Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 1/25/25 – By Eric Solomon

A super-sized 12 race card is highlighted by the $1,000,000 Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, which offers critical Derby Points for those looking to gain entry into the Run for the Roses. There’s an additional Pick-5 offered, starting in Race 5, and an additional Pick-4 starting in Race 6. This is a tremendous Card with several quality races and some excellent wagering opportunities. First post is at 11:25 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

A strong N1X allowance race starts the loaded, 12 race card. This is a strong group, but I think Baddest Good Boy (#5) has a bright future in front of him. He ran very well to break his maiden on debut, beating What A Blessing after a thrilling stretch battle. That one had a troubled trip to be 5th yesterday, but the 4th place finisher, who wasn’t far behind the top duo, added blinkers and won that race impressively. He’s sired by Bernardini out of a Pleasantly Perfect mare, so trying two turns in his second career start seems like a reasonable move. There are some consistent runners that put up big figures, so he’s going to have to be up to the challenge. Norm Casse is 5-28 (18%) with second time starters in their first route race over the last five years. However, he’s listed at 9-2 on the morning line, which would make him the 4th choice in the wagering. I’m comfortable taking that number on him, trying something new for the first time while also facing winners, knowing that even though he beat an above average maiden special weight field, he’s still taking a big step up the class ladder. If he’s bet down to the favorite or second choice, I wouldn’t be as willing to try him. Bedard (#8) is the backup for me in this race. He was third in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie when trying conventional dirt for the first time as a maiden. That effort was good enough to send him to Keeneland, where he was a gate to wire maiden special weight winner in his 8th career try. He continued to improve throughout his three year old season and his two races on actual dirt were by far his best. He was purchased for $210K at the Keeneland November Sale and he now runs for Brad Cox. While Cox has had a miserable start to this meet, he has about three or four horses on this card that look awfully tough. While he had everything his own way last time out, he has the foundation to help him adapt to other scenarios. Expect a strong effort for his new barn.

Race 2: 

Three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles in this maiden special weight contest. La Houligan (#8) broke outward and caused himself to be in last place for the first half of a one mile race at this level on opening weekend. He made a sustained bid while going 6 wide to get within less than two lengths of the winner, Amor Patriae. He finished well after all of that ground loss and galloped out ahead of the winner. He paired his first two Beyer Speed Figures and I think he’s sitting on bigger race in his third career start. He’s facing a McPeek runner and Cox runner that are both trying two turns for the first time in their second career starts. I think he has the advantage and should offer the right value in this race. I’ll use both Shepherd (#6) and Rapture (#11) as backups in this race. They both ran nice races in maiden races here and at Gulfstream. Shepherd closed well along the rail after breaking near the back of the field in a six furlong race here last month. A strong effort from him could be flattering for two of the runners I like in the 11th race this afternoon. McPeek has good numbers with second time starters and he’s pushing all of the right buttons at this meet. Brad Cox clearly wanted to run Rapture at two turns, otherwise, I’d imagine he’d be running at Gulfstream today in the seven furlong maiden special weight race early in the card there. Cox started this meet going 0-25, but he quietly won his last two races here and he has several live runners on this card. I don’t love the outside draw for this one in this race, but I respect the connections enough, especially on big days, to use him. 

Race 3:

A dozen runners are entered in this speed-filled N1X allowance race going six furlongs. Don’t sleep on Gunflash (#3) in this spot. Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez took over the training from Karl Broberg this fall for this Gun Runner horse. He was 5th in stakes company at Remington and then ran a huge race to win in allowance company. He came here and was flying late on a sealed course at this level to get second. Not many horses were making up the amount of ground he was on the course. He came back three weeks later and got a good setup, but he was behind the eight ball early on after some trouble in the first furlong or so. This barn continues to excel at this meet, scoring for the 8th time yesterday. There’s plenty of speed so if closers are able to get home, he should have every opportunity to full off the upset. Bob Baffert often sends another runner or two when he ships in for these big stakes races and he sends out March of Time (#4) to make his third career start this afternoon. He just missed on debut at Los Alamitos in December of 2023 when making his first career start. He was narrowly defeated by Scatify that day. He was on the sidelines for a little over a year before coming back in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita last month. He won in a stylish performance, posting a strong 94 Beyer Speed Figure. Clearly the expectations are high for this son of Justify, but this is a tough spot to face winners for the first time. Assuming there are no scratches, he’ll face more opponents in this race than he did in his first two starts combined. He’s likely going to press what figures to be an aggressive pace, so we’ll see what kind of mettle this one has. He’s worth covering, but he’s likely going to be too short of a price for me to be interested in using vertically. Big City (#9) is a little bit of an X-factor at this six furlong distance. He ran well in a mile race at this level last out, but he was clearly second best. He’s been sharp at seven furlongs, but he usually sets the tempo. We’ll see how much he’ll need to be used in the first half mile of this one. If Torres can get him to relax, I think he’ll have a big shot, but that is a big if. 

Race 4:

I thought Bishops Bay (#6) was a slam dunk a few weeks ago at this N2X level, however, he was nailed at the wire when trying to lead from start to finish on a sealed course. Perhaps Geroux was a little too aggressive on a course that was playing kindly to inside speed. Flavien Prat gets the assignment today and while he was kept out of the Winner’s Circle on his first trip here this season, I can’t see that happening today. I expect him to stalk the leaders in this race, similar to the trip he got when making his return to the races in Indiana two starts ago. He should be close to the best version of himself at this point in his career, and I think that version will beat his ten rivals. The backup for me in this spot is Yellow Brick (#8). There is a decent amount of early speed signed on and if the pace up front gets aggressive, he could be the one that is picking up the pieces late. He hasn’t been the best version of himself since joining Mike Maker’s barn. However, if he can come close to regaining his form from the spring, he could be dangerous. 

Race 5, The $150K King Cotton Stakes: 

Only six are entered in this six furlong stakes race. Perhaps the overnight stakes Thursday for the same condition, spread this group out. There were only five runners in the Ring the Bell Stakes which was won by Happy Is a Choice (#6), who nailed Gulfport (#4) on the wire. Durante (#3) was last of five in that race. Two weeks later, Oaklawn carded a states quality allowance race that was won by Banishing, who came back to dominate the Byerly Turk Overnight Stakes on Thursday. Tejano Twist (#1) was second in that allowance race and Edge to Edge (#5) also ran in that spot. The other runner is Miles Ahead (#2), who put up a big figure when winning the Thanksgiving Classic at the Fair Grounds. He followed the same pattern last year, and faltered in this race, which was contested on a sloppy course. However, he’s not the same horse outside of New Orleans, so I’m playing against him in this spot today. Gulfport absolutely walked on the lead in the Ring the Bell and still couldn’t hold off Happy Is a Choice. I would think Edge to Edge and at some level, Miles Ahead, could put a little more pressure on Gulfport in this race, which should set the table for either Happy Is a Choice or Tejano Twist. Tejano Twist has always been a pace dependent runner. He was 0-9 in 2024 though, despite banking nearly $300K in earnings. His last win came in the Ring the Bell Stakes on this oval in December of 2023. Hartman gave him a little bit of a breather over the summer and he has started to come back into his better form. Flavien Prat takes the mount today for the first time and I think he can time his ride to get up in time. I’m hoping the odds gap between him and Happy Is a Choice widens enough to offer a little more value. Happy Is a Choice has come back stronger after showing signs of improving at the 2023-24 meet here. He has won three of his last four starts, including a pair of stakes races in his last two. He is the horse to beat in this race. 

Race 6, The $145K General MacArthur Overnight Stakes: 

This overnight stakes race is for four year olds and up, going 1 ⅛ miles, while the $150K stakes right after this race is for four year olds and up going one mile. As a result, there is hardly any speed on paper in this race. Brad Cox has a runner in each and it looks like he feels Kinetic (#1) would prefer the longer the distance of this race. He could be a candidate to wind up setting what figures to be a measured tempo. Perhaps Sir Greylind (#3) will take the initiative, but he looked pretty good while stalking the pace when breaking the outside post in a N1X allowance race here three weeks ago. Kinetic was a good second behind his stablemate, Saudi Crown, who runs in the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream this afternoon. This lightly raced Street Sense colt has shown improvement in each of his five career starts. He broke his maiden then cleared the N1X and N2X conditions with three straight wins before trying stakes company at the Fair Grounds last month. He ran well that day and if he can duplicate that effort, he should be able to beat this group, which would likely pave the way for him to tackle graded stakes foes in his next start. I like the conservative path Cox has taken with him and I think he handles his business at a short price here. The backup play for me is Time for Trouble (#5). Like many of the longer priced runners in this spot, he figures to be a little bit pace compromised while making his first start since pulling up in the early stages of the Birdstone Stakes this summer at the Spa. He ran well in his two local starts last season, winning an allowance race and running third in the Grade 3 Essex Stakes in March. Coming off the break he might be a little more keen than usual, and while sometimes that might not be the best thing, that could work out in favor here. 

Race 7, The $150K Fifth Season Stakes:

This stakes race drew a very interesting nine horse field. There are some sprinters stretching out, along with a few four year olds that sniffed the Derby Trail last year. While I think both The Wine Steward (#5) and Liberal Arts (#8) are going to take money due to name recognition, I’m interested in two other four year olds that met in the Grade 3 Perryville at Keeneland in October. I think both Patriot Spirit (#4) and Brunacini (#9) are very interesting in this race. Brunacini scored the 28-1 upset in the Perryville Stakes, narrowly defeating the Grade 1 winner, Book’em Danno. Patriot Spirit pressed an aggressive pace and was battling hard until he was forced to check when Book’Em Danno squeezed through a narrow opening. He finished 6th, beaten four lengths in that race. While he wasn’t winning, I do think he would have been closer had his momentum not been thwarted. Patriot Spirit led from gate to wire when controlling the tempo in the Illinois Derby in the spring. He came back in the fall with a sprint win in allowance company at Colonial prior to the 6th place effort at Keeneland. He tried the Tapeta at Gulfstream in a $100K handicap when going 1 mile and 70 yards in his last start where he fell flat. I think he could be the pacesetter in this race and for a mile race, he might not have to work that hard in the first half mile. I like him getting back on the dirt and I think the distance of this race is within his range. Cristian Torres taking the reins feels like an encouraging sign. I think he can pull off the upset here. Brunacini was excellent in the Perryville, getting a perfect ride from Luan Machado. He was cutting back to one turn after running a very game 5th behind Kinetic in a 1 1/16 mile allowance race at Churchill that featured a wild finish. He was only a half of a length behind the winner in that race when he was trying two turns for the first time. After the Perryville, he faced older foes in the Cherokee Mile where he struggled at the break and was never really a factor. He goes back to two turns for the first time since his second career start. He drew the rail in that race and was forced to be forward while setting an aggressive pace. He dug in gamely and battled every step of the way. He showed that he can be very effective with an outside stalking trip, which he’s likely going to get while breaking from post nine in this race. That kind of trip has won a lot of races at this meet, so I see him as a strong alternative to the shorter priced runners here. I’ve been a fan of both The Wine Steward and Liberal Arts, so I’m going to use both as backups in this race. The Wine Steward showed a lot of heart in his three year old debut in the Grade 3 Lexington when he finished a hard fought second to Encino. He lost another close battle to Antiquarian in the Peter Pan before throwing in a clunker in the Belmont. It’s worth noting that his three best races were all narrow losses in graded stakes company, so while he is tenacious, I do worry that he’s come up short in each of these battles. Liberal Arts gets Flavien Prat in the saddle for Brad Cox. This feels like a race where we’re going to determine how high his ceiling really is. Since being moved to the Brad Cox barn, he’s paired his Beyer Figures in a pair of allowance races at Churchill and the Fair Grounds. His last race was an 11+ length romp, but it came in an off the turf race and I don’t know how much he really beat that day. On paper, this feels like a spot where he’d be capable of running a career best figure. I expect him to be favored when the gates open, but this is a big bump up in class and I think the lightly raced four year olds might have a higher ceiling. 

Race 8, The $145K Bugler Overnight Stakes: 

This overnight stakes race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs drew a field of 14, and since it’s carded as a stakes race,all 14 runners are able to compete. This is a wild race that will almost definitely come down to who is going to get the best trip. There’s a few four year old fillies in this race that are all coming into this race off career top Beyer Figures and I’m intrigued by all three. Harbor Springs (#7) ships in from New Orleans for Gregory Foley. She put it all together and ran a big race to clear the N1X condition at Churchill at the end of November. She was given a little extra time and missed a few weeks of training. She came back with a strong four furlong drill at the Fair Grounds last week, so I think she’ll be ready to go. She was floundering at longer distances, but since cutting back to shorter races, she’s been getting better with each start. I think Tanya Showers (#6) is a candidate to get the perfect trip in this race. She has some tactical speed that should set her up with a golden, second flight trip. She cleared the N2X allowance condition two starts ago and she ran third behind Haulin’ Ice, a filly that would likely be favored if she were in this race (she’s taking her shot in the Grade 2 Inside Information Stakes at Gulfstream this afternoon). She came back from a five month vacation and had three very nice races to end her three year old campaign. I think she’s well-spotted to start her four year old season off well. Makeup (#5) could be a sneaky longshot in this race for Steve Asmussen. I’m willing to look past the low Beyer Figure in the Orleans Stakes at Delta Downs last out. She was last in the early stages of that five furlong dash, but she moved well with an inside bid and just missed. While her best speed figures have come on the turf, she’s never finished off the board in three career starts on the dirt. This is a class test, but I think the distance is going to suit her well. 

Race 9, The $300K Martha Washington Stakes:

A field of six has been entered in the first local race to offer points toward entry into the Kentucky Oaks. Quietside (#1) wears the bulls-eye in this race. She has been facing the cream of the crop in this division up to this point. She was beaten by the two year old filly champion, Immersive, in both the Grade 1 Spinaway and the Grade 1 Alcibiades. She landed in the Grade 2 Golden Rod for her next start, where she was second behind Good Cheer. On one hand, she is getting class relief without running in a N1X allowance race, which everyone in the field with the exception of Her Laugh (#4), is eligible for. However, her figures have been flat and her two route races haven’t looked as good as her two one turn races. Her dam won all three career races at one turn. She might be good enough to win this race on class alone, but I do think there are going to be distance limitations. She’s a B line play for me, but I’m going in a different direction for a top pick. Her Laugh is the lone stakes winner in the bunch and she did so when going 1 mile and 70 yards at the Fair Grounds. However, she had an easy lead without any pace pressure in that race. Axel Concepcion might try for the same trip again with this group and if we’re seeing a track where speed is sticking around, I’ll reserve the right to come back to her. However, I’m not sold on if she really wants to go this far and if someone can pressure her, I think she’ll fold. I don’t think there is a standout in this field, so I’m going to roll the dice with the longest shot on the board, Legal Empress (#6). She is making her 5th career start and her third on dirt. All four of her career tries have come at two turns. She was second to Jenkin, who came back to win the Years End Stakes here at the end of December. This filly ran on the same card, breaking her maiden with a hard fought victory in the mud. She faces winners for the first time and after pairing her last Beyer Figures in dirt routes, she is eligible to take a step forward here. Horses sired by Tiz the Law are 12-45 (27%) in route races.  When you break that down, he’s 5-15 (33%) in dirt route races, 1-6 (17%) in synthetic route races, and 6-24 (25%) in turf route races. His horses are doing well as the races get longer. Her trainer, Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez is 0-2 in stakes races in his short time as a trainer, but he is 8-24 (33%) at this meet. I’ll use Take Charge Milady (#3) for Ken McPeek as the other A line play in this race. This barn has started off the meet hot and this filly was a four length winner in the mud with maiden special weight company three weeks ago. I do trust her ability to get the distance and she overcame trouble to finish second two starts ago in a restricted maiden claiming race (where she ran with the waiver). While she scored nicely with a favorable trip last time out, she can handle a variety of pace scenarios. She’s the other runner that I’m most comfortable with as these races get longer. 

Race 10, The $1,000,000 Grade 3 Southwest Stakes:

I did a full, horse by horse write up of this race as a part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby Series on the In The Money Blog. I’ve linked that article below. My quick and dirty thoughts on this race is that I see it setting up perfectly for Sandman (#6), who took a big step forward to win in N1X allowance company here in his last start. I like his chances a lot today. The backup for me in this spot is Patch Adams (#7) for Brad Cox. He was sensational when breaking his maiden last out. The added distance will be a new test for him, but I see him as the horse with the highest ceiling in this race. 

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2025-kentucky-derby-the-grade-3-southwest-stakes-by-eric-solomon/

Race 11:

I made case for Just Classic (#8) as a 23-1 first time starter in maiden special weight company last month and I’ll do the same thing again in this spot. He broke well in that race, but was steadied early, falling to last place. He made a strong middle move before leveling off while doing most of his running on the less desirable part of the sealed track. He’s a half to Necker Island who could certainly take a step forward in his second start. I like the rider switch to Emmanuel Esquivel. I think he has a big chance in this race. Dreaminblue (#3)was second in that race, which was won by Innovator, who was finally able to put it all together. This colt was dead game while cutting from to a six furlong race from two turn mile race here on opening weekend. The two sprint races stack up nicely with this group and while I do fear a bit of regression in this race, I still think he’s going to be a presence. I’m not crazy about the rail draw for the Fair Grounds shipper, Fanatical (#1), who had to deal with the same fate in New Orleans when he debuted. He was a distant third in a fast maiden race there on the day after Christmas. William Walden has strong numbers with maidens in their second starts, so if this Nyquist colt likes the course, he could be dangerous. 

Race 12:

The day ends with an overflow field in a state bred maiden special weight contest. Two Dollar Eddie (#5) is the morning line favorite off a strong effort at this level three weeks ago. I thought Burlsworth was a standout in that race and this Good Samaritan gelding gave him everything he had, losing by a mere ½ length. They were well clear of the third place finisher, Gods Country (#14), that day. That was a big time effort, which also means that he’s going to be a short price in this race. He ran a big race here in April and when he came back a month later at Delaware, he fell flat. While he is probably the most likely winner of this race, I need to see that he can put these bigger efforts together in back to back races with less time in between starts. Let’s try Bote (#3) as the top pick in this race. He caught a muddy track when facing two year old maiden special weight foes in his last start. He closed well to be second in that day, just missing over a track where horses in those outer lanes were not running the best races. He gets Lasix for his second start over the track and he should get a fast track to race over today. I think the pace scenario suits him as well. At or around his 8-1 morning line figure, I’d take a chance on him to beat his elders today. Tizmarkus (#13) needs a defection in order to participate, but his last workout was sharp. He’s worked well in the mornings for Chris Hartman, and while this barn doesn’t have the best recent track record with first time starters, I think this Tamarkuz colt is worth a shot today. On deeper tickets, I’d consider using Devils Fork (#2) for John Ortiz. His runners have struggled at this meet, but he has several live runners in what could be a big day for this barn. He ran 5th on debut here in December 2023, but something went amiss in his next start, which was delayed due to bad weather. He went to the sidelines for almost a year and returned three weeks ago with an even 5th place finish. I do think there is more there for this four year old gelding, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a step forward in this spot. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 37/180 (20.6%, $403.60, $2.24 ROI)

January 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 15/80 (18.9%, $168.00, $2.10 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)