Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 6/21/26 – By Eric Solomon

Happy Father’s Day to all of the dads out there in the ITM Universe. Monmouth Park has a pair of stakes races on their eight race card this afternoon with the Lady’s Secret and the Get Serious Stakes. The first post this afternoon is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a nice maiden special weight for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. The rails are scheduled to be set at 24 feet this afternoon. I’m going two deep here and I’ll make Olatz (#1) the top pick. Paco Lopez teams up with Lindsay Schultz in the opener with this filly who should be eager to get back on the grass. She ran a sharp third at the Fair Grounds in March before setting the tempo in a nine furlong maiden race at Keeneland two back. I don’t think she loved being on the lead in that race, but I also think it showed that she can sit closer to the front end than she did two back. Toss her last effort in a race that was taken off the lawn here. I think we’ll see a much sharper effort from her today. Chad Brown has a pair of runners here and the fact that Samuel Marin is riding the firster, Crossover Capital (#5), tells me that barn is higher on this runner than they are with Mistborn (#8). This French bred filly is sired by Zarak, whose runners have won 23% of their North American starts in turf route races. He’s foaled graded stakes winners like Laurelin, Village Voice and Parnac, along with Flatten the Curve who won a million dollar race at Kentucky Downs going 2 1/16 miles last summer. His runners can run all day, so longer distances might be what this filly is going to do best. In the event this race is a bit short for her, don’t be surprised if she shows up in an 11 furlong race at the Spa in her next start, where I think she could be very dangerous. 

Race 2:

Six runners will sprint six furlongs in this $25K-$20K maiden claiming race. The three New Jersey breds in this field run with the waiver so they are not eligible to be claimed. Paco Lopez lands on Waitin’onasunday (#2), who is the favorite in this spot. He’s dropping in class after a failed turf effort in his last start. He makes sense at this level, but I do think he’s going to have to deal with Hillsborough Eight (#1) to his inside, and if Mighty Milo (#3) can run a bit, I imagine he’s going to be sent as well. There’s a scenario where he’s caught in between runners, and for a horse with seven losses already, I’m not sure that is the best thing. If Johnny Bay Goode (#5) can continue to progress, I think he’s going to get a nice set up at this level. He missed the break when facing better last time out. He rushed up a bit, and then faded to be 5th, beaten four lengths that day. He drops back to a better level for him while boasting a nice improvement pattern in his first three tries. I think he can run by them all in the stretch. Irish Indygo (#4) likely wants to go longer, but I do think this New Jersey bred son of Irish War Cry will improve in his second start off the layoff. He was flat when he had to deal with an 11 length winner at this level in his first start in almost a full year last month. Perkins is likely giving him one more sprint before stretching him out again. When he does, I’ll likely be more bullish on this gelding, assuming that he does move forward in this race today. 

Race 3, The $100K Lady’s Secret Stakes:

Much like the four stakes races last weekend, this race offers free entry into a race on the Haskell undercard. The winner will receive a fees paid berth into the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher Stakes, which will be a part of the biggest day in thoroughbred racing of the year in New Jersey. While Inefficiency (#2) was a little better than her rival,  in the Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes at Aqueduct last month, I think this is a great spot for Dry Powder (#1) to turn the tables today. This four year old filly was an easy and impressive winner of the Cathryn Sophia Stakes at Parx last summer, easily beating a large field that afternoon. She gave Clicquot all she could handle in the Grade 1 Cotillion, losing by a desperate nose that afternoon. She ended her season with a dull effort in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Her four year old campaign has not been great, but three of her four races this year have come at one turn. Her lone try at two turns came in the Grade 1 La Troienne at Churchill where she was no match for Shred the Gnar and Fully Subscribed. This filly is not yet a Grade 1 horse, but she’s certainly bred to be better at two turns. She caught Inefficiency last month a week after her defeat at Churchill. She draws the rail, gets Paco Lopez, and is getting two turns for the first time whereas her rival has only three starts, all going the one turn mile. The rest difference is the same and I think there’s much more to like with this filly, who is my best bet of the day.

Race 4:

We’ll move back to the turf for this $16K-$14K maiden claiming contest for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles out of the chute. Three runners ran at this level last weekend in the opener when a big longshot, Ronda World, took it to this field early and never turned back. Maxpower (#5) was making her first start at two turns in that race and Luis Rivera had a front row seat for that effort, which was contested at one mile. There’s even less speed signed on for this race on paper, so I think he’ll be on the engine early with this Maxfield filly, who is wheeling back quickly. I wouldn’t be surprised if those tactics work in this spot today. Paco Lopez rides one of two Juan Avila runners in this race. He’s named to ride Lady Hathor (#2), who will be making her third career start and her first for Juan Avila. She was away slow with $10K-$8K maiden claimers at Tampa in her last start. She improved her position to get up for 4th that day. Since then she was transferred to a barn that has a much higher winner percentage. Avila has great numbers with new acquisitions and since the start of last year, Lopez is 11-21 when riding for Avila here at Monmouth. These are the two I want in this spot. 

Race 5: 

It’s always worth mentioning that all of the multi-race wagers at Monmouth this summer are being offered with a player friendly 15% takeout. Both Pick-4’s fall under that category and this optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance sprint ends the Early Pick-4 and starts the Late Pick-4. It;s also the last leg of the Early Pick-5 and the second leg of the Late Pick-5, so many horizontal wagers are attached to this one. Guapo Again (#3) was “muy guapo” when winning a $5K starter allowance race last month. Paco Lopez was the rider that day and while he hops off to ride Grant the Great (#4), for Kelly Breen, I think this hard-trying seven year old gelding has the edge in this spot this afternoon. Apprentice rider, Yedsit Hazlewood, has made quite the impression in Maryland, winning 25% of his races in 2026. He is scheduled to make his Monmouth Park debut for Michael Simone with this eight time winner. Despite being an older runner, having the talented apprentice rider means that there’s no weight advantage for the three year old, Grant the Great. While his ceiling is undoubtedly higher, he’s going to have to bring his A game in his third career start to beat this gelding. The presence of Saint Ephrem (#7) on the outside is also going to make life difficult for Grant the Great. Hazlewood should be able to work out a nice stalking trip here and make his move. I’ll cover with Grant the Great, but a pace meltdown type race could benefit another seven year old gelding. John Jay (#6) is making his third start off the layoff today. He pulled off the 9-1 upset at this level on Haskell Day last summer. While I didn’t touch him that day, he reminded me what he’s capable of when he’s right. He ran well on the turf in his last start and could benefit from a quick pace in front of him. 

Race 6, The $100K Get Serious Stakes:

The first five furlong dash of the meet comes up in this $100K stakes race for three year olds and up. Note that Nothing Better (#4) was a winner at Penn National on Thursday night, and while it’s possible they could wheel him back quickly, I think it’s much more likely that he defects and waits for the Wolf Hill Stakes on Haskell Day to make his next start. Assuming he defects, that will take a lot of the weight off the should of Speed Figures (#3), who is trying to win a stakes race for the first time in his career. I think Nothing Better was the only runner in the field that could go with him in the early stages. There’s no secret to what he wants to do, as speed is the name of his game. I don’t think Coppola (#6)is fast enough to go with him early anymore and both Alogon (#1) and Governor Sam (#5) are probably better at 5 ½ furlongs. While Souper Quest (#2) was in front when drilling a 20:2 opening quarter in the Silks Run at Gulfstream in March, I don’t think that’s his winning formula. The price should be fair on Speed Figures as Paco hops off to ride his graded stakes winning gelding, Governor Sam for George Weaver. While he’s getting some needed class relief, I think he might run out of time in this race. Should Nothing Better opt to run back on very brief rest, I would likely favor Governor Sam. 

Race 7:

This is a very interesting, beaten $50K-$40K claiming race going six furlongs. ALl seven runners in this field are three years old, despite the race being open to older runners that qualified under the N2L condition. Follow the Fellow (#2) is a two-time winner and both Charlie Mac Mac (#4) and Tough Guy Tony (#7) are three time winners. It might be worth noting that even though this race will read “Clm 50-40B” for 3↑ in the PP’s, it’s really much more of an open $50K-$40K for three year olds. Thunder Chuck (#5) is the play for me in this race. After some experimenting,  I think one turn racing is what this Good Magic gelding is going to do best. He ran well to be second when battling for the lead in a 5 ½ furlong race on the dirt that was taken off the grass in his last start. He’s shown that he’s capable of sitting off the pace and making a run, which I think will serve him in this spot as there are several runners that seem to want the lead in this spot. His lone win came on this course last season and I think he’s classier than some of the other runners in this spot. Tough Guy Tony (#7) might try to get a similar kind of trip in this race. He was a stakes winner in the slop at Penn National in the winter. He’s been overmatched at Parx and Aqueduct in his last two starts. While he’s likely to prefer a wet track, the class relief for him will be welcomed. Bonsai Warrior (#1) was thrown into the wolves den when he ran in the Grade 3 Penn Mile on the turf in his last start. He showed some early zip, but once the real running began, he wasn’t able to keep pace with the likes of Alpyland, Immortalized, and Honey Dutch. He just missed in his first local start here last month. I like the rail draw for the race he wants to run. 

Race 8:

We’ll close out a strong card with a maiden special weight for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. While Guitarist (#1) and Market Timing (#7) are going to take the bulk of the wagering dollars in this one, I’m going to try Decimated (#5) on top in this spot. He’s making his second career start and his first try at two turns on turf. He ran into a strong duo in his debut on the dirt and he was slow to find his best stride in the early stages of that race. While he did get going late, there’s reason to believe that he could be better on the grass. The third place finisher in that race came back to win earlier in the week at Parx. Munnings gets 9% winners with turf runners in their first route. He’s the first foal to race from an unraced dam who is from an A.P. Indy. The two turn pedigree is there and there is enough in his pedigree to make me believe he could compete with this crew on the grass. Guitarist makes sense after fading in the Jersey Derby in his last start. Amo Racing shot their shot with this $900K son of Quality Road. While he was last in that race, I don’t think he was embarrassed either. This is major class relief and he’s getting a fairly soft group for the condition. He should be a heavy favorite in this spot, but if the Chad Brown runner takes some money, the price on him could be a bit more desirable. I’m going to take a wait and see approach with Market Timing. The turf pedigree isn’t there and the fact that he debuted on the dirt when making his only start 14 months ago tells me that the original thought was that this one was going to be better suited for the dirt.

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 27/105 (25.7%), $159.70 ($1.52 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet