Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Friday, November 12, 2021

AQUEDUCT – 11/12/21

RACE 1: 2-4-1-3

#2 DEMANDSRESPECT debuted during a period of time when trainer Chad Brown’s barn was very quiet. While this filly debuted in a particularly weak looking heat, she still made a late move despite trouble in a slow paced race. Having that experience behind her and more time is a positive.

RACE 2: 10-13-16-6

The switch to dirt could prove interesting for #10 SUBSIDIZE.  He last ran on dirt against much tougher at Keeneland and didn’t have the cleanest of trips glued to a subpar rail.  This is a good spot class-wise and the field that is left here after the surface change figures to be weak.

RACE 3: 1-2-5-4

#1 VEGAS WEEKEND returns off a layoff after being taken for 50k in a win going 9 panels.  She beat subsequent handy winner Suspended Campaign that afternoon and lands in a barn that is 29% with dirt starters first off claims coming back in 60+ days ($2.01 ROI).  The inside post should make her a stalk and pounce candidate.

RACE 4: 5-1-7-2

In an awfully mundane affair, #5 GIOCARE is the one to beat.  This Todd Pletcher trainee drops in for a tag after faring poorly in a key race last time out against better.  He has no speed and needs to be cajoled along early, so the more aggressive Luis Saez being in the irons is good.

RACE 5: 12-5-9-4

#12 PREDICTED ran a credible race on debut chasing a white hot pace going 7 furlongs then came back to fail stretching out in distance.  Trainer Tony Dutrow is putting blinkers on to keep him sharper early, and he is likely to face a considerably weaker field today than he did last time on the surface change.

RACE 6: 13-16-15-12

The surface change throws this race up for grabs, and #13 BANK ON ANNA has a decent pedigree.  The second dam here was graded stake placed, so there’s reason to believe she can have some talent.  The presence of an aggressive pilot is also a positive.

RACE 7: 1-3-6-2

#1 BLAME IT ON MARY is very quick early and appears as if she can get clear of this field.  She is a winner over a sloppy Aqueduct main track, so the more rain that falls, the better.  If able to get clear with no competition, she is a serious player

RACE 8: 15-14-16

#15 HALO CITY is a late runner who needs pace help in order to make an impact, but she’ll be a square price in this field.  There’s enough pace in here to set up her late bid given the presence of #14 PERFECT GRACE, who is definitely the one to beat.  Look for ‘Halo late in the game.

RACE 9: 1-10-6-7

As much as you want to find an alternative to #1 THE RIGHT PATH, he is clearly the one to beat here on the class drop.  The inside post is not ideal, but he has spent his whole career facing much better and has the tactical speed to stay within range from the start.

AQUEDUCT FALL STATS: 9-4-1-0                          $30.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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