SARATOGA – 7/27/2024
RACE 1: 3-7-8-9
#3 ATOMIC AGE is a first timer by Justify, whose progeny win at a 20% clip on debut.  His progeny are 14% first time on the turf and the dam side here is definitely geared towards long term success. Trainer Chad Brown already has a turf route debut winner among his 2YOs and this colt is training well.
RACE 2: 3-2-5-7
#3 IRON MAN IRA is the one to beat on a slight cutback in distance after he chased the pace and weakened last time out. The odds here will be paltry, but there is enough to like about this gelding to give him the nod.
RACE 3: 1A-7-9-10
#1A AMUNDSON is a winner of three straight and goes 2nd off a layoff after winning handily last out against similar. The third place finisher from that affair has since returned to win a route race, and this gelding has more than enough speed to make his presence known from the start. He’ll be a likely favorite here after scratches and deserves every bit of it.
RACE 4: 4-5-3-8
#4 MARIACHI is a threat to #5 SPEAK EASY, the latter of whom has underwhelmed in recent workouts in preparation for his return from a layoff. Mariachi was caught behind the wildly impressive Jefferson Street, who came back to earn a graded stake placing here on Friday. This gelding has plenty of early zip, has been at his best here at Saratoga and should be forwardly placed.
RACE 5: 2-4-1-8
#2 YO DADDY is training well for a return to dirt that follows two narrow misses on the lawn downstate. Trainer Linda Rice took this colt for 50k out of a solid win at Keeneland, and Kentucky-based dirt runners have dominated at this meet. The issue here is pace, but the price will be good enough to take the plunge.
RACE 6: 5-6-4-1
Now is the time to back #5 SUBROGATE as he jumps in class. He dispatched softer rivals last time out when victorious by a blowout margin downstate and has landed in a great spot to test Grade I waters. The issues with trusting #6 SKELLY make this son of Arrogate that much more appealing and his trainer is as dangerous as they come with talented horses.
RACE 7: 5-1-4-6
#5 FIDDLING FELIX was bet down to 3-1 on debut for trainer Whit Beckman and made up some ground in garbage time after a slow break. He should improve with experience and meets a field that lacks a universal “wise guy” two year-old. This son of Mendelssohn has been training with Beckman’s stable star Honor Marie, which indicates his conditioner might be high on his long-term prospects.
RACE 8: 5-7-1-4
#5 AUNT NONA has the speed to get command early in here and will be a big price. Her debut was solid, as she showed early interest, contested things early and tired late. Trainer John Kimmel is 18% with 2nd time starters in MSW races on turf ($2.48 ROI) and this filly should improve with experience. An aggressive ride will definitely help her chances.
RACE 9: 11-8-3-12
The trip endured by #11 TIFAREEH last time out was less than ideal, as he got mired in bad traffic in the final eighth of a mile. He goes 3rd off a layoff today and really hasn’t had much of an opportunity to show whether he’s moved forward as a 3YO. The pace should set up for his liking today and he’ll be a good price in a very competitive field.
RACE 10: 1-3-6-5
It is getting close to “put up or shut up” time for #1 SIERRA LEONE. He has come up with clever excuses in his last two, including the Kentucky Derby, and the Belmont Stakes where he looked to be spinning his wheels on the turn. If he gets some pace to run at, which he certainly should given the way this shapes up on paper, he’ll be tough to hold off late. This division needs a big race from this son of Gun Runner.
RACE 11: 8-1-2-10
#8 WHISTLER’S HONOR is an unreliable horse, but he did his best running in his last turf start and broke his maiden here at Saratoga. This is the third start of his form cycle and he should get some pace to run at late. The negative is Irad Ortiz, Jr. being aboard given he had a huge day on Friday and his horses are likely to be bet down today.
RACE 12: 10-4-5-6
#10 NORTH END LADY ran a superb race last time out when 2nd after rushing up on the far outside while wide to grab the lead. She set a robust pace and was collared in the closing stages in an effort that would win this race comfortably if duplicated. She should be close to the pace and tough to handle if able to avoid a strong pace.
SARATOGA 2024 STATS: 123-30-26-15Â Â Â Â Â Â Â $236.10
