Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 7/17/26 – By Eric Solomon

Monmouth Park will kick off Haskell Week with a salute to the richest New Jersey bred of all time, Book ‘Em Danno. The day will be centered around him as he headlines the $200K Mr. Prospector Stakes, which will be the 7th race on this eight race program. Post time for the first race this afternoon is 2:00 PM (EDT).

Keep in mind that the $1,000 Haskell Handicapping Challenge will be offered by Monmouth Park as an online only tournament. Information for registration for that contest is linked below. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/1000-haskell-handicapping-challenge-2/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start the day with a maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies going five furlongs on the turf. The four races carded for the turf this afternoon will run over a course with the rails set at 24 feet. All of the public money is going to be on Love Yourz (#7) for Miguel Clement. After winning 46% of his races here in May and June, Paco Lopez has not ridden here yet this month. He’ll be back in town for the biggest weekend of the year. The works are solid for this NYRA invader and there are things to like. While Girvin only gets 10% winners from his turf sprinters, his firsters in turf sprints have won 16% of the time. Clement has been an excellent debut trainer, so there’s no doubt in my mind that this one will be ready. My cause for pause though is that the runners that Clement has brought to Monmouth have not really lived up to expectations. They’re often well-backed, but he’s only 1-8 here this season and Paco is 0-4 when teaming up with him here. I’ll be defensive with playing her, but at even money (which is where I think she’ll land), I’ll be trying to beat her. Jorge Delgado sends out Legacy Lady (#5), who is a second time starter sired by Highly Motivated. The first two runners in his freshman crop showed some ability on the turf, with a winner and a third place finisher. She showed some speed in a state bred maiden race in New York where they went fast early, but crawled home late. Cutting back to five furlongs and switching surfaces makes sense for her in this spot. Last Hot Lover (#4) is one of two runners in this race that are owned by Stonehedge LLC and trained by Kathleen O’Connell. These fillies have been working in company, and while their drills aren’t especially fast, I do think this filly has a shot here. Cotto has a better track record with O’Connell than Sutherland, who is named to ride the other filly. That tells me that the barn prefers this Cajun Breeze filly. Cajun Breeze is still looking for his first debut winner in a turf sprint as a sire, but his runners have had some near misses. The dam has produced several useful runners so there’s reason to believe that she could be a factor here. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will go one mile on the main track in this $6,250 claiming race. It’s good to see a familiar face back at Monmouth as Floge (#6) returns to her favorite course. She was on an absolute heater here in 2024 when she won five of her seven races that season, including two races at two turns. She’s been based in New York since the start of 2025 and while she’s held her own there, it seems that the drop in class is warranted. She’s only five years old, so I do think she can still compete. I like her chances in this race. La Vecchia Signora (#4) is another one that is trying to find her best form. She came here riding a three race winning streak at Tampa, but she’s struggled in her first three local tries. All three of those efforts came in starter allowance company and her race two back was better than it looked on paper. These are the two I trust in this spot. 

Race 3:

Two year olds will dash five furlongs on the dirt in this maiden special weight race. Even Up (#3) is a full brother to Great Navigator, who is a speedy, stakes-winning, New Jersey bred sprinter. He was well backed last month when debuting in a four horse field, but he was no match for Tipsy Mojo, who was making his second start that day. Eddie Owens had a second time starter score here last weekend who showed some clear improvement, and I’m thinking the same is in line for this gelding. There are definitely things to like with Six Stitches (#5) who is debuting for Juan Avila. He’s had a few snappy drills here over the last few weeks, signaling that he’s ready to go. Carocaro gets 12% debut winners in dirt sprint races. I liked that he sold for $120K in march at the OBS Sale, which is 12 times more than the stud fee for Carocaro. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles over the turf course in this $16K-$14K maiden claiming race. I’ll try Caitlin Said Run (#9) in this wide open affair. She’s sired by Te Atatu, who has foaled a pair of runners who broke their maidens in lower level turf route races. The pairing with Engage might produce a horse that will handle two turns on the turf. Engage was a graded stakes winning sprinter, but his dam finished second in a stakes race on the turf on this course. She’s had some troubled trips in her first two starts. She was declared a non-starter in her debut because of a gate snafu and she was steadied out of the gate when trying the grass in a five furlong race in her last start. She stretches back out to two turns and while her post isn’t great, I do think she is a candidate to move forward. Hop to It (#11) makes a lot of sense if she can draw in. She’s been unlucky in the entry box this week, as she’s stuck on the AE list both in this spot and in another race on Thursday at Colonial. She’s making her third start off a layoff and will be the first choice for Paco Lopez if she does make it into the race. Maxpower (#8) wasn’t terrible in her last start, which was her first try at two turns. Ronda World led and made an early move to get the jump on that field. She’s been better in her last few starts and I think she’s a candidate to improve in this spot today. 

Race 5:

A field of eight will go a mile and 70 yards on the dirt in this beaten $5K claimer that starts the Late Pick-4. Amira Chichakly is searching for her first win of the year as a trainer and while Glint (#5) doesn’t win often, he’s the one getting the most significant class relief. He’s shipping here from New York after a pair of dull efforts in sprint races. He clearly needs the class relief and shipping here makes sense since there’s probably not any condition at Saratoga where he’d fit. There’s a lot of horses here that don’t like to win and that is often a recipe for Paco Lopez to exploit some of the weaknesses in the field. He gets the call on Hedge (#1), who ran in Indiana last week at this level. There’s no doubt this is an ambitious travel schedule for a $5K claimer. However, he’s been close in two of his last three tries and I don’t mind the added distance. On deeper tickets, Mambrino (#4) is worth considering. He’s going to take money after putting up strong figures in one turn races here. There’s a chance that he’s just better than these right now, but it’s worth pointing out that he faded badly in his lone two turn try on the dirt last year.

Race 6:

The Late $3 Pick-3 begins with a maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Chad Brown sends out a pair of runners in this race and I think both of these runners that are based at Saratoga are live in this spot. While most eyes are going to be on Academia (#9), I think Asset Light (#8) is the one to bet on in this spot. Her full sister was a maiden winner at two turns on the turf at Churchill. She debuted on the dirt in a sprint at Aqueduct. The winner came back to be 4th in a Grade 3 race and the runner-up, who is her stablemate, came back to break her maiden and score in a N1X allowance race. She wants to be forwardly placed in a race where there isn’t a ton of true speed. I think she can outrun Olatz (#6) into the first turn and if that’s the case, I trust her to keep finding. Academia is worth using as a backup. She just missed in her last start while getting a less than perfect stretch run. Her stablemate was looking for a way out, and while Manny Franco didn’t open the door, he also didn’t slam it shut. She was jostled a bit and lost a little momentum. She did battle back and finished well to be second. She had the rail that day and now is stuck on the outside, so she’ll have to prove that she can handle a trip that might be less than ideal in the early stages. Saffie Joseph shows up with Sweet Science (#7) in this race. Perhaps she was meant to accompany Skippylongstocking, who shows up in the Monmouth Cup tomorrow. However, the fact that she’s coming here tells me that she’s probably better than what she showed in her first two starts. Neither trip was very good. She has been working better lately though and could be a factor with this group.

Race 7, The $200K Mr. Prospector Stakes:

Book ‘Em Danno (#3) is the headliner of the day in this six furlong dash. He’s an extremely talented, Grade 1 winning sprinter who has banked over two million dollars in his career. He’s a perfect 3-3 here at Monmouth and a perfect 4-4 when going six furlongs. He’s coming off a win in the True North on Belmont Day where he bested the Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner, Bentornato. There’s not many hikes in his game, but at 1-5, which is likely the number he’ll be here, he’s not a mortal lock. I’ll swing for a little value and try Quint’s Brew (#2) as the top pick. He’s another runner that knows how to win races, scoring in 8 of 14 career tries. He’s also perfect at this distance, but he’ll be getting a class test here. While I do think seven furlongs might be his best trip, he can hang with the favorite when he’s going well. 

Race 8:

We’ll close out with a five furlong turf sprint for $25K-$20K N3L claimers. I think Paco Lopez has some vulnerable mounts on this card, but I do think he’s going to be very tough in this race. He gets the call on Identity Crisis (#1), who is the speed of the speed in this dash. He’s moving up in class after clearing the N2L condition in his last start. He took it to that beaten $16K-$14K claiming field from the jump and never looked back. He was claimed by Kelly Breen, who spots him well despite taking on tougher foes in this race. The backup for me in this race will be Seasonal Love (#2), who is getting back on the turf after struggling in an allowance race at Delaware that was taken off the turf. He was competitive in two turf races with N2L claimers last summer at Evangeline, so there’s reason to believe that he can compete at this level today. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 43/167 (25.7%), $240.30 ($1.44 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet