Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 8/21/26 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll start the week with a six race card at Monmouth Park this afternoon. If you like turf sprint races, this card is for you as four of the six races on the card are slated to be at five furlongs on the grass. First post this afternoon is set for 2:00 PM (EDT).

The $800 Travers Day Monmouth Park/Saratoga Contest will be the last handicapping contest at Monmouth during the live thoroughbred meet this year. That will be next Saturday and the link  for registration and contest information is below. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/800-travers-day-monmouth-saratoga-contest-4/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race for fillies and mares going five furlongs on the turf. The rails will be set at 36 feet for the four races carded for the lawn today. I think this is a tough spot to play against the favorite, Gold Stamp (#5). She has been knocking on the door in similar races. While I don’t love the idea of taking a short price on a horse that has been a beaten favorite in her last two starts, I do think this is a softer group than she’s seen in her last few tries. Lady Hathor (#4) is racing out of condition in this race, since she’s still eligible for N2L company. However, she is coming off a strong effort when going 5 ½ furlongs here last week. She was gaining a lot of ground late after losing some ground after the break. I could see her moving forward a bit or running back to her last effort here. Shadyside (#2) is an odd entrant in this race. She tried the turf for the first time when going two turns in her last start. She was wide and her legs were definitely getting heavy in the late stages. She cuts back to a sprint here though. Both of her wins came in one turn races on the dirt. I’d like her more if this was a 5 ½ furlong race, but I do think she’s worth covering here. 

Race 2:

There’s only five runners entered in this $40K-$30K maiden claiming contest, but this figures to be a competitive group that is hard to separate. Three of the five runners are first time starters. Two of those runners are from dams that have foaled a Grade 1 winning sprinter, but it’s not a great sign to see either of those runners debuting for a tag. Excellion (#2) is a half to Doppleganger, who was the winner of the Grade 1 Carter in 2023. Yauprissy (#4) is a half to Nutella Fella, who was the winner of the Grade 1 Hopeful in that same year. Yauprissy was sired by Yaupon, who has strong numbers with first time starters. However, they paid $140K for this colt who is debuting with a $40K price tag attached to his name. He’s the longest shot on the board, in part because he has continually been outworked by his stablemate, Shozan (#3) in the mornings. While that one has two full siblings that have early speed, neither of those runners won on debut. He’s the firster that I think I trust the most here, however, I’m not really high on any of these three. Most of my tickets will go through the two experienced runners, and I’ll give the edge to Scrambler (#1) here. He is making his first start since March when he finished off the board for the third straight time in Florida. He did show improvement in that race though, taking a step forward after pairing his first two Beyers at Tampa. He drops in class and has since been gelded.  I’m thinking he’ll be finishing the best in this race. Cuddy’s Lucky (#5) was claimed for $40K two back on a day where he finished 4th at this level, beaten only a half of a length though. He tried two turns and was outclassed in that race. Kelly Breen cuts him back to one turn while keeping him at the same level of competition. 

Race 3:

While the value will be scant, I’m not trying to beat Allison Park (#1) in this optional $40K claiming/$25K starter allowance. She has two wins and a second in three starts at this meet. She was an easy winner at this level of competition in her last start. She was two lengths better than True Spun (#5), who is back again today. I figure that Immortalove (#6) could make her work for the lead in this race, but she didn’t seem to be as quick on the turf as she is on the dirt when trying this distance on the grass at Tampa. Either way, I think Allison Park  can sustain the pressure for this distance and notch another victory on this course. True Spun could benefit from some hard pressure on the favorite in the first quarter mile. However, she doesn’t seem to be fast enough to beat the favorite on the square. She’ll need help in this race, but she makes the most sense as the alternative.  

Race 4:

New Jersey breds will sprint six furlongs in this $100K N2L claiming race. The N1X allowance race for state bred dirt sprinters didn’t fill for the NJ Thoroughbred Festival Card on Sunday, so this feels like a logical alternative for runners that would be way outclassed in the state bred sprint handicap on that card. Holiday Express (#1) was no match for Superfractor at this condition earlier in the meet, but this is not nearly as tough of a race as that race on 5/30 was. He’s been facing tougher company and has had the misfortune of running into some horses that have put together massive efforts. He cuts back to a sprint after a pair of two turn tries on the dirt this summer. He’s getting serious class relief after losing at long odds in open allowance company at Delaware in his most recent start. I think his tactical speed is a positive weapon for him in this race. Sir Newtons Laws (#2) changes barns and adds Lasix for the first time today. He was rolling late when the early pace fell apart in an allowance contest here on Haskell Day. It’s worth noting that race was delayed for several minutes due to the weather and it as the first race contested on a sloppy and sealed course that day. He did finish in front of the top pick three back, which was the last time he sprinted on a fast track. Lasix gets added for the first time today. Doin This (#6) came back with a sharper effort last time out after faltering in the slop two back. He posted a large figure improvement in his most recent start, so the potential for a bounce is on the table. However, he is also an improving four year old from a barn that has been heating up at the back end of this meet. He’s worth keeping on as a saver. 

Race 5:

The $5 Late Double will consist of a pair of five furlong sprints. This one is a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares. No Difference (#3) figures to be a short price in this race. She has the best figures by a decent margin, but both of those big numbers came in route races against better in New York. She gets serious class relief while making her first start for a new barn. This distance is a major question though. She was too good not to be on the A line in terms of coverage, however, I do want to examine the possibility that she comes up empty. In that case, I’m hoping for a better effort from Authentic Lady (#2) in her third career start today. She wasn’t terrible in her debut at Laurel when going 5 ½ furlongs with $35K-$25K maiden claimers. She moved up in class to face $40K-$30K maiden claimers here when trying a mile for the first time. She was empty for the stretch run in that spot though. While the recent form indicates a downturn for April Spun (#6), she has efforts that are good enough to be in the mix at this level. She was a close second in her last two starts. Her latest effort was dull, so there will need to be some type of form reversal to get back on track. She figures to offer better value today than she did in her last two tries. 

Race 6:

We’ll close out the card with $12,500-$10,500 claimers going five furlongs on the lawn. I think this a great spot for the 10 year old gelding, Gins and Tins (#8) to find the Winner’s Circle for the 11th time. He’s been a little flat in his first two starts of the year at Penn National. He comes back to his favorite course and he reunites with Panagiotis Synnefias, who had him in sharp form last summer. This is his third start off the layoff and he’s facing several horses that are better at longer distances. Luis Rivera Jr. has been red hot and he’ll get the call for the first time today. The backup for me is Curious Soul (#5), who was better than the top pick at Penn two back. He was not great on the dirt in a race that was originally scheduled for the turf in his last start. He ran well enough at this distance to think that he could compete with these on his best day.

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 63/239 (26.4%), $374.10 ($1.57 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet