SARATOGA – 8/11/22
RACE 1: 3-5-6-4
#3 SENSIBLECONCLUSION gets a key jockey change after getting stuck behind a slow pace last time out. He should get more pace to run at this afternoon in a comparable field, and the value to be had in this race is here. Look for him to make noise in the stretch. #5 SALT CAY is in for a tag for the first time for trainer Chad Brown, who extended his lead in the trainer standings on Wednesday afternoon. He has enough tactical speed to stay close and will be tough to beat if he runs back to his 5/6 effort. #6 CATCHING CUPID is one of the main speedsters in this field as he adds blinkers for Charlton Baker. He was too passively ridden last time out and is better suited to being allowed to get involved from the start.
RACE 2: 5-2-3-6
#5 BAY JEWEL is goes first off a claim by trainer Jimmy Ferraro after running an even race for 12.5k when last seen. She has some turf sprint efforts from last year that would make her a major player in this event and she has the tactical speed to stay close from the start. If she runs back to that, then she is a major player. #2 ANGELINKA is new to the care of Rob Atras and drops in class. She has the tactical speed to stay within range from the outset and has undoubtedly faced better in two prior starts in this country. #3 OLIVE KAT is a potential pace player in this field for mid-Atlantic based trainer Michael Gorham. She had some trouble along the way last time out and that hindered her chances. If she can get a clean run she’s a threat to go the distance.
RACE 3: 5-2-3-1
#5 DAME CINCO looks better than her rivals on paper and should control this race pace-wise. She has not been seen since April when she was a game 2nd while racing against the grain of the track against tougher claimers. This is the right spot for her and her speed figures are robust. #2 PREPOSTEROUS goes first off a claim by Antonio Arriaga after finishing a rallying second last time out over this oval. This new barn is 26% with dirt routers going first off of claims ($3.17 ROI) so there’s reason to give her a long look. #3 CLARA BELLE has had limited opportunities on dirt and gets one today with Irad Ortiz, Jr. taking over in the irons. She wired the field in her last dirt start, and showing that kind of speed would help her cause.
RACE 4: 3-4-1-2
It is abundantly clear that the horse you want from the 6th race on July 15 is #3 RUSE. He ran the best race given the pace and dynamics in that affair. The pace was very strong, he was spun out 4w on the first turn and still stayed on gamely late. Look for him to be a major player throughout. #4 QUIET OUT EAST was jammed up inside when trying to rally last time out in the same race that Ruse exits. There’s potential for this pace to boil over given the presence of #8 NOT PHAR NOW, and that would help this veteran son of Broken Vow. #1 GHOST GIANT at least had some trouble last time out and that’s his excuse. He is a late threat again for a barn that is due to get rolling at this meet at some point.
RACE 5: 10-11-9-3-1
#10 MR. CONNECTICUT is an absolute standout on paper. He drops in for a tag for trainer Christophe Clement, who is clearly just trying to get this son of Lemon Drop Kid a win. The only negative is his post, as nearly all of his prior efforts would make him a winner in this field. If #11 URAGANO gets in off the AE list then he’s the biggest danger to the top pick. This son of Laoban drops in for a tag for the first time and has back races that would make him competitive. He also stands to get the jump on some of the deeper closers. #9 ON PALM SUNDAY just might be able to get clear in this field and did post a good effort two starts back. He was collared late that day after setting a moderate pace, but it showed that frontrunning tactics will bring about his best.
RACE 6: 9-3-4-6
#9 MAMA’S GOLD is kin to accomplished 2YOs Lookin for Trouble and multiple stakes winner Rotknee. He appears to be training forwardly at Belmont for this event and progeny of Bolt d’Oro are hitting at a whopping 22% clip on debut in his first crop. #3 POP COYER worked well at the OBS April sale and appears to be moving well in the mornings at the Spa. He will be a big price based on his trainer and seems to have found the right field. #4 CURLY LARRY AND MO is a second timer and having experience is still an edge at this point. He ran a bang-up race on debut when 2ndbehind an impressive winner and he stands to benefit from having some experience.
RACE 7: 6-4-1-7
#6 CLAYTNTHELIONHEART is going 3rd off a layoff for trainer Phil Bauer, who has a couple of winners and a 2ndplace finish from his first four starters at the meet. This son of Declaration of War has run well at Saratoga on multiple occasions in the past and has the right running style for this race given his ample tactical speed. #4 KERSHAW goes first off a claim by a high percentage outfit after checking in a game 2nd in the first race of the meet. He is a player from the opening bell given the increased speed he showed last time out and the work this barn generally does off the claim. It’s become clear that the race #1 AIR ATTACK ran in last time out is never going to hold up to scrutiny. It was insanely fast, and while some of the run-backs have done well next time out, it’s still an event that lives in isolation. He is a threat to win today though.
RACE 8: 3-8-1-2
#3 BACKYARD MONEY is the main speed on paper and should get control of this race if ridden properly by Jose Ortiz. She was a game maiden winner last time out and stayed on a potentially slow rail to get the job done that day. She has upside with this being her 2nd start off a layoff, and the vast improvement in her Thorograph number last time out indicates she could have another forward move. #8 MAYBE LATER goes 2nd off a claim by trainer Linda Rice and switches surfaces while also cutting back in distance. Rice is 20% with cutbacks switching from turf to dirt over the last five years and more specifically 4 for her last 15 with those that were scheduled ($3.24 ROI). #1 ECHO FOXTROT is in from Delaware to face winners for the first time and is fresh off a romping win to make it 2-2 in her brief career. She earned a Thorograph sheet number that would make her impossible to handle today in her last start. Working out a trip from the rail is the worry.
RACE 9: 6-7-5-10
#6 BREEZE EASY looks like the right type of cutback in this field given the expected pace scenario. This gal got involved in a strong tempo early last time out and understandably weakened late. She can lay back and make one run here in a spot where she’ll offer value as well. #7 EMPRESS TIGRESS was 7/2 against a number of these horses last time out and will now likely go favored. She is a definite win candidate given the strength of the effort she posted last time. The pace hardly held together that day but she stayed on beautifully en route to the score. #5 HALF IS ENOUGH is out of a dam who was winless on turf, but she is kin to graded stake winner Current. There’s other 2ndfamily turf winners and this is a barn that’s generally at its best in turf sprints.
RACE 10: 11-10-9-2
#11 SUCCULENT had enough go against her last time out to give her one more try. She was hopelessly wide in a slow paced race and tried to make a big move around the turn. That is never easy, so give her one more shot in a race that shapes up far more like a maiden claimer. #10 BAVARIAN CRÈME stretched out on dirt last time out and ran a credible race and now returns to turf. Her turf race two back was better than it looks on paper as she was held up to produce one late run and did kick on when asked. The concern is the distance, as she might be better going shorter. #9 JOCOSITY has at least only had one opportunity to prove her lack of ability. She has upside as a second timer for good connections, though her rider is in the doldrums.
SARATOGA 2022 TOP PICK STATS: 187-46-31-16 $308.80
