Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 7/25/26 – By Eric Solomon

The weather forecasters are calling for a beautiful Saturday afternoon at Monmouth Park where they’ll be hosting their signature race for three year old fillies at the meet, the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks. There are 10 fillies entered here, but, as per her owner, the big name, Zany, will not be making the trip. Post time for the first race is 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start things off with a maiden special weight contest for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Four of the seven runners entered for the turf in this race are coming out of the 6/21 event at this level where Chad Brown’s Market Timing blew the field away, winning by over 10 lengths. The only other horse in that race to take money, Guitarist, came back to win a maiden allowance at Presque Isle Downs. Resolute (#3) was the second place finisher in that race and that effort was good enough to earn him the role of the morning line favorite in this race. He showed improvement that day after showing very little early speed in his first turf start earlier in the year at Tampa. He finished well in front of the other three runners that afternoon, so he certainly is worth thinking about here. However, he is going to be a short price in a race where the second choice is wheeling back a week after coming up short in a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race here last week. He’s an A line play for me, but I’m going to try Bremen (#2) on top in this spot for Shug McGaughey. Shug’s runners at Monmouth struggled early on last season. He was only 1-15 going into September last year, but since then his Monmouth horses have gone 3-7 with a few narrow defeats in that group as well. This four year old colt was late to debut, making his first start in New York last month when going six furlongs. The dam was a Grade 2 winner on the turf and she was Grade 1 placed. She’s sent four runners to the track and all four have done their best work at longer distances on the turf. I think that last race was designed to get the ball rolling for this late bloomer. I’m thinking he’s going to be better at two turns and I think this a good spot to tackle that challenge for the first time. 

Race 2:

The Early Pick-4 begins with an optional $20,000 claiming/$12,500 starter allowance race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. Parx is taking their usual summer break and that usually means that we’ll see a few extra horses making the hour long journey from Bensalem, Pennsylvania across the border and over to Oceanport, New Jersey. Four of the seven runners here are based at Parx. Something is going to have to give in this race as Unsolved Mystery (#6), who is a locally based runner who has won her last six starts, squares off against Lady Annabelle (#2), who is a Parx invader riding a four race winning streak. None of the runners in this race have late pace figures that lead me to believe that they’ll be able to run either of these mares down. I prefer Lady Annabelle in this spot. Ernesto Padilla-Preciado has the six year old mare in career best form right now. He’s looking to strike while the iron is hot, so I don’t mind him taking a short trip to the Jersey Shore here, even after scoring in a state bred allowance race last week. Five of her seven career wins have come at this distance and I think having inside position on the favorite is a plus. Unsolved Mystery seemed like a perfect fit in her last spot where she romped and posted a career top Beyer Speed Figure. She has posted a figure of 80 or higher four times in her 27 race career. She is 2-3 in her subsequent starts after those races, but each time there has been a fairly significant figure regression. She won two of those races in spite of that, just because she overmatched some soft fields. I don’t think she can get away with that when facing a horse like Lady Annabelle though, especially when considering her current form.  

Race 3:

We’ll head back to the turf course for this $22K-$18K claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. The rails for all of the turf races this afternoon will be set at 12 feet. There are three runners that stand out in this spot on paper and Brad Thomas, who makes the morning line, clearly feels the same way. Mohs (#6) is the pick for me in this race. He’s making his third start of 2026 after missing a little over a year. He was a three time winner on this course back in 2024, including a handy score at this distance and class level. He was a sharp second here last month and I think he’ll be better in this spot. While his stablemate, Magical Marriage (#5) figures to be a little better than he was last time out, I’m not sure how much that nine year old gelding has left in the tank. Into It (#2) is the other major player and he’ll likely be handling things on the front end. Seeing him entered in this spot is a little puzzling though. The next leg of the Malouf Auto Group Starter Series is next weekend. While he’d likely have to deal with Two’s a Crowd, the winner of the first two legs, again, there are incentives that make running in three of the four legs worthwhile. Running today doesn’t exclude him from that spot, but he is on the table to be claimed. He is the lone speed in this spot, so he’s clearly worth using as a backup at least. However, I think Mohs is classier and can put enough pressure on him to keep him from slipping away.

Race 4:

Eight fillies and mares are set to go six furlongs in this beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming race. Both No Denying (#6) and Toasttothestones (#7) are two-time winners whereas the other six runners here qualified under the N2L condition. Terri Pompay sends out Derby Hangover (#4) to face winners for the first time. She scored in a $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming race here last month. She has 11 career starts, but only three of them have come on the dirt. Those efforts are generally sharper than her synthetic and turf form. The runner up from that last race came back to win her last start, suggesting that there was some quality at that level. I think this is the right level of competition for her to try her luck against winners. No Denying was a winner at this level in her last start. She has four career starts and all four have been solid. She’s been popular at the claim box , but I don’t think she has a ton of upside to move up. She is racing at the right level though and should be right in the mix once again. Sushi (#1) is a bit of a wildcard in this race, coming back to the Jersey Shore for Jorge Delgado. She’s plummeting in class and getting back on the dirt for her second start off the layoff. She was a winner in an off the turf maiden allowance race at the Spa last summer. Her figures haven’t really trended up and her last three starts have been dismal. I wouldn’t rule out the idea of her waking up for a sharp barn though. 

Race 5:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a $12,500-$10,500 claiming race going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course. I think the drop in class for Bahamian Moon (#1) makes her very tough to deal with in this race. She was claimed by Michael Simone at Tampa for $16K four starts ago. She earned a few checks when finishing third in an optional claiming/N2X allowance race at Tampa and an off the turf ratings handicap at Delaware. She struggled in her latest effort at Delaware, but that was her first try over the local course there and some horses don’t love it. The grass is kept longer there than it is at Monmouth and the course doesn’t typically get quite as firm as it is down at Monmouth. Her lone start here was a respectable 4th place a few years ago at long odds. She has plenty of tactical speed, but she’s quick enough to dictate the tempo that needs to be done here. I see a lot of cheap speed that should be a hindrance to her. The backup for me is Peggysue I Love U (#5), who is expected to make her first start on the turf today. The dam has had one other foal make it to the races, but that one went winless. This five year old mare has four career wins, two of which came over the synthetic. She’s faster on the all-weather than she is on the dirt and her dam did all of her best work on the lawn. She was a winner here at this distance , so there’s reason to believe that this one could make things interesting in this race. 

Race 6:

There are plenty of ways to go in this $5K starter allowance race where they’ll go a mile and 70 yards over the main track. I landed on Master of None (#4), who is making his first start off the Silvino Ramirez claim. This barn hasn’t been as active in the claiming game at this meet compared to last year, however, his runners tend to really take a step forward. The recent form at Parx hasn’t been his best, it is fair to point out that he was posting string figures when racing elsewhere. I see him as a horse with some upside in this race. Brave Bear (#6) has three wins in four starts at this meet. His lone defeat came at this level, however, his day came undone at the break. His overall effort wasn’t bad when he finished 4th that day and his effort was flattered when Tiger Moon came back with a strong win in his last start. There are definitely some good vibes with this six year old New York shipper. We Ready (#1) also gets class relief after struggling in his latest effort. His two prior efforts at Penn and Parx are likely good enough to win this race with relative ease should he be able to reproduce those tries. 

Race 7, The Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks:

Three year old fillies will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in this Grade 3 contest. As mentioned above, Mike Repole announced that Zany (#1) will run in the Grade 1 CCA Oaks at Saratoga this afternoon. Both Pashmina (#3) and Miss Fulton Gal (#10) are also cross-entered there as well, but I haven’t seen any final decisions. Overall, this has not been the strongest crop of three year old fillies, so to me, the story of this race is how the less experienced runners will fare against the Black-Eyed Susan runner, My Miss Mo (#5). I think this could be a good spot for Pashmina to get herself right. She was really good in the Gazelle, finishing a close second behind the Oaks winner, Always a Runner. She struggled in the Kentucky Oaks and was flat in her last start in the Delaware Oaks. The track at Delaware can be a little quirky and sometimes horses just don’t fire there. I like her post and I think Vargas will be able to keep her positioned inside of My Miss Mo.Her best is good enough to win this race. Point of Reference (#7) is a bit of an up and coming type of filly after a solid effort to be second in her stakes debut at Churchill last month. She had a wide journey that day, but still turned in a solid effort to be second to La Rascasse. She’s the second foal to race from a mare that was graded stakes placed. Chad Brown has been very tough to deal with here. On deeper tickets, I’m interested to see what Jumping the Gun (#2) does in this race. She took a big step forward in the Delaware Oaks in her last start. She’s a very consistent filly that has never finished off the board. She doesn’t win a ton of races as she needs to prove that she can be as effective when she’s away from Delaware Park. However, if she runs back to her last figure, she’s going to be right there with this group. 

Race 8:

We’ll head back to the turf to close out the card. Three year olds and up will dash 5 ½ furlongs in this $40K-$30K maiden claiming race. There is some turf pedigree there for Jersey’s the Boss (#4), who will be trying the lawn for the first time. I like that he gets Jose Ferrer in the irons. The dam was a winner on both turf and dirt. His sire, Holy Boss, did all of his best work on the dirt. However, his runners win 12% of their races when sprinting on the grass. The dirt form fits with this field and since he was bred in the Garden State, he will be running with a waiver. Souper Document (#2) is probably the safer pick in this race. He’s dropping in for a tag after two in the money finishes with maiden allowance types at this distance.  He only cost his new owners $5K, so the decision to drop this one in class feels a bit logical. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 52/195 (26.7%), $295.90 ($1.52 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet