BELMONT AT THE BIG A ANALYSIS – 10/17/2024
RACE 1: 5-6-4-1
The dam of #5 COUNTERINTELIGENCE was a Group III winner who actually ran in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Mile. There’s obviously real pedigree power here in a race where the experienced horses hardly overwhelm. This gal appears to be training well and should be one of the choices based on that gaudy pedigree.
RACE 2: 4-6-1
#4 GEOPOLITICS is a cinch based on her last outing, a dominant maiden win that puts her on a long range path to facing NY bred stakes foes. She should be on the lead in a woeful field, even for this level, and that would make her tough to beat. Her best races are simply far too good for her competition.
RACE 3: 6-5-2-4
There’s a real longshot opportunity for #6 KAHALA, who enters off a handy win against lesser at Finger Lakes. He is a late running type with the right pilot aboard in a race that should be run at a solid early clip. The back form of this son of Broken Vow is decent enough and he is arguably at his best currently for a dangerous barn.
RACE 4: 1-4-5-3
#1 TWILIGHT TANGO is the one to beat at second asking off a positive debut where this filly chased the pace. She should be quicker to the punch early in this spot and the presence of an aggressive pilot enhances her chances of winning today. The price here will hardly be appealing and that’s the only real negative.
RACE 5: 9-7-10-1
#9 FORE HARP is going to be overlooked in the wagering based on two subpar dirt efforts. Those are exactly the kind of horses you want to bet, as this veteran son of Weigelia gets back to his preferred strip. He ran a bang-up race three back at the Spa when 3rd in a key race and he should be in a good spot stalking the pace this afternoon.
RACE 6: 10-5-6-8
The favorite will be #10 CONFABULATION, who goes first off a claim by Linda Rice in search of a maiden win in career start #3. He has plenty of speed and should be in an ideal spot chasing the pace on the outside right from the start. He is spotted realistically off the claim for 20k and will be dangerous if able to duplicate his last effort.
RACE 7: 4-2-7-5
#4 YOUKNOWNOTHING drops in class as she faces elders for the first time in her brief career. She was last seen against stakes company and a wide trip negatively impacted her chances. The good thing is her pedigree is geared towards this longer distance, and her tactical speed should keep her more in the mix early.
RACE 8: 10-1-3-9
The post is not ideal for #10 SCHERZANDO, but there should be plenty of time before the field hits the far turn. This son of Maclean’s Music has had ample opportunities to break his maiden but has consistently run well against better. He returns on a class drop for a low percentage barn but lands in a soft field against whom he can be a major player.
