BELMONT AT THE BIG A ANALYSIS– 10/19/2024
RACE 1: 2-4-7-1
The day’s opener marks the return of #2 LOCKED, a Grade I winning 2YO who was sidelined earlier in the year. The distance is likely much shorter than what he wants to go, and the pace scenario is hardly ideal, so there are clear knocks on this son of Gun Runner. With that said, he is much better than his competition and is supposed to win at a short price.
RACE 2: 1/1A-4-6-7
The coupled entry of #1 INDIANQUEST and #1A PROVE WORTHY is supposed to be tough for these to handle. Indianquest’s first two dirt starts are good enough to win this and he shows up off a break with Lasix as a new gelding. If he runs back to those, or if Prove Worthy improves off a claim, this pairing will score.
RACE 3: 7-4-5-1
Despite there being little to no pedigree for turf on #7 AVIATOR GUI, he is dangerous here for Chad Brown. He was victorious at second asking rolling home from well off the pace in an event taken off the turf. He now moves to the grass for the first time and should be rolling late in a race with a decent pace.
RACE 4: 3-1-8-12
#3 SALE LEASEBACK goes 2nd off a layoff for trainer Chad Brown and should be in a good spot to have success second time against maiden claimers. She was behind a repeat winner last time out in Past Tense, who came back to score on Friday afternoon for a new barn. This gal can improve here with that race behind her as well.
RACE 5: 1-5-8-9
#1 CAMERA was victorious last time out and wound up getting disqualified for interference in upper stretch. She is the one to catch today and can obviously handle the 9 furlong trip without issue. If able to get loose she is a serious candidate to stay the trip at what should be a good price based on the morning line.
RACE 6: 7-9-3-6
#7 HAVE YOU HEARD has had issues in recent starts, including an inside trip against a dead rail two outings ago. He was wide chasing against a strong field last time out and never made an impression. This is a far weaker field than what he’s faced of late and he’ll be the best price of the win candidates in this affair.
RACE 7: 7-6-8-9
#7 CALLING CARD stretches out in distance off a debut where he showed a bit of early interest and stayed on gamely to the finish. Trainer Mike Maker is 17% with maidens stretching out on turf over the last 5 years ($2.03 ROI) and this colt should find his way to the lead. Being in front is a good thing no matter what, especially in 2YO turf routes.
RACE 8: 4-1A-3-6
The two recent wins for #4 SECRET RULES show that he’s in top form and he now moves back down the class ladder to this 32k event. He has the ability to sit back off the pace and survey the early situation, which is a good thing given the expected race flow in here. Should the pace heat up early, he’ll be in position to capitalize late.
RACE 9: 2-9-5-1
The caliber of competition faced last time out by #2 MONDEGO was strong and he now catches a weaker group for Christophe Clement. There’s other speed in this field and that should give him a target in the closing stages. His best races make him a contender, and they have all come with this pilot aboard.
RACE 10: 7-5-3-2
Making a prolonged wide move at Kentucky Downs in a pace dominated race is an impossible spot and that’s where #7 PAPILIO found herself last time out. She should improve this afternoon with pace expected in front of her, and she is arguably the classiest filly in the race. The presence of the hot-riding Dylan Davis is a good thing.
RACE 11: 11-6-1-7
#11 BLAKE B. makes a great deal of sense here second off a claim after a subpar outing at Parx. He is drawn well outside and excels at this trip and over this surface. There’s real pace signed up in here and this gelding can be positioned anywhere in the opening stages. He is a major player at a fair price.
RACE 12: 6-7-9-3
My old friend #6 MASTEROF THE TUNES is interesting at a price in here given the trip she had last time out. Now she was never going to beat the winner, but she had a brutal go of it and should have easily been second. The concern here is she never wins, but she is likely to get some pace to run at and gets a more aggressive pilot who can keep her in the mix early.
The dae is wrong on the header.