SARATOGA – 7/16/2025
By Nick Tammaro | @NTamm1215
SARATOGA DAILY ANALYSIS BROUGHT TO YOU BY BUCCHERO STUD. Learn more about Bucchero at https://www.buccherostallion.com/
RACE 1: 8-1-9-7
#8 CHINA BEACH comes in on a nifty three-race winning streak!
RACE 2: 2-4-5-6
#2 MAKI MONARCHY goes 2nd off a layoff while shortening up in distance. He is quick early and showed that speed last out before tiring in the closing stages. The lead is likely going to be out of his reach on the cutback, but jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. is so good when it comes to getting fast sprinters to stalk and pounce. Reference the ride on Governor Sam in Sunday’s Quick Call.
RACE 3: 3-4-2-1
#3 AERO STAR is the one to catch as he comes back from a layoff on a class drop for Jose D’Angelo. The presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr. is notable, especially if he can get this son of Cajun Breeze to the top right out of the gate. His best dirt races are still to come given the immediate improvement following the claim back in January.
RACE 4: 5-2-3-4
#5 IRON DOME is a late runner who was compromised by the racetrack last time out. The main track got very speed favoring after rain on the eve of Belmont Stakes and that worked against this Steve Asmussen trainee who should be hard to hold off late today.
RACE 5: 5-7-2-4
#5 THREE THIRTEEN starts for a barn that had a shockingly good run last year over this oval with first time starters. This gelding is by 13% debut sire Unified and is out of an unraced mare. The clockers have had good reviews of her morning activity and that should ensure his readiness.
RACE 6: 8-6-1-3
Even on turf, the Churchill Downs form must be given extra consideration and #8 SASSY PRINCESS is the one to beat here on a massive class drop. Trainer Brendan Walsh failed with a class-dropping turf sprinter here during the 4th of July festival, but this gal looks more formidable. She’s spotted realistically class-wise and should have enough tactical speed to stay within range throughout.
RACE 7: 1-3-2-4
Which money burner do you trust more? I’ll side with #1 DURATION, who at least ran a fast race last time out when beaten a head getting a 97 Beyer figure. He has more work to do late in general than a horse like #3 MAINSTREAM does, but the cutback on the son of Mitole is encouraging. Look for him to settle and make one run in here.
RACE 8: 5-1-8-7
Deep and competitive bunch goes postward here and #5 ALTERNATE REALITY looks formidable. He surged late last time out to narrowly miss against tougher and now lands in a realistic spot class-wise second off the bench. The likelihood of a decent pace today helps his cause, though you’ll have to take a modest price.
RACE 9: 7-1-5-2
#7 MARVELOUS MADISON is intriguing on the stretchout in distance for Bill Mott. She was an impressive debut winner here last summer when she surged through on the inside of a turf course where wide moves dominated. She is the controlling speed on paper today and was within range of a scorching pace in an above average ungraded sprint stake last time out.
SARATOGA 2025 STATS: 42-12-8-3 $120.70
