SARATOGA ANALYSIS – 7/18/2024
RACE 1: 4-6-3-2
The return to a dry racetrack makes #4 SARATOGA KISSES intriguing in the opener. Her trainer, Jimmy Ryerson, is far more competent than his 11% strike rate would lead you to believe, and this gal has run some of her best races around two turns. She wants every bit of the 9 furlongs, will offer value and should get some pace to run at this afternoon.
RACE 2: 8-1/1A-5-3
The outside draw and presence of confirmed speed should make the task of #8 SIX PACK SENORITA that much easier today. She is in good form and was wide last time out on a day when saving ground was advantageous. Flavien Prat sticks on board and has had success when riding for Rudy Rodriguez in the past.
RACE 3: 8-6-9-2
It is tough to take a bold stand in this event given the competitive nature of the field, but #8 SPIRITUAL LADY offers enough appeal. She has made two prior turf starts, one of which came in a rich MSW event at Kentucky Downs and she was in the mix throughout. The second was a route at Keeneland where she was carried out badly on the first turn and lost all chance. She’s an interesting player in a race full of slightly differing versions of the same horse.
RACE 4: 5-6-2-7
Barring something unforeseen, #5 THE BIG TORPEDO will win this race and bag his second straight stakes score. He was impressive in winning from just off the pace last time out and now gets some added ground and a second turn to negotiate. While he was beaten two back at a mile, that was an open company affair and he now towers over these restricted runners.
RACE 5: 7-3-8-5
#7 IRIDESCENT was re-claimed by Brad Cox out of his last start, a second place finish against similar rivals to what he meets today. This is a great spot for him given that he’s performed well at this level in the past and now draws nicely on the outside. He is going to have to run back to his last and consistency has not been his strong suit. But, he is the one to beat on paper.
RACE 6: 9-5-10-3
Experience is still a major edge at this stage of the game and #9 MOON GATE earned it in a big way on debut. She broke well and made a middle move that afternoon before flattening out late, but met what amounted to a much stronger field than this one. Trainer Christophe Clement has long had excellent numbers with 2YO turfers at the Spa (21%, $2.09 ROI) in a large 72 horse sample and this filly should have the speed to stay close in here.
RACE 7: 2-6-5-7
All eyes point to #2 PRINCIPE D’ORO being very interesting in here from an inside post. There’s so much to like about this son of Medaglia D’Oro, from the addition of the shades, to his outside trip on a day where the rail was strong last time to his recent sharp workout. He is a major player in a competitive race and that is going to help us get a good price.
RACE 8: 9-8-2-1
#9 SURPRENANT COCCA ran a good race two starts back downstate against a tough field. The 1-2 finishers from that affair came back to run first and third in the Wild Applause, while this filly went to Delaware and underperformed. She didn’t have the cleanest of trips that day and deserves another opportunity here, especially on the class drop.
RACE 9: 4-9-11-6
#4 EXPATRIATE gets the nod in a super competitive affair with numerous win candidates. She was a solid debut winner and earned a Thoro-graph number in that race that puts her among the elite in this bunch. Holding a stake race run on a wet course against her seems idiotic, so she is essentially a second timer here with Irad Ortiz, Jr. and enough tactical speed to stay within striking distance throughout.
RACE 10: 8-2-3-6
#8 VERY FUNNY was wide on the course on debut and saving ground that afternoon was beneficial. He should improve with a race under his belt and now moves to the barn of Bruce Levine, who has trained for this owner for years. The presence of Javier Castellano is a good thing as well and the half-mile breeze since the unveiling signals readiness.
SARATOGA 2024 STATS: 51-15-11-3 $119.40
