Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 8/16/26 – By Eric Solomon

Five of the eight races this afternoon at Monmouth are carded for the turf. The rails for each race will be set at 12 feet today. First post is set for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Chad Brown sends out a pair of two year old fillies in this maiden special weight contest going one mile over the turf course. While I think there will be a ,lot of attention paid to the $400K yearling purchase, She’s Georgeous (#4), I do think it’s fair to point out that this filly is based at Saratoga and if she’s not racing there, it likely means they don’t think she belongs there. That doesn’t mean she can’t compete at this level here at Monmouth, but it does make me want to look elsewhere, especially if she’s a short price. While I see her as a backup, I prefer his locally based filly, Market Perception (#6). This Klaravich homebred is sired by freshman sire Olympiad. That horse was special on the dirt, but there were definitely grass influences in his pedigree. He has a debut winner at two turns on the turf already and I think we’re going to see that some of his offspring will thrive on the lawn. There’s a pair of Violence first time starters in this race and I think the one that I prefer is Burping Bubbles (#2) for Terri Pompay. She’s not great with first time starters, but this filly is a half to a speedy gelding that has been sharp in grass sprint races. Carvaggio is the sire of that runner, so it’s not surprising that he excels at a shorter trip. The dam was better at two turns though and Violence gets 12% winners when routing on the grass for the first time. 

Race 2:

State bred fillies will go six furlongs on the dirt in this $100K N2X claiming race. I’m not going to side Shaun the favorite, Last Flag Flying (#2). She was excellent when breaking her maiden in a state bred maiden allowance race early in the meet. She ran into some heavy hitters in the state bred ranks when trying N1X allowance company. However one of those races was a route on dirt and the other was a turf sprint. She’s back doing what I think she’s going to do best and she’s getting serious class relief while doing so, Cool Spite (#3) is the backup since she just appears to be faster and classier than the other four runners left over.

Race 3:

Three year olds and up  will sprint 5 ½ furlongs in a $40K-$30K N2L claiming race. While I don’t know if he’s going to get the right kind of trip to win on this course, I do think Razorcat (#3) found his niche as a turf sprinter over the winter at the Fair Grounds. The longer stretch likely suited him there, but he was able to pair his maiden winning Beyer figure with the Beyer from her allowance effort at Keeneland in the spring. He was never a factor when he  tried two runs in his most recent start at Churchill. I think the class drop and the return to a sprint gives him a decent shot in this one. Man With the Money (#1) was a maiden breaker here earlier in the meet. He had a little extra time off before returning at Delaware over a yielding course. He ran okay to be third that day, but I do think a firmer course will be more suitable for him. The morning line favorite is the NYRA invader, Slay Sadie Slay (#2). He took a big step forward when getting on the turf for the first time in his most recent start. While that’s an angle I typically like, I don’t love how he finished up in that race. His legs were definitely heavy in the final furlong. I think Man With the Money can keep him honest in this spot, which may make things more difficult for him in the end. 

Race 4:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a maiden special weight race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. I like Run Wild (#3) a lot in this spot. Miguel Clement has this three year old son of Gun Runner in a good spot for his first dirt route race. He’s a full brother to Unique Insight, who took a big step forward in his first two turn dirt race. He won two races at nine furlongs in New York before ending his career with a 4th place finish behind Antiquarian in the Peter Pan Stakes. This filly tried two turns on the turf in his most recent start at Delaware where she finished 3rd as the beaten favorite. I think that race will give her valuable experience going into this race. I like her much better on top than the morning line favorite, Tejanita (#1). I have been betting against short priced professional maidens  over the last few weeks and by enlarge, that strategy has not been working well. However, from a long term perspective, trying to beat these runners when there in competitive races is a sound strategy. 7-2 or higher would be the buy-in I’d be looking for to get on board with her. However, I still think Run Wild is the most likely winner of this race. 

Race 5: 

We’ll have another maiden allowance race for fillies and mares, this one going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. Jorge Duarte and Colts Neck Stables have not been as active at this meet with their runners as they have been in recent years, however, I like the uncoupled entry that they’re trotting out in this spot. Take Home Gold (#2) is the top pick in this spot, as she gets back on the grass and back to a sprint after faltering on the dirt in a race taken off the turf at Colonial in her last try. She’s a full sister to Goldwood who was so good on this course, they named a turf sprint stakes race after her. She won four turf sprint stakes races in a row here at Monmouth ni 2019. She paired her Beyers in her last two two turf sprint races so in spite of the dull effort last out, which was completely forgivable, I think she’s in line for a better effort today. The shorter priced option from this barn is Sprtizin’ Around (#6), who is making her second career start this afternoon. She showed some early zip in a six furlong maiden race on the lawn at Colonial in her last start. While she faltered late in that spot, I do think that race gave her valuable experience moving forward here. Chad Brown is represented in four races on this card and in this spot he sends out Asset Light (#4). This has the look of trying to figure out what this filly is going to do best. She was beaten 11 lengths on debut in a dirt sprint and she was beaten 15 lengths in a turf route in her first two runs. She stays at Monmouth where she’ll cut back to a sprint. Despite the high profile connections, I do think there are some flaws in this one’s game. She might be good enough where that doesn’t matter though. 

Race 6:

The featured race is an optional $40K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year olds and up going six furlongs on the dirt. Both Gianluca Be Lucky (#2) and  Follow the Fellow (#3) want to be out front. On paper, there isn’t really any danger outside of these two in terms of making the lead. The question is how hard will they make each other work? The table is going to be set nicely for the morning line favorite, Re Markably (#5), assuming he;s able to maintain his strong form. He’s been fairly sharp since being claimed by Panagiotis Synnefias a few starts back. His last two efforts against lesser have been two of the best of his career. I’m not really sure how deep the ratings handicap group where he was third last out. If he runs back to his last two, I think he’ll get his photo taken. I’ll use both speed horses as backups because they’re both quick enough to run away and hide if the other blows the break.

Race 7:

Mid Summer (#1) is the pick in this optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. This well-bred three year old filly just missed in her last start, which came on Haskell Day when facing winners for the first time. She locked in a dead heat for second with Mrs. Katz (#5), who she’ll have to handle once again in this race today. She’s making her third start off the layoff after essentially pairing her last two Beyers, I expect her to move forward in this race. Cozy Rosie (#3) cost her connections $350K and they were treated to a debut victory at  Delaware Park in her one and only career start. While her dam’s other runners have had a mixed bag of success, I’m expecting her to run well once again in this race. On deeper tickets, I’ll use the Chad Brown runner, Scarlett’s Halo (#6). She lacks early tempo, which absolutely concerns me with  taking her at a short price in this race. If Brown has two wins or more coming into this spot, the price will likely be well below fair market value in the win pools. 

Race 8:

We’ll close out the card with a state bred maiden special weight for fillies and mares going 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. I’ll give another look to My Alena Marie (#6) in this spot. She took money in her debut on the dirt back in May, but she dwelt badly at the start and was never involved that afternoon. She’s been working well since that race though and. The dam was strictly a dirt horse and her offspring have preferred the dirt as well. Dialed In does get 11% winners in turf sprints from horses he’s sired. Life Raft (#9) draws the outside post and is actually dropping class after finishing a distant second place finish in a race against winners last out. She’s clearly more effective on turf and should be in the thick of it. On deeper tickets, I toss in Aria D (#1). Speed is the name of her game and she’s back on her preferred surface after the rain took her last start off the lawn. I’d like her better if this race was going at five furlongs, but I do think there are staminal imitations for this one who could be struggling late. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 63/239 (26.4%), $374.10 ($1.57 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet