Hello and welcome to our latest venture, the NYRA Bets Late Pick 5 Podcast. As the name suggests, this show will feature the extended In the Money Media family going over the races in the NYRA Bets Late Pick 5. Our first show will look at the NYRA Bets exclusive wager on Saturday, April 20.
Joining host Peter Thomas Fornatale (that’s me) for this maiden voyage will be ITM stalwart Jonathon Kinchen as well as professional horseplayer — and NHC Champion — Paul Matties. We’ll also cover the right way to approach this unique bet strategically, and even give a few thoughts on runners who might be a little sneaky in the upcoming Kentucky Derby.
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We’ve got a great new show for you all today. The new NYRA bets late pick five podcast, and we’re going to start off with a read from our sponsor NYRA bets. The Charlestown classic is finally here and our friends at NYRA bets have got you covered this Saturday. All you have to do is bet at least $5 to win on one horse using the NYRA Betts app.
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Hello, and welcome. Welcome to the NYRA bets late pick five podcast. I’m your host, Peter Thomas. going to be very excited to be going over the Saturday. NYRA bets late pick fives with you. Usually accompanied by my co-host Jonathan kitchen. He’ll be here a little bit later on, but first we’re going to start off with an appearance from our first guest Paul Matisse.
And now I’d like to welcome to the NYRA bets late pick five players, podcast, professional player, Paul Matisse. Paul, how are you doing today? All right. How about yourself? Pete things are good. I’m really, uh, looking forward to being involved with this new show. We’ve got so much cool stuff cooking. We talked a little off air.
We’ve got this charity contest that NYRA races are going to be involved in this weekend. That’s going to be fun and looking forward to talking to you. And in a few minutes, we’ll bring in JK to talk about this Saturday. NYRA bets late. Pick five. Many of those races will be in that contest on Saturday.
This is like your, uh, 30th show. Now you’re like the hardest working man in a horse racing business. You’re to James Brown of horse racing. No, not true. There are so many harder workers. Dave Grinny comes to mind who covers New York and does so many things from there. And how about our mutual friend? Steve Beck?
How hard does that guy work? I might have a lot of shows, but that guy does 15 hours a week. I just want, uh, my brother Duke and Steve’s, uh, air miles guys were on a plane for two guys that don’t have a real job. They were more than anybody. I know. That’s fantastic. Well, let me start off by asking you some more general questions about being a New York racing player for all these years.
How important in 2019 is the NYRA circuit to your professional horseplay and how has that. Sort of changed over the years or has it, has it not, has it always held a similar place? Hasn’t always been a big part of my plan, but I always use it as kind of like the centerpiece of, of all the simulcasting. I think once upon a time I had an advantage because I grew up in New York and simulcasting really wasn’t new to me, so I could keep a main track like aqueduct and then play things around it.
I grew up playing in the OTBs playing finger lakes and other tracks. Um, my whole life. So at this point now things are different. Everybody’s, uh, you know, on an equal playing field because, you know, it’s just all about simulcasting and how much comfort you have when you’re at home and everything. So that’s changed somewhat, but it’s still, I still kind of keep the same kind of philosophy though, where, you know, you get your main track and.
And then, and then work around it kind of like a centerpiece, you know, and NYRA is important because you have to follow an IRA. You can’t, you’ll lose a little ass effective what’s going on in, in the national racing scene because so many horses ship out of NYRA. It’s funny. Uh, and this is not just for Saratoga, but it’s, it’s funny to watch the horses after Saratoga.
I mean, it’s amazing. If you just watch their total totally. Then you can watch any circuit and you pretty much, can you have a line of what’s going on? Because if you run, if you run in a parks at Saratoga horses, if it said finger lakes and Saratoga, versus if it’s a no Kentucky, Kentucky downs, it’s a Saratoga horses.
It’s the Maryland, you know, it’s uh, so there’s so much, uh, The horses that run there, get scattered out so much. So, uh, throughout the year that you have to have, uh, some kind of idea of what’s going on, it’s definitely a hub. And you talk about the importance of simulcasting and it’s obvious. Yeah. The, as much as we’ve even we’ve talked for just a couple minutes and it’s becomes pretty clear that you’re somebody who’s.
God has eyes on a lot of screens. So people might be surprised to know that you don’t hunker down in your office during the Saratoga meeting, you’re out there out, back in the area. That’s been a nickname Mattise village out by the big red spring. Why is it important to you to attend the races at Saratoga live?
And do you think it takes away or contributes to your overall horseplay?
A little different during that timeframe, because it’s such a centerpiece between Saratoga and Delmar that I, and a little bit of mamas, but that’s, that’s, uh, kind of, uh, going down except on the weekends. I probably lose a little fraud by being at the track. Um, that’s the, you know, that’s another thing we should talk about.
That’s a third ideas problem. You know, that being at the track is always, I always use it as a disadvantage in somehow. Horse racing has got to fix that for the real players. Being at the trackers, shouldn’t be a disadvantage. They should try to make it so that give you something else. So it’s not, you know, give you incentive to go.
But you know, the serotonin is more the social aspect that keeps me going all year. I think without it, you get fried pretty easily, but being at the, uh, being at Saratoga with everybody and, you know, there’s a different person there every single day that I know from around the world that shows up. So. Um, it’s just such a horse racing environment that it keeps you fresh.
And that’s probably more the reason why I go there and, and my family, um, Like you said, there’s always a bunch of thesis running around, out there in the back. That’s great. And I want to talk generally about the state of being a pro horse player in 2019, how’s business going, is this the type of profession that gets harder every year, or have you just sort of found your niche where you’re, you’re grooving with it these days?
It’s always gets harder and you know, I’m amazed too. Uh, you have to keep, uh, you have to keep moving forward. Even a lot of people would like to say that it’s, uh, you know, it’s getting worse cause it’s getting harder. And I don’t find that to be true. I mean, there’s always phases. If you’re going to do this on a regular basis, uh, professional or not things change and racing and, uh, you, you have to be aware.
I I’ve been a proponent of people. Try and pick. Have a feel of all of racing, you know, in your life so that, you know, and if, if you would say you were, uh, on an Island for 20 years and you came back to racing, you, you wouldn’t, you wouldn’t have the right feel, even if you even 10 years ago, if you would go on and you’d want every year that you went, and then you took a 10 year absence and you were in jail for 10 years.
And then he came back a literal example in the case of some of our friends, I think. You you’d be lost, you know, because it, it definitely is an evolving organism almost. I mean, you know, it, you have to be, uh, in touch with it all. And if you’re not, you know, you’re going to make, you’re going to make too many mistakes.
And, uh, you know, and I just find that in 2019, there’s some things that are trickier to deal with that you haven’t had to deal in other years. Some of it is less fun. I think that’s why you see the negativity on Twitter. You know, I had some. No bad stretches here and there in my life. And you didn’t have to change.
So that so much that you didn’t, you weren’t taking the fun aspect out of it. And I find, I don’t know, for certain reasons, so we don’t, we don’t have time to get into, but, uh, when you have to be more selective and you can’t go for things as much, it just becomes less fun. And I think that’s why you see some of the negativity, but it doesn’t mean that it’s not, it can’t be profitable and.
There’s stuff that there’s opportunities they’re still there. You just gotta, you gotta come and go about it in a little bit, maybe of a different way. I totally understand. You’re resisting, opening up a whole can of worms about the challenges that face HorsePlayers in 2019, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t ask you to maybe pull out one specific challenge, something that a horseplayer has to deal with today that he or she didn’t have to deal with, uh, say 10 years ago or 20 or even 20 years ago, does anything come to mind in that regard?
Well, the one big thing that is obvious and your partner there, uh, Jonathan, who is newer to the game, probably doesn’t even know the difference. Uh, but I just noticed it in him. And, uh, I had a conversation with, uh, Sean Borman a couple of weeks ago, and we were talking about how playing every day is something that you could do my whole life.
I mean, you didn’t have to bet more on a Saturday, you know, and still be successful. Nowadays, I think it’s almost impossible to do something like that. You, you have to concentrate on these bigger days. You have to be aware of the pools on different days, uh, way more than, than you’ve had to in the past.
And you have to skew them at a, at a more, more of a dangerous curve. And then you would want to wear an opinion on Saturday has to be better than opinion on Tuesday. And there’s no way around it just because the, the way that they structured these races. You know, uh, on Saturdays and how much money is bet on these bigger days, liquidity, I would think the liquidity and the opportunity to find mistakes and to fully exploit your best opinions is just going to be more on Saturday.
That’s a reason why on this show, we chose to at least initially just focus on the Saturday. NYRA bet. Slate, pick five. It’s a bet that you can play every day, but I figure there’s going to be the most meat on the bone for players. On Saturdays. We’re going to bring in JK in just a minute to look at this pick five sequence.
But one more question for you, Paul, before we go there and answer, honestly, how important has this NYRA bets laid pick five Ben to you since it’s advent, I guess now a couple of years ago, you get a special account just to play it. You know, I’m not like unlike other people. Um, I would recommend to do that.
There’s lots of value in the vet. I mean, I know there’s a Twitter conversation going in front recently about value, and I want to get into that either. So weird scenario in that it’s a higher pool on a multi type, that with not a huge score type of that, where you, uh, you don’t shoot for the moon in it, you play more for the vest, you know, explain what you mean by that.
I think I know where you’re going, but, but give us a little more on that. Well, you know, a lot of times in a pick five or, you know, especially at 65, you should go for it. You know, you’re really going for the best, a little to win a lot type mentality. And, and a lot of times, even if you’re like shorter prices, you go and you put more money into it, then, uh, I would advocate that you put more money into it than probably if you’re a regular day player, you, you, you go for a lot of money or you go short.
You know, you go real short, you don’t, those, those kinds of type of players, you can get caught in the middle. And I think that’s the biggest mistake you can make in this pool, because it’s a smaller pool than say, like the early fixed five at NYRA. You have to, you have to tone it down a little bit and like bring them pedometer over to the left a little, you know, you can’t, you can’t be on the pedal really, too hard in it.
And that’s hard and you pick five, it’s a real complicated feel because that’s not the norm. You know, you’re looking to hit, not the percentage of hidden and book scoring when you do and this bed, it’s a little different, but there’s still value in it. So it’s a, it’s a really, it’s a neat bet. It’s tricky.
And. There’s more to it than just going about probably than, than on everyday. But I think you can get in this trap. So there’s definitely traps. You can get caught in that middle area where I was talking about, and you certainly don’t want to get caught with one foot on the boat, one foot on the dock playing like an intermediate amount of money where you don’t really give yourself a chance to kill it.
And you don’t really give yourself a chance to catch something like that. Yeah, I’ll just expand on it a little bit, you know, like on a big pick five, if you can tie up a race with four or five horses. Okay. There’s value in doing it, even though some guys will tell you. No, but if you, if you and your head can tie up a race, And if you could tie up a bunch of legs, but four or five.
Okay. There’s lots of value in, you know, Steve, Chris was a proponent that there’s value in the third. Uh, if you could type, uh, rates with three horses, you get all the value in the third, uh, uh, selection. But if you can get it even in four and five, that there, it just, it exponentially gets better. The fourth and fifth, um, winners in a tie up race.
Um, we’ll, you know, we would just pick your ticket to orbit and. And irregular pick five and you have, uh, uh, re uh, Hyder bank role. You should be going for that. You should be tying up races, all the races you can, and you don’t, and you shouldn’t worry about it. Um, in this pick five, you can’t do that. Maybe you can do it in one leg, but you shouldn’t be doing it more than one leg.
And if you can tie up the racism in a Steve, Chris pipe, um, ticket, where he gets three. That’s okay. But even there, you can’t play. I don’t think it’s a, it’s a, it’s a poor idea to play all with just threes, you know, and, and you can’t force that you can’t force tie up. So if, uh, if the race is a really a five, you can’t just say, all right, I’m going to, I’m going to take it.
Uh, you know, I’m going to, I’m going to take three, you know, or I’m just going to arbitrarily throw out the favorite in all of them. And. You know, and then not take it. You have to spec speculate more than that. You have to go. All right. I gotta, I gotta use five to tie this race up. Uh, I can’t do that. I’m this?
I’m this pick five. So I got to go with a different kind of idea where now I’m going to speculate on a five to one that I liked a little bit better than maybe everybody else, but it’s not, uh, it’s more of a gamble, which makes my ticket have to be less money. And then I gotta be more careful in the other leg.
So I’m not playing too much on that one horse where like, for example, I don’t, I’m not speculating on a five to one that I don’t love where I got $200 into the, in combinations with, with, you know, with this horse, you know? So your ticket structure has gotta be. It’s it’s gotta be CRISPR and this, and this pick five, then a different one.
Even if you’re going to tie us, it occurs to me that using the other pools in conjunction with the pick five is also probably a pretty smart strategy. That money that you’re saving in certain legs by not wanting to go too deep to tie up in that one opinion, maybe you can go after different combinations in say the pick three or the pick four and work them sort of elegantly together.
No doubt. And I’m not a huge proponent of that. You know, even though we we’ve got all these beds structured so that they’re always in a row, but I think this is the one exception to that where I, and I’ve noticed that I, I, I kind of have that kind of philosophy. Uh, I felt delayed pick four is such a higher pool that you can play a pick five and then I’ll play the pick four and it’ll be completely different, uh, philosophy and structure.
And I think that’s a, uh, That’s a good point. All right. Let’s bring in JK and talk some races. And now I’d like to welcome to the players podcast, airwaves, the co-host of this show and all the work I do over here, the people’s champion, Jonathan Kinchin JK what’s up. Chick-fil-A parking lot. Uh, getting ready to grab some nuggets or something.
Once I get off the phone with you guys on for the rest of my journey back down to Austin. All right, let’s move along and talk about this late. Pick five NYRA bets late, pick five. I should say an aqueduct on Saturday. It starts off. There’s a bunch of stakes in the sequence, but we start off with an allowance, race out a mile and an eighth on the dirt.
Uh, we do not have a particularly long field here. Uh, six horses, Paul, what do you think of this one? This is a very difficult race for 600 mile on an eighth race of that, you know, allowance rates at aqueduct re-upped. I thought, um, Going to be a little bit tricky for a first leg of a fixed five, because the nature of the nature of everybody will be that the, a shadow writer and candy Graham will be, you know, it’s a two horse race, but I think it’s a little bit more trickier than that.
And, uh, the first I’m kind of interested in is hero’s welcome. Who love mannequins Vino. Rosseau in a spiny about a month and a half ago on the Gotham card. And, uh, that race was, uh, was, um, A much faster pace than I anticipated when, when it ran and this horse was in the pace and it was kind of a unique thing because he hadn’t showed that kind of speed necessarily.
And, uh, you know, kinda made probably a mistake, a tactical error and he’s works. Good sense. And he’s a tricky horse that I think might be, uh, he might be a bust out to those other two. Um, I don’t know exactly how to go about it for strategies wise, but, uh, I wouldn’t just lock into the other two. I think he’s got a chance that they’d be upset then.
JK, what do you think? I agree with Paul. I thought those two horses made the most sense. Candy gram and shadow rider with candy gram, probably being the most likely winner for Jimmy Jerkins and Manny Franco’s. Last two races were, were pretty impressive. In fact, his last four races kind of fit in in this spot.
One, one horse that kind of caught my attention is a horse King cause. I’ll actually mention this trainer’s name a little bit later, but Dermot Magner, uh, for those that don’t know, he’s, he’s, he’s still fairly new. He had a winner, I think, or two last summer at Saratoga, but Durham is a guy that used to work for Chad Brown.
And before that he works with Todd plusher. So he’s got a lot of experience being around good horses. He knows how to train a good horse. So the switch to him, first Dermot Magner off of Doug O’Neill might be a curious one for some people, but I think Dermot’s the kind. They can get this horse running in the right direction.
I don’t think that King cause is as good as the other two, but we always gotta be aware when these West coast dirt horses ship out to the East coast. So, um, I’d like to try to get away with using candy gram shadow rider and maybe some savers on King cause. But Paul’s kind of got my attention looking at hero’s welcome.
And what he did last time being involved in that pace. Well, it was an interesting horse too. Uh, I, I had trouble trying to decipher and I agree with everything. Jonathan said the mile and an eighth off the layoff. What do you think of that? JK? I, that, I didn’t know what the figure that that’s probably a positive side, right?
I would think so, you know, and you got to think about these up and coming trainers, like, like new trainers, try not to bring short horses over there. You know, they can’t really afford to take dents in their winning percentage. They can’t afford to disappoint connections. You know, they got to kind of get these horses ready to rock and roll.
They don’t, they’re not, this is not bill mater or Todd Pletcher, who can say, look, you know, I’m going to I’m in the hall of fame and I just need, uh, needed to give this horse one. So I would, I would hope that that might be that. And then also Doug O’Neill horse has always have a good foundation. Um, we, we talk about it when Derby season comes around, how much he gallops them and how intensely he gallops his horses.
Now it’s a pretty long break, but hopefully this horse, um, has learned some things in the morning can get himself into shape and be ready to run. Like I said, you know, not the, not the most likely of winners compared to the other two, but one that could present some value. Interesting stuff. All right, let’s talk about the Woodhaven stakes.
We moved to the turf for this mile and a 16th race. Uh, I’m going to take a wild guess and say the weather’s going to cooperate between now and then we’ll see how that works out. But, uh, Paul, we’re going to bring it back to you for your thoughts on this one. This race here is not that easy for a shorter type field either.
I didn’t think that Fletcher. Entry is probably going to be, both of them are going to be a little over bet and I’m not a hundred percent sold on the Jeremiah horse, even though it was coming out of the breeders cup will take a lot of, uh, play for sure. I think the, uh, the tendency to there again, I think there’s value in trying to beat the two favorites there, you know, uh, it’s two or three favorites and doors.
I kind of like as a, as a long, long shot is a English B the grim motion. Who is way better than he looked in that last race at, uh, at Tampa Bay. And I, I think, uh, again, another difficult race in the, in the sequence where I wouldn’t, I wouldn’t go single in there. I like that. Shout for English B had the difficult start.
Last time, stuck behind a slow pay. Still made a bit of a run. J K, where will your money be heading? No. Paul mentioned the, the Jeremiah horse, uh, 40 under, as a horse, and I thought could win the Breeder’s cup juvenile terms. So I kind of got to like him in this spot, but I agree with Paul, you got to try to look a little bit elsewhere and I kind of fell on English B2 for a couple reasons.
One digital age was like a huge kind of a buzz horse going into that race at Tampa Bay. I think they had a. I don’t remember what state it was that a mandatory payout in there pick five that day, it carried over something like that. And I remember digital age being, uh, being a, a buzz for Chad Brown ran well, obviously with a trip in that race.
But another thing to keep in mind is if you listen to our Keelan podcast for Friday, we talk about a horse by the name of scattered strikes that Sean borne and I both really liked a lot late in the card on Friday English B. The reason I found out about scattering stroke or scattered strikes. Is because English B was working with scattered strikes.
So the company not lines and English B is keeping if scattered strikes runs good on Friday, it could be a really big clue leading into Saturday. So keep an eye out for that. So I’m going to try to get away with this race by beating Todd with using just the Jeremiah with 40 hours under an English beef promotion and, uh, and hold my breath.
Great note there, JK on that those company lines let’s move on to the seventh race. We are staying on the turf. We are back in the allowance, ranks Paul, uh, any clarity on this one? Now this racism is, uh, this is a race where you might have to speculate, uh, because of, uh, you know, that Chad Brown has the horse that hasn’t run since 2017, which.
Nine out of 10 times, I would say that’s a terrible, uh, situation in the horse that you’d want to play against, but Chad, doesn’t like to be embarrassed with these types. And if you look recently, he’s had a lot of success with, uh, in fact, it’s, it’s, counter-intuitive the horses that, uh, the longer they’re off the, the better he’s done with them.
Um, so I’m not inclined to go against them. Like I would probably a different or some I’m going to go on there. The assumption that since he’s running them, um, he’s pretty confident. And the horse. That was pretty impressive. Once he broke his maiden turbulence. It’s not really bred for that for the turf, I think at MTO place.
Oh, that is okay. I’m uh, I’m using a different set of PPS. I don’t have that. Okay. That would make more sense. There is a world in which that, whether that’s expected for Caitlin does get here on time to disrupt things. Is that one, it should, the race move to the, to the main track that you’d be interested in?
Well, I think it’ll be, it’ll be short if it’s, if that’s the way it goes. I had trouble with this race. I. Uh, I didn’t really want to play against Chad. There’s not a lot of value in that, but I think that’s. I didn’t have, I didn’t have a lot to go against him in this race at all. So Jake got a better opinion.
Okay. Somebody who will sometimes just take one of these horses, one of these Chad Brown shorties and say, Hey, I’m going to get stuck into this one. And this is going to be the fate of my pick five today. Or you might take a stand against your rarely one JK and our time together to hedge and use the Chad Brown shorty and three other horses.
Maybe one backup or something. How do you see it? How are you going to play this time? Yeah. Paula makes a great point where, you know, in most situations see a horse off a long layoff. It’s, it’s kind of like an auto toss with, with Chad. It’s like an auto single it’s, it’s becoming a little bit weird. Um, and I, you know, funny enough up at Saratoga hanging out on the, at the Oklahoma training track, I ran into a prominent turf trainer who, who was, it was almost whining and complaining to a certain extent that like this.
Is why Chad is having so much success is because he had so much success so fast that he has like, got this. Yeah. He can put his thumb on his owners and he doesn’t have to start horses. He can give them 328 days after they bought them over in Europe for $750,000, because that’s what he’s kind of earned.
And so what he’s allowed to do is bring these horses in. In peak performance and he can train them and train them and train them if they get injured, it’s not really a problem. So he’s kinda got this really great setup that a, that a lot of other trainers don’t have and Minsky moment could be an example of that, obviously, uh, Clarivate stables and, and, and William Lawrence.
Aren’t going to tell Chad that he needs to get this horse back. It needs to run him. Chad’s gonna run the horse when he wants to. I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted a single Minsky moment. Um, I think that the interesting, uh, alternatives obviously mango M for showed makes a little bit of sense, but I feel like every time I bet on sugar, he runs second or third and I tell myself I’m going to bet him back.
And then the other one we mentioned earlier, you know, Dermot Magner with Lecky obviously. If that training line said Chad Brown, first time turf, uh, we would all be very excited about, uh, Lecky trying the turf for the first time. Uh, like I said, Dermot spent a lot of time with Chad. So the things that Chad would do, you would think that Dermot could possibly do the same things.
So Lecky is one that’s interesting to me, uh, had some pretty good races down in, in, uh, well at Belmont, obviously, and then at South Florida, When you were in second or third, I think to mood show, uh, that, that talented, uh, Belmont horse. So he’s one. That’s interesting, but I would probably lean mostly on shad in this spot.
Just to underline that point. We talked, we’ve talked on our other podcast many times about the perils of when the owner picked the spot. And if, if the trainer had an option, when he entered a horse to, to click a box that said, Owner pick the spot and you look at the stats, they would always underperform what the trainer’s stats would be.
When the trainer picked the spot in the Chad Brown barn, the owner never picks the spot. As far as I can tell let’s move on to the New York state. There’s one thing. The thing about that is the tourist is that to reiterate, I didn’t do a great job explaining that to the tourists that JK mentioned are, are definitely the tourists, is that are the next two horses.
And, but I don’t find them as being equal as the champ horse, or, and then you got the three favorites. So you don’t want to, you don’t want to go spread. And like we talked about earlier spreading the three, the three favorites in this type of rate, I think it’s, it’s a very difficult race in the sequence.
And if you have a different opinion, you should probably speculate somehow in that race. That makes sense. All right, let’s move on to this eighth race. It is the New York stallion stakes, and Paul, we will keep it with you. Well, you know, this race, I did think it was pretty much a truck driven race and the main horse there is, uh, he’s going to face a little bit more of speed pressure than probably he wants his stone is in the road, but it’s going to be way less than last time coming from the open state race, into the state bread steak races.
And, uh, she definitely has a, a huge advantage. The horse I’m interested in. And I would definitely use just as equal is the, is the maiden bangle gal. It’s a Michael is shipping in, um, has really good workouts at Kaitlin. And, uh, I thought ran really well, uh, in her first start a fairgrounds in a, in a, uh, in a much better, main, special weight race than the new probably would see it at a normal fairgrounds.
And, uh, I just think that she, she showing up in this spot is, uh, is a good sign. They went and got Manny Franco, I think, uh, She’s well met and I would definitely use her as equal as an equal to stones in the road. J K how do you see it? Those are the only two I really need, I guess if, if, if you have a stronger opinion elsewhere in the sequence, and you’re looking for a little bit more coverage here, I would think alpha Dora is one that you could maybe consider just on the cutback had shown some speed.
Last I’m opened up by five and four at one point of the race. Uh, going a little bit long are now cutting back a bit. You know, I, I think if there’s a source JK, that’s the infamous Twitter or, uh, Hector Diaz step. Right. And then yeah, I remember that. Yes, yes, yes, yes. Klepper get them out. It’s impressive.
Sorry to interrupt you. No, his agent, his agent needs a, it needs a raise. Yeah, for sure. Finish your thought on that one, Jacob. No, that’s the only other one. Like I said, I only really need stones in the road in bangle gallon. And I guess if I was forced to pick a single one, single, I think I would probably pick stones in the road over the chat.
Just because of the unknowns with the layoff. I mean, I think it’s going to be fine. I, you know, it’s not, but, but I think that, you know, Chad’s always over bed anyway. So if you can somehow beat a Chad single, uh, there’s a lot of opportunities to pick up some equity. So I would single the Jeremiah horse stones in the road, uh, in the eighth.
All right, let’s close this thing out. We’re going to move to the ninth at aqueduct on Saturday, a race that will also be part of our contest that we’re going to be running for the benefit of the thoroughbred retirement foundation. Over on the Derby war site, we’re going to have a broadcast to accompany with it.
So as you bet, your NYRA bets late, pick five on Saturday, you can watch us. I’ll send that info out on Twitter via my account at looms boldly, just waiting on the final word. So we’ve got more. Uh, stallion stakes action here. And Paul, let’s close it out with you first. Well, I think this is the best race of the, in the sequence.
You know, as far as, uh, as a handicapping race, it’s got, it’s got a little bit of everything. The best course is running at, at a odd distance. And it’s weird. And the fact that a bank, it used to show speed when he, when he used to run shorter distances and now he’s been prepping for the Derby and he’s been.
Way behind in a bunch of races. So it’d be interesting to see if the closing style that he has may translate to the closing sprinter. Um, and even though he’s run four or five races, you know, going a mile or longer in a row, it’s not, it’s not impossible to see that, that this might hit him right. Between the eyes, even though at first glance, it doesn’t think that, you know, that, that he might be able to get up and go in six and a half.
And, uh, he’s definitely got the, uh, The best, uh, class lines and the highest figures. So he he’s, he’s kind of like central horse to the race, but, uh, you know, I don’t know if he can a hundred percent trust him because he hasn’t sprinted in. Well, you know, you’re kind of guessing at this point, is he a better closing sprinter?
Uh, I guess you’d go on your own feel on that. The other, the other logical horses, the George Wevorce on the outside thorny tail, who I, uh, has been beaten by a. Blind Willie McKell both times, but I wouldn’t be surprised with this, the scenario in this race, um, and the weights, it makes up that, uh, that he can read.
He can turn on him, but blind Mattel is definitely a contender. The other two, that longer shots that I thought had a chance were funny guy and the big Lebanese. I’m not sure I would put them on, on a level, but both courses are interesting and I wouldn’t ignore them, but I think that’s the five contenders in the race somehow, some way.
J K. Do you see those as the contenders and how do you separate them? You know, I, I completely agree. I thought there was three horses that could win this race. Um, banket, uh, blind blue Mattel in thorny tail. I thought bank. It was interesting because I just remember when I was trying to develop a case for long range Tati.
Um, back in, I don’t remember if it was the Southwest where he ended up running second or third, and I remember kind of like digging up finding information and seeing that bank had in long range, Tata used to work together. And then I saw that bank. It was like working with all these kind of older, nice horses for, as you said, and then you look back at the prices that bank, it has always been these always bet.
And, and for a big operation like that, when you see a horse getting bad, there’s usually a sign and a reason why it’s not just because some, you know, Andy cameras are got some weird angle. And so I think that banking was always meant to be a good horse. And when good horses start doing what they probably should have been doing the entire time, I try to attend, I try to take notice and I think banking is cutting back.
And then that’s where he should be blind limit. Tell him thorny tale. This is another Mattise brother. Uh, Advice that I got a long time ago, the Duke kind of taught me about, was finding these two year old figures that fit with the three-year-olds that they’re running against now. And if you get any improvement, just from two to three that you could expect, you can expect thorny tail and blind Willie, um, 30 tail and blind winning Willie Mattel to, uh, to both kind of improve off of those numbers.
And I think both of them can be extremely live. Um, obviously they’re going to be better. But, uh, those are the only three that I need in here. You both struggled with that name a little bit. You don’t know the song blind Willy Mattel, or is it just the way that it’s written? No. It’s yeah. And thorny tales.
Paul, what’s your excuse? Well, I agree with J J K you know, my brother, my other brother, Greg hates the, when, when you put the two words together, those run on horses where, you know, cause they need 18 letters. So they, they put all those on together. He thinks that should be outlawed. He hates that. I think that’s what gets you stumbling.
Hey, if nothing else you go ahead. That bank. And I just want to make a point to, is the bank is coming out of the cause it’s on a national type of comment on the Louisiana Derby. Um, I have that raised very fast. And even though nobody has one out of the race, yet the horses have confirmed their figure and it wouldn’t be surprising to me if some of these horses that, that show up, uh, You know, at Churchill and Keene, Lyndon, New York and scattered all around, uh, from the Louisiana Derby started doing well.
And I think bank, it’s a kind of a key horse to me to see the verify, um, how good that race was with them. And, and it could lead to bombs even in the Derby. I was just going to ask, I was just gonna ask, I wasn’t planning on asking you this. Now I was going to save it for another pod appearance between now and the first Saturday in may.
But are you, uh, does that mean you’re on the, by my standards, spinoff train when it comes to this year’s Kentucky? No, not exactly though. I think he’s you, he, he’s a contender that nobody’s talking about. That there are, you know, people are overlooking and there, the Derby is, you know, it’s one of the things we were talking about earlier where you face the things that a normal day, you know, you’re always facing the Derby, but, but you know how to go about it.
There is going to be extreme value and the standards in the, uh, in the Derby, because he’s going to be so look and price wise. You’re almost going to be forced to go there, um, in, in some kind of capacity, but I don’t think he’s the most logical winner, you know, and, um, Yeah. I’m a little surprised that know that how people are not going to for Omaha beach as much as they would say another horse.
If, if, if somebody else had run that race that he ran at the Oaklawn, uh, last weekend, I think the buzz on him would be way, way more than, than it is. I mean, that was extremely impressive of race that he ran. And he’s definitely going to be the favorite in the Derby. I, I I’ve read things that. Where it’s up in the air and I, I’m not buying that.
I’m not buying it, especially after Mike Smith chooses the horse. I mean, the Derby more than any other race is driven by narratives. And I could just see the narrative taking, hold that, even though he had a ride on a prime Bob Baffert contender, he chose this one. And I just think that narrative is going to take hold more than people who are just saying, Oh, the only narrative is going to be Baffert has the favorite and it’s going to be Roadster.
I, I really don’t think so. I think you’re right. Paul, what do you think? J K the other two Bedford horses too. He’s got them on the book. Yeah. I don’t think, I don’t think Roadster will be sure. I’m not convinced. Roadster will be, won’t be the longest Baffert. I think game winner will be shorter than, than Roadster and I’m not a hundred percent sure about improbable.
Probable. But in problems, we get sucked along with the Omaha beach. Thanks. So city zip? I don’t think so. I mean, I think all T I, I liked the game winner point a lot. I hadn’t thought about it and I liked that one a lot, but I think you’re going with improbable as a bridge too far, but I mean, there is a logic to it.
Given the race he gave Omaha beach, who we all think is going to be the favorite. I think they can made a good point. I think there’ll be people who don’t want to go with Omaha beach. There’ll be. There’ll be some probable one shows up there and works good point. It’s a good word. Good points. Not even close.
That’s a good point. Well, you know, every year some horse has the work and that horse gets attention. Narrative-driven attention because of that. So I, I I’ll change my comment. If improbable has the quote unquote work, the work, he is also one at Churchill. There’ll be a lot of that. Uh, somebody said that to me yesterday, probable I had to win at church.
Well, city, zip cities zips have one to grade ones on the turf. It’s not like they, it’s not like they, I mean, I’m assuming two grade one’s winning a mile and a quarter. It’s not like they can’t get them collected one at a mile and a quarter and a day at the Spall one at a mile and a quarter and a grade one.
So it’s not like they can’t. That’s fair. That’s fair. That’s all good points. All good points. I still think that one seems a little fanciful, but I think to get the little extra narrative. Bump from what happens at Churchill that week? Well, Paul, we’re definitely going to have you back to talk more Derby at some point, probably on the flagship show, the, in the money players podcast, but we are just about out of time on this maiden voyage for the NYRA bets late pick five podcast, uh, and hopefully listeners enjoyed it.
I want to thank you, Paul Matisse. I want to thank you JK. I know you guys went far out of your way to do this today and we appreciate it. And not only that, I thank you for helping me pick the song. I was going to stick at the end of the show. It was undecided. I was going to go with maybe some sort of New York thing.
Like we brought it in today, but I’ve got a different direction to go now. And that’s just because of you guys. So that’s a good thing. Most of all, I want to thank all of you. The listeners you make, these shows so much fun to do. Stick with us, check out our other shows. You can find them all in the, in the money players podcast feed.
This show has been a production of in the money media in the money media’s business manager is drew Kotani. I’m Peter Thomas foreign Itau. We’ll be back before you know it. May you win all your photos.
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