SARATOGA – 6/7/2025
By Nick Tammaro | @NTamm1215
Belmont Racing Festival analysis brought to you by NY Thoroughbred Breeders! Check out more at nytbreeders.org
RACE 1: 2-1-4-8
Trainer Bill Mott scored an early card win on Friday and has #2 ROSWELL returning off a break today. She ran two bang-up races here at the Spa last year and faced better competition in each of those tries. She will be a major player from off the pace today and is bred to handle a wet track well if there’s more rain to come.
RACE 2: 4-6-7-10
#4 MAINSTREAM did everything but win last time out in a big effort at second asking for Brad Cox. He should improve with experience and needn’t run any better to get top honors here. This son of Speightstown hinted at having serious ability early in his career with a smashing debut effort and he took a clear step forward last time out.
RACE 3: 7-9-1-3
#7 REDISCTRICTING gets massive class relief coming out of a Grade I at Churchill Downs where he contested the pace before giving way late. He still has this condition given how quickly he was put into stakes company earlier in his career. This is an opportunity for him to reset himself before tougher engagements down the line.
RACE 4: 5-9-2-10
The form from Churchill Downs continues to prove strong around the country and #5 INTO PLEASURE was in a tough spot on the inside last time out over a wet oval. He can bounce back today as that dull effort ended a streak of in the money finishes dating back to his 2nd career start. This son of Into Mischief has plenty of early speed and should be in the mix from the outset for the dangerous barn of Brian Lynch.
RACE 5: 8-9-2-1
This is a classic case of a layoff returnee with strong form from the prior year with #8 RE MARKABLY. The current connections privately purchased this son of Hoppoertunity after a productive 2YO campaign, largely made up of good efforts against Maryland-breds. He has tactical speed and now gets Lasix for a barn that does very well with new arrivals. He should be a major threat at a square price and 6-1 is appealing.
RACE 6: 6-5-2-1
#6 NITROGEN is on a tear currently with 4 straight wins, including a blowout score in the Grade II Edgewood last time out. She has been routinely strong each and every time, sitting just off the pace last time before powering clear. There’s less speed in here than there was in the Kentucky affair and that’s no issue given this gal can lay right off the pace. Look for her to take another step forward based on her recent training. In her last workout she hooked up with two of Miguel Clement’s runners in the Manhattan and pulled clear late.
RACE 7: 4-5-6-8
The Dubai effort from #4 NAKATOMI was solid, as he was wide the entire way on a surface that favored runners on the rail. He has arguably been at his best over this oval, including a Grade I score in the unfairly downgraded Alfred G. Vanderbilt last time out. He is a pace stalker who will need things to heat up on the front end, and a wet track would only help his cause. His recent workouts have been very strong and he fits nicely in here based on how the field came together.
RACE 8: 5-1-2
There’s no doubt that #1 FIERCENESS is the one to beat, but #5 RAGING TORRENT is a legitimate upset threat. He was very impressive in a gate-to-wire score in the Godolphin Mile last time out. This is clearly a tougher field, but he has been very good in his last two starts, with his only poor recent race having come in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint when he ran up a dead rail. Things could get interesting here if he is able to enjoy an unencumbered trip to the lead.
RACE 9: 9-2-8-10
#9 AG BULLET endured a brutal trip last time out in the Unbridled Sidney, as jockey Umberto Rispoli allowed her to take back early after breaking sharply. She wound up in tight and was steadied inside the eighth pole. Her race was likely over at that point, but the trip was beyond awful. The outside draw is ideal and she can fully utilize her early speed to get a forward position and get the jump on #2 THINK BIG, who is the horse to beat in here.
RACE 10: 1-9-3-7
#1 ZULU KINGDOM has clearly moved forward as a 3YO and has shown increased speed in each of his last two starts. He was very impressive in winning the American Turf last time out and bids to make it five wins in six starts. The inside draw will help him stay close throughout and another effort similar to his last would make him impossible to beat. One rival that finished closely to him in the past was #9 NOBLE CONFESSOR, who should move forward second off a layoff.
RACE 11: 4-10-11-1
#4 PATCH ADAMS has always been cut out to sprint and is in an ideal position as he moves up in class. He was very game in victory last time out, as he staved off #1 BIG TRUZZ in the waning stages. His record around one turn is nearly flawless, as only a brutal pace in his debut did him in at Keeneland. His ability to rate just off the pace is significant, as he should be in range to stalk and pounce this afternoon.
RACE 12: 2-6-3-5
#2 INTEGRATION hinted at being Grade I caliber as a 3YO back in 2023. He never really panned out as a top level performer, but is an interesting player here off a brutal trip last time out at Churchill Downs. He was stuck in behind a wall of horses in deep stretch and wound up finishing deep in the pack. This is a major rider change to Flavien Prat, who was aboard for his last win in the Red Smith. The other edge he possesses on many of his main rivals is the ability to race closer to the early pace.
RACE 13: 6-7-2-1
The upstart colt #6 BAEZA was arguably best in the Kentucky Derby given the unfortunate traffic trouble he ran into along the way. He is a candidate to step forward in a big way given the way this race should unfold. Jockey Flavien Prat is going to put him in a good spot close to the pace where he can take full advantage of his tactical speed. That would potentially give him the jump on the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners. Trainer John Shirreffs is among the best at readying horses for one-race engagements and they’ve targeted this spot since the Derby gallop-out.
RACE 14: 2-6-4-8
#2 TARAJ is new to the US for Bill Mott, who has a strong record with these types over the years. He ran against solid competition overseas, including a Group III placing behind the talented Los Angeles from the Ballydoyle yard. This inside post will put him in a great spot from the outset and he should be a square price in a particularly competitive affair.
