Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 3 Southwest Stakes – By Eric Solomon

This race last year was the spot where Mystik Dan started to become a household name, as he romped home in the mud. This year, there’s a strong nine horse field (Render Judgment will be scratched, as per Ken McPeek).  The runner-up in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, Gaming, makes his 2025 debut here for Bob Baffert. He’ll face eight other rivals, including two runners coming off strong maiden wins. Post time for this Grade 3 contest is scheduled for 4:10 (CT).

Oaklawn Park, 1/25/25, Race 10: The Grade 3 Southwest Stakes Stakes:

42 Total Derby points (20/10/6/4/2)

1 – Gaming (2-1, ML): Bob Baffert frequently makes his presence felt in these Derby Points races at Oaklawn and he’ll make the runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile his first starter of the meet. This Game Winner colt was an impressive debut winner in August. He followed up that effort with a win in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. Baffert opted to skip the American Pharoah and wait to run this one back at Del Mar for the Breeders’ Cup. He finished second that day, earning a career top Beyer Speed Figure, but at any point in the race, he never looked like he was going to pass his stablemate, who was afforded the opportunity to set a slow pace when the best speed horse in the race blew the break. Baffert ran him back in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and while that track can be quirky, I didn’t like his effort in that race at all. I’m still not convinced that this colt is going to run his best races at two turns, and while he has rail position, he’s going to have to deal with a decent amount from the outside stalls. I don’t think this is the best spot for him and being a Baffert horse, I’d be surprised if his odds didn’t dip below his 2-1 morning line. I think this is a good spot to try to beat this one. 

2 – Publisher (12-1 ML): He’s one of two maidens in this field and he’s coming off a strong effort to be second to American Promise in maiden special weight company on this course last month. His three efforts prior to that start were okay in Kentucky, but from a speed figure standpoint, that last race came out of nowhere. The maiden race last month came on a muddy and sealed course and while he battled gamely, he was never getting to the winner. While he was 19+ lengths in front of the next runner, that race did fall apart on the back end. The figure is strong, but moving up in class off that effort seems to be overly aggressive. I would have preferred to see him try to break his maiden before dipping his toes in these waters. He’s not for me in this race. 

3 – Monet’s Magic (15-1 ML): He pulled off the 24-1 upset when breaking his maiden at Churchill in a maiden special weight race at this distance at the end of November. That was his 5th career start and he held on gamely after collaring the pacesetters at the top of the stretch. He moved into N1X allowance company for his local debut last month and he came up the rail with a strong late move to get the score. That’s worth noting because the inside lanes on that afternoon were definitely better than the outer ones. This horse had all the momentum going into the turn, but instead of tipping him out four wide, which has been a winning move on a fast track for the majority of this meet, Torres cornered tightly along the rail, which was the difference making move that day. Torres opted to ride Sandman for Mark Casse, so Ben Colebrook will hand the reins over to Francisco Arrieta. He has been improving, so hitting the board in this race is not an impossible task. 

4 – Tiztastic (10-1 ML): The second runner from the Asmussen barn was last seen racing in Kentucky where he earned a few Derby Points for his second place finish in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes and his third place finish in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Both of those races were won by runaway winners and while he earned a respectable paycheck for those races, he was never a threat to win. Both of his career wins came in a 10 day span on the turf at Kentucky Downs, which as a result, makes him the leading money earner in this field by over $220K. While his speed figures are improving, he hasn’t shown the same burst on the dirt that he showed on the grass. He paired his Beyers in his first two dirt routes, so he could be a candidate to move forward. I think he has a chance to finish in the money here, but I haven’t seen enough on the track to think of him as a win candidate. 

5 – Render Judgement (SCR): As per trainer Ken McPeek, he will defect from this race due to a foot issue.

6 – Sandman (5-1 ML): Much like Monet’s Magic, he shipped here from Kentucky to score in a N1X allowance race in his last start. He broke his maiden for Mark Casse in his second career start, beating both Innovator and Aviator Gui in a seven furlong maiden special weight contest at the Spa. That effort was good enough for him to roll the dice in both the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes and the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes. He finished 5th in the Iroquois, but he showed some improvement when finishing 3rd in the Street Sense, but he was still five lengths behind the winner. Instead of going for the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club, Casse wisely opted to run him in an allowance race here in December. Cristian Torres got on for the first time and gave him a strong ride to get up to win that one mile race going away. The mile races at Oaklawn end at the 1/16 pole, so the longer stretch in this race should prove to be to his liking. He should have a lively pace in front of him and I think he’ll be finishing the fastest in this race. I think he has a huge chance in this spot today. 

7 – Patch Adams (5-2 ML): This son of Into Mischief makes his third career start today, which is  his first against winners and his first at two turns. He was put squarely on a lot of peoples’ radars when he crushed a maiden field at Churchill on the second Stars of Tomorrow card there in November. He stopped in the clock in a very fast 1:20:3 that day, and while the track was playing a little fast for that time of year, that is a serious final clocking. Brad Cox has great numbers going from sprints to routes, winning 38% of the time with that move over the last year. However, the elephant in the room here is how poorly his runners are faring at this current meet. Going into the week, Cox is 0-25 with only 8 of his 25 runners hitting the board. While he’s clearly struggling here, that isn’t the case at the Fair Grounds, where he’s winning 33% of his races, including a win with Disco Time in the Grade 3 Lecomte last weekend. Handicappers haven’t started to back off Cox at Oaklawn and his horses aren’t going off at the deflated odds that they tend to do in other locales. I do think Gaming is going to take the bulk of the money, so if this one’s odds creep up, I’d be more inclined to use him more prominently. I see him having the highest ceiling in the field.

8 – American Promise (6-1 ML): This one caught my eye when he broke his maiden last month in the last race of the year in Arkansas. He finished 1 ½ lengths better than Publisher, and 21 lengths better than the third place finisher that day. However, that was the same day that Monet’s Magic won with a rail rally. He drew the rail that day and apprentice Tyler Bacon was smart to put him on the lead in order to maintain his spot on the inside part of the track, which seemed to be the place to be that afternoon. He definitely was improving since running in two turn races in his prior two starts before that breakthrough performance. A lot of D. Wayne Lukas’ runners over the last few years have followed a similar pattern where they just keep getting better with more races. While I think this is a horse that could make some noise in the three year old division here, I’m not sure this is a great spot for him. He’s going to have to deal with speed to his inside and outside. The track is likely going to be fast, so he’s also going to have to prove he can run these big races when the course is not sealed. From a value standpoint, he’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line off that big effort. However, Monet’s Magic and Render Judgment beat him two and three starts back. Both of those runners were listed at 15-1 on the morning line. While neither of them has run a figure close to his last figure, I do think he might be priced too low for me to get involved today. I think he’s a horse that might bounce a bit in this race today, but I think he could be sneaky if Lukas runs him back in the Rebel next month. It wouldn’t be a shock to me if he won, but I think he’s vulnerable today.

9 – Bon Temps (30-1 ML): The other maiden runs for D. Wayne Lukas and Calumet Farm. He’s never finished in the money in three starts, but he has made improvements. He finished 4th beaten five lengths in the Smarty Jones when going off at 28-1 in that six horse field. That was his first start at two turns, so there’s reason to believe that he could take another step forward in his 4th career start. I wouldn’t hate having him in the back end of a few trifectas and superfectas in this race, but looking where he is compared to some of the other runners, that would seem to be the ceiling for him today.

10 – Speed King (15-1 ML): The Remington Springboard Mile typically doesn’t have the reputation of a serious Derby Prep Race, however, the winner of that race, Coal Battle, came back to easily score in the Smarty Jones here earlier in the month. This Volatile colt was a narrow second in that race, which was his second career start. He was impressive debut winner for Ron Moquett, which is notable, because his runners aren’t typically fully cranked to win on debut. He followed that effort up with a strong performance on the front end when facing a full field in Oklahoma. He did a lot of the dirty work while battling on the lead, only to be caught in the final strides by Coal Battle. He has a serious work over this course, recording the fastest four furlong time of 315 workers last Saturday. It seems that the play is going to be to shoot for the lead with him. However, he is going to have to work to get it because Gaming, Patch Adams, and American Promise are likely going to be hunting for the same spot. From a pedigree standpoint, I’m not sure how much longer than a mile he’s going to want to go. This is another runner that has a nice future in front of him, but I’m not sure this is the best spot for him today.

The verdict: 6-7-3

I like Sandman (#6) a lot in this race today. He ran respectable races in graded stakes company, but he needed a bit of class relief to clear the N1X condition. He ran impressively over this course to beat a quality field while posting a strong Beyer Speed Figure. I think he gets a great setup today as there are four runners that likely will have their sights set on making the lead. Mark Casse hasn’t had a presence at Oaklawn in recent years, but he’s done well with a small string of horses that he’s brought to winter in Arkansas. Cristian Torres seemingly had a few different options, so the fact that he wound on this colt is telling. I think he gets a great set up in this race and I believe he can pull off a mild upset.

I see Patch Adams (#7) having the highest ceiling in this field. He was ultra-impressive when breaking his maiden in a seven furlong sprint at Churchill Downs in November when he made his most recent start. That effort definitely started to generate some buzz around this Into Mischief colt leading up to his next start. Flavien Prat was kept out of the Winner’s Circle in his first trip to Hot Springs during this meet. More notable is the fact that Brad Cox has not made a visit to the Winner’s Circle here at Oaklawn this season. This should be a demanding test for this one, but I do think he’s drawn better than some of his rivals that might want to also show some early speed. He has to answer the two-turn question today, a test that several of his rivals have already passed. While he might be vulnerable in this race, I do see him as the runner with the highest overall ceiling. 

I do think there’s a good chance that one of the longer prices rounds out the trifecta here. While there are several candidates, I’ll lean to Monet’s Magic (#3) to be that horse. He’s scored twice in a row, including an off the pace win in the mud in allowance company in his most recent start. He should save ground going into the first turn and he should have some pace to close into. I think Sandman is faster, but a minor award is not out of the question for this longshot.

I’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race in this space, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.