BELMONT AT THE BIG A – 9/28
RACE 1: 3-5-4-2
Though #3 NIKITIS bested #5 CAITLINHERGRTNESS when they met on closing weekend at the Spa, it was the latter who likely ran the better race. Nikitis is the preferred option given the added ground given the way she finished in that September 3 tilt. The prices should be comparable and ‘Caitlin does have a pace edge.
RACE 2: 3-5-4-2
#3 BOWL OF CHERRIES has consistently run dirt races that are better than those of her rivals in this field. Predicting how runners from this barn will perform is often an exercise in futlity, but she sports the right credentials to be viewed as a very likely winner today. The main competition for her would have to improve by 10+ points to be competitive.
RACE 3: 9-6-4
#9 QUALITY CHIC is clearly the horse to beat here off a narrow miss on opening day of the BAQ meet. He is a 9-race maiden but has come to life again since relocating to the barn of David Jacobson and he is going to meet a weak bunch today after the surface switch. Expect him to score at a short prce.
RACE 4: 6-5-4-1
The maiden win from #6 CERTIFIED LOVERBOY was eye-opening in that he stalked the pace comfortably, took over and powered clear with authority. He should be in an ideal stalk and pounce spot again and trainer Ray Handal sports a solid 19% strike rate with dirt starters off maiden wins over the last five years, good for a $2.85 ROI.
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RACE 5: 10-3-16-6
#10 MALARCHUK is the best guess here on dirt given that the clockers have reported good things about his morning activities. His pedigree is geared towards both surfaces and he looms a major player if Chad Brown sees fit to leave him in the field. #3 ROCKET NIGHT was highly regarded prior to his debut and went off favored in that Travers day tilt. Expect improvement second time out.
RACE 6: 11-10-1-9
#11 DIGITIZE was a handy maiden winner last out against a solid field at the Spa. He now lands in a pillow soft spot for his first try against winners and rates to have a pace edge as well. The price here will hardly be attractive, but he is a strong late Pick 5 single to kick off the opening leg.
RACE 7: 3-7-5-10
As trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr.’s business expands he will win with all types including firsters like #3 GRANADILLA. This filly is training forwardly and lures Irad Ortiz, Jr. for her unveiling. The dam here was 0-4 but she is kin to Sharp Humor, a top flight 3YO who took Barbaro all the way to the wire in the 2005 Florida Derby. The dam has also dropped 6 winners to date.
RACE 8: 2-10-7-6
#2 WINNING DRIVE has had plenty of opportunities but is the kind of veteran claimer you can often make money with at the windows. His form has been on the upswing of late and he was badly compromised by a speed bias last time out. The runner-up from that race already returned to score a nifty win and this guy should come calling late at a price.
RACE 9: 13-14-16-15
As much as you want to find an alternative to #13 WIN FOR GOLD given the abundance of pace in this field, he is going to be tough to handle. His recent form has been very good and he has the ability to sit just off the pace if a rival gets ambitious on the front end. His odds should drift south of 2-1 pretty quickly as well.
RACE 9: 13-14-16-15
As much as you want to find an alternative to #13 WIN FOR GOLD given the abundance of pace in this field, he is going to be tough to handle. His recent form has been very good and he has the ability to sit just off the pace if a rival gets ambitious on the front end. His odds should drift south of 2-1 pretty quickly as well.
RACE 10: 16-2-3-14
You can’t just default to MTO runners on off the turf days but how can they beat #16 STRAPPED? He’s dropping in class out of a MSW try against much better competition last time out here a couple of weeks ago and draws well to stalk and pounce against a bunch he should handle.
BAQ 2023 STATS: 65-20-8-10 $147.00
