Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 7/25/25 – By Eric Solomon

With the 2025 Haskell in the rear view mirror, the Monmouth meet carries on with an eight race, Friday afternoon card. Chad Brown, who assumed command as the leading trainer at the meet after a four win day on Saturday, will be represented with a pair of runners in the maiden special weight race that will start the program. As per usual on Fridays, the rails will be set at 36 feet and the first post race of the afternoon will be at 2:00 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

The day starts with an interesting maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Seven are entered in this spot, with the leading trainer, Chad Brown, sending out a pair. While I’ll be using both, I’m interested in MIldred Pierce (#7) as the top pick in this race. She took a decent amount on debut at Keeneland this spring and she ran okay in that race. She came back at Delaware after scratching from a race at Laurel that was taken off the turf. She drew wide in that race and Victor Carrasco took her to the back of the field, to try to save ground while a fast pace was being set up front. She made a solid middle move to advance along the rail before having to tap on the brakes in traffic. She got through, but had to change course in the stretch, all while Oppose (#6) got the jump on her and made a run for the lead, only to lose by a neck. Jimmy Toner tried to run her at Saratoga and Ellis last week, but she didn’t draw in at the Spa and the Ellis race was taken off the turf. On paper, there’s not nearly as much signed on for this race, but she showed at Keeneland that she has more tactical speed than she displayed last time. I think she’s sitting on a bigger effort in her third career try. Brown has been so good in these races at this meet that it is hard to ignore. He sends out both Channel Check (#2) and Pretty Picture (#4) in this spot. Channel Check was 6th here in a much tougher race in May. She was beaten by a stablemate, Growth Trajectory, who went right into stakes company after that win. She draws closer to the rail, so I think she’ll be closer to the front end in this race as well. Samy Camacho gets the return call here as Samuel Marin gets the assignment on the Brown firster, Pretty Picture. Coming off a dazzling ride to defeat a 1-9 favorite aboard longshot Surface to Air in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup last weekend (which was the first graded stakes win in his career), Marin has been riding with supreme confidence lately. He’s won a third of races at Monmouth when riding for Brown, as he continues to get more opportunities. He’s riding this Munnings filly that has been based here and touts a very familiar work pattern for Brown’s first time starters. 

Race 2:

The first race of the season for two year old maiden claimers will go five furlongs on the main track, with all seven fillies being offered for a $25K tag. The two runners on the inside have racing experience for barns that have had success with debuting two year olds and the five horses breaking outside of them are racing for the first time. The top pick for me will be Nanny’s Dime (#7) on the outside for Jose Delgado. He hasn’t had great success with debuting over the last several years, but it’s not like his horses are running poorly. He’s had a pair of two year old first timers finish second at this meet already and four of his seven runners have finished in the money. The works are competitive for this level from this Mor Spirit filly that only cost $5K last October. Mor Spirit gets 10% debut winners overall, but that number goes up to 14% with debut runners at the maiden claiming level. The dam has had four horses make it to the track and the two that debuted at lower levels ran credible races. At this level, I’d prefer to bet a horse that was intended to be a claiming type runner as opposed to horses that might have had higher expectations.  I’ll also use Radar Loop (#3) on the A line in this race. She’s one of two homebred runners that Michael Dini is debuting for Ballybrit Stable LLC in this race. This filly is by Summer Front, who gets 12% winners on debut. While many of those winners have been on turf or synthetic, there are still a fair amount of runners scoring on the dirt. She’s the second horse to run from his Empire Maker dam who was competitive in her debut race. As a backup, I’ll use Noon Time Tide (#1). Neither runner made an impression on debut, but this homebred took money on debut. The dam has produced some useful runners that have run well here. The fact that they’re entering her with a $25K tag after one start isn’t great, but I do think there is a chance she’ll improve enough to be in the conversation at this level. 

Race 3:

We’ll go back to the turf for a five furlong dash for fillies and mares in open $12,500-$10,500 claiming company. Bedtime Story (#2) is a fascinating runner in this race, and I’m not quite sure how heavy she’ll be backed by the public. She’s a perfect 6-6 on the Tapeta at Gulfstream, with all of those races coming between December of 2022 and November of 2023. She missed about 15 months and then changed barns, moving to New York to run for Robert Johnston. She’s been flat in her four races there, but three were on the dirt. Her only turf try was against a solid optional claiming/allowance group at Saratoga. This is a massive drop in class for her. She’s 0-3 on the turf, but she’s faced really good horses in those races. In her last start prior to her injury, she finished 4th at this distance at Gulfstream, finishing ahead of Future is Now, who was the winner of the Caress Stakes at Saratoga last week. She’s probably not the horse she used to be, but when looking at the competition, she should be good enough to beat this group. The Furminator (#5) is the obvious backup, getting back on the turf today. Her two races at this distance on the grass were good, winning at Penn National and finishing second at this level at the Meadowlands last year. She was a non-factor in a race taken off the grass at this level when making her first start of the year last month. Paco Lopez takes the mount and I’m hopeful that will keep the price on the top pick from going too low here. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will go 1 mile and 70 yards on the dirt in this beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming race. All seven runners here qualified under the N2L condition. This feels like a race where you’re going to have to hold your noise and accept some of the shortcomings from somebody. I landed on Profit Hunter (#6) in this race, coming off a strong effort at long odds at this level when sprinting last time out. She had fairly significant trouble lines in her two starts prior to her last. He had a clean trip last out and he ran his best race on dirt to date. I’m not completely convinced that he wants to go this far, but he did show that he can pass runners which many of his rivals have struggled to do. Both Crossati (#4) and Little Squeeze (#7) were claimed at this level last out when beaten by a runaway winner at short odds. Crossati was the better horse last time and she figures to be the better of the two today. Her last two have been sharp and after pairing those Beyers, she figures to be the one that is most likely to take a step forward today. You Know Me (#1) is dropping in class after some dull efforts lately. She has four straight races where she’s been beaten by double digit lengths. However, she does have decent early speed and the rail post does fit her for the race that she wants to run. The change of scenery and class relief might do her well. 

Race 5:

We’ll start the Late Pick-4 with another $12,500-$10,500 claiming race for fillies and mares, this one going one mile on the turf. Going into this afternoon, there have been 16 races contested over this course when the rails are out at 36 feet. Seven of them have been won in gate to wire fashion and another seven were won by horses that stalk the pace. That should bode well for White Lilacs (#6), shipping here from Laurel for Michael Pino. Early speed is the name of her game. She was a gate to wire winner here on Haskell Day two years ago when the rails were all the way down at 0 feet. She came back to  get nailed on the wire in a strong N2X allowance. After leaving the Mid-Atlantic, she went to Turfway and ran okay there before going to the sidelines for over a year. She’s had three races since returning, winning once at Laurel. She went fast on a good course and got tired late there last out when facing starter allowance company. She drops in class and returns here where she has a class edge. She may have to worry about Magic Eight Ball (#5) to her inside trying to go with her early. However, I trust Paco Lopez in these situations, so I’m willing to eat chalk with her here. Pageant Princess (#8) is the backup for me in this spot. She makes her first start of the year for Kathleen DeMasi, who has good numbers off these longer layoffs. I don’t love her outside draw and that fact that her starts in the last two years have been very sporadic. She has worked well enough locally, and if she is able to be the same horse that she was last June, she has a legitimate chance to run down the favorite. However, I fear that the risk may outweigh the reward, assuming the odds differential between her and Paco’s mount stays at a similar ratio to the morning line price. 

Race 6:

Eight runners will go six furlongs in this $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming race. Mo Rum (#4) is the one to beat in this race for Lindsay Schultz. She gave him a little extra time off after a taxing Oaklawn meet. He cleared the N2L condition there in February and then went on to lose his next four starts after the Schultz claim. He was facing much better fields than what he’s up against here. He may have gotten a little tired last out when competing against a short field. The backup for me in this spot is Immense Faith (#7) He has six times as many second and third place finishes as he does wins, so he might be a better play underneath in the vertical exotics. He’s another runner that prefers to be forward in a race that doesn’t have a ton of early pace. He could be another horse that could move forward here.

Race 7:

The final turf contest of the day is a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. All 12 runners entered (a maximum of nine will run) qualified under the N2L condition. Beckett’s Map (#1) is the play for me here, going from an outside draw to the rail in this race. She has more tactical speed than she showed last time out when getting stuck with post 10. She was farther off the pace than she’s used to, but she came with a solid bid to get into 6th that day. She was sharper when she was closer to the pace in her debut at Gulfstream in April. Chantal Sutherland has made the most of the limited opportunities that she’s had at this meet. Unbounded Movement (#9) is coming out of the same race here three weeks ago. She drops in class after a dull effort that day. Her two prior turf tries at Gulfstream were better than her last. The outside post in this race is less than ideal, but if she can move forward off that last start, she’s going to be tough with these. On deeper tickets, I’ll try Spooky Gal (#2), getting back on the turf after a dismal showing on a muddy dirt course at Penn National. Her lone effort on turf came at Delaware two back where she had a few different spots of trouble. The dull break was on her, but being forced to steady was not. She faced a solid allowance group that day, so this is definite class relief today. 

Race 8:

We’ll close out the Friday card with a $6,250 claiming race going one mile on the dirt. Five of the eight runners in this field are coming off a winning effort. Of those five runners, only English Painter (#6) was a win in open company. The other four were winners in restricted claiming races. To be fair, English Painter has been beating up on some soft fields that have been adversely affected by scratches. That being said, he’s handled his business professionally each time. He’s been a popular face at the claim box, and he’s running back for a barn that has been sharp of late at this meet. While Paco Lopez landed on Admiral’s Wave (#5) to his inside, I think he has the class edge. Admiral’s Wave was an easy winner with $8K-$7K N4L claimers in his last start. He has tactical speed and with Lopez on his back, he’s all but guaranteed to be in a good spot in the early stages of this one. I expect that he’ll be hanging around in the late stages as well. While it’s not particularly clever, these feel like the two runners that will decide the nightcap.

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 56/246 (22.8%), $483.20, $1.96 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)