After a rain-soaked Saturday at Oaklawn where they were only able to run five of the ten scheduled races, they’re back with a nine race card for Sunday. The track should be drying out as the day goes on, but with the amount of rain that fell yesterday, I wouldn’t be surprised if that course was labeled muddy at the start of the day. The featured race today is a conditioned allowance contest, going off as the 8th race of the day. Remember that there’s a holiday Monday card tomorrow. First post this afternoon is the usual 12:30 (CT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5,11,12 | DBL, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 |
| 3 | 8 | 2,7,8 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 7,10 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 5 | 8 | 8 | 10,11 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK5 |
| 6 | 8 | 2,5,8 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 7 | 3 | 3 | 1,6 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 8 | 10 | 10 | 4 | DBL | |
| 9 | 3 | 3,4 | 12 |
Race 1:
Fillies and mares will start the day in a $12,500 maiden claiming race going six furlongs. Arkansas bred runners will run with a $20K claiming tag at this level. Oddly enough, 11 of the 12 runners in this field are Arkansas breds, whereas only Lilly Mae (#6) is running with the $12,500 tag. I’m going to try Hamazimaux (#5) on top in the opener. She’s been slow out of the gate in his first two career starts, which has been less than ideal for her prospects of winning a race. She improved in her second try last out, gaining ground to get into 6th, beaten six lengths. This is not a very good field for the condition and there appears to be some cheap speed which could help her cause. Ranch Rebel (#11) and Mazarn (#12) represent some type of upside in this listless race. They are both making their second career starts in this spot. I’ll give the slight preference to Mazarn, as she faced a better group in her debut. This is a deep drop, but it’s likely warranted. Ranch Rebel is the likely leader in this race when they bend for home.She sprinted to an early lead before falling apart late. The track may be speed favoring as it begins drying out from the torrential rains yesterday, so that would certainly help her cause.
Race 2:
Open $12,500-$10,000 claimers will sprint six furlongs in this race. Dutch Mills (#9) is the play for me in this race. He was away slowly when making his first start in three months here in January. He was facing a stronger starter allowance field that day. He was overmatched at Keeneland in his previous start there when he was also a little slow to break from the gate. He’s drawn the outside post for this race, which I think could be helpful. He ran very well in similar races last year as a three year old. He broke his maiden here and upon leaving Arkansas at the end of the meet, he had a very productive summer in the Mid-Atlantic region. Compton has good numbers second of this kind of layoff, and I think this Runhappy colt fits very well with this field. Ram (#7) drops back into claiming company after picking up some minor awards in starter allowance company. He’s typically a horse that is better suited for the bottom part of the vertical exotics as he has five times more second and third place finishes than wins. Two of his three career wins have come on this oval though and a wet track wouldn’t be an issue should be there leftover moisture in the racing surface. On one hand, the wight year old gelding, Summer Splash (#4) fits well with this field. He’s only had 18 career starts, but eight of them were victories. He’s been popular at the claim box, being claimed seven times in his career. Soundness has clearly been an issue for him, so the drop to the $12,500 level after being claimed for $25,000 in his last start is not ideal. I’m also not crazy about the gap in races, seeing as how he’s been sidelined since November. This is not a great group, so if he’s right, he does have an advantage over his rivals. However there are some red flags, so I’m not looking to take a short price on him. He’s a deeper saver for me in this race.
Race 3:
Here’s another $12,500 maiden claiming race where Arkansas breds are able to run with a $20,000 tag. This one is for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles. Audax Minor (#8) is the play for me in this spot. He ran his usual race last time out when trying the dirt here against a better field of maiden claimers. He drops in class while facing older runners for the first time today. Norman McKnight has had a respectable so far, winning five times, and I tend to like playing his Canadian shippers in their second start here, especially if they show they don’t hate the dirt track. The class relief should help his cause today. Sir Exton (#2) led until falling apart late at this level last time out. On paper, there appears to be less pace pressure today, so I think Torres might try the same tactics again. From a speed figure standpoint, his last race was one of the better races at this level of the meet, so even though he was struggling at the end of that one, I do think that he was facing some tougher foes. I also think the track could be a little more inside speed friendly today, which might help him get home in the stretch. Royal Court (#7) has had 16 cracks at breaking his maiden, so there is a level of caution I’ll take with him. He was rank last time out when making his first local start two weeks ago. Alberto Pusac had a hard time getting him to settle off the leaders that day. Once he was able to get him moving, he closed with a wide move to get into 4th. The winner pulled away with authority in that race, going gate to wire, but he was right in the mix for the minors. With Pusac getting the return call, I suspect he figured something out with this six year old gelding. He’s been close before and this is not the strongest field. He may turn in a better performance today.
Race 4:
The parade of lower level claiming races continues as we have the first of two consecutive beaten $12,500 claiming races for fillies and mares going six furlongs. Both divisions are for horses that either have never won three times or have not won a race in six months. Both races also drew overflow fields of 13. The two favorites in this race are horses taking deep drops in class. Chandana (#7) hasn’t hit the board since losing in a photo in the Poinsettia Stakes here at the end of December in 2023. She was struggling while facing a steady diet of optional claiming/N2X types here and in Kentucky. She finished 5th last out with open $30K-$25K claimers in the mud here in her most recent start. Her last race was her best start in a while, and it would likely put her right there with this group. David Jacobson sends out Sequin Lady (#10) after a dull effort in starter allowance company in her latest try. She has rebounded nicely from poor efforts in the past. She just missed in a $32K claiming race at Churchill after faltering in her previous start. She’s earned Beyer Speed Figures of 73 or higher in seven of her last nine starts on dirt, which would be higher than the par for this race. She hasn’t run her best races on off tracks, so I’d hesitate just a little if the track is still looking wet. However, these are the two that make the most sense in this race.
Race 5:
The second division of this beaten $12,500 claiming race for fillies and mares is also the race that ends the Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 wagers and begins the Late Pick-5. I like Opposite the Crowd (#8) the best in this spot. She was claimed by John Haran in December and, as he tends to do, he spotted her very aggressively in that first race off the claim. She was entered in a $35K-$30K N3L claiming race after being claimed for $10K when she finished a game second in the mud when making her first start since August. She’s back at a more manageable class level and she’s making her third start off the layoff. Haran has only won with 8% of his runners at this meet, but he’s done when bringing his horses back down to earth. She was excellent when clearing the N1X allowance condition in Indiana in August and if she can run back to that effort, she’s going to be in the Winner’s Circle today. Backed by Gold (#10) is another Jacobson class dropper that is live at this level. She finished off the board in her first two local races, both of which came in starter allowance company. Her last win came at the Spa this summer with open $12,500 claimers on August 14th, meaning that she just became eligible for this condition yesterday. Her form has been up and down, but I do love trainers working the condition book to their advantage. She’s Inthearmynow (#11) is the morning line favorite after a monstrous front-running effort on a muddy course against a weaker group at the Fair Grounds. Wayne Catalano has not started a horse at this meet this year, but him bringing this mare here tells me that he was struggling to find a race for her in New Orleans. On a fast track, she would be a definite play against for me, but I’m putting her on the B line in this spot in the event that she’s getting another muddy course. Her last race was her first on an off track and she looked like a different animal. I do think she could be a bounce candidate, and on a fast track, I’ll consider her as just that. However, if it’s an off track, I’ll want to back up with her for protection against another big effort. If I wind up downgrading that one, the Canadian shipper, Legally Charitable (#3) is one to think about. After a dull debut, she was competitive in her last five starts at Woodbine last year. She makes her first start on the dirt today, which is an absolute question mark. Her speed figures did keep improving though last year. Her sire did his best work on synthetic and this is the first foal to make it to the track from this unraced mare. She’s one to watch when warming up over the track, but I’d probably need better odds than her 8-1 morning line to get on board.
Race 6:
The Late Pick-4 begins with a $35K-$30K maiden claiming race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. I’m not in love with the shorter prices in this race, so I’m going to roll the dice with Primo Canary (#8). Chris Hartman drops him in class and adds blinkers for his third career start. Tyler Bacon is going to be tasked with getting him out of the gate in good order because that has been a struggle. He’s faced significantly better fields in his first two starts. So the drop in class feels warranted here. He won’t have to improve much to beat this field, so even if his odds dip a little bit below his 12-1 morning line, I would still use him. There are some things to like with We Need a Favor (#5). He’s making his third start off the layoff and his first career start at two turns. He’s worked well and has been gelded since his last start, where he finished 5th, beaten just less than four lengths. He gets a significant rider upgrade to Julien Leparoux. While dam’s first two runners have been better at one turn, his full brother does have a two turn win on his resume.Down the Islands (#2) ran his best career race when facing similar company on a muddy course here two starts ago. He tired last time after battling for the early lead at this same condition. If speed is playing well, he has a good shot. If front-runners are backing up, I’d likely downgrade him.
Race 7:
$50K N2L claimers will sprint six furlongs here. I’m a little perplexed by the morning line in this race because 10-1 on Miracle Worker (#3) seems really high. If that’s the way the public sees it, sign me up, but the reality is that I’d be comfortable playing him at 3-1 in this race. He was overmatched in allowance company in his last two starts. He earned the right to be in those races after a big effort three back at long odds at Churchill. He drops in for a tag today for the first time since narrowly losing in an $80K N2L claiming race in September at Churchill. He was five lengths better than Parkway (#4) that day, who is listed at 4-1 in the morning line and hasn’t done much since that race. He broke his maiden on this oval and this feels like a good spot to get right. Northern Chill (#1) was a part of one of my biggest hits last season when he broke his maiden in a $50K maiden claiming race at odds of 19-1. If the track is still wet and sealed, I’m not loving him in this race. He is better on a fast track and he should be able to control the tempo. If speed is playing well, he’s another one that I’d upgrade on this card. When you draw a line through the synthetic race last out and the turf race at Kentucky Downs this summer, Sweet as Sin (#6) is progressing nicely on the dirt. He was a game third with $80K N2L claimers two starts ago. He broke through in maiden allowance company in Indiana three starts back. His Turfway race was an aberration last out, so getting back to the dirt feels like the right move for this Candy Ride colt here.
Race 8:
This conditioned allowance race for four year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles is the featured race on the program today. This is essentially an optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance race since the other condition is horses that never won three times. Horses that have cleared the N2X conditioned elsewhere, such as Woodcourt (#1) are still eligible to run without the tag as long as they have won less than $24K when doing so. Sir Greylind (#10) is the one to beat in this race. He was a game second in the General McArthur Overnight Stakes on the Southwest undercard last month. He’s not likely ready for a race like the Razorback Handicap next week, so this allowance feels like the perfect bridge to a one of three races that feel like logical landing points next month. A big effort here puts him into consideration for the Essex Handicap, however the Oaklawn Mile or the American Pharoah Overnight Stakes would also be on the table, both of which come on the Arkansas Derby undercard. He has been very good in three starts at this meet and he is trending in the right direction. He feels like he is the one to beat in this race. Mackman (#4) is the logical backup in this race. He’s not the most consistent, but he has races on his resume that are good enough to win this race. The issue for me is that his biggest Beyer Speed Figures have come in races where he was defeated. He broke his maiden on this course last year and he’s still very competitive.
Race 9:
The day ends with state bred $20K N2L claimers going six furlongs. Sweet Fantasy (#3) is the biggest class dropper in the field. Mark Casse brought him here, knowing that if the open company didn’t work out, there were going to be state bred races that would be useful spots for him. He broke his maiden in an off the turf mile race for restricted maiden special weight types at Saratoga this summer. That effort was good enough to bring him to Monmouth for the Sapling Stakes, where he went off at 7-2. He didn’t run a step that day and went to the sidelines until he showed up in an optional claiming/starter allowance race here last month. He ran sixth, getting tired late. He wasn’t terrible that day, but he was likely in too deep. He gets considerable class relief and shows up in a field where he’s a better fit. Classic Cinema (#4) might be the main danger. He’s all speed, which may not be a terrible thing on this course today. He broke his maiden here at the beginning of December. He wasn’t terrible in state bred starter allowance company last time out, but this feels like a more appropriate spot for him. Cristian Torres retaining the mount only helps his chances. On deeper tickets, I’d consider Clear Echo (#12). He’s second off the layoff, so if he follows last year’s form cycle, he might need one more start before we see his best effort. However, he was moving well late after a tardy beginning last out. His lone win came on the front end, but his last race gave me hope that he can be effective when stalking the pace.
2024-25 Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 56/275 (20.4%, $524.20, $1.91 ROI)
February 2025 Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 10/63 (15.9%, $65.20, $1.03 ROI)
Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)
