Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday 7/12/26 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll close out the week with an eight race card with a lot of turf action. Five races are on the lawn including the Irish War Cry Handicap, which was rescheduled from last week. Post time for the first race this afternoon is 12:50 PM (EDT) before we turn the page to Haskell Week.

Registration is open for the $1,00 Haskell Handicapping Challenge on Saturday. This tournament will strictly be online. All of the info is linked below for anyone looking to get involved.

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/1000-haskell-handicapping-challenge-2/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll get our first look at two year olds on the grass this afternoon as there’s a field of 8 babies going five furlongs in the opener. The rails will be set at 12 feet for all five turf races on the card. I’m comfortable using two runners in this race. I’ll try a firster, The Wrath of David (#4), who ships in from Parx for Kathleen DeMasi today. He’s sired by Oscar Performance, who gets 18% winners from his debut runners in turf sprints. The first two runners from this dam were competitive in their debut races. British Sea just missed in her debut at Ellis in 2023 when going one mile on the turf and Run Aaron Run was second on the dirt at Delaware last month when he debuted. The turf course at Parx isn’t ready yet, so all of his works have been on the dirt. Andrew Wolfsont is slated to make the trip to ride. Justintimeformusic (#7) has a race on the dirt under his belt where he finished 4th against a decent field. The runner up came back to score here last weekend on the dirt. He’s a half to Faypien who was a Grade 2 winner on the dirt for Bob Baffert. She didn’t win a race on the turf, but she just missed in the Grade 3 Intercontinental Stakes at Belmont when it was run at seven furlongs on the lawn. 

Race 2:

Six are entered in this beaten $12,500-$10,500 claiming race going six furlongs on the dirt. Ball of Fire (#2) has four career wins and My Man Money (#5) is a two-time winner. The other four runners here all qualified under the N2L condition, however, all four of those runners are dropping in class for this race. Sir Newtons Laws (#3) has been trying to get back to his winning form that he showed here on debut last summer. He’s a state bred runner going to open company, but don’t be fooled here; he has been facing some decent horses. He cuts back to a sprint today while adding blinkers for the first time. Thunder Chuck (#4) has been inexplicably bad in two of his last three starts. He takes a sharp drop in class today, which helped his cause two back when he did rebound and put together a better effort. His only career win came on this course last season. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will dash 5 ½ furlongs on the lawn in this race. I really liked the effort from Moonblaze (#3) at Penn National last month when making her first start since the fall of 2024. She tried the turf for the first time and did not break well. Being that far back on the turf at Penn is typically a big disadvantage, especially in a sprint race. She tipped out and came with a bold bid to be second, only a length behind the race winner. Blinkers go on and she’s getting an extra half furlong to help her cause today. Wolfsont will also ride this filly for DeMasi. The backup for me is the favorite, Prima Donna (#4). She hit the board in both of her maiden allowance races at the Fair Grounds over the winter. Both of those races came at one mile on the turf. The cutback in distance off the layoff is enough of a question mark to consider looking elsewhere. However, I do want to be backed up with her. 

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go six furlongs in this $25K starter allowance race. In addition to having a start for a $25K tag under their belts, all runners here must also be eligible for the N2L condition. New York invader, Solomoni’s World (#3) looks for some class relief after a few tries in state bred starter allowance company on the NYRA Circuit. He was sharp in his prior two tries against open claimers at the Big A, so I do think he’s in with the right crowd here. Couches Burning (#1) will be the favorite in this race after a big maiden score here two starts ago. He was in tight early in his first try against winners. He came with a wide bid, but leveled off in the late stages. He’s dropping in class despite being protected from the claim here. I’ll back up with Socialbly Johnny (#7) who is coming off a decent effort at a price in a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race. He was trending up before a disastrous effort on the turf at Tampa over the winter. He missed a bit of time and has started to regroup. He was sharp in his third try of his last form cycle, so I can look past the bump up in class. 

Race 5, The $75K Irish War Cry Handicap:

The race of the day is a stakes race for New Jersey breds going one mile over the turf course. There is a lot of early speed signed on for this race, but there are no true closers that realistically could contend at this level. Gold Trust (#6) and There Are No Words (#7) met in this race last year when He’spuregold won his 5th consecutive trophy in this race. Gold Trust is more of a sprinter and There Are No Words has done his best work at two turns. Gold Trust broke directly inside of There Are No Words last year in this race and bumped him from the start, allowing him to set a modest pace. That’s significant because There Are No Words is typically a “need the lead” type of horse. Three of his four wins have come in races where he led every step of the way. While Gold Trust has inside position again, I think his best chance to score is to try to sit a pocket trip just in behind the leaders. Midnight Story (#9) seems to be compelled to have to send from his outside draw here. That should ensure an honest pace, which could help a horse that can handle stalking the pace. This gelding was very sharp at the end of the season last year and I think he’s going to appreciate the class relief today. He’s coming out of some very salty turf sprints at Laurel and Saratoga where he wasn’t involved. I’m expecting a much sharper effort today. There Are No Words is too classy not to have covered, but it;s hard to invest in a favorite that has finished second or third 4.5 times more than he’s won. While I think he’ll appreciate the absence of He’spuregold, he often seems to find a way to come up a bit short, especially in stakes races. J J Zo Zo (#5) is a longshot that I’m interested in this race. This will be his first ever try at two turns. His lone start at one mile on the dirt came in the Champagne Stakes against Chancer McPatrick in 2024, so I think it’s fair to not worry about that effort. He ran well to be second to Gold Trust in the Joey P, Handicap here at the end of the season last year. He lost all chance at the break in the John J. Reilly Handicap when stumbling out of the gate in his first start of the year. This is a new test for him, but if he can get the distance, I think he’s one that could be finding some energy late. 

Race 6:

The $3 Late Pick-3 begins with a $5K starter allowance race for three year olds and up going a mile and 70 yards on the dirt. Unlike the 4th race, there are no other qualifiers for this contest, other than the fact that they must have started with a $5K tag at least one time in their career. There doesn’t appear to be anyone stopping Skylander (#6) from seizing control of the early lead here. That was a winning formula two starts back when facing lesser. He moved up in class off the claim, while cutting back to a sprint. He was never involved in the outcome that day. He’s back to two turns and he’s getting the benefit of having an aggressive veteran rider in the irons. Tiger Moon (#4) ran a big race on the front end last time out. However, that’s not typically his style. He has been able to pair some his bigger efforts together. He’s been in the money in all four local starts, but he’s failed to win any of those races. 

Race 7:

Both legs of the $5 Late Double will be contested on the turf, starting with this optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance race going 5 ½ furlongs. If Ever (#6) closed like a good thing in his second career start, getting up in the nick of time to score. Shug McGaughey brings this son of Not this Time back to the Jersey Shore to face winners for the first time. There is a lot of speed signed on, so his late kick could be valuable once again. Cold Feet (#5) has been sharp in his last two starts. He had his number taken down in a highly competitive race here two weeks ago. He did all of the heavy lifting up front that afternoon only to have his number come down. He’s a dual surface threat and he knows how to win races. He has other speed to contend with, but he’s a win candidate regardless. Pivotal Moment (#4) comes here for Miguel Clement after finishing second at long odds at this level in New York. While the Saratoga races at this distance and class level are highly competitive, I’m not sure I love the appearance of him coming here. Clement’s runners have struggled here as only one of seven have found the Winner’s Circle. 

Race 8:

11 runners plus an AE are set to go one mile in this state bred optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance contest. Frankie G (#1) was entered in the Irish War Cry Handicap last week, but when that race was re-drawn, he opted to drop out in favor of this race. He’s a much better fit with this level and the rail draw complements his front-runner style. Others want to be forward here, but he should be able to control the tempo, which can be valuable in big fields at this distance. Smuggler’s Gold (#3) gets back on the turf after struggling in a race at Delaware that was taken off the lawn. His effort two back at Laurel against a better field of open N2X types was solid. He had two wins in state bred allowance company last year. He’s in for a tag in a field where he can compete. Wild Jamie (#6) typically wants to be up front, but he showed a new dimension last out when coming from last to first to score in a N3L claiming race. He’s in with state bred competition again on his favorite course. This is a step up, but he’s in good form. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 39/145 (26.9%), $216.30 ($1.49 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet