Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Sunday, December 5, 2021

AQUEDUCT – 12/5/21

RACE 1: 10-3-7-8

#10 ROXEN gets a positive jockey change off a troubled trip 8th place finish against similar last time out at Belmont.  It is not documented in the running line, but this filly was away poorly breaking from the rail, then got into traffic trouble and was shuffled out on the turn.  A cleaner trip will help her in a race that unquestionably lacks a standout.

RACE 2: 3-8-7-5

When last seen 15 days ago, #3 AL’S ROCKET did everything but win. He was beaten just a neck after racing in some proximity to a hot pace and is clearly the one to beat.  Trainer Todd Pletcher is bringing him back quickly with turf season ending soon.

RACE 3: 8-1/1A-5-7

The outside post and dearth of confirmed speed in here helps #8 MAZAL EIGHTEEN, who figures to stalk and pounce from the start.  She improved on the move back to dirt last time out and is now re-united with the pilot who was aboard for her maiden score.  This is the right spot to try a bit of an outsider with the favored entry lacking a great deal of appeal.

RACE 4: 6-3-5-1

#6 TEMPLE was re-claimed by Mike Maker last time out and now moves up a notch in class after trying N2X company last time out. Maker had this gelding last year and he was graded stake caliber, so there’s reason to believe he can improve here.  His tactical speed is also a weapon with a moderate pace expected.

RACE 5: 7-6-4-3

With a decent pace expected in here, #7 BYHUBBYHELLOMONEY is interesting at a square price.  She was a game 2nd behind the favorite in here two back and now cuts back in distance.  This is the right trip for her, especially if the two projected frontrunners engage in an early battle.  You’ll get a square price here too.

RACE 6: 7-14-15-4

The public is likely to favor #4 NIKOSTRATOS over #7 EXCURSIONNISTE because the former bested the latter on October 23.  In watching the replay, you see that Excursionniste was stuck in traffic when the race developed and wound up losing momentum.  Ignore the dirt try in a compact field a week later and this is the horse to bet at overlaid odds.

RACE 7: 9-1-7-6

The debut effort from #9 AGILITY was very strong.  He advanced early to stalk a very strong pace before weakening in the stretch and is likely to improve with that race behind him.  The firsters in here are the main competition, and #1 RELATE is the most interesting of them.  That colt worked :20 and 3/5 at the OBS April sale and deserves consideration, even with the bad draw.

RACE 8: 11-2-7-8

If #11 GIRAMONTE is able to get into this field via scratches, then he is very interesting in his second try against winners.  This son of Tizway scored an impressive win two back against lesser, then endured a brutal trip in his next start.  He now draws favorably on the outside in what amounts to a pretty soft N1X save #2 PANSTER.

RACE 9: 7-9-6-2

The class drop that #7 BRAZILLIONAIRE is making today is far from subtle.  He was close to a very hot pace last time out and understandably tired late.  This is his second off a layoff and the drop in class is going to pay dividends.  Any of his 3 runs immediately after the claim would win this thing rather handily.

RACE 10: 12-4-7-9

#12 CAPTAIN BOMBASTIC cuts back in distance for trainer Steve Asmussen off a failed bid in the Empire Classic.  The winner of that race came right back to win yesterday’s Cigar Mile, and this son of Forty Tales has always been at his best sprinting.  There’s enough pace in here to set up his late bid, and the price will be attractive.

AQUEDUCT FALL STATS: 134-33-20-18                   $276.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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