BELMONT AT THE BIG A ANALYSIS– 10/20/2024
RACE 1: 3-2-4-5
#3 FACTOR ANALYSIS gave up so much ground while wide last time out at Saratoga and now adds blinkers while getting a key jockey change. Flavien Prat had another successful day on Saturday riding extensively for Chad Brown and is in the irons. This trip suits this son of Vino Rosso who should be more involved early with the shades.
RACE 2: 7-2-1-3
The outside draw for #7 ROMAN GODDESS is ideal as she can survey the pace scenario and pounce when ready/. She is in form after an improved outing last time out first off a claim and trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s barn has heated up of late. The best race she’s run came last time and she’s immediately protected from the claim box, which is a positive sign.
RACE 3: 3-4-2-6
Trainer Chad Brown thought highly of #3 OPULENT RESTRAINT prior to her unveiling and she was able to put it all together to win second time out. This is a great spot for her class-wise as she ran a race as fast last time out as any runner in the field. Her tactical speed is a major weapon as well.
RACE 4: 1-6-7-8
#1 CRUISE TO CATALINA is returning off a handy win last time out against N1X foes and now moves up in class while facing elders. This gal is not far off being a stakes caliber NY bred and has the speed to get control of this race from the start. There’s still a world of upside on a 4th time starter with ample early foot.
RACE 5: 8-9-6-1
#8 BACKED BY GOLD looks like the one to beat, even for connections that are particularly tough to trust at times. She drops significantly in class second off a claim and should be in a good spot stalking the pace from the outset. Her best races would make her impossible to beat, and those efforts largely came for lesser connections.
RACE 6: 7-9-3-6
#2 DREAM ON CARA made a wide move last time out on a day when the rail was gold. She can improve here with ascending speed figures in a race where the pace should be solid. While she has undoubtedly had many opportunities, she is in the best form she’s ever had and will be a square price today.
RACE 7: 7-10-8-2
The difference to me between #7 SARATOGA SNOW and #10 NATIONAL ARCHIVE is that the former has more speed. That should help her get more involved in the opening stages of a type of race that often goes to ones with pace. She ran well first time turf over this racetrack and the early foot she showed portends further development.
RACE 8: 3-1-6-8
#3 TYRONA is a late runner who got a good pace setup last time out and parlayed it into a win at 9/2. She should be a comparable price this time around in an effort to make it two straight for an owner that has had a huge BAQ meet. There’s enough pace in here to help her cause and only adds to her appeal.
RACE 9: 10-5-1-2
The pace edge held by #10 RED BURGUNDY is too significant to overlook as she appears to be the type that can get loose in the opening stages today. Her last race was very good, as she nearly made all before being overhauled late. The lead is hers for the taking and the presence of Flavien Prat only helps.
RACE 10: 1-4-5-7
#1 SINEAD is interesting cutting back in distance after showing big speed in her debut. She should be suited to the shorter trip and the blinkers coming off may help her relax just a tad. That’s not a bad thing, because she made it clear she has plenty of early speed in the positive debut run.
