Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 7/12/25 – By Eric Solomon

We’re one week away from Haskell Day at Monmouth Park, which is always the signature day of thoroughbred racing in New Jersey. With both Sovereignty and Baeza eyeing up the Saratoga races, we’ll see how this Grade 1 contest is going to come together. It appears that Journalism and Gosger are setting up for a Preakness rematch. That race along with the 13 others will be drawn on Tuesday. Today, we’ll have a nine race program highlighted by the $100K Blue Sparkler Stakes for three year old fillies sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. First post for what should be another beautiful day is scheduled for 12:50 (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

The day begins with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course. The rails are set at 24 feet for the five races carded for the turf today. I’m not sold on the Shug McGaughey runner, Pass Failed (#1), going from a route at this level to a sprint today. In fact this race feels ripe for a longshot, so I’m going to roll the dice with Aerialist (#3). There’s no way to sugarcoat the fact that she’s been abysmal in her five career starts on the turf. She’s the first foal to race from a dam ran in claiming races, most of which were on the turf. She’s sired by Daredevil, who has gotten 15% winners in turf sprints with horses he’s sired. Speed has been a valuable weapon on this course and I expect this filly to be on the lead when they bend out of the shoot. I think she’s faster than either Wildcat Fire (#6) or Bonita Diamond (#8) early on. She’s fallen apart once she was headed in all five races on the dirt, all of which came at Aqueduct. She’s getting class relief while switching surfaces. She must have shown something to see for $100K as a two year old in training last year, so I’m banking that the surface switch can help her finish this race stronger than she’s been finishing her dirt races. Landofhopesandreams (#2) had a wide journey at Penn National last month. She’s now making her third start off the layoff for Kathleen DeMasi. I think the distance is a good fit for her and I do see a scenario where Bonita Diamond forces the issue early on with the top pick, setting the table for a horse like this to come from off the pace. Wildcat Fire (#6) ran well to be second at this level in her last try. Her effort in that race was closer to her two synthetic sprints in late 2023 in Florida. She showed a different dimension last out, racing from a little farther behind than she’s been accustomed to. I think that kind of trip could play here. 

Race 2:

Six are entered in this competitive $10K maiden claiming race going six furlongs. Jace Is No Joke (#2) ran a competitive race here two starts back in a $16K-$14K maiden claiming that was taken off the turf. He tried the grass when going two turns last month. He showed a little speed before he backed up to 5th. He drops in class and moves back to sprinting on the dirt, which feels like what he is going to do best. I think he’ll offer better value than the class dropping Azteca Warrior (#6). He is the favorite on the morning line after facing a pair of runaway winners, both trained by Chad Brown, in maiden special weight company in his last two starts. He showed a little speed in both of those races, but at the end of the day, he wasn’t very competitive. He drops right to the bottom after those races, bypassing some other spots for higher claiming tags. I’m not sure this is the horse that Flying B Thoroughbreds thought they had when they sent him here from Oklahoma after a solid debut at Will Rogers Downs in May. He’s likely going to be the quickest from the gate in this race, so he has that going for him. He’s a B line play for me in this spot. 

Race 3:

Open $12,500-$10,500 claimers will sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in this race. While several runners went to the front in their last starts, I don’t think any are as quick as One Whirlwind Ride (#3) in the early stages. I expect him to be setting the pace, while horses like Gins and Tins (#4), Point Liam (#6), and Vamos Viejo (#9) will be in chase mode. While I like One Whirlwind Ride a decent amount in this spot, especially while getting back to this distance on the turf, I do worry that he’ll come up a bit short at the end, as that has been his M.O. I’m using him on the A line as the horses that have come to New Jersey to Faith Wilson from Bruno Tessore in Florida, have been successful here thus far. However, I think a horse like Vamos Viejo has a good shot to gun him down in the stretch with the right trip. He was very keen when making his first start in three months when he last started at Laurel. He had a comfortable lead after clicking off some aggressive fractions while on a loose lead before being caught late. He was claimed out of that optional claiming/starter allowance contest and he returns for the same $12,500 tag for his new barn.  He was very sharp in three races at this distance on this course last summer. I think he’ll appreciate the minor break after the Championship Meet at Gulfstream wrapped up. I like him at this level and I think he’ll be more relaxed in this spot today. Point Liam is moving up in class for this race, but he reminded us last time when facing a $16K-$14K N3X claiming field, that sprinting on the turf is what he wants to do. His number was put up when his rival, ridden by Paco Lopez, carried him well out into the center of the course. He’s another runner that ran solid races on this course last season and his last race was reminiscent of those efforts. Running back to that last race, puts him in the conversation once again with this field. 

Race 4:

Nine two year old fillies will sprint five furlongs on the main track in this maiden special weight race. Both Only You (#4) and Better With Vino (#6) were entered as MTO runners in a race at this condition on the turf yesterday, however, both of them scratched as that race was run as intended. Five of the nine runners are making their debuts here. Three others finishing 2nd, 5th, and 7th, in a race on 6/21 at this level and the runner up from a 6/1 maiden race will round out the field. I think the debut effort from Stormy City (#3) last month is worth noting.  She kissed the break when starting from the rail and spotted the field several lengths. She moved into a forward position like a good runner and made headway on the race winner before tiring late. I do like that she held off the third place finisher, who was coming at her with a full head of steam. When Leon shifted her out to engage that rival, she fought back and held on for place. She has three works since then, with the last being more serious than the other two. Eddie Owens continues to run this Jersey bred filly against open company and I think he gets rewarded here. I’m a little fascinated with Spectacular Grey (#5) for Alexis Delgado. Prior to claiming a horse here in May and running him back last month, this trainer has not started a horse in North America since March of 2021. This Not This Time filly cost $127K and she’s been working well enough on the main track to catch some eyes in the AM. Shemight be better suited to turf, as per her pedigree, but the fact that she’s starting at 9-2 for essentially an unknown trainer, tells me that this one has some buzz. Rosies Cornet (#9) is one of two runners Jose Sanchez is sending out for David Gruskos. She ran well to get into second when making her debut. She broke from the rail that day, so the outside post might be a better fit for her second go. She worked well last week, signalling that she could improve in this spot as well. 

Race 5:

New Jersey breds will go one mile on the turf in this maiden special weight contest which ends the Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 and starts the Late Pick-5. None of the longshots are jumping off the page, so I do see this as a two horse race between the shorter prices. I like Chaz the Chief (#2) the best though. He ran a pair of credible turf route races last fall with open maiden claiming company. Carlos David tried to get him on the turf at the end of May, but that race was switched to the main track. He had a lousy trip, but was never involved. I think that race was designed to get him more fit for this spot. I think he gets the job done here. Happy Offering (#5) finished well in front of him in that race when making his debut for Chuck Spina. He came back to run six furlongs in a race carded for the dirt where he wasn’t as effective. He’s bred to handle the turf, as the dam did her work overseas on the lawn. Qurbaan was a multiple Grade 2 winner on the turf and Grade 1 placed. He has already foaled a Grade 3 winner on the grass with limited opportunities. He’s going to take the bulk of the money with Paco Lopez in the irons, but I think he may need this start before maybe graduating next time out. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-4 begins with a $5K starter allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. Four of the seven runners in this race have win totals in the double digits. I see Sandpiper Memories (#7) as a vulnerable favorite in this race. She’s coming off a strong effort at Delaware where she was a winner in an optional claiming/N1X allowance race. She went to the front from an inside drew and was able to draw clear late while being handled by Paco Lopez. This is a relatively quick turnaround off one of her stronger recent efforts. Prior to that race, she ran three times in three straight weeks and the second and third efforts in that span weren’t as good as the first race. I’ll try the Parx invader, Peach Perfect (#5) on top in this race. She’s coming off a win in the mud for Jack Abrams in a beaten $15K claiming race at Parx  last month. While she can handle an off track as she did last time out, she’s much better on a fast surface. She fits at this distance and she should be able to sit a nice stalking trip for her local debut. Viking Queen (#2) is another runner shipping here after a win. She has two victories in her last three starts at Delaware and now she returns to the Jersey Shore for the first time since 2021. Renaldo Richards has kept her in good form since claiming her in April at Tampa. She’s another runner that figures to sit a nice stalking trip in this spot. 

Race 7, The $100K Blue Sparkler Stakes::

Three year old fillies will dash 5 ½ furlongs on the grass in the featured race today. Both Gata Brazil (#7) and Laurice (#9) were cross-entered in the Coronation Cup at Saratoga on Friday and both fillies competed there meaning that I’d plan for both to be scratched today. Those horses defecting takes some of the intrigue away from this race. While both Annascaul (#6) and Roja (#8) are the logical players here, I’m going to try Win N Your In (#5) on top, while trying the turf for the first time. Carlos David has done a nice job with this Florida bred that cost $12K and has earned over $317K on the track early on in her career. She has wins in two state bred stakes and an open stakes race on the dirt. Most recently, she finished third at Gulfstream in the Game Face Stakes, but now it seems they’re thinking about the lawn for this filly. After winning three stakes races on the dirt, I can’t blame them for not trying the grass sooner. Her half sister, Miss Aurament, was a multiple stakes winning turf sprinter. Her sire, Win Win Win, has three winners from 25 starters in turf sprinters early on in his stud career. I think she could pull the upset here. Roja was nosed out by Gata Brazil in the Stormy Blues at Laurel last month at this distance. Since moving to the turf, she has been much better, winning by open lengths in her maiden breaking effort before trying stakes company. She essentially paired her Beyers in her last two tries so she could be eligible to move forward in this spot. Annascaul comes here from New York, two months after fading late in the Take the A Train Stakes last time out. She’s been right there in her last two starts and she’ll try to give Miguel Clement his first win in New Jersey as a trainer. 

Race 8:

The last race carded for the dirt today is a beaten $5K claiming race for fillies and mares going one mile. This contest is for horses that haven’t won a race in six months or horses that have not won four career races. Lonely Ride (#1) was cross-entered in a 12 furlong claiming race on the turf at Penn National last night, but he scratched from that race and appears to be settling on this spot instead. I like him in here because I think there could be a solid pace in the early stages of this one. Likebelivingnmagic (#2), Paynter’s Prodigy (#7), and Jades Jay (#8) all want to be forward. Those horses, especially the shorter priced ones, have benefited from some slower paces and the lack of pressure. I’m not sure that’s going to be the case today. He had a tough trip in the slop with better runners two back, and he left himself too much to do on the turf last out. He drops in class and figures to be to watch for late. Venezuelan Triumph (#5) is the alternate for me in this race. Paco Lopez is back to ride this gelding. He put him on the lead in a paceless, four horse race here two back and I don;t think he loved that kind of trip. He came from off the pace to score at Tampa over the winter, which I think will be that kind of trip that Paco will look to navigate. 

Race 9:

Fillies and mares will end the day in this $16K-$14K N3L claiming race going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. Don’t Listen (#1) was claimed for $12,500 here in June when racing in a six furlong race on the dirt. Derek Ryan tried her in a N1X allowance race going two turns on the turf a few weeks ago and she drew off early, only to come up empty late. That was a significantly better field than what she’s up against today. Her lone start in a turf sprint wasn’t bad. She was facing better here last year and was wide when she finished 5th. She has the rail post today and I think she has the stamina and the ability to put away Reassess (#3), who was game at this level last out, but came up a bit short. Should these two fillies lock in a duel, Mexican Sugar (#4) figures to be the one that would benefit. Samuel Marin rode this horse who was beaten three lengths by Reassess at this level last out. The pace wasn’t particularly strong that day, so faster splits up front could set up her for a stronger late bid.  

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 47/196 (24.0%), $394.20, $2.01 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)