Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 8/23/26 – By Eric Solomon

There’s a nine race card today on New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival Day. All nine races are restricted to horses that were bred in the Garden State. There are three state bred handicaps to go along with some competitive maiden and allowance races to make for one of the better wagering days of the season. First post this afternoon is 12:50 PM (EDT).

The $800 Travers Day Monmouth Park/Saratoga Contest will be the last handicapping contest at Monmouth during the live thoroughbred meet this year. That will be next Saturday (8/29) and the link  for registration and contest information is below. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/800-travers-day-monmouth-saratoga-contest-4/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival starts off with an optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race for fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course. I’m going with a price in this race, making Molly’s a Bullet (#7) the top pick. While her speed figures have been a little light in her first few starts at the meet, they are trending up. While she’s never won a race on the turf, she has had some competitive efforts on this course. She is going in the right direction and she’s facing a field that lacks a true standout. One Fine Wine (#3) is the favorite and the one to beat in this race. While she might be the most likely winner, she’s far from a lock. I do think Paco Lopez is going to put her on or very close to the front end, which does give her the best chance to score. She was not finishing very strongly in her last race at this level when she was the beaten favorite at 4-5. She’s tough to take at that number, but she is worth putting on the multi-race tickets. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Life Raft (#4), who was second at this level two starts ago, despite being a maiden at the time. She came back to score with state bred maiden allowance types last weekend. This is a quick turnaround, but she’s a three year old filly that is trending up for this spot.

Race 2:

I’m going to take a stand in this maiden special weight race and make the Parx invader, Change Your Boots (#1) the top pick and the lone A line runner in this race. Bobbi Hawthorne brought this four year old King Puma gelding to town at the end of June to debut in a contentious maiden special weight race with 11 runners. He showed some early zip before backing out of the picture to finish 8th that day. He returned to the work tab at Parx a month after that race and has been improving in the AM since then. Hawthorne takes another stab here in a race where the shorter priced options have all had multiple chances to break their maidens. If there’s improvement from his debut, he should be right in the mix here. J J Pacheco (#4) is one of those runners who has had multiple chances to get that elusive first win. This will be start number 12 for this gelded son of Engage. His last two races have shown improvement and he ran well on this card last summer. Why Me Lord (#6) is moving up in class after a third place finish with $10K maiden claimers here two weeks ago. He was a little green in that race, but she showed improvement from his prior start, where he was claimed. I have been a bit skeptical of this horse since they have ducked these races in his first three starts. He does fit with mild improvement though. 

Race 3, The $75K New Jersey Breeders’ Handicap:

The first of three state bred handicap races on the card should be a good showdown between Boardwalk Jack (#3) and Cairo Surprise (#5). They met in June in the John J. Reilly where Cairo Surprise  was clearly the better horse. However, Boardwalk Jack was making his first start of 2026 in that race while Cairo Surprise already had three starts under his belt. Boardwalk Jack came back to run a big race to be third behind Book ‘Em Danno and Quints Brew in the Mr. Prospector Stakes while Cairo Surprise went back to turf in the My Frenchman Stakes where he was the 3rd place finisher as the 11-10 favorite. I think this is the perfect spot for Boardwalk Jack to turn the tables on his shorter priced rival. He showed a ton of potential at the end of last year’s meet when he easily beat an open N1X allowance field. He has the tactical speed to stalk Cairo Surprise and I think he has the answer for him today in his third start off the bench. While Cairo Surprise has those two big efforts in the spring, one of them was on the turf and the other came on a sealed course. He’s going to be on a fast track today, so we’ll see how well that suits him. He’s more of a backup for me in this race though. I’ll also back up with St. Erling (#7) here. His best race came when he came from off the pace to score in a state bred N1X allowance race when he was still a maiden. He came right back at that level on the turf and was not nearly as effective. There is plenty of speed signed on for this race and he could be the one to benefit from that if there is a pace collapse. 

Race 4:

A dozen New Jersey bred two year olds are set to go 5 ½ furlongs on the dirt in this race. The state bred maiden special weight races on this card are usually some of the strongest races at this condition during the entire meet and this year is no different. There’s a good mix of well meant first time starters taking some some experienced runners here. I’m going to take a bit of a price on top in this race and make Epic Blockage (#8) the pick. He’s a first time starter from Chuck Spina’s barn, which has not had a ton of success with first time starters over the last few years. However, he sends out a homebred by Yaupon, who has been an excellent debut sire in dirt sprint races early on in his stallion career. The dam has produced quality horses, including My Beautiful Belle, who was a winner in open stakes company in a dirt sprint race here at Monmouth. She was a winner on debut as a two year old and was also trained by Spina. That mare was foaled by Munnings, who is also a strong debut sire. Some of the dam’s other runners were well-prepared at first asking as well. The works are solid, so I do feel this colt is well-meant in this wide open race. Even Up (#5) has two starts under his belt, facing open maiden allowance types here. He was well-backed in both races, but came up short in the final furlong both times. He’s making his third start now and has paired his first two Beyer figures. Oftentimes, this pattern signals an improved effort in the next start. I seriously doubt he’ll be 6-5 in this race, so the price should offer more value. The morning line favorite is Neela Da Blue (#10), who is a first time starter for Kelly Breem and Paco Lopez. That team has been lethal at this meet, winning 50% of the time that they team up (10-20). Two of the dam’s five runners were debut winners, most notably, Liz’s Cable Girl, who was a winner of 13 of 28 starts and had multiple stakes scores. The value is not likely going to be there, but there’s enough there to get behind this daughter of Sea Wizard, who is also a very good debut sire. On deeper tickets, I’ll toss in Sun Tan Man (#2). He’s the first foal to race from the mare Alta Velocita, who was a stakes winning sprinter here at Monmouth. He’s been prepping at Delaware, and while my gut  thinks that he’ll need a start before we see his best, I do think there is some ability here. His sire Engage has sired 7 winners from 35 starters (20%) that debuted in a sprint race on the dirt.

Race 5, The $100K Charles Hesse Handicap:

The race that ends the Early Pick-5 and starts the Late Pick-5 is a 1 1/16 mile contest for older New Jersey breds on the main track. While most of the money in this race should go through J J Zo Zo (#1) and Happy Offering (#6), I think this is a good spot for Forever Chocolate (#4) to pull off the upset. This is a seven year old gelding that was still very sharp last season. His first two starts of this year have not been his best, but those were both tough races. He clearly needed the race when he returned in the John J Reilly where he was up against Cairo Surprise, who ran huge. He came back in an open N2X allowance race where he was no match for La Frost, who came back to be third in the Iselin Stakes last week. Rory Huston’s runners tend to need a few races before they’re at their best. I think this one fits nicely from a pace perspective and I think he could be the one that has the best chance to beat the shorter prices. J J Zo Zo showed a dimension when winning the Irish War Cry Handicap on the turf. He looked like a horse that was going to be better suited to one turn racing, but after his last performance, I believe that this distance is within his range. He’ll need to prove he can do it on the dirt, but he has sharp efforts on this course in the past. Happy Offering reunites with Paco Lopez who guided him to victory in a 1 mile and 70 yard N1X allowance race here in may. He was no match for J J Zo Zo on the grass two back, but he was much sharper in his latest try. Chuck Spina has kept him in good form throughout the meet and he figures to be tough here. 

Race 6:

11 fillies and mares are entered in this optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance sprint. This is a race where I’d want to try to get skinny. I really liked the debut effort from Magical Cry (#4) here last month. She blew the break, and was slow to find her stride in the first quarter mile. After that, she figured things out and despite being a little green in the stretch, she blew that field away, winning with relative ease. She faces tougher while trying winners for the first time. However, she is well bred and from a good barn that will have her ready for this challenge. I think she will break better and sit midpack before making her move against some tiring frontrunners here. Stormy Girl (#3) is one of those frontrunners that will be under pressure in the late stages. She was really good in a tough race on debut, but she was flat in her last try at this level. I do think she has a better race in her and if she can kick clear early, she might be tough to catch. 

Race 7:

We’ll go back to the turf for this optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race where the gate should be full. Despite the large numbers, there isn’t a ton of speed signed on for this race. With an inside draw, Frankie G (#3) should have a relatively easy time making the lead. He cleared the open N2L claiming condition in his last start, beating a next out winner in Mo Action. He showed that he’s capable of running faster races though. He broke from the rail and had a rough trip at this level two back, but I do think he’s better than that effort. See the Truth (#5) has been in tougher races of late. He was well beaten in the Irish War Cry, but getting a little tangled with Happy Offering certainly didn’t help his cause. He was a handy winner at this level last year so he’s racing with the $15K tag in this spot. Paco Lopez will get the assignment for the first time. Smuggler’s Gold (#2) was also a winner on this course at this condition last summer, so he’s also in for the tag today. He was a game third behind two talented veterans at this level in his latest try. He’s been sharp in both turf route races in 2026.

Race 8, The $75K Eleven North Handicap:

Many familiar faces will battle in this sprint handicap for New Jersey bred fillies and mares. La Resonlana (#2) has yet to lose at this meet, and she’s done it in a variety of situations. She scored on the turf, in the slop, and on a fast track in her latest start where she was a handy winner. She’s proven that she’s capable of running bigger races, and she’s going to need to do just that to win here. However, Paco Lopez returns and I think this three year old is going to run her best race yet to beat these older ladies. Summer’s Comin (#7) is looking for her second state bred stakes score of the meet as she was the winner of the Spruce Fir back here in May. She struggled against open company in a turf sprint in her last try, but she’s been better in dirt sprint races. Jewel of the Ocean (#8) is another familiar face who is looking to atone after a dull try in the slop in the Regret Stakes in the slop. She faced a much the best winner on that wet track. There’s no one of the caliber of Echo Sound in this race. She got the better of Summer’s Comin on the turf two back in the Jersey Girl, and she was one length behind that one in the Spruce Fir at this distance. SHe figures to be right in the mix as well. 

Race 9:

The day ends with a maiden special weight contest going one mile over the turf course. This is not the strongest field for this condition. I’m going to take a shot with I’m Going Cruising (#7) on top here. The dirt starts have not been good, but all three of those races came against much better fields than he’s seeing today. The dam was sired by Kitten’s Joy and while she did her best work at two turns on the dirt, she foaled three runners that have won on the lawn. His figures on dirt aren’t far off from where they’d need to be to score here, so I’m betting on improvement in his turf debut. Howitzer (#5) looked the part when finishing second in a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race here against open company at the beginning of the month. He led most of the way before being nailed in the late stages of that one. He moves up in class, but again, this is not a very good group for this condition. He’s a threat to wire this field. Azario (#6) makes his first start since being moved into Carrasco’s barn. He does well with new runners and getting Paco Lopez to ride once again doesn’t hurt his chances. He doesn’t have a lot of early speed, so we’ll see how Paco opts to ride him here.

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 75/283 (26.5%), $439.90 ($1.55 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet