Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 8/22/26 – By Eric Solomon

There’s an eight race card at Monmouth this afternoon, highlighted by a contentious running of the $100K Violet Stakes for fillies and mares on the turf. First post is set for 12:50 PM (EDT).

The $800 Travers Day Monmouth Park/Saratoga Contest will be the last handicapping contest at Monmouth during the live thoroughbred meet this year. That will be next Saturday (8/29) and the link  for registration and contest information is below. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/800-travers-day-monmouth-saratoga-contest-4/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Fillies and mares will sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in a strong optional claiming/allowance race that will start things off this afternoon. Last weekend , Miguel Clement came here with a Presque Isle Downs shipper that was completely overlooked in the wagering in an allowance race at this distance on the turf. He teamed up with Thankfulness to come with a powerful late kick to score at 16-1. They’re partnering with another closer in this race, sending out Aporia (#6), who was last seen finishing off the board in the Lady Erie Stakes there. This filly had the misfortune of having to deal with Cy Fair in her only turf sprint when she debuted last summer. She finished 5th in that race and didn’t embarrass herself when facing the eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner. She came back at Tampa in the spring and ran two credible races on the turf when going one mile there. She shipped to Erie where she broke her maiden in a six furlong spring on the Tapeta there. She comes back to the grass, which I feel will be her best surface. She’s facing a talented group, but I think she’s capable of taking a decent step forward in this race while being overlooked in the wagering. Most of the wagering dollars figure to flow through the Saratoga invader, Duboff (#4). Her trainer, Gregory Sacco, was once a mainstay here at Monmouth, but he’s only had one starter to date at this meet this season. This four year old filly was 5th in allowance company at the Spa three weeks ago when making her first start since January. She’s a modest New Jersey bred that was a handy winner on this course last summer when clearing the state bred N1X allowance condition. While I don’t love seeing a horse that was competitive at Saratoga shipping here to run in a race where the purse is about $80K less than her previous start, it is worth noting that this filly only cost $4,500 and she’s been a major overachiever thus far, banking over $141K in total purse money in her 10 career starts. Moonblaze (#2) is also worth considering in this spot. She tried to go from last to first in a similar spot when facing a compact field of five in her last start. She left herself too much work to do that day and finished 4th. Her maiden score here two starts back was quite impressive though. I like the rider switch to Jose Gomez from Andrew Wolfsont for this race since Gomez has a lot more experience riding these unique 5 ½ furlong races out of the chute here at Monmouth. 

Race 2:

While New Jersey breds will take the spotlight tomorrow for the New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival, we’ll get a preview of one of those races with a maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies going 5 ½ furlongs on the main track. I don’t love the way that She’s a Twelve (#5) fell apart in her last two starts and the other experienced runners in this race aren’t offering much. I’m going to lean into two first time starters and make Bar Room Queen (#3) the top pick in this race. The dam has produced a debut winner that went on to win a New York bred stakes race in her second career start. She has had other runners that have been competitive early on as well. Army Mule is a good first out sire, with his runners scoring 20% of the time when debuting in a dirt sprint race. Eddie Owens sends out another Sea Wizard first timer start with Armstrong Road (#2). She has been working well in the morning for an outfit that is more than capable of having runners ready to fire at first asking. She’s the first foal to race from a mare that ran twice on the turf in her career. Sea Wizard has been a very good debut sire with New Jersey bred runners, as his runners have won 28% of the time with firsters in dirt sprints. 

Race 3:

We’ll go with another state bred maiden special weight race here with older horses going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. Note that Howitzer (#4) is entered tomorrow in a two turn race, which likely suits him better than this sprint. I made the New York based runner, Bourbon Hangover (#6) my top pick. Rachel Keithan is looking for her first training win in 2026, and I think shipping here with this Bourbon Courage gelding will give her a shot. He showed speed when facing $55K maiden claimers in his last two turf sprint races at Aqueduct and Saratoga. It’s clear that he’s not up to that level of competition, but this is class relief for him, despite the fact that he’s running in a protected maiden allowance. Blinkers go on and he did improve when cutting back fro msix furlongs to  this 5 ½ furlong distance in his last start. Luis Rivera Jr. has been red hot and he’ll get the assignment today. Jersey’s the Boss (#2) tried the turf for the first time and was a game second in a maiden claiming race here last out. He was eligible to run with the waiver in all of his maiden claiming races since he was bred in New Jersey. He’s bred to handle to the grass, so improvement here is not out of the question. On deeper tickets, I’ll toss in Hillsborough Eight (#3), who will be trying the grass for the first time today. Sea Wizard is getting 20% winners from his runners in turf sprint races and he’s been competitive in those optional maiden claiming races here on the dirt. If he takes to the lawn, he’ll be right there as well. 

Race 4:

A field of six three and four year old fillies will sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the dirt in this $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming contest which kicks off the Late Pick-5 wager. The favorites in this spot are both second time starters getting class relief, and the form from the experienced runners has not been good. However, there are definite question marks with both Tarzan’s Niece (#5), who debuted in a dirt route, and Vino Warrior (#6), who was beaten 22+ lengths when debuting with a waiver in an optional maiden claiming race here two weeks ago. While Dylan Rose (#3) has not been able to carry her speed at all in her first four starts, she has quietly faced some much better foes despite running in similar races. She cuts back in distance and might get brave in a spot where there might not be anyone coming with any real late kick. I’ll use both of the second time starters as well, since the form from the other four is really rough. 

Race 5: 

Despite there being 12 runners in the entry box for this race, only seven of the runners are scheduled to go on the grass in this optional claiming/allowance race going 1 1/16 miles. Chad Brown has two runners in this race and most of the attention is going to focus on Debt Limit (#3). This five year old gelding has very little early speed, but he does like to come running late. He’s going to need a trip and probably a decent setup to score in this race and while the trip is an unknown, I’m not sure the setup is going to be ideal. He’s classy enough to use as a backup, but I’m going to try to beat him with his stablemate, Mr Browns Town (#1). His first two starts were ashed off the turf when facing high price optional maiden claimers in New York last fall. He got up in time to win his only start on the turf, which clearly seems to be his preferred surface. He’s been sidelined since November and now he’ll make his three year old debut today. He’ll need to move forward, but I like his running style and his draw for this race and the fact that Luis Rivera Jr. is riding him instead of Debt Limit feels meaningful. I’ll also use the Delaware invader, Take Me to Church (#6) on some tickets. He’s a candidate to wire this field as it seems that he’ll be on the lead in the early stages of this one. He was cross-entered in a race at Delaware that was taken off the grass yesterday. He showed up to score at the Meadowlands last fall and he should be more fit after tiring late in his first start of the summer at Laurel. 

Race 6:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming race that kicks off the $3 Late Pick-3. I’m not going to try to beat Clean Winner (#1) in this race. She was a dominating winner on this course back on Opening Day. She came back in a tough starter allowance spot at Parx where she struggled. That was her first time on that track and shippers can sometimes struggle there. She came back in a turf race here against better where she ran a stronger race  to finish 3rd. She drops in class to a level where she can clearly win. Lady Khoz (#6) is the backup for me in this rac.e SHe’s more consistent than some of the other fillies that are competing here and she has the ability to run on late where I think some of the others will be going in the wrong direction in the final furlong. 

Race 7, The $100K Violet Stakes:

This $100K stakes race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the turf came up pretty strong. There are 9 runners entered in the body of the field and a pair of MTO runners on the outside. Live Oak Plantation has three runners entered, but there’s no rider named on Mischief in Motion (#7), so I’m not sure what the intentions are with that longshot. Long Ago (#9) is the second choice on the morning line in this race, but she is cross-entered in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa at Saratoga, where she is based. She has not had a ton of luck at the entry box as she drew the outside stall in both races. If Long Ago opts to come here, I think City Girl (#6) is going to get a great setup. Souper Zonda (#1) and Amalfi Drive (#8) want to go to the front, and Long Ago doesn’t need the lead, but with her outside draw, she might be forced to go after the frontrunners sooner than Jose Ferrer might prefer. Stronger internal fractions would play right into the hands of City Girl, who likes to roll late. She loves the distance and is clearly the class of this field. There aren’t a ton of options in the conditions books for Grade 3 type horses on the turf until the fall, so this race fills a need while Brown has deployed stronger horses to Saratoga for the Ballston Spa. If Long Ago opts to stay in Saratoga Springs, Souper Zonda might get the run of the race. She has early speed, but she’ll be content to track if Amalfi Drive comes out firing. She has wins in three straight races, but this is a class test for this Curlin filly. She was desperate to hang on at this distance at Colonial in allowance company in her last start, but that was her first race since April and she likely needed that start before showing her best. Long Ago would be a backup if she’s in this race. I would upgrade Unreasonable (#2) if she’s not though. My knock on this horse is that I think she wants to go a little longer than the 1 1/16 mile distance of this race. She figures to be right in the mix, but I prefer her underneath than on top.

Race 8:

We’ll end the day with a beaten $5K claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. Sofster (#1) has consistently been facing tougher beaten $5K groups whereas some of these other ladies have been struggling against weaker groups. Three of her five career wins have come on this oval, including a score in the slop back in May. I think she has the upper hand on this group in the nightcap. Duela Dent (#6) was a winner with a softer group last month, beating a few of these with relative ease. She’s another runner that does her best work on this course and she’s been known to stay good once she hits her better form. These are the two that should decide this one. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 75/283 (26.5%), $439.90 ($1.55 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet