Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Selections & Analysis – Saturday, August 17, 2024

SARATOGA SELECTIONS – 8/17/2024

RACE 1: 6-4-1/1A-5

#6 JONATHAN’S WAY is a firster by Vekoma, who has 11 winners in his debut crop.  The dam here was a 2x 2YO winner and took a stake in her best performance.  She has dropped 5 winners from as many to race and the worktab here looks strong for a barn that’s more than capable of having one ready on debut.

RACE 2: 6-1-4-9

#6 DAVY CROCKETT gets a tepid nod as a firster from the barn of Christophe Clement.  Progeny of Constitution hit at a 17% clip on debut as 2YOs and the dam here was a 6x winner.  The pedigree for turf is just modest, but the worktab is solid and the reports on his most recent grass drill were favorable.

RACE 3: 4-6-7-2

#4 NIC’S STYLE was tremendously impressive to begin her career, but has obviously had substantial issues staying healthy.  She now returns off a layoff in a new barn and should be in a position to stalk and pounce this afternoon.  Bill Mott is good with horses off of trainer changes, and there’s obviously tons of ability here.

RACE 4: 3-5-8-6

The move to turf for #3 RIVER TAY is interesting given the race she ran up here last year for Bruce Brown.  She came back to face winners off that maiden score and was inside during a stretch of time where saving ground on the Mellon turf was a disadvantage. This is her first turf try since and an opportunity to bet her at a square price.

RACE 5: 9-7-4-3

There’s no reason to think the huge meet that Saffie Joseph, Jr. is having will stop soon and that makes #9 RAMESSESthe one to beat here.  He faces a tough competitor in #7 MACAW but should be a threat given the race he ran first time dirt.  The pedigree on the dam side is all for turf, but this colt handled the main track nicely and now gets a dry strip for the first time.

RACE 6: 8-5-4-6

#8 AGENT CREED ran a better race at Monmouth last time out than it looks on paper.  He was always within range of the pace, chasing hard from the start before tiring in the late stages.  That isn’t really the best approach for him in terms of tactics, so if able to lay back and make one run here his chances will greatly improve.

RACE 7: 8-6-9-5

#8 MONDEGO is positioned well to take this bunch on a merry chase.  There’s no other speed in the field and that puts Joel Rosario in an advantageous position.  The pace this son of Lope de Vega set last time out going 11 panels was robust and he understandably tired late.  If left unmolested on the front, he is a major threat to go the distance.

RACE 8: 6-10-7-3

After scratches, #6 ROCKETEER becomes very dangerous given the pace scenario in this affair.  He ran far better in his last start than it looks on paper, as he was always within range of a strong pace that collapsed.  The 1-3 finishers came from well off of it while this son of Curlin moved to the lead around the turn.  He is the one to beat now after scratches.

RACE 9: 7-10-11-1

#7 SHE FEELS PRETTY found the distance too far last time out in the Belmont Oaks, as she chased a solid pace and tired late.  This gal returns to a trip that suits her far better and should be in position from just off the pace.  Her best races still crush the competition today and she seems like a reliable favorite to get the job done here.

RACE 10: 4-7-3-6

#4 JUST BASKING is a 10 furlong winner who comes in off the race of her life.  She’s stepping up into Grade I competition but finds the right bunch given the star of this division is running next week against males.  This gal showed some early life last out and responded in kind when asked to run.  If she can step forward at all off of that performance, she is a major player.

RACE 11: 8-7-3-2

#8 STORMING CHROME was wide while chasing the pace last time out and ultimately checked in second behind a runaway winner.  He lands in a good spot for his fourth straight try in this condition and should have enough speed to stay within range early.  This horse is a great fit for a rider like Luis Saez, whose meet is picking up following a disastrous start.

RACE 12: 6-8-3-5

#6 NAUGHTY DESTINY made the only real off the pace move when 3^rd two starts back, then came back to face stakes company last time out.  This is a rare maiden who’s dropping in class, and she figures to get a solid pace to run at late this afternoon.  Color me skeptical we’ll get 6-1 as it’s unfathomable the filly to her inside could dip below 2-1.

SARATOGA 2024 STATS: 252-70-49-26                      $467.80