Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Sunday, December 19, 2021

AQUEDUCT – 12/19/21

RACE 1: 8-5-1-7

The class relief should do it for #8 U SHOULD B DANCING, as she has yet to see maiden claimers in 12 prior outings.  The outside post and lack of speed in this field puts her in a prime position, and her last race was arguably her best of 2021, even if on the wrong surface.  Look for her to get control at once.

RACE 2: 6-3-2-7

#6 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE is a late runner who was put at a disadvantage last time out trying to rally wide on the course.  She drops in class first off a claim by the high percentage barn of Rob Atras and figures to get a decent pace to run at late.  All signs point to her being a pretty solid favorite as well.

RACE 3: 4-5-2-3

#4 MAKINGCENTS has run well against tougher in the past and now looks to get her career restarted returning to NY bred company.  She faced considerably tougher last time out when 8th of 9 against N1X foes on this surface.  The winner of that race is likely a stakes horse and this filly now goes 2nd off the bench.  A stalk and pounce trip is in the offing.

RACE 4: 7-8-1A-4

The pace in this race figures to be soft and that will work to the advantage of #7 ALPINE QUEEN, who exits a solid effort at the 30k level.  She was closer to the pace that day than normal and stayed on well to snag the place dough.  The return to a dry strip should do her no harm either.

RACE 5: 7-6-9-2

After a poor break on debut, #7 TEMPERMENTAL was not persevered with in the stretch.  She should improve with that experience and with the blinkers being added, and her new rider will try from start to finish.  Expect serious improvement from her in this spot.

RACE 6: 4-7-5-6

#4 EMILIA’S MOON was not good last time out, failing at 3-2 in a rich allowance affair at Churchill Downs.  She was, however, out of the gate poorly and stuck behind a glacial pace going the same distance as today.  There will be far more pace on in this spot, and the field she faces here compares favorably to the one she did that afternoon.

RACE 7: 4-1-6

It’s easy to have become a fan of #4 DRAFTED, who has had a series of bad pace setups and tough trips.  He will get some pace to run at in here thanks to the presence of #6 CHATEAU, who has massive stamina issues.  The balance of the field is largely unimpressive and the price here will be appealing.

RACE 8: 4-8-2-5

The return to a dry surface could make a difference for #4 OLLIEMYBOY, who chased the pace before weakening going two turns at Churchill last time out.  The winner of that race came back to be competitive against stakes company at Oaklawn yesterday and this colt ran two races earlier in 2021 that would make him competitive here.

RACE 9: 5-1-2-7

Arguably the most interesting horse on the card is #5 SANDRO THE GREAT given that he got a horrendous ride in his last dirt start.  That effort came in late September over a surface that strongly favored inside speed, and this gelding was wide the whole way before spinning his wheels around the turn.  He showed some life in the lane and needs to be given another try on dirt against this kind of competition.

WINTER CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 42-9-9-5         $51.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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