AQUEDUCT ANALYSIS – 12/7/2024
RACE 1: 3-1-4-5
#3 MALU enters off a blowout win against N1X NY bred allowance runners where she stalked the pace and rolled clear late. That increased early foot makes her the one to beat here given the pace scenario expected. There’s no pace signed on in this affair and that will play into the hands of Kendrick Carmouche aboard this daughter of Lookin at Lucky.
RACE 2: 2-11-1-7
#2 GUNMAN JAYVO took real money for non-descript connections on debut, as he went off 6-1 in a field of 8. His race was over at the start when he broke poorly and then his woefully incompetent rider just went through the motions. He wound up hitting his stride late and galloped out with the winner, so there’s something there and having experience should only help.
RACE 3: 7-2-1-9
The debut run of #7 TREATY OF ROME was good enough for him to be the choice here at second asking for Chad Brown. This barn is a solid 32% with 2nd time starters in MSW races going long on dirt over the last 5 years ($2.15 ROI). Any improvement off that encouraging unveiling would make him very tough to handle.
RACE 4: 4-5-3-1
#4 MOVIE MOXY is the most interesting horse at a price in here as the favorites all have major knocks. In studying the Turnback the Alarm from two starts back it became clear the track was fair that day, and this mare ran very well to be a good second. She came back with a solid effort last time and now makes the third start of her form cycle, a time when most horses move forward in a major way.
RACE 5: 11-9-5-10
#11 P MUTTER PICKLE gets Lasix for the first time from an outside draw as she returns from a layoff. She was very good in her first two starts before faltering last time out against stakes company. The drop in class will help her cause and her recent workouts signal her readiness off the bench. She needn’t be much to contend here given the composition of this field.
RACE 6: 3-4-10-2
The strong second out numbers for Jorge Abreu make #3 UNWOKE interesting. She broke poorly on debut then put in a middle move before flattening out that day and will run better with experience. The runners in here who’ve been out before have hardly impressed, and that only adds to the appeal of this daughter of Lord Nelson.
RACE 7: 2-1-5-3
The favorite worth taking a swing against in this stakes sequence is in here, and #2 AVIATOR GUI is an interesting alternative. His rider was a little too confident last time out as he took him wide to make a middle move before flattening out. This is a spot where he can lay back and make one run, and everything about this colt screams long on dirt. His win two back came in a race that has yielded a total of 4 next out wins.
RACE 8: 1-2-8-10
#1 MUHIMMA is going to be impossible to beat based on her first two starts. She has been incredibly impressive each time, stalking the pace before pulling clear late. The dam side pedigree indicates that 9 furlongs and beyond should be no issue, as the 2nd dam here was Grade I winning turfer Pure Clan. She also earned graded stakes wins long on the dirt.
RACE 9: 9-1-11-5
No trip suits #9 SENOR BUSCADOR than a fast paced flat mile and that’s what he’s getting here. While it’s usually a good idea to avoid Breeders’ Cup alums in starts later in the year, this veteran ran huge in this race last year. There’s enough pace to set things up for his late bid and he will be a square price given the competitive nature of this field.
RACE 10: 6-4-7-5
#6 TREATY OBLIGATION has won two straight including a score off the claim last out for Linda Rice. He’ll bid for 3 in a row on a class jump and his tactical speed is a weapon. The fact he can sit just off the pace is important and he will be a good price given the size and competitive nature of this field.
