AQUEDUCT ANALYSIS – 12/15/2024
RACE 1: 3-5-7-1
#3 SHE’S WICKED SMART is the one to beat off a narrow miss against lesser last time out. Trainer Rob Falcone, Jr., who hits at a high percentage, is moving this one up in class as she’s now in for 40k and she has the speed to protect the inside position. There’s still upside given the improved run in her most recent outing.
RACE 2: 3-1A-4-5
The move from 50k at Churchill to 40k at Aqueduct is significant and it makes #3 GOURMET the one to beat. She goes 2nd off a layoff and faced tougher in her most recent start. Her tactical speed is a weapon and Kentucky shippers are auto-bets across the country at this stage. This barn has had significant success in NY over the years as well.
RACE 3: 5-2-3-6
The class drop for #5 ACOUSTIC AVE is significant as he goes 3rd off a claim this afternoon. When last seen he showed speed before fading late against a much better field. This is the right class level for this son of Maclean’s Music, even though he has clearly seen better days. The speed he still possesses is a weapon that can be put to good use today.
RACE 4: 3-5-4-1
#3 COLLECTED SPECIAL can be a threat off a claim this afternoon as he also shows up a new gelding. Rudy Rodriguez took this son of Collected for 16k off a barn that has struggled through the 2nd half of 2024 and immediately protects him from the claim box. That’s a positive sign for a barn that has gradually heated up of late.
RACE 5: 5-4-2-3
The limited opportunities on dirt for #5 RED BURGUNDY is significant as she makes a surface switch today for Horacio De Paz. Her lone prior dirt try came in a race taken off the turf and she now meets a weak field for this level/. She is bred more for the main track and figures to improve today at a square price.
RACE 6: 7-9-1/1A-2
Between #7 VOLATILE SITUATION and Sir Kartrite we’ll get a good line on the quality of the 5th race on 11/23 here at the Big A. This colt looked home free turning for home that day, even with a poor gate break, only to be outfinished by the eventual winner. He is clearly the horse to beat today and will be a very short price.
RACE 7: 7-3-2-1
#7 SIR KARTRITE is clearly the horse to beat as he makes his third career start following a game win last time out. He’ll be a very short price when all is said and done, but the quality of his last effort cannot be overlooked. The pace in there was solid and this gelding took heat the entire way en route to victory.
RACE 8: 10-11-8-5
#10 MR. SWAGGER goes first off a claim by trainer Wayne Potts. He most recently raced for Gary Sciacca and gets an upgrade in that are as he’ll now be ridden by Dylan Davis. The outside draw is ideal given the composition of this field and the quality of his back form coming into this event.
RACE 9: 9-2-8-4
Trainer Jorge Abreu scored a huge win on Saturday with Stone Smuggler and will seek another with #9 FAST AND FRISKY. She draws beautifully on the outside this afternoon and has the tactical speed to make noise throughout. She was ineffective on turf, but that’s no surprise given she’s clearly a turf horse.
RACE 10: 12-11-6-10
#12 BURN RUBBER has had limited opportunities so far, and that’s what makes him interesting. The other major players have run more and showed nothing, so you have to upgrade this son of 2019 Horse of the Year Accelerate. He draws nicely outside and clearly has a ton of speed given what we’ve seen so far.
