Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 2/23/25 – By Eric Solomon

Rebel Day is here, albeit a day later than originally planned. This is the best card of the meet thus far, with 12 competitive races with large fields all afternoon. Racing was cancelled yesterday as Mother Nature continues to make life difficult for the track maintenance crew at Oaklawn. The Grade 3 Honeybee drew a field of 13 three year old fillies, looking to punch their ticket to the Kentucky Oaks. 14 are entered in both the Grade 3 Razorback and the Grade 2 Rebel. There’s an additional Pick-5 offered, starting in Race 5, and an additional Pick-4 starting in Race 6. First post is at 12:00 (CT). Remember, there’s a nice 10 race card tomorrow afternoon, highlighted by a pair of stakes races.

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Three year olds start the day in a maiden special weight contest going 1 1/16 miles. One important note going into this race; Jose Camejo cross-entered Dorteo (#7) in a maiden race yesterday. He was scratched from that race, likely in favor of this one. Camejo is typically based in Louisiana, but he has not started a horse at Oaklawn in the last five years. He clearly has a strong opinion of this colt, as he opted to debut him in the Sugar Bowl Stakes, where he ran a game second, beaten by only a length. He came back to run in a maiden special weight contest at this distance in New Orleans last month. He hit the front but was a little green in the stretch when he was passed by Hypnus, who ran a huge race on debut for Ken McPeek. He’s racing back in the Rebel Stakes later on today, so a win by this colt would be flattering to that one. The purse for this maiden special weight race is $50K greater than the maiden special weight races at the Fair Grounds, and $16K better than the Gulfstream race he opted out of (where he was the 8-5 morning line favorite). I don’t see any real studs in this field, so I believe he has a great chance to graduate today. Clever Again (#3) is the wildcard in this one for Steve Asmussen. He was a $500K purchase that was ready to roll in April at Keeneland. He just missed to a Wesley Ward firster that day who went on to dominate a turf sprint stakes race at Monmouth in her next start. This one was set to run at the Spa this summer before he came up injured prior to a race in July. He’s been working well in mornings at the Fair Grounds, and while he should be able to get this distance, I do think it’s asking a lot to try to win at this distance in his second try off a lengthy layoff. I still prefer him to either of the Cox runners in this race though. 

Race 2: 

Older runners will sprint six furlongs in this N1X allowance race. I’m interested in Red State (#11) for Mike Maker in this race. This City of Light colt was a solid debut winner at Keeneland this spring when going 6 ½ furlongs. He faced winners for the first time at Churchill a month later and faltered against a good field in the slop. He went to the sidelines after that race, so I think there were some excuses. He came back in a five furlong turf sprint at Gulfstream where he ran a decent 4th. I see him as a horse that can move forward in this race. I did see that they cross-entered him in an allowance race at Turfway on Saturday 3/1. He is on the AE list though in that spot. He’s based in Kentucky where he last worked out, so there’s a chance that he might opt out of this one. However, if he’s here, I think he’s a live longshot. Rowdy Riot (#3) is coming out of a pair of tough N2L allowance races where he finished third in both. He ran into a buzzsaw two back when Wendelssohn ran a huge race. He was four wide while pressing a strong pace last time, finishing third. His figures have flatlined a bit, but I do think he could sit a more favorable trip today. B Sudd (#5) has a pair of strong efforts at this meet with decent starter allowance fields. He’s had several close calls at this level in the past, which has been his M.O. over the last few seasons. He was very sharp in his most recent workout though and he’s in the most consistent form of his career. I don’t want too short of a price because of his lack of wins, but I do think he could sit a golden trip.

Race 3:

Older fillies and mares get their turn to sprint six furlongs in N1X allowance company. All eyes should be on Ashburn Alley (#1) in this race. She was awesome when making her first start in 15 months here in January. She drew the outside post and sat in the middle of the pack before uncorking a powerful five wide rally where she came up a nostril short. If she replicates that effort, she’ll be in the Winner’s Circle, but she’s only made two career starts and now she’s going to face a full field while having every other runner break to her inside. She isn’t the fastest runner from the gate, so it’s all going to be about what kind of trip she gets. I’m going to use her, but I’m going to make Queen’s Martini (#2) and Flavien Prat the top pick in this race. She ran into some traffic after breaking poorly in the mud in her last start. She was very good at Churchill two starts ago though when finishing a close up third in a N2X allowance race. She’s eligible for this condition here because of the purse structure at Horseshoe Indianapolis, which is where she cleared this condition. I think we’ll see a much better effort from her in a race where there is a lot of early speed. 

Race 4, The $150K Carousel Stakes:

It looks like D. Wayne Lukas has figured some things out with Lady Moscato (#8), who was very impressive when winning the Bugler Overnight Stakes here last month. She stalked the pace from her outside draw and powered home as a much the best winner. All three of her career wins have come on this oval at this distance. She paired her first two Beyer Figures of the meet so I could see this four year old Quality Road filly taking another step forward in this race. I see her as the one to beat. Keith Asmussen rode her to victory that day and he’s back in the saddle today. He also rode Benedetta (#1) to victory in the American Beauty Stakes three weeks ago for his father. Flavien Prat will get the pickup mount on this filly who has been red hot coming into this race. She has four straight wins, two of which have been in stakes races. The final time for the American Beauty came back very slow. Figures at Oaklawn are typically easier to make because about 95% of their races are run at the same three distances. I do trust the figure and I’m not concerned that she can’t rebound. I am more concerned about the rail draw because I do think others have more natural early speed.

Race 5:

I think it’s fair to say that all eyes are going to be on Cornucopian (#7) for Bob Baffert in this six furlong maiden special weight race. Nine parties are a part of the ownership group that paid $1.1 million for this Into Mischief colt. The dam has been a strong producer, with her most notable runner being the multiple Grade 1 winning mare, Guarana. Two of her other foals were stakes winners and both Guarana and Magic Dance were dominating debut winners. The works in the morning  are suggesting that he has some talent to back up his looks and his pedigree. Baffert’s numbers are strong with first time starters, so assuming that he handles the ship to Arkansas well, I think he has a big chance in this race. Max Got Excited (#10) faltered two back when trying a mile race, but he put up a big effort when sprinting on a fast dirt track for the first time in his career last time out. He finished four lengths behind Dreaminblue, who ran huge that day. He’s another runner that we’ll see later on in the Rebel Stakes, so a strong performance from this gelding would be flattering. There are reasons to believe that he can back up his last effort. Oy Gevald (#1)ran well in his debut this summer at Ellis when finishing close second to Normandy Coast. That one went to the sidelines after that victory, but he came back a winner in allowance company in New Orleans. James DiVito originally opted to try to bring him back in a two turn maiden special weight race, but I think this spot makes more sense, in spite of potentially running into a debuting Baffert beast, 

Race 6:

Four year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles in this N1X allowance test. Lambeth (#7) was a little flat when running at this level last month for Joe Sharp. He was three wide for the better part of that race and the trio that finished ahead of him are solid runners. Gewurztraminer cleared this condition last week after running into a buzzsaw two back when Baddest Good Boy was excellent to open the Southwest card. Sir Greylind was the winner of that race and he came within a half length of winning at the N2X level while trying to overcome a poor start. Jose Ortiz is winning a ton of races while based at the Fair Grounds this winter. He rode Imperial Gun (#9) for Asmussen over there last time out. That one didn’t run a step in his first step off the layoff. He opts to ride this son of Arrogate for Joe Sharp while making his first trip to Arkansas this season. I think this is another live mount for him on this card. I loved Nullify (#6) in starter allowance company a few weeks ago and he did not let me down scoring in a determined fashion. He will move up in class today for D. Wayne Lukas, but I do think he’s ready. After struggling early on in his career, the lightbulb seemed to go off at the back end of the 23-24 meet here. He was away from April to January, but he appeared to pick up right where he left off, running a credible effort in a starter allowance sprint. He scored last time when moving back to two turns, which is what he wants to do. On deeper tickets, don’t be surprised to see an improved effort from Touch of Glam (#5). This Argentinian bred gelding makes his 4th career start today for Ken McPeek. He broke his maiden in an off the turf maiden special weight going 1 ⅛ miles at the Fair Grounds two starts back. He was 34-1 last time out when facing N1X company on the dirt there. The winner drew off for fun, but he was in a three horse tussle for third, which he took the worst of. While this race lacks a committed front-runner, there is a decent amount of tactical speed which could keep the tempo honest enough in this race. If closers are getting home today, don’t be surprised if Hernandez has him flying down the crown of the track in the final furlong. 

Race 7:

A field of 10 will sprint six furlongs in this N2X allowance race. Attache (#3) is the morning line favorite, and he’s fine, but I’m not sure he’s one I want at 2-1. He definitely lost his best chance to win at this level last out at the break, and he ran on well enough to be 4th. He’s consistent, but I think he tends to run his best races at Churchill. The runner-up in the Arkansas Derby, Just Steel (#2) makes his first start since finishing 5th in the Preakness. He broke his maiden at this distance at Saratoga and he was a stakes winner last fall going 6 ½ furlongs. After that race, his efforts were focused on the two turn races to get him into the Derby. The Triple Crown races didn’t go his way, so it’s nice to see him rebooting his career today. However, he’s likely to go off at short odds and I suspect he’s going to need this race. I’ll take a stab and use Nasty Habit (#4) on top in this race. He met a tough field in N3L allowance company three weeks ago and Wendelssohn ran that field off their feet while dropping back into allowance company. He ran strong races as a five year old, winning a contentious N1X allowance race at Pimlico on Preakness Day last year. He went to the sidelines and needed his last race, which was his first over this track. He got going late that day, so I think we might see a better effort from him in this race. I expect him to be overlooked, and even if we don’t get the 20-1 morning line price, I think he offers decent value at 10-1 or better in this race. Runaway Jack (#9) is another six year old gelding making his second start off the layoff at this level today. I wasn’t sure what to expect from him last month when he made his first start in over a year. He ran on well in the later stages of that race to get into third, while going off at 18-1. Despite never winning here, he has run well in his five starts on this course. He looks like he’s close to picking up where he left off. Eglise (#7) was flying under the radar in a N1X allowance sprint last month which he won at 8-1 odds. Chris Hartman gave Alberto Pusac the mount that day and he rewards him with giving him another chance at this level on one of the biggest days of the year at Oaklawn. The dam was a multiple graded stakes winner in two turn races on the dirt, but this four year old gelding might be more effective in sprint races. 

Race 8, The $145K Trivista Overnight Stakes:

The first of four straight stakes races at the same 1 1/16 mile distance, is an overnight stakes for fillies and mares. I think the two runners that are sharpest on paper are starting from the outside stalls. Amber Cascade (#10) and In Just My Heels (#11) have been on point lately. Both are moving up in class to this level, but both appear to be ready for that challenge. I’m using both on the A line, but the outside posts tell me things will need to break their way to score. Meanwhile, I think there’s solid case to made for Bru Na Bonnie (#2) and Irad Ortiz. When you draw a line through her turf efforts and her one turn sprint at seven furlongs when making her first start off a layoff, she has a nice progression of races. She cleared the N3X allowance condition at Keeneland, which is typically a stakes quality race. She came back in a small stakes race at the Fair Grounds and she didn’t fire her best shot. I think her inside draw should allow her to save ground while getting to run the kind of race that she wants to run, sitting chilly in the second flight. She gets a world class jockey to ride her in this race and I think she might have an easier path to the Winner’s Circle than the two outside runners. In Just My Heels has been really good lately. Since faltering in the Iowa Oaks in July, she has a very nice stretch of five races where her only loss came on a muddy course here in December. She’s better on a fast track and she can win races in a variety of ways. Bejarano will have options with her. Amber Cascade is likely to be a little farther off the pace, depending on how the break works out. She’s another mare that is on a nice roll, especially when you draw a line through her race on a sloppy track. She was an easy winner in a N2X allowance race at the Fair Grounds last month, so this overnight stakes feels like the right next step. 

Race 9, The Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes:

A field of 13 is entered in this race for three year old fillies, headed by the undefeated winner of the Demoiselle Stakes, Muhimma (#1) for Brad Cox. She drew the rail that day at Aqueduct  when facing nine rivals and she went to the front and never looked back. While Look Forward (#9) has some sprinter speed and she could force the issue early, I think Muhimma holds all the cards in this one. I think she’s going to be out in front of the traffic and her class will get home. This feels like the spot in this Pick-5 where you can get skinny, especially with a pair of 14 horse races behind this one. The clear backup is the dominant winner of the Martha Washington Stakes, Take Charge Milady (#6). This will be her true class test. She was much the best when facing four rivals last time out. She was facing winners for the first time that day after a strong maiden performance two back. She continues to work well in the morning for McPeek, who seems to get the most out of his runners with modest pedigrees. I think the tactical advantage belongs to Muhimma, but if the favorite goes down, this is the horse that I think will do it. 

Race 10, The Grade 3 Razorback Handicap:

A full field of 14 is entered in this Grade 3 contest. First Mission (#3) came to town last year after a disappointing effort in the Pegasus World Cup. He was an easy winner of the Essex Handicap and he used that race to springboard him to a dominating win in the Alysheba Stakes at Churchill on Kentucky Oaks Day. He faltered as the favorite in the Stephen Foster though and he was a little flat in the Whitney. Cox gave him the rest of the year off and now he reboots to start his five year old season. Cox has great numbers off this type of layoff and this horse feels like he has a tactical and a class advantage over the majority of this field. I think he’ll revert back to his winning ways here. Skinner (#5) sniffed the Derby Trail in 2023 when he was campaigned by John Shirreffs. He ran okay in other stakes races later in the year, but did win another race after breaking his maiden. He didn’t have much of a four year old season, returning to the races at Del Mar in November last year. After running second in his comeback race, he scored a win in the Native Diver Stakes there at the end of November. CRK Stables moved him to Cherie DeVaux to try some races outside of California. He ran third in the Louisiana Stakes behind Hit Show and Komorebino Omoide when getting a wide trip that day. I can see him moving forward in this spot. Crupi (#1) might want to go a little longer than the 1 1/16 distance of this race, but this five old son of Curlin started to make a name for himself last year. He won the Suburban and was a runner up in both the Brooklyn and the Whitney. He went off form in the Woodward and the Clark, but his speed figure tells me that he’s turning the corner, despite a 7th place finish in the Pegasus. If closers are getting home on this course, he might be worth upgrading. 

Race 11, The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes:

This is a race where I’m going to want some coverage, but my overall strategy is going to be playing against the Southern California runners, Madaket Road (#5) and Bullard (#10), and the winner of the Southwest, Speed King (#11). I picked Sandman (#3) in the Southwest and I had the right horse, but I got the wrong trip. I think a lot of people were impressed with that effort and I thought his allowance score here in his previous start was very strong as well. He needs to break some bad habits, so I really don’t want to take any price shorter than his 4-1 morning line on him in this race. However, he is well-bred and looks spectacular on the race track. He is putting things together and at this point in the game, he’s on my short list of horses that could win the Derby. I see Coal Battle (#1) as a versatile runner that finds ways to win races. He needs to take a decent step forward at this level, but I like how he’s handled his business in all four starts on the dirt. I like that they skipped the Southwest Stakes to give him a little extra time. He worked three times at Delta before coming back here and working three times over this course since that race. Both Publisher (#6) and Innovator (#8) feel like live longshots to me. Publisher ran a better race than his outcome suggested in the Southwest. He gets a serious rider upgrade and will likely be flying under the radar as the lone winless horse in this race. He was very good when he finished second to American Promise though, putting 19 lengths between him and the third place finisher. Innovator is routing for the second time and I think Tyler Bacon is going to try to secure the lead with him from the rail. He wasn’t aggressive with American Promise in the Southwest and that allowed Speed King to steal inside position. I don’t think Bacon is going to make that mistake again. While there’s a chance that he might get cooked in an aggressive pace battle, he did battle hard over a demanding course last time out. If he gets the rail, he could be hanging around until the end. Hypnus (#4) feels like an absolute wildcard to me in this race. While my instincts tell me to try to beat him, that was a serious effort when debuting at this distance. He’s one that is a deeper saver for me. 

I have horse by horse analysis for this race linked here:

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2025-kentucky-derby-the-grade-2-rebel-stakes-by-eric-solomon/

Race 12:

This excellent card ends with an Arkansas bred maiden special weight contest for three year olds and up, going six furlongs. I’m interested in Touchdown Arkansas (#11) in this race. He was thought highly enough to make his debut in the Rainbow Stakes here last April. He showed some speed before fading to 9th that day. He’s been working well, drilling a strong 47:3 workout a few weeks ago. He gets Lasix for his first start since that race. I think he’s live here. When first time starters have been working well in the mornings, that’s been a strong indicator that they’re going to run well on debut. That is the case for Mayor (#2), who is a son of Cutting Humor making his first start for Ron Moquett. He’s right near the top of the trainer standings at this meet and the fact that Flavien Prat is hanging around to ride this one is a positive sign. The dam was a debut winner and she has foaled two runners to win at first asking. Two Dollar Eddie (#8) was a little better than Tizmarkus (#9) when they were battling for the balance last time out. I think this is a spot where Tizmarkus can turn the tables on his rival. He was making his first start that day, so there’s reason to believe that he’ll be better in his second try for Chris Hartman. He took money on debut, going off as the 5-2 second choice that day. He had a nice maintenance work so I look for him to be more fit for his second try today.

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 58/294 (19.7%, $539.60, $1.84 ROI)

February 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 12/82 (15.3%, $80.60, $0.99 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)