Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 7/19/25 Haskell Day – By Eric Solomon

Monmouth Park will take center stage with a fantastic 14 race card, headlined by the Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell. The Preakness winner and the runner up in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, Journalism, leads a field of 8 in the signature race of the year in New Jersey. The Grade 2 United Nations drew a highly competitive 12 horse field, which feels like one of the best betting races of the afternoon. There’s plenty of action all day long and several world class riders on site, including Irad Ortiz, Flavien Prat, John Velazquez, Luis Saez, Brian Hernandez Jr, Frankie Dettori, Javier Castellano and Umberto Rispoli. The local leading rider, Paco Lopez, will not be in attendance today, as he has secured some sweet rides at Saratoga. First post for this fantastic program is 12:00 PM (ET),

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 5th straight year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1:

Fillies and mares will go one mile over the turf course in this N1X allowance race. The rails are all the way in at 0 feet for all seven of the races that carded for the lawn on this super-sized program. Speed has fared well in these races at this rail position historically, and I think Getaway Palace (#1) has drawn the right post for the race she wants to run. She was cross-entered in an allowance race where she was the 8-5 morning line favorite at Penn National on Thursday. However, that race was taken off the turf, so I expect to see her competing in this race. She’s typically at her best when she’s cruising along on the lead, and while there are some others that could go early, she’s on the fast track to the lead breaking from the rail.  She was a game second in a state bred stakes race last year and followed up that effort with an open length victory at Parx in state bred N1X competition. Her last two starts have been weak, struggling at Laurel last fall, and coming up short in the Lyphard in her first start of this year. It’s worth noting that she was a voided claim in that Laurel race, so something was not right with her coming out of that race. She’s making her second start off the layoff for a low-key barn, while also getting treated once again with race day Lasix. With the big name riders riding early and often here at Monmouth, she’s likely going to be overlooked. Notable Exchange (#10) has outran her odds in her last two starts, just missing in a three horse photo at this level at Delaware two back and running a game 4th against fellow three year old fillies in the Boiling Springs Stakes at the end of June. She clearly likes running on the grass and she’s handled rises in class well. The outside post isn’t ideal, but I think it’s more forgiving at this distance than it is when breaking from out of the chute when going 1 1/16 miles. Obiessante (#2) is another three year old filly in this race. She was disappointing last out in a weird race. She was keen when breaking from the gate, but she wound up being too close to what turned into a very spicy tempo. She collared the stretchout sprinter that was setting those fractions and she briefly held the lead, but she came up empty when the backmarkers came calling. Irad Ortiz taking over should help her cause. I liked her last time and I’m willing to go back to the well today despite the dull try. 

Race 2:

Even though this maiden special weight contest was carded for fillies and mares, three and up, all eight entrants here are three year old fillies. Four of the runners are first time starters and four have race day experience. The firsters are definitely more intriguing to me in this spot. I think a lot of eyes are going to be on Always Authentic (#2) and Noticeable (#7), but don’t sleep on Juan Avila’s firster, Estefania Light (#6) in this race. She’s a Complexity first time starter that has some solid drills over this oval. While he doesn’t have great numbers with debut runners, Avila is having a great meet, winning with 10 of 35 starters going into the weekend. Complexity has sired 67 debut runners in dirt sprints and 12 of them (18%) have won in those races. The dam has foaled one horse to make it to the track and that one lost in a photo on debut. She feels like the value play in this one. Always Authentic is an Authentic filly making her first start for Carlos David in this race. He’s enlisted Irad Ortiz Jr, to ride, a decision which will certainly catch the attention of the betting public. While Authentic has not been great with debuting runners on the dirt, the dam has foaled three first out winners, all of which that debuted as three year olds. I’ll backup with Forbidden Friend (#5), who ships in from Churchill for Victoria Oliver. This filly was a distant second in her last start when facing restricted maiden special weight in Kentucky, however, she was eight lengths clear of the third place finisher in that race. Her AM works look a little snappier than they were going into her last start so perhaps there is some upside with this daughter of McKinzie. 

Race 3:

There are some very challenging turf races on this program today and this maiden special weight race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles is right up there. From a visual standpoint, I really liked the turf two efforts from Gallant Lad (#5). He had a miserable break at Gulfstream in December when he made his debut. He came with a bold rally along the rail, getting into third despite having to tap on the brakes in the middle of his rally. I’ll draw a line through his synthetic effort in January where he finished in the middle of the pack. He went to the sidelines and returned in a nine furlong race at Laurel. He was a little hard to handle in the first furlong, but he settled near the back of the pack. He came with a menacing three wide bid and he looked like he was going to power away. He hung through in the final furlong and finished a head behind the winner, who surged in between rivals late. He should be more fit for this race where he’s cutting back in distance. John Velazquez gets the assignment for Michael Matz. I think he’s one that has a decent chance here and I’m expecting him to be flying under the radar. He’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line, but I’m thinking that number will go up.  Freedom Glider (#4) is a logical alternative in this spot. He just missed in his last two starts, including a neck loss on this oval last month. Frankie Dettori had a win on this card last year when he pulled off the upset with Beaute Cachee in the WinStar Matchmaker. He’s got a running style that should be favorable for this course. I’ll use Investment Mandate (#11) as a deeper saver in this spot, but it’s going to come down to price for me. This is a tough post for him to make his second career start, but blinkers are going on for the first time. He closed with interest after lagging behind early. One one hand, the blinkers should help with that, but on the other hand, post 11 may force him to pull back once again. Chad Brown has had monster days on this card over the last few years so his runners definitely are worth paying attention to. 5-1 is probably the number where I’d start to be comfortable taking him. 

Race 4:

We’ll go back to the dirt for this optional $20K claiming/conditional allowance race for three year olds and up going 1 mile and 70 yards. There is very little speed signed on for this race, so there should be no reason Mr. Papagiorgio (#6) can’t make the lead. He’s trying two turns for the first time after a pair of strong efforts in one turn mile races at Belmont at the Big A. Rick Dutrow claimed this son of Enticed last June. After recovering from an injury, this one has come back stronger and he’s looking like a very competent four year old. Luis Saez gets the call today on the horse that I think they’re going to have to catch. 7-2 is his morning line number, and that feels about right for the number I’d be comfortable playing him at. Valentinian (#3) is the backup for me here. He should get a fast course after two straight tries on sloppy and sealed courses. He finished a distant third in the Pegasus where he had a bit of a strange trip. Bracket Buster, who runs later on in the Haskell, was loving the slop in that race, where he drew off to win by seven lengths. Irad Ortiz takes over today for Samuel Marin, who lands on Shifty Gold (#8) for Chad Brown in this race. I think between the drop in class, the better track condition, and the rider upgrade, there are many things to like with him.

Race 5, The Grade 3 WinStar Matchmaker Stakes:

The first of six stakes races on the card is a nine furlong turf test for fillies and mares. In addition to the purse, the top three finishers will win a single season breeding right to the WinStar Stallion, Timberlake. Chad Brown sends out a trio of runners with Grayosh (#1), Spaliday (#3), and Segesta (#5). There are several intriguing four year olds taking on a few five year old mares, the most notable being Sacred Wish (#2). She won the Grade 1 Matriarch last December at Del Mar, which was the fourth time in 20 starts where she found herself in the Winner’s Circle. She is generally more effective on a firm course, so perhaps that could be the reason for her being a little flat in the spring in Kentucky. She came up a bit short in both of her local races last year. She’s going to take some money in this race, but there isn’t a ton of pace. While she doesn’t need them to fly up front, she’s been much more effective when the pace in front of her is at least honest. Whether that happens or not is likely going to be determined by the tactics of No Mo Candy (#4) and Javier Castellano and Segesta and Irad Ortiz. While I think both will want the lead, I don’t think either would have a problem letting their rival go if they sensed the pace was getting hot. No Mo Candy came up short in her first start of the year, and Segesta has two off the board finishes in her first two tries. I think both fillies will be forward and both will have every chance to win this race. However, I’m going with Spaliday as the top pick. She was really good in the Miss Liberty Stakes, which was an above race for that listed stakes condition. She was a bit slow from the candy and was last while the pace up front wasn’t particularly strong. Consistency has absolutely been an issue for this beautifully bred filly, especially when the company she keeps gets tougher. However, she loves this course and has two excellent efforts here. I love the confidence that Brown has, keeping Samuel Marin in the irons. She’s the top pick for me. I’ll use those other two fillies on the A line, and back up with Sacred Wish as a deeper saver in this very interesting turf test. 

Race 6, The Grade 3 Monmouth Cup:

I’m not going to try to get cute here because I think the heavy favorite, Just a Touch (#4) is just too good for these. When you draw a line through his Kentucky Derby effort last year where he was the last finisher in that 20 horse group, he has put together a pretty impressive string of races. He was campaigned conservatively to start the year where he dominated allowance races at the Fair Grounds and Keeneland, winning those contests by a combined 17 ½ lengths. Brad Cox put him in the Met Mile where he was third in the slop behind Raging Torrent and Fierceness. I think the nine furlong distance of this race suits him extremely well and Florent Geroux, who has ridden him in all eight career starts, has a great rapport with him. The backup for me in this race is Surface to Air (#6). He’s making his second start off the layoff today. He dealt with poor weather and track conditions in his last two starts, but he should be back on the fast track today. He was not competitive in this race last year, but I think he’s a better horse now and I don’t think this field is as deep as last year’s race from top to bottom .

Race 7:

This is another fantastic turf race, as there are 14 entered in this N1X allowance race going one mile. There are plenty of chances in this spot where coverage feels like a necessity. There are several good horses from good barns, mixed in with some local runners that have been competitive on this course. Todd Pletcher has started 11 horses at this meet with only one winner to show for it. Interestingly enough, he has 13 horses entered on this card today alone. He has a pair in this race, and the one that I’m interested in is Assertiveness (#9). Pletcher campaigned his dam, Isabella Sings, and that mare loved racing on this course, winning three different stakes races here, and running winning races in each start. This colt debuted on the dirt in a race taken off the turf at Saratoga, but he was not interested one bit. He went to the sidelines and returned in a maiden special weight race at Gulfstream where he drew post 12. John Velazquez put him in a play early and made things very comfortable for the 1-2 favorite, Dublin’s Knight. The favorite tipped out to challenge him throughout the length of the stretch, but this colt dug in and scored off the layoff. Both runners went to Keeneland where Dublin’s Knight broke his maiden. This colt was a game third on a good course, losing to a pair of well-meant runners. He had the lead at the top of the stretch, but perhaps the course at Keeneland proved to be a little tiring as that. Pletcher tried cutting him back in the Paradise Creek Stakes at Belmont at the Big A in his last start. He was not quick enough to keep up early, but he did close with some interest to be 5th. He was scheduled to run in an allowance race at Saratoga last week, but that race was taken off the turf, which is likely why he is landing here. I like getting back to a mile and I think he’s going to be present early on, which has been a plus at this distance on this course, especially when the rails are all the way in. Irad Ortiz is riding Equivoque (#11) for Pletcher in this race, so there’s a chance that the odds on this colt, who has been ridden by Johnny V. in all three turf starts, could float up. Spirit Prince (#3) is another runner that was forced to defect from the 7/11 race at the Spa at this condition. Miguel Clement had him ready for his four year old debut that day, but Mother Nature had other ideas. I like that both of these horses are shipping here because that tells me that they are absolutely ready to run, and I think both connections have bigger plans for both runners. This Cairo Prince colt broke his maiden in the Central Park Stakes as a two year old at Aqueduct in the Fall of 2023. He was 0-5 as a three year old, but he ran well in four of those races, many of which came against some sharp fields. Both runners that Clement has started here at Monmouth since taking over his late father’s stable have been live. I expect this one to fire his best shot here. Shrug (#12), Shy Da Runner (#4), and Fidelightcayut (#6), were second, third, and fourth, respectively, in a good N1X race here last month. The winner, I’m On Fire, would definitely fit with this group, assuming that he can control his antics on the track. The runner that really caught my eye out of that race was Shrug, for Diane Morici. He broke near the back of the field that day,but was asked to quicken into a slow pace, while making a bold move along the rail. Axel Concepcion waited and then tipped out to get the jump on I’m On Fire, but that one proved to be just a little bit better that day. Concepcion is at Colonial Downs today, so Fernando Jara picks up the mount for Morici. This gelding originally cost $475K in 2022, but was claimed for $30K last summer after being gelded. Both turf races are solid and he could be dangerous in this race at a price if he’s able to take a step forward in his second start off the layoff. Main Beach (#1) is the other runner that I’ll use in this spot. He’s one of two runners that Chad Brown is sending out, with the other being John the Beer Man (#2), breaking next door and making his first start in 14 months. Prat lands on Main Beach, and this is another horse that should be in the mix early. He ran two solid races on this course last year before trying winners at Saratoga. He was a game 4th there before taking a swing in the Hill Prince when making his next start in November. His effort wasn’t terrible, but he was outclassed that day. This is his first start since that race and he’s one that Brown has kept here to prepare for his four year old season. Brown has had a lot of success in maiden and allowance races here this season, winning with 12 of 38 starters going into the week. 

Race 8:

Three year olds and up will go six furlongs in this optional $20K claiming/conditioned allowance race. There’s a total wildcard runner in this race with Pedro Nunes (#9) for Jorge Delgado. He was cross-entered in the Jersey Shore Stakes yesterday, but despite the small field, that race had three really good runners entered, so I believe that Jorge Delgado opted for this spot as a more reasonable option instead. However, the fact that he was considered for that spot tells me that his connections believe he has some ability. This Nyquist colt won on debut at Dundalk on synthetic when going seven furlongs in April. I have no idea who he beat, but I always like horses that are able to win at that distance at first asking, and he beat 12 rivals when doing so. He was less impressive last out when catching a soft turf course at Navan three weeks later, finishing last of six that day. He’s owned by AMO Racing USA and this group likes to buy horses with American pedigrees. They purchased this one, who was sired by a Kentucky Derby winner out of a mare who was sired by a Kentucky Derby winner (Orb). We’ve seen this group campaign Hill Road, who started his career overseas before coming here to be third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. After that, he was transferred to Chad Brown. They’ve had horses that have run well on Breeders’ Cup Day in the past. Jorge Delgado enlists Umberto Rispoli to ride. I’m definitely interested in him in this spot. Vinsanity (#10) catches the eye in this race, getting back on the turf after a trio of turf tries. He was a winner on the grass three back in starter allowance company. Antonio Arriaga took a massive swing by trying him in the Grade 1 Jaipur on the grass two back and that clearly didn’t work out. He tried another turf allowance race there two weeks ago where, once again, he finished last. He had a decent string of races over the dirt course and he figures to be getting more class relief in this spot than anyone else. He doesn’t win a ton, but when he’s well-spotted, he typically shows up. Lord Berrier (#4) is the backup for me in this race. This seven year old gelding was a game second at this level last out, when he was making his first start in nine months. He went off at nearly 30-1 that day and was second to Silver Slugger, who was a heavy 1-10 favorite that day. He wasn’t close to that graded stakes placed runner, but he was clearly second in a race that already produced a next out winner. Consistency has not been a hallmark of his, but when he’s right, he can string some strong efforts together. 

Race 9, The $100K Wolf Hill Stakes:

This 5 ½ furlong turf dash starts a $400K Guaranteed, All-Stakes Pick-4 wager. There are two standouts in this race, and I think there’s value in trying to focus on one of them. Both Isivunguvungu (#6) and Nothing Better (#7) hooked up in the Da Hoss Stakes at Colonial Downs last year. They raced in tandem down the backstretch and when they made the turn, the rail opened up wide for Isivunguvungu while Nothing Better was forced to go four wide. Nothing Better came at him, just missing by a neck. Both horses went on to run once more in 2024, with Nothing Better finishing second in the Belmont Turf Sprint and Isivunguvungu finishing 7th, beaten two lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. This year, Isivunguvungu has two starts, most recently finishing at the back of the pack in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai. Nothing Better struggled in his first start of the year in the Elusive Quality Stakes at Belmont at the Big A. Of the two runners, Nothing Better is the one that I’m leaning on. He was the better horse at Colonial and he loves this course, winning five times here, including last year’s edition of this race. He typically needs a start in his first race of the year before we see his best work. He’s amped up his works at Colts Neck Stables for Jorge Duarte and at this distance on this course, I trust him more. I also expect to get the better price on him considering the level of competition that Isivunguvungu has been up against. Isivunguvungu is the logical backup, but I’ll also include Buccherino (#1) on those tickets. His trainer, Alfredo Velazquez, doesn’t start many horses on the turf. In fact, he’s had only one runner on the grass since the start of 2024. This four year old colt has a lot of ability, as he’s a two-time stakes winner on the dirt. He’s got the rail post and he’s definitely quick. Bucchero has been a very useful sire for dirt and turf sprinters, so there’s no reason to think that his game won’t transfer to the lawn. He may be worth a small play if his odds float up. 

Race 10, The Grade 3 Molly Pitcher Stakes:

This Grade 3 contest starts the last of four Pick-5 wagers, this one offering a $300K guarantee in the pool. Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles over the main track here. This is a serious field, with five Grade 1 winners entered, including the last two winners of the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes, Randomized (#3) and Power Squeeze (#8). Note that Todd Pletcher entered both Candied (#1) and Leslie’s Rose (#7), but, Leslie’s Rose was cross-entered in the Shuvee Stakes on Friday at the Spa. The plan is to run Leslie’s Rose at Saratoga, assuming the course is fast. This race becomes the backup if that’s not the case. The question for this race for me is which version of Randomized is going to show up? After winning the Alabama and Beldame in 2023, she gave Idiomatic all she could handle in the Breeder’s Cup Distaff that year. She only started three times last year. She lost to Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner, Soul of an Angel in the one turn Ruffian Stakes in May. However, that race set her up to beat Idiomatic in a thrilling duel in the Ogden Phipps. After that race, she hasn’t really been the same though. Idiomatic took it to her early and often in the Personal Ensign and she had no answers that day. She was sidelined until coming back in the La Troienne at Churchill. She led for the first mile, but came up short in a race that was quite slow for the Grade 1 level. She tried to retain her title in the Phipps last month, but she was unable to make the lead on the sloppy course and like a lot of the big names in that race, she was never a factor. I think she’s going to make the lead, but after that, it remains to be seen if she can hold off some of the talented ladies that are going to be waiting in the wings. I’m thinking that the best chance to beat her lies with Candied (#1) and Irad Ortiz. She dominated the Lady’s Secret Stakes here last year when she was a three year old taking on older fillies and mares. There was no pace in that race and she still powered by three overmatched rivals to win. She was second to Thorpedo Anna in the CCA Oaks and she just missed in the Alabama after that. She was a little flat in her next three starts, but she looked like she put it all together when dominating the Allaire DuPont Stakes at Pimlico last month. Ortiz gets the return call and she should get a ground saving trip from her rail draw. I think she gets by here and puts herself in the conversation as a horse that could be right there in what could be an excellent running of the Personal Ensign Stakes at the Spa next month. On deeper tickets, don’t discount the local mare, Majestic Oops (#4). Dan Ward has her in career best form right now. She has three straight dominating wins, including an easy score in the slop in the Lady’s Secret Stakes last month. Her effort in the Dig a Diamond Stakes two back at Oaklawn was equally as impressive. While some of those are trying to figure out who they are and what they do best, this is a mare that just runs hard every time. 

Race 11, The Grade 2 United Nations Stakes:

A field of 12 has been entered for the top turf event of the meet at Monmouth. They’ll go 1 ⅜ miles in this historic race. It appears that Corruption (#1) will defect from this race, as per Marcus Hersh at the DRF. Get Smokin (#10) threw down the gauntlet in this race last year and he led every step of the way while holding off furious late bids from both Grand Sonata (#5) and Tawny Port (#2). I assume Fernando De La Cruz is going to try to employ the same strategy again here. The question remains whether or not someone will try to go with him in the early stages of this one. His pace was solid last year, never really getting a breather and holding on late at the end. He’s following the same pattern of races, going into this race, but there is a question of whether or not this eight year old gelding is as sharp as he was at this time last year. If speed is friendly on this course, I’ll definitely upgrade him, but he stands as a B line backup at the moment. While I think this race runs through both Redistricting (#3) and Rebel Red (#7), I have minor concerns about both in this spot. This will be the furthest that Redistricting has gone on the racetrack. He certainly looked the part when dominating the field in the Monmouth Stakes last month when going nine furlongs, but this is a tougher bunch and he’s being asked to go a quarter mile longer. I do wonder if his stretch kick will be as effective. There’s no doubt about the stretch kick that Rebel Red can provide. He closed like a beast into a moderate pace when winning the Chorleywood Stakes at Churchill at this same distance last month. He showed no ill-effects from falling over a fallen rival in the Louisville Stakes two back. I think he might have the most raw talent in the field, but he struggles to switch leads in the stretch. Jose Ortiz has been his regular rider, but he’s staying in New York. Luis Saez is a more than capable replacement, but I am always cautious any time there is a rider switch on a horse that has proven to be difficult to ride. Neither of these concerns are enough to take these runners off the A line, but I will try to find a price on top. Vote No (#6) is coming off a win in the 12 furlong Cape Henlopen Stakes at Delaware. He was favored that day, so I don’t think the field he beat that day was all that great. However, he showed that he can be a force at longer distances. He has a little more tactical speed than Rebel Red, so he could get the jump on that one. Kelsey Danner has brought live runners to this meet, with all three of them hitting the board, with one of them finding the Winner’s Circle. The tactics that Prat will employ with Redistricting remain to be seen, as that one has been placed in different spots in many of his races. I think he’s a live longshot who should be a good price here. 

Race 12, The Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes:

This year’s NYRA Bets Haskell is basically a rematch of the Preakness with the first, second, and fourth place finishers hooking up once again in this Grade 1 contest. Journalism (#2) is going to be a heavy favorite in this race. He’s listed at 4-5 on the morning line, and he’s going to go into the starting gate at odds much lower than that. When trying to make a case against him here, one also has to have a viable alternative. It would be a huge shock if one of the four Mid-Atlantic based runners won this race. Bracket Buster (#1), Wildncrazynight (#3), National Law (#5), and Kentucky Outlaw (#7) would all need to take some fairly massive steps forward to win this race. That leaves Burnham Square (#4), Gosger (#6), and Goal Oriented (#8) as horses that are in the conversation here. I liked Burnham Square in the Derby, but I haven’t really seen this horse take that step forward to put him in the upper echelon of his class. However, there is plenty of cheap speed signed on for this race, so the pace scenario may favor a horse like him that is likely going to be 7th or 8th at the first point of call. I don’t think it’s a bold statement to suggest that Gosger has the most upside in this race. He pressed Clever Again in the Preakness and when that one bowed out, he found himself loose on the lead, behind all of the trouble. He had a five length lead at the top of the stretch, but still couldn’t hold off Journalism, who had his momentum halted, before coming back to score. Bob Baffert sends out Goal Oriented, who is only making his 4th career start. He was sharp in both career victories, which earned him a spot in the starting gate in the Preakness. I was a little surprised that Prat didn’t try to take the lead early in that race. He rode him hard out of the gate, but Clever Again crossed over and took the lead. He sat in a nice pocket in third, with Journalism  racing behind him. Once Gosger put away Clever Again, Prat tipped out Goal Oriented and tried hard not to let Journalism through. Both horses were impacted, but obviously, Journalism recovered while Goal Oriented hung around to be 4th, about 6 lengths behind his rival. Since that race, Baffert has had him working well at Santa Anita, drilling multiple five furlong bullet works there. He flew out with Journalism as Baffert is looking for his 10th win in this race. Since his win with American Pharoah here in 2015, only the only other winner he’s had in that span was Authentic. I also worry that the outside post and what could be a demanding pace, could take its toll on this one. I’d probably want somewhere between 8-1 and 10-1 on him. He’s starting off at 4-1 in this race and with the Baffert name next to him in the program, I don’t think that’s going to happen. At the end of the day, we really haven’t seen any evidence that Journalism is slowing down, and I haven’t seen enough from the other three runners to feel confident playing them against the favorite, especially when considering, I’m not sure we’re going to get fair odds on any of them, because that 8-1 to 10-1 range is where I’m going to be looking. Journalism is the top pick with Burnham Square and Gosger as the backups for me. 

Race 13:

The only straight claiming race on this loaded card is a very good $12,500-$10,500 claimer for three year olds and up going one mile. 12 runners have entered this race, which follows the main event. Six runners hit the wire within a ½ length of each other in a race at this level last month and the first five finishers are back at it again. The horse that finished 5th, Drakon (#2), might have run the best race that day. He was stuck in post 10, but he was sent early where he had to go fast in the first quarter mile. He dueled all the way around the track and held on gamely when the back markers confronted him. He has some back class and could be rounding into better form since joining Carlos David’s barn. Samy Camacho is going to take the mount for the first time today with Concepcion riding in Virginia.  I see him as the one to beat in this race. More Than Work (#6) got his head down to be second in that race and now he makes his first start off the claim for Kelly Breen. This will be his third start off the layoff today. He just missed at the mile distance at this level two back when he tried setting the pace in a race where the front end speed all scratched out. He’s more comfortable running from off the pace and he should be right there once again. On deeper tickets, Mt Suribachi (#12) is making his second start off the layoff today. He might need one more start before we see his best, but this is the right level of competition for him. Dexter Haddock is going to have to avoid being quite wide into the first turn, while also keeping him in a competitive spot. I prefer him in the bottom rungs of the vertical exotics, but if everything shakes his way, he could upset this group. 

Race 14:

New Jersey breds will wrap things up in this optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance sprint, going six furlongs. On paper, this looks like a good battle between Go Irish (#7) and Boardwalk Jack (#8). Go Irish has been second in his last two starts at this level for Jena Antonucci. He caught a sloppy and sealed track and was no match for Pogi, who certainly could flatter him with a strong effort in the 8th race today. He had a big win three back with open $50K N2L claiming company at Belmont at the Big A. He has decent efforts here at this level and I think getting the rider upgrade to Samy Camacho will help his cause. He feels like the one beat. Boardwalk Jack made his first start as a three year old, a winning one when easily taking care of business in a state bred maiden special weight race. He was competitive in decent races as a two year old and it looks like he took a step forward this year. If he moves forward off that race, he’s going to be awfully tough for Eddie Owens. However, it can be a challenge at this level when facing winners for the first time. 

2025 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners, 50/222 (22.5%), $413.60, $1.86 ROI

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2025 to see if this trend continues. 

Under the data charts, I’ve also summarized some post position information. Horses in wider posts, especially in races coming out of the chute in 1 1/16 races at 12 and 24 feet settings have struggled mightily. Four winners last season came from posts 10 and beyond. All four of those races started at one mile. Those races begin in the straightaway at Monmouth. No winners came from those posts all season long in races that started in either the 5 ½ furlong chute or the 1 1/16 mile chute. Conversely, there’s not a huge disadvantage for starting in posts 7-9 at any rail position. This will be another data point that I’ll continue to collect throughout the 2025 meet in order to see if these trends continue. 

0 Feet (In 2024, 3/30 – 10% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 7 winners in 31 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 9 winners in 31 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 31 races 

Posts 10+: 3 winners from 20 races

12 Feet (In 2024, 11/58, 19% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races 

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races (4 races with less than 7 runners)

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 19 winners in 54 races (One DH)

Posts 4-6: 23 winners in 54 races

Posts 7-9: 12 winners in 47 races (7 races with less than 7 runners)

Post 10: 1 winner from 9 races*

The lone winner came in a one mile race where the chute was not employed. Horses starting from Post 10 in 1 1/16 races starting in the chute were 0-7.

36 Feet (In 2024, 12/35 of the winners were CLOSERS)

2024 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 12 winners in 35 races

Posts 4-6: 14 winners in 35 races

Posts 7-9: 9 winners in 33 races (2 races with less than 7 runners)