure. It’s also worth mentioning that no one has won at this distance at this rail setting when going gate to wire. It’s a small sample size, but horses coming from off the pace have done much better at this setting than any other. As a result, I’ll try the recent maiden breaker, Beware of Pride (#8) as the top pick in this spot. He came with a strong closing kick to win a maiden special weight race at Delaware at this distance in his last start. He’s been a vet scratch twice since winning that race, and both of the races that he did not race in were allowance races. He’s in for a tag today, which might not be the best sign. However, I think he has a strong closing kick and he should get some pace to run into. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares that have never won twice will sprint six furlongs on the main track in this $30K-$25K claiming race. My Honeybunch (#5) drops in class after faltering against better horses here last month. Two starts back, she was a winner with $25K-$20K maiden claiming company. Her maiden score and her effort on May 11th here are solid tries. This is a quick turnaround, but I see her having more upside than others. Frannie Lew (#6) went to the front in a one mile race against tougher horses at Saratoga, but she retreated at the top of the stretch. Her efforts in sprint races are decent enough to compete with this group. She is responsible for the one training win this year for Eduardo Jones, who has 97 losses from 98 starts in 2024. How Sweet She Is (#2) comes back to the dirt after a failed attempt on the Tapeta at Presque Isle in her last shot. She’s in for a tag for the first time and gets Paco Lopez to ride. She makes too much sense to leave out.

Race 5:

A field of nine fillies and mares are signed on for this open $12,500-$10,500 claiming race going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Bizymaline (#7) has three starts and three wins at this condition this year, and she’s never really been tested in any of those three races. Paco Lopez rode her for her last two starts and he’s back aboard again. Her last two races have been contested at this rail setting, so she’s clearly comfortable here. She’s faced several of these runners before and they’ve offered no real challenge. Assuming she’s her consistent self, she should win this race. Latin Nikkita (#1) is the backup in this spot for Kelly Breen. He claimed her in December when she made her first start at Gulfstream after shipping there from Canterbury. With the exception of one race on Tapeta, she wasn’t great in Florida when facing better horses. She gets some class relief for her first start in five months. She might need this race before we see her best, but  I do believe that she has the best chance of anyone in this field to beat the heavy favorite. I don’t give her a huge chance, but if the odds disparity from the morning line widens (9-5 compared to 12-1), I could be more willing to take a little shot. 

Race 6:

The final Pick-3 of the afternoon begins with an optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year olds and up, going six furlongs. This race also kicks off the Cross-Country Pick-5. When comparing the Timeform Figures, Ernie Banker (#3), Palm Island (#5), and John Jay (#6) are all very close. All three runners want to be a part of the early battle, but they could be susceptible to being caught late. I suspect Ernie Banker might need this race after being off for 2 ½ months. John Jay has been a little bit up and down in form. He’s coming in off a strong effort, so he might be in a race where he regresses a bit. Palm Island is making his third career start, but he’s taking a decent up in class after beating a beaten $30K-$25K claiming field last time out. I think all three of those runners are vulnerable on a course that has not been easy to go wire to wire on for the better part of this meet. American Law (#1) is the top pick, making his first start off the Claudio Gonzalez claim today. He was a close second behind My Mamba (#8) last time out. However, that one ran a career top race and I’m not totally sold that he can run back to that race. American Law has better races on his resume and I think the early pace will be a little more aggressive than it was last time out, which I believe should work to his favor. Grouch (#4) is an improving New Jersey bred. He was a winner at this distance two starts back and he ran a solid 4th against a good field at Delaware last time out. Paco Lopez rode him to victory two starts back and he’ll be back in the saddle today.

Race 7, The $100K Oceanport Stakes:

The featured race from New Jersey today is a challenging 1 1/16 race on the turf. I’m wondering how much pressure There Are No Words (#1) is going to apply to Big Everest (#6) in the run into the first turn. Big Everest was able to win three straight stakes races in 2022-2023, leading every step of the way in each one of them. He was a winner on this course in the Cliff Hanger Stakes last May, but he struggled a bit when he was pressured in this race last year. If There Are No Words is still quick enough to hold his rail position, that is going to make things a lot tougher for the morning line favorite. However, they’ve been trying to harness the early quickness that we’ve seen from time to time from There Are No Words.  I suspect they’re not going to let Big Everest walk on the front end. I’ll backup with him in the event that they do, but I think Kubrick (#2) for Chad Brown is the one to beat. He didn’t run his best race in the Poker Stakes, but that race was a bit of a conveyor belt race where no one was making up any real ground from off the pace. His stablemate, Carl Spackler, was 5th in that race and he came back to win the Grade 12 Fourstardave last weekend. Clearly that race had some top notch talent, so this is a definite step down from that race. The plan was to run him in the Lure Stakes two weeks ago, but that race was taken off the turf and this became Plan B. I’m expecting a better effort with an honest tempo in front of him. Highestdistinction (#7)is the other question mark in the race. He was very sharp prior to going on the shelf last fall. Schultz doesn’t have great numbers with runners off the layoff and he was flat in his return when running on the synthetic at Turfway back in March. I have some mixed feelings, but if the 2023 version of him comes back, he’s going to be very tough in this race. 

Race 8:

The day ends with an optional $12,500 claiming/$6,250 starter allowance race going six furlongs. While Lloyd (#5) feels like the clear cut horse to beat in this race, don’t sleep on Power Agenda (#6) making his third start off the layoff for Miguel Penaloza. He was sharp last fall winning three times in four starts at Parx, but he went woefully off form for his next four races. After finishing 10th in a race similar to this at Parx, Penaloza gave him three months off. He returned  with a dull effort, but he seemed to wake up a bit when sprinting on the turf in his most recent start at Penn National. He likes this six furlong distance, winning four of six times. At 20-1 (ML) or better, I think he’s worth thinking about in this race. Lloyd has been extremely sharp in all three starts at this meet. While his effort on June 2nd appeared to come from nowhere, he followed that race up with two more sharp efforts, earning Beyer Speed Figures of 84 in both of those starts. He just missed in both of those races, so he might not be as sharp in a dogfight. Practical Coach (#4) is the other logical player in this spot. His last two dirt races since moving to Silvino Ramirez’s barn have been very sharp. Marin continues to ride well and he;ll get the return call today. 

Meet Statistics/Notes:

Top Pick Winners, 76/350 (21.7%), $537.20, $1.53 ROI

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