Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Friday, October 29, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 10/29/21

RACE 1: 6-3-2-7

#6 MOSTLY HARMLESS is the most experienced runner in this field and exits a troubled trip 3rd at 3-1 over this course.  This should be her first opportunity on a dry track and she should be closer early with a more alert start to the race.  The ability she has shown through two starts makes her the one to beat.

RACE 2: 1-5-4-6

In a mind-numbing high end claimer, #1 CROATIAN enters in very strong form for Wayne Potts.  This son of Medaglia d’Oro last raced for 30k and was up in time to score at Monmouth, stringing together a second consecutive improved performance off of a claim.  He has tactical speed and a heady rider, so expect a forwardly placed trip.

RACE 3: 7-3-5-6

#7 LADY VALENTINE is strictly the one to beat, even on the surface change.  Her debut run on dirt was far better than anything a rival in here has put forth on the main track and she has continued to run well, for the most part, on turf.  The blinkers going on should only sharpen her early and she drew well on the outside.

RACE 4: 6-1-2

Trainer Bill Mott got a tad ambitious with #6 SPEAKER’S CORNER last time out trying the Pennsylvania Derby and his charge ended up a distant sixth.  He was impressive two back, albeit against weaker, and now looms a major player on the drop in class.  His tactical speed and the blinkers going on should keep him in the mix from the start.

RACE 5: 5-9-12-8

#5 MISSY GREER was a promising second no debut for Danny Gargan and now looks to improve over slightly more distance.  She showed speed in that unveiling and stayed on well to snag the place dough over a rival with whom she battled early.  The distance should be no issue, and there’s obviously serious talent here.  OFF THE TURF: 16-15-14

RACE 6: 9-4-11-3

#4 RED LINE OVERDRIVE went for 900k at the Fasig-Tipton Florida Sale in March despite a ho-hum :10 and 2/5 workout and a modest pedigree.  There’s clearly something about the physicality of this colt that turned heads, and he has reportedly continued to train very well for a barn that has had 16 2YO debut winners so far in 2021.

RACE 7: 8-7-3-1/1A

#8 FETCHING is a late runner who was hurt by a slow pace last time out.  The move to 6 furlongs might help this daughter of Afleet Alex, as she ran well twice going 5.5 panels up north.  It will be incumbent upon Eric Cancel to keep her involved early, as she cannot lose precious ground in a compact field.

 

RACE 8: 4-3-9-1

#4 GREATEST LOVE looks better than her rivals here in a grab bag that should feature a decent early pace.  This daughter of Speightster was close to a moderate pace last time out and pulled clear in the closing stages to register another handy win.  While the waters get deeper here, she is in peak form and out of town shippers have cleaned up in dirt races this year in NY given the degradation of the NYRA dirt program.

RACE 9: 9-6-11-3

The fact that #9 MAXWELL ESQUIRE has not only handled boggy turf courses in the past, but that he endured a brutal trip last time out makes him interesting at a price.  His jockey last time couldn’t possibly have gotten him to the back of the pack faster, which is his wont, and he wound up buried in traffic for the final furlong.  The distance today suits him fine and he should get some pace to run at late as a live longshot.

RACE 10: 7-3-8-4

#7 ALPHA JO is by 7% debut sire Alpha and is out of a dam who did her best work on the turf.  Nonetheless, this filly is training well and has a hungry pilot aboard who will get her in the mix early.  She figures to be a price as well in a race that offers no clues on paper.

BELMONT FALL STATS: 227-52-37-27             $410.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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