Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 5/9/26 – By Eric Solomon

The 2026 Season at Monmouth Park opens this Saturday with an eight race card. After an unusually harsh winter at the Jersey Shore, there were not any races carded for the turf today. Only one race is carded on the lawn tomorrow, so it looks like they’ll be easing their way on to the turf at the start of this meet. There are few new wagers to check out for the upcoming season. The Late Pick-3 will have a $3 Base Wager and the Late Double will have a $5 Base Wager. Both bets offer players a reduced, 15% takeout. On days with three or more races on the turf, there will also be a $3 All-Turf Pick-3, which also offers the lowered 15% takeout. 

The Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell is scheduled for July 19th, which is always a focal point for three year olds in the summer. Journalism was the winner of that thrilling race last year. Paco Lopez is back riding here in New Jersey and he’ll be looking for his 13th riding title here. Samuel Marin, who is coming off another tremendous meet at Tampa Bay Downs, will be his main competition. Jorge Delgado narrowly beat out Chad Brown for the leading trainer at the meet last season. Brown had a lot of success here last season, sending out 64 starters and scoring with 20 of them. He has a first time starter in the nightcap. Delgado starts off this meet by sending out a pair of runners in the second race today.

Monmouth Park has carved out a niche as one of the premier handicapping tournament hosts in the country. Their signature event is the $2K Pick Your Prize Handicapping Challenge, which will be held on 6/13 on the Haskell Preview Day Card for the first time. There is a qualifier being held today, and the sign up link for that is below. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/300-nhc-qualifier-3/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

We’ll start the meet off with a $7,500 N2L claiming race for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles. So So (#2) with Wesley Ho riding feels like the one to beat. He broke his maiden at the beginning of the year on the turf at Tampa in a $16K maiden claimer. He dropped to a similar level there in March while moving to the dirt. He proved he can be competitive on this surface at this level. He had wide trips in his two best races. He seemed to be uncomfortable when setting the pace two back though. With the stretch out sprinter, More Power (#6) shipping here, I think he should be able to work out a nice trip, while stalking the pace. Duck Duck Goose (#1) is a three year old that hasn’t run fast enough to win at this level yet. However, Paco Lopez does take the mount for Kelly Breen, and he’s making his third start off the layoff after struggling at seven furlongs when facing straight three year olds in open $16K company. His best effort came when going two turns in maiden breaking score at Delaware in the fall. If any other rider was in the saddle, I think he would most likely be double digit odds in this spot. He’s listed at 7-2, which feels way too low, but we’ll see how steep the Paco Lopez tax is from the jump at this meet. More Power is a bit of a wild card, taking a significant drop in class after struggling with $25K N2L claimers at Will Rogers Downs last week. He’d be shipping from Oklahoma to race here seven days later if he does start in this race. Quick turnarounds are not uncommon for his new trainer, Wayne Potts. If he’s competing, he’d be trying two turns for the first time while making his 8th career start. He could have an uncontested lead, which could make him a threat in this spot. 

Race 2:

$10K maiden claimers will go six furlongs here. I think the leading trainer at Monmouth in 2025, Jorge Delgado, has a pretty strong hand in this race. He sends out both Lumber Legacy (#4) and Captain Oats (#5), and while I expect a shorter price on the latter runner, I prefer Lumber Legacy  on top. He’s been working well since joining this barn after his last start at Gulfstream in January. He showed a bit of speed before fading in that spot. He ran well at seven furlongs there last summer and I think this a good spot for him to make his first start for a barn that was very sharp early on here last season. Captain Oats debuted on the Tapeta in South Florida in a $17,500-$16,000 maiden claiming dash last month. He shared common ownership with the top pick as both runners shipped here and worked out over this course last weekend. He wasn’t as quick in that drill as his stablemate, which could be something to keep in mind. His effort was good enough last out to think that he could improve in this spot. Final Joke (#6) cuts back to a six furlong sprint after a respectable try in a one mile contest with $20K maiden claimers at Aqueduct last month. I think Danny Gargan recognizes that it’s going to be hard for this Practical Joke colt to break his maiden there, especially with the Belmont Meet starting up last week. He’s a definite fit, but I do think this distance might be a tough short for him. 

Race 3:

I really like this optional claiming/starter allowance spot for Pogi (#4) today. He’s a grizzled New Jersey bred that doesn’t win a ton, but he often shows up, especially when competing here at Monmouth. He ran a huge race in open allowance company to be a close second here on Haskell Day last summer. After leaving here after running 4th in a state bred stakes at the end of August, he wintered at Parx where he was claimed a handful of times and his form was generally up and down. He was claimed by Silvinio Ramirez, who had a productive meet here last season. He has strong numbers first off the claim, in part because he finds clever spots that fit his horses well. I think this eight year old gelding starts off the meet the right way. I’m hopeful that the bulk of the wagering money will be focused on Gowokegobroke (#2) with Paco Lopez in the irons. He was in good form at Tampa, but after Patrick McBurney claimed him, he struggled quite a bit when facing better starter allowance fields. He drops in class, and is running with the tag, since he doesn’t have a start for a $6,250 tag or less. He makes sense in a spot to try to reverse his fortune, but I think the price might be lower than I’m comfortable with. 

Race 4:

The Late Pick-5 will start with a $25K-$20K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. While I hesitated to take the Paco Lopez tax in the last race, I’m willing to pay it with Clean Winner (#4) in this spot. She is coming off two rough races where she had trouble in both. She struggled to keep pace while battling five wide in maiden special weight company two back. The final outcome looks worse as she was checked hard at the top of the stretch. She was falling back at the time and while that incident didn’t affect her placing in that race, it definitely makes the race look worse on paper. The trouble line in her last start said “slammed start” and that might not have been strong enough when looking at the break from the head on shot. She rushed up to try to contend, but came up empty. Her three previous dirt efforts in the fall would all be good enough to win this race. I trust Paco to keep her out of trouble, which is something she desperately needs right now. 

Race 5:

I think there’s a price horse that might be worth a look in this beaten $5K claiming race. Venezuelan Triumph (#2) goes for Pompeyo Gomez in this race, and while it’s plain to see that three of his last four starts have been abysmal, he does have some quality efforts that would likely keep him in the conversation here. His race at Parx three back and his three efforts here in dirt races carded for the main track were pretty solid. There is no early speed in this race and he runs his best races when he’s near the front end. Eric Cancel is a capable rider that should be able to dictate the tempo here. I think the return to Monmouth in his second start off a layoff, should help his cause. Samuel Marin gets the assignment aboard Crypto Man (#3) and there’s a lot to like here. He came to Monmouth last summer for Alexis Delgado and ran two big races in back to back weeks, scoring in his first local start and running a close second in a tougher spot. He went off form a bit after leaving town, but his last two starts at Tampa paint the picture of a horse that is getting back to running better races. He’s another runner that figures to move up while coming back to the Jersey Shore. 

Race 6:

I thought this optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance race came up quite strong today. My strategy for this race is to take a stand against the Jersey bred, Protected (#6). As a fan, I really like this horse and I thought his efforts at Aqueduct over the winter were strong. He came here last spring and made a name for himself with two strong wins in state bred company after breaking his maiden in open company in New York. He tailed off in form at the end of the meet, but was sharp in his first three tries as a four year old. He moves into a new barn, and Carlos Martin doesn’t have great numbers with new acquisitions or horses coming off 2-6 month layoffs. I’m not sure we’re going to see his best today. David Jacobsen has a pair of runners that are worth considering in this race. Much like with More Power in the first race, Turn Up the Trees (#10) competed in a race in the Midwest last Saturday. He put in a strong effort in a six furlong sprint at this level at Oaklawn, finishing fourth, beaten less than two lengths. Jacobsen has been known for making quick turnarounds with his horses in the past, but not as much lately. I don’t know if the intent is to have him compete in this spot or not. It’s also worth pointing out that one of the other main pace factors in this race, Charlie’s Express (#8), is cross-entered in a different race here tomorrow. If he runs, I’m going to use him on the A line. I also think his stablemate, Funny Uncle (#1) has a live look in this spot. He was in sharp form early on in the year at Aqueduct. His last two starts weren’t his best though, finishing 4th in New York and most recently at Keeneland. He’ll be making his second start for Jacobsen in this race. I’d like him more if he was facing both Charlie’s Express and his stablemate, but if two of the speed horses in this race defect, I do think that will make his task a bit harder. Executive Order (#2) could be the horse that would benefit if those two runners stay in the barn today. There are gaps in his form lines, but when he’s right and competing at an appropriate level, he’s dangerous. He’s making his first start for a new barn and he’s making his first start of 2026 in this race. If inside speed starts off well, he’d be worth upgrading. Doroteo (#4) likes to run from off the pace. He makes his first start for Alexis Delgado after a pair of third place finishes at this level at Tampa. The six furlong distance of this race is likely his best. He deployed more tactical speed earlier in his career, but that hasn’t been as present in his repertoire of late. He had a snappy workout over this course last week, so perhaps we could see that kind of effort return. 

Race 7:

The first race of the season exclusively for New Jersey breds is a conditioned allowance race going 5 ½ furlongs on the main track. It feels like this condition was written for Cairo Surprise (#9). He’s making his 7th career start this afternoon for Cathal Lynch and he’s never turned in a bad race. He cleared the open N1X condition at Laurel in February and he ran a huge race in his first try on turf there in open N2X company last time out. He crossed the finish line first, a nose ahead of his rival, but his number was taken down for swerving in at the 1/16 pole. He has two wins on dirt and two second place finishes on this oval at the start of his career. I think he’s in the best form and should score in this race today. I’ll look to the inside to find another Laurel invader as the backup for me in this race. Holiday Express (#1) is a four year old gelding for Ben Perkins Jr., who is coming back to Monmouth after a pair of disappointing defeats. He lost his last two starts by double digit lengths when facing open N1X competition in Maryland. One of those races came at two turns and the other came in his first start five months. He drops into state bred company while making his second start off the layoff. I do expect to see a more competitive effort from him today. 

Race 8:

Opening Day will conclude with a strong maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares going six furlongs. Italy (#4) is a first time starter and the lone four year old, who is facing a half dozen three year old fillies. Chad Brown also has a first time starter in this race, Senza Piu (#7). This is worth mentioning because Brown debuted 8 runners at the 2025 meet here at Monmouth and five of them were winners in that first start, including all three of his debuting runners on the dirt. The other foal to race from this dam, Senza Parole, was a debut winner and was most recently second when facing N3X allowance company at Keeneland. While there are a lot of signs pointing in her favor, the one thing that is concerning to me is seeing Samuel Marin take the mount on Mon Reve (#6) instead. He was getting a lot of the top local mounts for Brown last season, so seeing Jose Gomez get the assignment suggests to me that this one might not be as good as some of the experienced runners in this race. I’ll use her as a backup, as I’m siding with Mon Reve. She was really good in her debut at Keeneland where she finished 3rd. Victoria Oliver does not have great numbers with firsters, and while her numbers with second timer starters aren’t great either, I do think this filly has a big chance in this race. Paco Lopez gets the call on Ms. Sophistication (#1) for Jorge Duarte and Colts Neck Stables. She’s been sidelined since a dull effort in her second career start last fall at Aqueduct. Her debut there was much sharper though and she’s been working well over the training track at Colts Neck. This filly sold for $525K in May of last year, so there have been high expectations from the jump. 

Data for Winners Last Start

A data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners were very strong here last season with 18 of 68 winners last running in Oldsmar, Florida. NYRA runners that are showing up here have not been faring as well as they were a few years ago