Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Saturday, March 19, 2022

AQUEDUCT – 3/19/22

RACE 1: 5-4-12-9

#5 ALITE has had some unlucky recent trips relative to track condition and now figures to be a strong late threat on a positive jockey change.  If he can get some pace to run at early then he’ll be a serious late player.  The favorite just to his inside is one worth taking a swing against.

RACE 2: 4-7-2-3

#4 CONFORMIST has had the misfortune of landing on wet tracks in his last three starts and now adds blinkers in a spot where he is the one to catch.  Should the lead end up his for the taking, he is going to be tough to handle.  This field is also weaker than what he’s faced of late.

RACE 3: 2-8-4-1

#2 SPEEDING KID enters in good form and is first off a claim by a high percentage outfit.  Trainer Bill Morey is 30% with a $2.01 ROI first off the claim in dirt sprints over the last 5 years.  He has won with his last 3 starters in those categories to boot.  He figures to get a good trip spying the early speed.

RACE 4: 6-1-5-8

The record that trainer Tom Morley has amassed in the last year off the claim is solid, and #6 STRAIGHT SKINNY comes from a lesser barn.  Morley is 29% with a $3.58 ROI when it comes to dirt starters first off of claims over the last year ($3.58 ROI).  The way this race figures to unfold on paper will help given that he can sit just off the pace.

RACE 5: 6-13-1A-11

#6 RUN WHITE RABBIT was involved in a hot pace last time out and battled gamely before succumbing late.  He showed improvement on the class drop and now seems to have found the right spot class-wise.  The weight break is also a positive.

RACE 6: 7-4-12-3

The debut of #7 MODERN MIDAS was good enough to give him a second look in this spot.  Trainer Jeremiah Englehart is 22% with second time starting dirt sprinters in the maiden ranks over the last five years ($2.44 ROI).  This field looks deep and competitive, but you’ll get a price on this one.

RACE 7: 10-8-9-6

The strong debut from #10 TWEAQUED made her well fancied at the windows at 2nd asking and she wound up going wide on a day where you needed to save ground.  This is a perfect placement class-wise and she is set up well on the outside.  Look for her to stalk and pounce.

RACE 8: 6-1-7-5

#6 MONEY IN THE BANK is a late running type who was wide much of the way last time out on a surface where the rail was strong.  He now returns off a short layoff and will get a strong pace to run at in the late stages.  The price will be fair as well.

RACE 9: 1-6-4-3

#1 ROSEBUG figures to get a massive pace setup in here given that her five rivals are all speed types.  That should set things up for an off the pace type like this filly, who was also wide much of the way against the grain of the track last time out.  Look for her late in this spot.

RACE 10: 12-3-9-1

#12 KISS ME SMILE ran a fair race on debut and figures to improve with experience.  Being drawn outside the other speedsters is also a help given that she can stalk and pounce in this spot.  The lack of talent among the other experienced runners also adds to the appeal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Further reading