NYRA Bets Show: Royal Ascot and Late Pick 5

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Hello and welcome to the NYRA vets late pick five show. I am filling in for our normal host, Peter Thomas foreign to tell who is over. Gallivanting around the, somewhere in the, in the UK watching, uh, watching horses run in straight grass courses. And, uh, I imagine he probably is celebrating now. And I think that he bet that the queen was going to be wearing pink today.

She is, I’m sure he’s cashed out ticket our guests, Paul Matisse. Paul, have you ever wagered on what the queen was going to be wearing for Royal Alaska? No, I, no, I haven’t, but, uh, I think I bet what kind of color sneakers you’re going to wear? I have made that wager that’s a, that’s a, that’s definitely a tough one to nail Craig Vernick.

Uh, his wife was wrong the other day when I went by there. She, uh, she bet red. I showed up with yellow. So. No, it’s definitely a tough situation to try to predict Paula, how much in, in, in your, uh, history of wagering as you got involved with Royal Alaska, and what do you think about kind of the, um, the, kind of the, the progression of international and us interests in, in Royal Ascot?

I actually am relatively new to, to ask God, you know, just about just with everybody else as it’s gained popularity over here, I’ve, I’ve kind of watched the long, um, you know, I’ve always, you know, because of the breeders cup, you kind of no, the European racing a little bit. Um, cause you can go back and watch all the replays.

So you know, the whole season and yeah. You know, the, there’s a little bit of a misconception that, uh, There’s a lot of great horses over there in Europe. They are, they’re actually, they’re good. Horses are kind of small compared to ours. You can pretty much follow all their they’re good horses. There’s only a handful of them, you know?

Um, and then they seem to all show up here on the Ascot. So Royal Ascot so that you, uh, it’s Epic. It’s pretty familiar when you feel the names. Now, you know, as, uh, as time goes on, you probably feel the same way. Yeah. You know, I’ve, I’ve thought it’s, it’s fun. I, I, there’s something about pancakes, coffee, and world class racing that I appreciate.

So that’s probably the good part about it. Um, I made a joke the other day that if Royal Ascot took place, uh, at about three o’clock or four o’clock on a Saturday during the summer, I probably wouldn’t even take it. Uh, sniff at it. I just I’d prefer to, to focus on Saratoga and, and, uh, even, even look ahead to Del Mar rather than, than wager on, on horses and surfaces and trainers and riders that I’m not as familiar with, but something about it at nine 30 in the morning on a Tuesday is, uh, is, is something I can get into.

So I think that the, where you, where it lands helps quite a bit, without a doubt, you know, the, uh, I. I’m amazed that we haven’t done more racing in the different times of the day. And especially in the morning, we actually have never like tried it except on the big days. And I’m just surprised that we haven’t done anything more.

Um, I’m kind of used to it a little bit because on Wednesday mornings they’d run Hong Kong and I’ve done that for 15, 20 years. So I know I don’t follow it every Wednesday necessarily, but, uh, You know, I, I had to get up at six, five, six in the morning to, to, uh, to play a lot of Hong Kong racists, which, uh, like you say, it’s always fun to have a little breakfast action.

W what do you think would happen? Do you think it would be well-received if one of our C level tracks, and I’m not going, gonna name any C-level tracks, but I think we all know kind of what those C-level tracks are, the tracks that run on, you know, on Tuesday nights and, and so on and so forth. What do you think would happen if one of those.

Those meats are one of those racetracks decided to try to run it at 8:00 AM Eastern or nine Eastern, uh, on a Tuesday or a Monday, or even a Saturday starting significantly earlier than, than the, kind of the great, a type of racing that we have in the school. That’s the one I think Saturday, you know, and, uh, I think it would be okay if they ran some of the, the state races and stuff that some of these tracks do, you know, like, uh, You know, on a Saturday afternoon, we have all these different stakes races that run all at the same time.

And sometimes the secondary tracks, even though they’ve got a big race, you know, nobody even watches it. You know, I mean, uh, I’m curious, you know, the HIO Derby is running this this weekend, you know, and I I’m sure for a lot of people it’s going to get lost, you know, and this wasn’t even a big weekend, but you know, I’m one of those big weekends.

If somebody ran a stake races in the morning and. You know, if it was close to other tracks, I would think that you’d have big Jacquees flying in and flying out and riding to different places. And I think it’d be very newsworthy, you know, but uh, nothing raised, there’s not a lot of creativity in the, on the racing end, unfortunately.

Uh, you know, I’d like to see them do more, you know? Yeah. It would be fun. It kind of reminds me of those weird situations where there’s like those. You know, Hawaii plays football at 11 o’clock at night, and there’s, they’re not up against anybody and on, and you can even catch those early morning, 10:00 AM, uh, big 10 football games from time to time or so on and so forth.

So I think you could make some, make some sense for sure. Well, we are going to dive straight into this, uh, late pick five sequence. On Saturday and give some, some of the listeners, some ideas and ways that, uh, that you and I will be looking at it and trying to approach it. And, and, um, uh, Paul is, is, uh, is, is obviously the King of dirt, but don’t let him fool you that he can’t lead you into some positive directions when it comes to turf.

You’ve actually helped my Terp handicap in quite a bit from a conversation that we had out at the NHC to kind of talk about the, the idea that you have about a horse’s ability to Quicken. And it’s not so much the final time or even so much the final three eights that they run, which I think a lot of people use that number for their late pace number, but more, more how, how quickly they can go from that Gallup in the early part of the race to their full speed finish and, and how much of a difference they can.

They can, uh, they can make up in that little gap is what is an important thing that we can see in interfacing in American and often. No people want to know why Chad Brown’s turf horses run so well. And what the answer that I would give you is that his horse is Quicken. And when the running starts, whether it’s a slow paced or a, a, a, uh, or a fast paced, his horse is quick.

And before we jump into this, I look, I, I completely understand. I think most people have heard you talk about why you like dirt so much and, and, and all of those reasons. Tell us a little bit about your thoughts about turf and what makes it so complicated and what you try to do when you’re looking at turf phrases and try to find a winner.

Well, I mean, you hit on a lot of it. You know, the, uh, the racing is not a, a sustained Gallup, like, uh, like a dirt race would be, or a standard American race would be even a six for a long, um, a dirt race in the United States. It has, it takes more stamina than, than a mile race on the third. It’s not, uh, you know, um, you have to run, run hard throughout the race.

We’re in a turf race. It’s, it’s all about, you know, what you’re talking about. The who’s got the fastest eight strides and who uses the strides at the right time, you know, and or both, and how it, how it, uh, um, combines, you know, uh, sort of sprints. You know, you’ll see this, uh, you know, it’s, it’s the opposite that forced strides out of the gate and four strides when you, after they turned for home, you know, and, uh, you know, use a personal example, you’ll pay any price.

Has. He has four real strong quickens, you know, uh, four strides. You’ve got two of them. We always talk about it. He’s got two moves, you know, and the first one gets them there. And then the second one is the one that scoots him away, you know? And, um, and that’s basically what turf racing is. And if you know the thing about Patty price is a good example is that he’s got a down.

So he does it in the two right. Spots of the race. No, he does it from the gate. And then he does it when he turns for home when the, when the running starts. And it’s a little bit more complicated when it’s, uh, when the distances are further because, uh, you know, trip dictate sometimes. But, uh, you know, if you’re watching trips, I think you watch and say, all right, this horse Quicken at the wrong time, you’ll find horses that, uh, that you can bet back because if they, if they move into the turn and it didn’t do him any good.

Or if they moved with another horse and they were outside of them and, um, the run didn’t go, as you know, they didn’t get to use the run and you have to, you have to use a lot more of that stuff than the standard, you know, form figures, bias, you know, um, pace, all those other things that you, that you’re accustomed to and racing that you can, you can do off the form pretty readily.

You can’t do in turf racing, you know, that’s why figures don’t need as much, because I think figures would mean as much as we, if we could measure those eight strikes better. You know, if we, if we could do things that would, uh, or, you know, as a distance go out, obviously it’s more, that’s the difference between a sort of router than, than a turf mile.

It is that they have a longer Quicken, you know, um, if we could measure a lot stuff a little differently, I think it might be. A little bit more handicapable but, uh, unfortunately we don’t, and it’s still situational, you know, turf racing is very situational and, uh, you have to be aware of that. Some people like that because it’s more randomness, you know, we’ve talked about it probably, uh, your listeners probably don’t want to hear anymore about it.

I think that the randomness takes away from the handicapping, you know, and that’s why I, uh, I prefer to for dirt racing, but, uh, You know that, uh, that sort of thing is, uh, yeah, you have to be as turf racing becomes more and more, uh, you know, a stronger thing in this country you’re going to have to, uh, you know, you have to learn more of those things up for phrasing, you know, if you’re going to be successful.

Absolutely. Like, you know, like you mentioned, it’s, it’s eight strides. We’re, we’re, we’re evaluating a turf race where the real running happens in eight strides. Versus a dirt race where it happens in, you know, 300 shreds. It’s right. It’s uh, it’s you, you have a better opportunity to B, to B, to B to predict what’s going to happen when there’s, when there’s a more, uh, more of a sample size.

Right. And when there’s only eight out of, out of 300, that can make it a lot more challenging. I completely agree. I mean, I know a lot of guys in the NHC would. You know, NHC and these contest players, they love turf racing, um, because of the randomness, it, it, it allows you to get those 27 to one shots that no one else is playing because they can’t see them.

Um, those don’t happen nearly as often in dirt racing. Now it can happen sometimes. And it usually is, is pace dependent. When it happens, a horse gets loose at 27 Oh one and wins or a horse. The rates falls apart in a horse wins at 27 to one. There’s not usually a normal run race where a 20, 71 shot wins just doesn’t happen very much.

Well, it can happen because of the situation. But, but the thing about it is that you’ll, you’ll see it more handicapable wise, but I think you make a great point about the concept players is because, you know, they, you need prices to win contest. Then you, you, and you need more randomness, you know, you need, you need that sort of thing.

So it’s pretty, uh, I’m not, I’m not, I don’t get upset anybody for liking that more especially contest players. I, I understand it completely. It’s just, uh, I think when it becomes more random, you know, you have less confidence and that it becomes something that’s not all that predictable, you know, it’s almost like, uh, all right, we’re going to pick numbers that, you know, it’s not that it’s not to that degree, but you know, the analogy is there and, uh, You know that that’s just part of the game.

It doesn’t make it any better or less. I don’t think it’s just, you know, you just gotta be aware of it. It’s, uh, I think that’s the different nature. You know, a lot of people talk about other things about paraphrasing, but to me, that’s the big difference. And I, I think what we’ve done because the American horses have run on the dirt primarily, uh, for the last a hundred, 150 years, you know, we’ve got this idea of perfect breeding, but I’ve been, I’ve been, uh, Thinking about that a lot.

And I think it’s more of what we’ve, we’ve just discussed about situations and pace rather than breeding and, and, and, uh, that sort of thing. Um, you know, I think more, more, so it’s the opposite that there’s, uh, there’s less horses that are bred to run in the dirt. I think most horses will run on the turf and that as I’ve done stuff like this Royal Ascot, like, and all that.

That are, are primarily turf and, uh, you know, Hong Kong and Japan, you know, you really see the difference between dirt and turf horses there. And that dirt is the different one. And that’s why I say the dirt or the better horses, because I shouldn’t say better, but that’s the word I use just because I don’t know.

I don’t know what the right word Redford is, but, um, but. That’s why I still believe that’s why the, uh, the what’s the rest of the world comes to get our stallions because we figure out who the better horses are. A lot of these other places it’s all about. Who’s just had the best Quicken. And that’s why, um, it doesn’t always transfer when, when you’re breeding a, uh, uh, uh, uh, turf horse, because it’s, well, they have eight strikes, but you know, that’s might be boy, you get.

You know, and, uh, if you want to really, uh, you know, the great horses, we’ll, we’ll run them on the dirt. And that’s not to say that a good turf horse somewhere else would not handle the dirt. You know, I mean, Galileo came to the United States, ran the breeders’ cup, and the first time he were in the dirt, he got beat, you know, a handful of lengths in the breeders’ cup classic.

So he obviously could run on the dirt. To me, that’s a signal that he’s going to, it would be a great sire. You know, he was, you know, he had, he had the strong Quicken, but he was able to handle the dirt. And, uh, it’s really, uh, it’s fascinating, but I think maybe if you’re just, if you’re thinking turf breeding kind of thing, the other way, I think things will, will become clearer for you.

Yeah. Maybe that’s yeah, I think maybe, uh, like a, like a really prominent and dominant dirt sire. And, and get some turf and maybe your pedigree of, of the female family. And suddenly you’re, you’re sitting on a, an opportunity to, at a really nice horse, um, to work Kerlin, uh, purlins, you know, we’ll get a good third force, you know, a horse who obviously was hurt by running on the third, you know, um, he didn’t, he didn’t get the seat and show his, uh, you know, brilliance when he ran on the turf for the, or the synthetic, but yet.

Because he is such a great horse. He will get, like you say, if he matches up with the right horse, he’ll get a horse that can run with her. But I don’t think that’s because of surface or of a breeding. I think it’s more, you know, of what, you know, that, that horse that he’s producing is, has gotten, has got more of a Quicken, you know, to it.

So, um, I think it will be really interesting to see what happens with like American Pharaoh’s. I know that cool. Moore’s obviously the support him. Um, internationally as well. So we’ll see a lot of American is running on turf over there, and I’m sure we’ll see a few over here. It’ll be interesting to see how, how, uh, how those horses pan out.

Uh, you know, probably the same with justify we’ll have to wait a lot longer. He was out of Scott, uh, Scott by scat daddy. So obviously there’s some turf there, so he shouldn’t have any problem getting a horse to run on the turf. Um, but it should be yeah. Justify it justify it’s fast. Right? He had, he had the Quicken.

I mean, I would, I would really predict that he, he will, uh, He will get good to her forces, you know, I mean, he might get good at every horse, but my guess is that he’ll, he’ll, he’ll get good for forces for sure. Well, we’ve got, uh, we, we, you know, I think back to that race that we were at Santa Anita, you know, if you want to see his and ability, you know, when he, when he ran by the horses, you know, in the slot.

Yeah, yeah. You know, and the allowance race, you know, I mean, you saw what. Well, we’re talking about in a dirt race, you know, so, um, that’s why I, there’s no doubt in my mind he would be a turf horse, you know, or tourist Dyer. Um, I’m, I’m one with the approach this morning of a, of a teach a man to fish rather than give them a fish approach.

So we spent 20 minutes talking just about racing and theory and ideas, and we’re going to spend about eight to 10 minutes blasting through. This late, take five, getting some ideas. We will start with the sixth race. It is a maiden special way, uh, for a New York bridge, uh, maiden special weight. This is the type of race where I’d like to single a horse in here.

And that’s the three risks. Um, the, for Golani brigade for Chad Brown will obviously take a lot of money, but I love the idea that this horse risk ran a really fast numbers. A two year old in August with a bad trip. And now it comes back as a three-year-old gets. Joelle has been working consistently, and this is the type of horse.

I like the single, when you can beat a big favorite, what did you, uh, go here, Paul? Yeah, that’s right. That I had funny, I had like three watchlist horses racing and that was one of them from last year. You know, I, I was really impressed with him, uh, last year and I was waiting for him to come back and he never did.

Um, I’m not sure what the whole, uh, writers switches were. Uh, Castillano stays with Chad. Chad versus he rode the horse last year. I mean, it was a long time ago. There might not have been a, uh, you know, commitment there, but, uh, I don’t know what that means exactly. Um, but I, I definitely think the three is the most likely winner, even though he hasn’t won since August.

My, one of my other watch list sources was the five later cat who, uh, took money and got left and I thought ran really well. And the. For his first start, the only, maybe if you had one, the negative on it is that, uh, the pace was real fast in that race. And, uh, he was able to recover in close, but even so I think I might want to use him, you know, uh, I probably will go with both of those, the three, the five, and, uh, you know, it is, we are lucky that this is the first leg.

If any, the first time was take significant money or money that I would like to, uh, That, uh, that you might have to, you might want to throw in one of the first there’s that him, and it might be something like, um, the six who, uh, if he took money, um, you know, not, not just, not just only the four, but, uh, you know, if the six was, was four or five to one, I make sure I wouldn’t get beat by him either, but, uh, But I think of the horses I’ve run the three and five are the right two.

Yeah. And I think there’s a couple of quick points to some of the things you said. I think the reason that Javier is on the horse for Chad is Javier, Chad and John Payne got to have a great relationship. And I just would imagine that that Javier would lean towards. Uh, riding for Chad rather than, than, than Tom Bush.

That, that would just be my guess. Um, he probably didn’t want to upset things in Saratoga coming up too. Absolutely. Yeah. When you got that around the corner onto race seven, we’re going to go a mile and a 16th on the green stuff. And what have we got here? A non winners too. Oh, no, we’re in, we’re a, it’s a allowance.

Yes. Well, not the third one other than, yeah. What did you think about this one? I spent a lot of time in this race. It didn’t come easy to me. W you know, uh, it’s, it’s kinda wide open. I had a, I won’t even watch, went back and watched some replaced because, uh, I was, uh, uncertain about this race. Right. My final conclusion was that the, that the four sun summers is actually making a, uh, a class drop here.

And even though, uh, he got, he got. Uh, fast paced last time. It was a weird wind day at mamas. And, uh, I’m going to kind of look past that. I just think it’s more of the, uh, the idea that he’s, uh, getting a class relief in the last race that he ran. Two horses have run out of it. They ran one, two, and they ran a huge figures.

So that kind of backs up what I’m thinking. I went back and watched the race on may 26, that a lot of the horses were coming out of. Um, I didn’t have anything, you know, wrong with anybody who ran in that race. And if you wanted to take any of those, that’s the, uh, three, seven and nine, particularly the three who, who did what we talked about before.

I thought he quickened in the wrong spot. He was in the, he was the widest. He had no position. He might be a Wong wild, you know, one that, that, uh, I would use as well. Um, maybe three, four, but I I’m gonna, I’m gonna. I’m definitely going to lean on the four. I had four one, three seven, nine, 10 as my backup, but, uh, I think the four, maybe even a possible single in the sequence, um, I saw the three.

Exactly. I was looking to find which horse had the biggest Quicken, because we had kind of talked about that so much on the show. I wanted to give people an example and I think the three probably add the biggest Quentin Quicken. And he also has the old handicapping. Um, notion of closing into a slow pace.

Um, so that was another, another way that the 10 on the outside, I’ve got no idea how to say the name. And since Pete’s not here, I’m not even going to try. He’d give me a hard time. Um, that horse drawn on the far outside with not a lot of pace in the race has shown some speed. I love when, when, when you need someone to go and they draw somewhere where they don’t really have a choice.

And so I think that horse will go forward. You don’t have to worry about any silly. And I didn’t go to horses is very likely to be. And the try just based on the pace and the figure last time. So, um, very interesting on the, for some summers onto the eight, uh, six and a half on the dirt, what did you, uh, what’d you see?

Well, this brings a lot of people are going to lean on the five here. And I think in the sequence, this races is a little difficult, more difficult than that, you know, um, he hasn’t run since, uh, an almost a full year. I mean, Georgia Ray was a Chad Brown disciple. So these long layoffs and the fact that they run, you know, just the fact that they run them, uh, is always a good sign just because that means they’re doing good.

Um, so I’m not against him per se, but you know, he, he comes across as that. He’s got the highest figures and he’s the best horse, but there’s a lot of tricky for him in this race. And I’m not sure that that just his race is alone last year when it. Um, you know, I th there seems to be a pretty good pace in the race, but I think those, the, the tourists that are the primary speeds to it, the three and the eight are fast horses and good horses.

So it should be a really good run race. The, uh, the tricky ones I had were the horse, like the two Caz mania we’ve talked about before. He’s got good figures as to, you know, as a two-year-old. Turning three. And a lot of times those horses will improve. He ran against the blind Willie Mattel. That was a very productive race.

He had a crazy trip in that race. The last time he ran and, uh, he’s working good at Monmouth. I think he’s a sneaky horse to get in it. Another sneaky horses, the big Lebanese who has had blinkers on last time, but he went, he stretched out to a mile. I have, uh, it’s, uh, it’s a. Uh, fast paced, fast, middle, where he actually did the running.

And now he’s cutting back. Um, track might might’ve been a little favor in the inside last time. Think he’s an interesting, a long shot. And just because of race dynamics, even though I don’t particularly think smoking platinum is as good as, as other horses, he could, I could see him sitting in a good spot off the, uh, the two speeds of three and eight.

So, uh, I’m gonna spread a little here and go to five, seven, nine, and hope that we can beat the five. Um, but it’s a very good race. And, uh, you know, I, I think that you can get some price though, maybe between the two in the seven, for sure. Um, it’s, it’s probably a better race to bet, uh, vertically than horizontally, because you might have to use some more, uh, coverage, but, uh, it’s a very good race.

The greatest sire, Andy caffeine sire in the world chick Mattise would say the nine could get a good situation, right? No doubt. Andres nine, a wild applause mile on the turf. What did you think of care? Well, this is the, you know, the, the Thursday grace, where Chad, Brown’s got three of the six and the other three horses all work off, you know, uh, Ted below every, all the other ones.

That don’t the interesting thing here was that, although the one in the five on speed figures match up with the foreign six, um, I think the pace had something to do with that. Both of them were also a very fast paced on a, on a weird turn, of course. And I think that’s maybe why, um, the figure was inflated.

I noticed I noticed two RS and so, um, nothing tricky. I think, I just think that the two Chad Brown’s, that will be bet the most and, uh, you know, to hope to get through this one. I can’t see spread more than that. You know, I don’t have any knock. I need the horse. I’d like, like both of them, the, uh, the race that Nova soul before was in has produced a lot of good, uh, uh, three winners and horses that have run higher figures.

And I thought blowout, uh, clearly, uh, was written 10 to 10 of last time. It should have won that race was clearly the best horse in that race. And, um, I know they, they both have worked together and both at work. Good. So I just say, you know, and she had to be trusted with take, take, take the two of them. And hopefully we get through this leg.

Those are the two I liked. And I think a lot of times in these situations, it’s, you can follow, you can kind of follow the writers a little bit with Chad. Um, and where I ran in Javier go is usually where you want to go. And then no, that’s no offense to Kendrick and maybe Kendrick shouldn’t be more.

Involved in the Chad Brown barn with his aggressive nature, but I don’t think that’s the way Chad wants his horses written. Uh, but still it’s a great opportunity for kids. I just would warn him, you know, and cause you’re going to see a lot of these races in the next few months. Don’t just, uh, the fault to that, to what we did.

And here in this race, I really looked to try to beat those doors and just came to the conclusion that didn’t, that. But that wasn’t the right way to go. And sometimes when you’re handed Kevin you’ll look one way and it points you in a different direction. And, uh, but, uh, I will want against doing that, especially this, this year, uh, certain folk, I think it’s gonna be a little bit different than it has been in the past.

Uh, you know, uh, as far as competition with Chad and, uh, he seems to have more horses within his own barn. So, um, You know, you might not, it might not go as the same exact way it’s going in prior years. So don’t just, just don’t default to that. But in this case, I think, uh, it kind of ended up that way. And then onto the finale, the maiden claimer six on the turf, I’m sure those are your favorite races to bet.

And, and, and all of American racing. Who did you like here? Well, this race is a race in a, a good lesson for the pic. You know, for anything horizontal, because this is not a race you can tie you up. So you got to speculate a little bit in this leg weather. Now, my feeling when you’re speculating is not to use as many horses like, you know, and the other leg I use for horses, but I don’t feel like I was speculating.

You know what I mean? You know, don’t speculate using seven horses. You know, I mean, if you have, if you have a strong, you know, strong opinions and other races, you know, you might have an old one, a race like this, um, you know, because it isn’t a race you can tie up and something could happen. However, if you don’t have a strong opinion in the other legs and you can’t afford to take an all, you know, uh, you’ve got, you gotta narrow yourself down and, and you don’t, don’t get yourself caught where you take too many of them.

Um, Along those lines. I’m not a horse that, that I, that I’m definitely going to use as the one. And, um, I want to talk about him a little bit just because it’s a good lesson that I’ve learned in turf sprints is that horses that go to the lead in route and route races primarily do it because they’re they’re distance challenged.

If you see a horse that goes to the lead all the time, he truly doesn’t want to go that distance. His better distance is better. Quickie distance is shorter. So a lot of times, if you can take those speed horses on cutbacks, they are coming back to where the proper distance for them and they, and they’re able to close and they’re able to run more like a.

A normal per phrase. So, um, in America we see this a lot just because of the, to turn dynamic. And so a horse will run a mile and go on the lead, but he’s not really a miler, you know what I mean? And so when these horses cut back to six full ones, I think they’re, um, you know, th they’re always horses that I, that I’m looking for.

So I’m definitely gonna use the one because of that. Um, I think the three is probably my other one that I would use. On the, uh, put blinkers on and dropping. I’m not sure the 10 to one morning line is, uh, is going to be, uh, you’re not going to get the new one, but I do think the big drop in, uh, you know, from the baby special weight drop to the maiden claimer and the fact that, um, he was so far behind and I actually, even though we ran 11th, 11th, 11th, think that he, um, No, he showed a Quicken in his race, you know, that we were talking another hidden, hidden Quicken, which we were talking about.

So those would be the two that I would probably lean to. Um, I just mentioned that the number five, um, James, you know, James Bond has been very high fall spring in New York and that horse was in a, in a real, uh, fast pace. So I wouldn’t fault anybody for, uh, for using him and, uh, And there’s plenty of other ones.

I mean, we could talk about this race. There’s a lot of possibility, so I don’t want to steer anybody off of what, of what they like in that race. But, uh, you know, you’re going to have to stick your neck out on there because you’re not tying that one up. Yeah. One of the, one of the, one of the things that I thought about this race was, was as I like the five  as well.

I think that sometimes if you can, you know, there’s good information in the last race, the May 17th race, and you talked about the fast pace. I think sometimes if you can just mentally cross out a race and then kind of ask yourself, okay, now the race two back or three back, what happens there? The horse would be even money right on the race that ran to back with a really fast figure, um, going six and was bet that day and had a little bit of a trip in there.

So I thought that one was, was, was live. And I also thought the seven Jack MCAT, these horses are always hard for me. I always start with the droppers and then try to work backwards from there. So, um, Good luck if, uh, you know, nailing a horse that you love in this 40 claimer and you make a good point with the, you know, um, throwing lines for races.

However, I would like to prefer in those situations where you have a reason why the horse, you know, ran bad or you had a reason why the form might not be as good. Um, even if it’s, uh, not as, uh, A strong as a reason as maybe as you would, like as long as there was something, you know, I don’t like the idea of playing horses off bed races, where you have no idea why they ran bad.

I think that’s a great, a good handicapper will dive into that race and find out, you know, did this horse actually run his race and it wasn’t shown through, you know, this, uh, this is a real easy example of. You know, this horse was in a, in a fast pace and he ran, he ran almost as good as he did in the race before it, even though the results weren’t the same.

So this one’s not difficult one, but you know, just in general in when you’re, when you’re looking at things like that, I think you make a good point. You want to look for horses like that, but have reasons if you can. And if you can’t find reasons to keep digging, because that’s what handicapping for me is about when you can find, you know, I don’t like the idea of just saying.

He didn’t do any running last time, but, um, you know, I’m going to come back to it. I think if you can, if you can decipher the two, you’ll be really successful handicap. And if you can, if you can go, which ones you want to go back, that’s what you want to do. You know, I, when I, when I first got started, one of the things I used to do is I, if I liked the horse or I didn’t like a horse, or what if I didn’t, if I didn’t like a horse and a horse won a race, uh, I would look for the, the, the race that kind of got me off of him.

And I’d go back and watch it and try to find an excuse as to why the horse, what I missed. W where, where was I wrong? Where did I go wrong? And you end up finding really weird things that you might not notice, especially if you’re not watching a lot of replays, you might find out that maybe a horse hates being on the inside.

You might find out that a horse shied from the width. Yeah. There’s things that aren’t listed in the trip notes. So I would always encourage people a hundred Watts. Great, great examples, you know, and there’s, and there’s lots of them. There’s an infinite amount of them. That’s why I always say I’ll listen to anybody, you know, for handicapping advice, because there’s so many little, little things I used to think about the horses didn’t like in the inside or outside, I thought that was all nonsense.

And the more I dug into it, the more, you know, of different things I found about how horses. Why they like the inside, why, why they liked the outside and, um, you know, those are, those are really key in handicapping, you know? And, um, you know, a lot of people under underestimate it. They’ll, they’ll, they’ll tease you and say, you’re red boarding when you go back and look for a horse.

And I think that’s all nonsense, you know, to me, that’s the, that’s the, the best thing you can do to, to be a better handicappers is what you said to go back and find out what you missed and what you can use the next time. Paul. I’m going to wrap it up here with you. I, I did want to ask you one more question.

I meant to ask you earlier, we ended up speeding over it and I don’t know if you remember or not, but I’m just curious for, we have a lot of contests, people that listen, when you won the NHC. How many turf forces, how many turf races were, were involved in, in kind of your, your Excel to the top? Was, was there, was there very many?

I know, I know that the, one of the biggest ones was late that the dirt horse down at Tampa, um, the cap horse at Tampa. But did you have any turf cap horses or any big price? Uh, turf horses wouldn’t when you played in the NAC the year that you won? No, I didn’t. You know, on the final table, there was a couple key things that happened in the surf races, but getting there, um, Almost wasn’t at all.

And, but, you know, it was funny. I, they announced that the term phrases were going to be off the turf. Uh, the second day on the first day when I won the NAC and I can remember I had, I had to go downstairs and I remember thinking in the, uh, and thinking in the, uh, elevator that this is my chance this year, because.

There’s less randomness. And I just thought to myself, this, you know, this, this is, this is what this was early in the it, but I said, we’re not going to have as many of these surf races. And I just, uh, uh, I can remember that thought going through my mind, this, this is the year that I have a chance, you know, that, uh, that no, no craziness is going to happen.

And it was funny. It kind of worked out that way. Um, you know, uh, I think that was, I think that was just a circumstance for me. That was lucky, you know, that, uh, and the fact that I was, I was more prepared for that than maybe some, everybody else, you know, everybody goes there and, and, and is looking for turf rates.

And then all of a sudden there weren’t any on the first two days, you know, that, uh, definitely, uh, probably threw a lot of people off. And I, and I, and I was aware of it. I, I can, I can remember, uh, thinking that. You know, early on in the, in the tournament, but, uh, you know, I’ve had other tournaments where turf races has been played a big part and, you know, like we talked about, there’s definitely going to be, I’m sure you’ve had the same where, uh, we’re we’re, even though I preferred to be the other way and be less random, uh, you know, sometimes you need, you need a little bit that rents just when you get behind, you know, I remember, uh, not too long ago, I had a turf, uh, that a contest and I bet like a.

35 to one shot, got the lead on in a surf race, knowing that anything could happen, you know, and he got the lead and it was, you know, there was a mess behind him and he held on, you know, and, uh, you know, so sometimes you have to, you know, you have to speculate sometimes in contests too, you know, and, uh, you know, being, being aware of what is going on of, in, in these contests, particularly of, is this a race I should be speculating?

Is this a race that I should be taking? Uh, uh, a flyer with something and or is this a race that’s going to be forceful to me is the key of those contests, you know, sometimes in the shorter versions of the contest, you, uh, it doesn’t matter because there’s just not another, not enough of the other races.

That’s one of the reasons why I really liked the NEC format is that there’s just so many races. And over time, if you’re making the right decisions based on, should I be, um, Should I be speculating or should I not be, um, you know, you’re gonna have more success, you know, and I like that. And I think that’s what you should be doing.

And all of these concepts, even, uh, even in a 10 or 12 or online, I’m sure you, you have similar thoughts of that too. You know? Um, the idea of, I just take the 20 to one shot, every race mentality. I can’t do it, right. Yeah, no, you just got to play in that and that’s one of the reasons. Um, I’ve, I’ve seen myself kind of get away from those is I, I find so many races where I don’t have opinions and I just ended up kind of guessing.

And I don’t, I don’t like guessing at this game. I want to do what I think is going to happen and if I’m wrong, I’m wrong. But, um, it was funny as I haven’t thought about it until I asked you that question. My, the year that I did well at the NHC where I had two entries. It, I, my two biggest hits were one was on the poly at golden gate and the other one was a terse sprit.

So, uh, and now I don’t even play it sort of racism in the contest unless the mandatory. So, um, funny, and maybe I should re maybe I should rethink that. No, I’m not going to rethink it, but well, no, I wouldn’t put yourself, you know, thinking about you in any of these and anything in racing, you know, betting or never put yourself in a box, you know that you’re not going to do anything.

You know, you’ve come prepared and you have an idea, but you, you, you you’ve gotta be on your toes and you gotta be able to, to be versatile. Um, I think Brad Thomas is the one that he, he says that more eloquently than I just did, but, uh, Paul, but here’s the reason that I do it. Here’s the reason that I do it is that, is that is that I feel like with 10 opportunities of dirt horses, I like at prices that I like.

I have a better opportunity of striking at those than wasting one of those opportunities on a speculum, a speculated turf situation where I hope I get a good trip. And I hope that the figures that I’m, I’m a figure based horseplayer I’m hoping that the figure is right for the Ray is a lot of hopes in the opportunity to try to play that one turf race.

Now look, if there’s a, if there’s like a, uh, a hidden trip horse that I have, it’s been on my watch list that shows up is 12 to one and there’s three Chad’s in there. And I really think it can beat them. Then that’s a situation where all I’ll dig, even though I’ve I’ve sworn I was only going to zag, but I just feel like giving myself the best opportunities at forwardly placed dirt horses that were maybe against the bias last time or.

Or their figures were much faster than the public handicappers gave him. I feel like having as many opportunities to hit those horses gives me my best shot. I could be wrong about that, but that’s kind of like, no doubt, no doubt. You’re a hundred percent. Right. But, uh, but, but you still have to be on your toes at any, any point, you know, you just don’t know where it’s going to come from, you know?

And, uh, I think you’re aware of that, but, uh, you know, it, uh, That’s what makes it great, you know, that’s, that’s what makes those contests fun, you know, but I just don’t think getting yourself locked into anything. I see a lot of players, you know, uh, that, uh, that just do one thing and that’s all I’m going to do, and I’m not gonna, I’m not gonna vary.

That’s usually, uh, you know, and it may help you mentally, a lot of the other things about racing, but it’s, it’s not what you, uh, it’s not, uh, uh, a recipe for success. Overall, you know, um, especially in concepts where you have to do things where, where you might, like you said, well, you might not have an opinion.

So you, you know, I mean, you, you you’ve signed up for an online contest. You might, you might have one, one opinion and it’s well racist. So you’re going to have to, uh, you know, you’re going to have to use your imagination and, and, uh, do things that you might not normally, you know, so, um, I just don’t, I don’t like the idea of locking into anything, you know, You know, especially when you’re betting.

I mean, I hear people say, well, I’m going to, uh, I’m only going to single perfect races or I’m only gonna single, you know, maiden races. Well, don’t always do anything like that. You know, each one’s a different puzzle, you know, you, you got to, uh, you gotta be aware of what’s of the environment of what’s going on and then react to it.

One, one thing I know, for sure you’ll be locked into is, uh, is the backyard with the purple. Tablecloth, you got it. You already got the tablecloth ordered ready for Saratoga. I’ve definitely, they have them all. We got that we’d been collecting all year and now it is where we get gifts, where people will give them to us.

So it’s like a Christmas presents and stuff, or purple tablecloths. It’s funny. But, uh, yeah, it’s coming up fast, like, you know, I, I know it starts earlier this year, so it, it, it actually is coming up faster, but it just seems like, uh, can’t believe it’s 20 days away in the last 10 years. How many days of Saratoga have you missed in the last 10 years?

Five, maybe five or six? No, the biggest one is I, you know, I don’t want to tell him that we’ve gone over, but, uh, No. I got really sick the day that Kenai the American Pharaoh on the Travers. And, uh, I had to leave and, uh, it’s like one of the most sick days I’ve ever been in my life. And, uh, yeah, I was, I was in on to run happy before, before anybody only by walking really circumstance where, um, somebody that was associated with the horse.

Called me and asked me if, uh, about figures and if they had any chance, if it was worth coming to Saratoga. And, uh, I think it was, uh, it wasn’t a direct call from anybody. They just, they just were asking for opinions and, and I said, yeah, definitely come, come to Saratoga. You know? And, uh, so I was, I was prepared for running happy and, uh, and I got sick really bad.

And, uh, it’s, uh, It’s amazing how things work out. I just, I played a few exact days with them and some races before he, before I passed out and, uh, I didn’t use limousine liberal, so I blew everything in the race. And then it turns out my son who was 13 or 14 at the time who was a big keen ice fan. And we had talked about the keynotes could beat American fare on the Travers, played, played the Pickford, had the biggest day of his life and, you know, uh, It costs me a lot.

That sickness cost me lots and lots of money. I’m over it now. But let me tell you, I just got over it. It’s been, so I remember, you know, like you’re saying miss days, that was the Ms. Day, uh, in the last 10 years of Saratoga, for sure. Well, Paul, I, uh, I appreciate you jumping on with us and sorry for going a little bit longer than, than, uh, no, not at all.

I’m glad that you stuck racing all day long. I’m glad that quinoa pool wasn’t open. Cause we, we were right about Neha Beth. I know that he was one of the best ones, but uh, he, uh, she, excuse me, was drawn to the wrong side of that corporation in that race. Yeah. That’s the thing, you know, just what we talked about, third phrases, you know, it’s more situations instead of, you know, I think you hit it that perfect.

That’s the way it is, you know, situations dictate, not right. Okay. Well, Paul, I’m sure we’ll have you on again soon. And we’re always extremely gracious, Pete and I both, but also our listeners for, for you taking the time to share your wisdom, it’s always a real treat for all of us to have you on always fun.

Talking to her about the Jackson. Anytime you see up at Saratoga, you will see you soon. Yep. Okay. All right, everybody. I always forget how Pete ins this thing. When I have to host it by myself, I think he says something about winning photos. So, um, we, uh, want to thank, uh, all of our partners, uh, stats, race lens, uh, black type thoroughbreds, uh, the thoroughbred retirement foundation.

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