Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 5/17/26 – By Eric Solomon

After winning the Preakness with Napoleon Solo, Paco Lopez is back at Monmouth today where he’s named to ride several short priced runners. His main rival, Samuel Marin is named to ride several nice horses as well, however, it appears that he’ll be off his mounts again today after sustaining an injury at Delaware earlier in the week. Luis Rivera Jr. picked up some mounts as a result and he had four winners on the program yesterday. First post today is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

The full card analysis below, but in this section, I’m going to spotlight a few horses that I’m looking at building multi-race tickets around. 

Race 1: 

The Sunday card kicks off with a maiden special weight contest for three year olds and up going 1 mile and 70 yards on the main track. Five of the six runners in this race will be routing on the dirt for the first time. Chad Brown sends out the heavy the favorite, Pauillac (#4), who ships in from New York in hopes of breaking his maiden. While this is the kind horse I’d be looking to try to beat, I’m not really impressed with the other five runners. He’s well bred, sired by Gun Runner out of a Giant’s Causeway mare who has produced a pair of graded stakes winners in dirt route races. His first two starts were solid, and perhaps the desire to get a two turn race at less than nine furlongs is the motivation for shipping this $750K purchase to the Jersey Shore. The horse that will also take money is Tifosi (#5) for Juan Avila and Paco Lopez. This duo often wins when they team up here at Monmouth, scoring 8 of 13 times together last season. Avila’s horses also excel when going from sprints to routes. However, when looking at the pedigree here, I’m not convinced this one is going to be able to move forward enough at two turns to beat Brown’s runner. I’d look to Avila’s other runner, Gold Light (#1) as the backup here. He moves back to the dirt after a pair of turf route races at Tampa. Obviously, Avila thinks higher of his other runner since he’s giving the mount to Paco, but don’t sleep on Charlie Marquez, who got the chance to ride several of Avila’s runners yesterday when Paco was in Maryland. I think his dirt sprint efforts were better than his turf routes, so I do see him as a horse that could move forward in this kind of race. 

Race 2:

The Early Pick-4 begins with a $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming race going six furlongs. We’re dealing with another short priced runner here as Wayne Potts sends out More Power (#2) with Paco Lopez is the saddle. This Arkansas bred was entered in a race at this level last week, but defected from that two turn race in favor of this sprint. That certainly seems like the logical decision with this Arkansas bred as all seven career tries have come in one turn races. He’s likely going to be under pressure from Identity Crisis (#5) though and I’m not convinced either will be finishing with that much gusto in this race. If Its Pizza Time (#6) is ready and right off the long layoff, he should get the right setup in his first start for the Silvino Ramirez claim last year. He was last seen on the racetrack in the afternoon in July, so he’s been sidelined for over 10 months, and the fact that he’s returning in a race where the claiming price is half of the amount he was claimed for is not ideal. His outside draw and his talking style should give him every chance to run down the pacesetters late in this one if he’s good enough. I’ll use New York Strong (#4) as a backup along with More Power in this race. New York Strong is probably better on the grass, but this is a lower level of competition. He’s also been sidelined since 2025, competing at the end of November in his most recent start. Panagiotis Synnefias seems to have inherited several of the Claudio Gonzalez runners, and while he’s had a slow start to his 2026 campaign, this barn is capable of turning things around quickly. More Power is the more desirable frontrunner, as his figures are higher. You’ll have to excuse his last start at Will Rogers Downs though. His prior three efforts at Oaklawn were all likely good enough to win at this level. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will go 1 mile and 70 yards on the dirt in this optional claiming/starter allowance. All six runners entered in here qualified under the $8K starter allowance condition and will not be available to be claimed. These battle tested ladies know how to win races as there’s 36 wins between the runners here. The two shorter prices in this field, Salagadoola (#1) and La Vecchia Signora (#6), are coming here with winning streaks on the line. However, I think it could be Sweet Nola (#4) who gets the run of the race. She was claimed in her last two starts at Tampa, where her form was a bit shaky. She’s a nine time winner in her career though and she’s 5 for 15 at this distance. I think she should get a nice stalking trip behind the stretch out sprinters, Purple Lu Lu (#2) and Charlie’s Beauty (#3). La Vecchia Signora is the more attractive option of the two favorites. Her first six career starts came in one turn sprints on the dirt, where she was 1-6. She tried two turns three back and she’s won her last three starts at two turns, getting a little better each time. If her Tampa form carries over to Monmouth, she’s going to be very tough to deal with in this race. It certainly won’t hurt her chances with Paco Lopez getting the assignment here. 

Race 4:

There’s a lot of recent form in this $5K starter allowance race as six of the seven runners here already have a start this month and the one that hasn’t raced in May last ran on April 29th. This race is all about Guapo Again (#3) for me. He ran last week at Charles Town where he was a little flat in an optional claiming/N1X race there at 6 ½ furlongs. I’m usually forgiving of bad efforts in sprint races there since 6 ½ furlong races on that course are two turn races. His Tampa form for Michael Simone was much sharper and I think he has the speed and stamina to take this field all the way up front. I’ll back up with Hermoso Hombre (#2), who is sprinting for the first time in a long time. His best efforts are likely good enough to contend at this level, but the big question is the distance. There are several runners that want to be forward, so he’s one that figures to be in last place at the first call. He’d need a total pace meltdown scenario to score, which is not out of the question in this race. 

Race 5:

The first turf race of the day is a $25K-$20K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. Just like yesterday, the rails will be out at 24 feet. I landed on Bella Bello Banker (#1) in this race. She’s making her first start for Juan Avila, which is a significant upgrade. She has had a few decent efforts on the turf in the past. I’m willing to draw a line through her last start in a five furlong synthetic sprint at Gulfstream. Avila’s numbers lately with new acquisitions are through the roof. Lady of Troy (#5) goes back to two turns on the turf after a 5th place finish in a maiden special weight turf sprint at Tampa. I didn’t love her effort at two turns two starts back against fellow three year old fillies at Tampa. She’s sired by Leinster, so perhaps the distance is a touch too far. \I do respect her consistency as she drops back in class today. The favorite is Abbey Jean (#6) for Kelly Breen and Paco Lopez. I don’t love either of her two turn races and the fact that she’s in for a $25K tag three starts removed from being claimed for $50K is not great. I think she’s going to be too short of a price for my taste, but it’s hard to completely take a stand against Paco when he’s facing an evenly matched field just because of how he can upgrade his mount.

Race 6:

We’ll start the $3 Late Pick-3 with a state bred maiden special weight race going 5 ½ furlongs on the main track. I think Twin Lights (#5) is the one to beat in this race, He went to the sidelines after finishing up the track against the future Florida Derby winner Tappan Street in an open maiden special weight race in December of 2024. He came back in a maiden claiming race at Gulfstream at the end of May where he ran well to be third as the post time favorite. He’s making his second start off the layoff for Eddie Owens and he’s facing New Jersey breds for the first time today. If he can run back to his last race, I think he gets his picture taken. The logical backup is Mystical Merlin (#1), who is making his first start since being moved to Chuck Spina’s barn. He went to Oaklawn where he ran into Nu What’s New and Publisher in an open maiden allowance race at two turns. He’s been sidelined since that drubbing at the hands of superior animals. He was sharp here last summer in a pair of one turn sprints in open maiden company. Like the top pick. He’s a Sea Wizard gelding that is facing state bred opposition for the first time. I have some trepidation with the barn switch, but on paper he makes a lot of sense. 

Race 7:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs on the dirt in this $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming race. Kelly Breen earned win number 7 at this meet when he won the nightcap yesterday. He sends out Toasttothestones (#3) here, who makes sense in this spot while cutting back in distance from a one mile effort at Gulfstream last month. Her lone win came at this distance and her effort two back against better fillies would likely get her close with this group. Elsie’s Smile (#6) is another runner that has a big chance if she can overcome her last dull effort. Her prior two tries at Tampa were very good, including a game third place effort when facing starter allowance types. Like the top pick, she misfired in her latest try, but the drop in class should help turn things around. On deeper tickets, Charming Jennie (#2) has yet to prove that she can run back to her debut effort. However, that race was good enough for her to compete at this level. She changes barns and is now trained by Wayne Potts, who had his first winner of the meet yesterday. The last three efforts are tough to excuse, but the drop in class makes her worth taking one more shot. 

Race 8:

We’ll close out the card with a beaten $40K-$30K claiming race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on the turf course. Three Percent (#1) was sharp on the turf three back when breaking his maiden in a maiden special weight race at Tampa. He was in over his head two back in allowance company there and his most recent start against $55K N2L claimers at the Big A was washed off the turf. He drops against and returns to Monmouth where he ran well in two starts on dirt in 2025. I think he’s going to be tough in this race. Copernium (#3) comes into this race winning three of his first five career starts. He’s one of only two horses in this race with multiple victories, (Manoah’s Glory (#9) being the other). He’s never competed on the grass before and his last three starts came on the synthetic course at Gulfstream. I expect him to go to the front and then we’ll see if he’s starting to feel brave. Khetam (#5) moves in Mike Din’s barn for his local debut. I do worry that he doesn’t have enough tactical speed to win a race like this. However, Luis Rivera Jr. rode a horse yesterday on the turf who didn’t have a ton of tactical speed but he was able to keep him in striking distance in a race where he ended up winningI do think he has a forward move in him. . 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 6/24 (25.0%), $27.30 ($1.14 ROI)

Data for Winners Last Start

A data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners have fared very well here over the last two seasons. There has also been a downward trend with New York shippers early in the meet here over the last few seasons, so that is something worth paying attention to as well in 2026.

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

2024-2025 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 19 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 17 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races in 2024 / 12 winners in 41 races in 2025

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races in 2024 / 0 winners in 4 races in 2025

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet (2026)