Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes – By Eric Solomon

After 13 horses threw down last weekend at the Fair Grounds in the Risen Star, we have another huge, wide open field in the second of seven races that offer 50 crucial Derby Points to the winner. Bob Baffert has won this race 8 times and he’s hoping that Madaket Road can be added to a list that includes American Pharoah, Lookin’ at Lucky, Secret Circle and Hoppertunity to name a few. Smarty Jones, Curlin, Victory Gallop, Pine Bluff, and Will Take Charge are some other notable winners of this race. Post time for this $1,250,000 contest is scheduled for 5:23 (CT).

Oaklawn Park, Sunday 2/23/24, Race 11: The G2 Rebel Stakes

105 Total Derby points (50-25-15-10-5)

1 – Coal Battle (10-1 ML): The winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes here last month is back in action for Lonnie Briley. This son of Coal Front is undefeated in four starts on the dirt with his only two blemishes coming at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland on the turf. He comes into this race on a three race winning streak, scoring in three stakes races in three different states. He’s handled wet tracks and fast tracks and he’s won on the lead and rallying from the back of the pack. He drew the rail in the Remington Springboard Mile two starts ago, which felt less than ideal with the full field he was dealing with there. Juan Vargas was very patient, waiting for his opportunity to tip out and come with a four wide bid to nail Speed King on the wire. It certainly flattered him when Speed King came back to pull off the upset in the Southwest Stakes at the end of January. He has paired his last two Beyer Speed Figures, so he could be eligible to improve here. I would think 95 would be a good figure to shoot for when looking at who might be able to get to that number and win this race. That would mean that we’d need to see an 11 point improvement to get to that figure. He’s looked better than his figures suggest, so I do think that kind of improvement is on the table. I think what kind of trip he’s going to be able to work out from the rail is a bigger question mark than his overall quality. 

2 – Admiral Dennis (12-1 ML): This son of Constitution stamped himself as a horse to watch with a strong maiden breaking win going a mile at Churchill in his second career start. However, a bad stumble at the break in the Gun Runner Stakes in December ruined that day for him. That race didn’t look particularly strong on paper at the time, but both Built and Magnitude, the first and second place finishers that day, have come back to run strong races. Cox took the conservative approach with him, opting for an allowance race instead of running in the Lecomte. He came back to win, clearing the N1X condition with a solid effort. He’ll need to take a bigger step forward to be competitive with this group though and Cox’s horses have been less than stellar here at Oaklawn this season. We saw with Magnitude last weekend that the lightbulb can go off at any time with well bred horses, so that is kind of the case here. I think I’d need closer to 20-1 to think about trying him in this spot. 

3 – Sandman (4-1 ML): The troubled trip for the lukewarm morning line favorite in the Southwest Stakes was well-documented. He was my top pick that day when he absolutely blew the break, and started from last place in that nine horse field. He came with a sustained bid while tipping out five wide and came within a length of Speed King that day. I do think he was the best horse in that field and moving forward at longer distances, he’s definitely more intriguing to me. However, he must do a better job of getting out of the starting gate. That has been an issue for him in a few other starts as well. We are seeing a horse that clearly has an affinity for this course and after a few shaky efforts in graded stakes company at Churchill, he looks like he is starting to put it all together. He’s a big horse that certainly looks the part on the racetrack. I like the way he’s been progressing and I could see him taking another step forward in this race this afternoon. 

4 – Hypnus (10-1 ML): Last year’s dynamic Derby duo of Brian Hernandez and Ken McPeek are back with this well bred colt who was extremely impressive on debut in the slop at the Fair Grounds. The 5th place finisher from that race, Yinzer, came back to break his maiden in a maiden special weight race on the Risen Star undercard last week in New Orleans. He settled near the back of the field while taking a good amount of mud to the face. He rallied with a strong four wide bid and drew clear late. The final time of that race was a second faster than the Lecomte Stakes later in the evening and his Beyer Speed Figure came back stronger than the one assigned to Disco Time when winning that race. We also saw the Lecomte horses come back with stronger efforts in the Risen Star. This son of Into Mischief is the second foal from the graded stakes winning mare, Dream Tree. He could be any kind, but he’s going to have to be special to beat this field in his first start on what should be a fast race course. He wouldn’t be a surprise, but I’m leaning towards others. 

5 – Madaket Road (9-2 ML): This son of Quality Road was the other, other Baffert in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes three weeks ago at Santa Anita. When Citizen Bull and Rodriguez picked up their tempo, he couldn’t match strides, and ended up finishing third in that five horse affair. All three of Bafferts runners in that race were owned by the same conglomerate of SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, and Madaket, so starting this colt here feels like an intentional effort to spread out their runners to try to maximize the number of possible Derby Points earned to participate in the Kentucky Derby. Bullard beat him in the Bob Hope Stakes when he was making his career debut. The dam was a sprinter and none of her five other horses to make it to the track have earned a win beyond a mile. Distance limitations are definitely a concern for me with this colt. The Baffert name is going to ensure that this colt takes some money, so this feels like a time to play against this one today.

6 – Publisher (20-1 ML): This son of American Pharoah is still looking for his first career win. He ran well to be second behind American Promise, posting a strong Beyer Speed Figure in defeat. There were a lot of troubled trips in the Southwest, and his was up there as one of the tougher ones. He bobbled at the break and was caught behind horses for the better part of the run down the backstretch. He was able to advance along the rail, and was moving well after cutting the corner. However, American Promise veered in sharply, causing him to clip heels and nearly go down. It’s hard to say how many places that incident cost him, but I do think it’s reasonable to believe he would have been better than 6th (He finished 7th and was promoted to 6th via disqualification). I thought he was a bounce candidate in that race, but I thought his overall effort was strong, Flavien Prat replacing Erik Asmussen feels like a major upgrade as well. Despite still being a maiden, there are some things to like here. 

7 – Dreaminblue (15-1 ML): The horse in the field with highest Beyer Speed Figure is this Street Boss colt who was an impressive maiden breaker in his fourth career start. He battled Innovator all the way home when they met in December and he overcame some traffic woes to score with ease last time out. However, that race was at six furlongs. He tried going a mile three starts ago and he was flat. He’s another runner that I suspect will be more effective in one turn races. 

8 – Innovator (15-1 ML): This son of Authentic broke his maiden in his 7th career start for D. Wayne Lukas in December. He had some impressive races at one turn prior to that start. Lukas shipped him to the Fair Grounds where he did all of the heavy lifting in the Lecomte Stakes, only to be caught late, finishing less than a length behind Disco Time and Built and two lengths in front of Magnitude. While the final time from that race was slow, both Magnitude and Built had significant improvements with their figures in the Risen Star. My conclusion is that while the Lecomte was slow, that was a track that was becoming more and more tiring as the day went on. Despite having seven prior starts, he was also making his first start in a route race that day, so I’m expecting him to be more fit for this race. He’s another longshot that has some upside in this race. 

9 – Smoken Wicked (8-1 ML): This modest Louisiana bred has been very good in his last three starts, winning all of them by a combined 15 lengths. He finished 4th, 3 ½ lengths behind Chancer McPatrick in the Hopeful over the summer at Saratoga. His only disappointing effort came when going one mile in the Champagne at the Big A in October. This will be his first start at two turns and the fact that his worst effort came in the race where he ran the farthest distance is not a ringing endorsement. His pedigree says sprinter and this barn struggles when their horses go from sprints to routes. He’s not for me in this race. 

10 – Bullard (5-1 ML): The other horse making the trip to Arkansas from Southern California is this Gun Runner colt who was the winner of the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar in November. His connections paid $675K for him, so like many others in this race, the expectations were high from the jump. He was no match for Barnes in the San Vicente in his most recent start. The dam was unraced, but her two Into Mischief foals, Mundaye Call and Cascais, were useful one turn horses. Perhaps the influence of Gun Runner will help this one stretch out. However, he drew a tough post for his first try at two turns. He has been working well and Umberto Rispoli is making the trip to ride him. He’s another one that wouldn’t be a surprise, but my gut is telling me that he’s going to come up short. 

11 – Speed King (6-1 ML): While many of his rivals had difficult journeys in the Southwest, he certainly had an ideal trip. With other speed horses struggling in the early stages, he was able to get to the rail early on from his outside draw. He set a moderate first quarter, but he took pressure early on from American Promise, who pressed him while three wide. He used his inside position to put away that one. He was able to hold off Sandman and Tiztastic who were running on late. His second place finish to Coal Battle in the Remington Springboard Mile certainly looks better than it did at the time as well. Closers had an edge on that course at Remington and he was dead game while trying to take that field from gate to wire, only to get nailed on the wire. He’s drawn in the outer part of the gate once again, but this time there are some horses with some sprinter speed drawn inside of him. I didn’t think he’d be able to get over to the rail as easily as he did last time, but by doing so, he made himself very hard to beat. Both Innovator and Smoken Wicked are good gate horses so I think they’re going to make his assignment much tougher today. We know he can handle the 1 1/16 mile distance and I don’t think his last effort was a fluke. However, I do think the lack of pace pressure in that race was a little fluky because of the multiple bad trips that occurred in the run into the first turn. I don’t think we’ll see close to his 14-1 price that we saw last month, but that’s about where I’d need him to be again to think about playing him. I think he’s vulnerable in this one. 

12 – Brerton’s Baytown (50-1 ML): Paul McEntee had this one cross-entered in the Battaglia Memorial Stakes yesterday at Turfway. They scratched him out of that rafe and opted for this spot instead. He has one two of his last three starts, but his last race was a win in an open $40K claiming race at Laurel and both of his scores have come on off tracks. He’s listed at 50-1 on the morning line and he’d likely be 30-1 or higher in one of the N1X allowance races for three year olds here. I don’t see him being a factor in this race. 

13 – Tiztastic (8-1 ML): This Tiz the Law is still winless on the dirt, but he did what he always seems to do when he finished third in the Southwest Stakes. He sat in the middle of the pack and came with a steady, but unspectacular late close to get a share of the action. That style has earned him $171K in his four dirt starts, which isn’t bad for not winning any of them. The post is going to be a challenge as well. He’s not one that I’ll be considering to win, but he definitely feels like one to be on the bottom of the exacta or trifecta tickets. 

14 – Hot Gunner (50-1 ML): After finishing last of the six runners when going off at 64-1 in the Smarty Jones, Scott Young brought this Exaggerator gelding to Sam Houston where he cleared the N2L allowance condition when going one mile. He’s still eligible for the N1X allowance condition because of the purse structure at Sam Houston. Like Brerton’s Baytown, he would be long odds in one of those races here. He’s not fast enough and he’s drawn a miserable post. 99-1 isn’t going to be high enough for me. 

The Verdict: 3-1-6-8

This is a race where I’m going to want some coverage, but my overall strategy is going to be playing against the Southern California runners, Madaket Road (#5) and Bullard (#10), and the winner of the Southwest, Speed King (#11). 

I picked Sandman (#3) in the Southwest and I had the right horse, but I got the wrong trip. I think a lot of people were impressed with that effort and I thought his allowance score here in his previous start was very strong as well. He needs to break some bad habits, so I really don’t want to take any price shorter than his 4-1 morning line on him in this race. However, he is well-bred and looks spectacular on the race track. He is putting things together and at this point in the game, he’s on my short list of horses that could win the Derby. 

I see Coal Battle (#1) as a versatile runner that finds ways to win races. He needs to take a decent step forward at this level, but I like how he’s handled his business in all four starts on the dirt. I like that they skipped the Southwest Stakes to give him a little extra time. He worked three times at Delta before coming back here and working three times over this course since that race. 

Both Publisher (#6) and Innovator (#8) feel like live longshots to me. Publisher ran a better race than his outcome suggested in the Southwest. He gets a serious rider upgrade and will likely be flying under the radar as the lone winless horse in this race. He was very good when he finished second to American Promise though, putting 19 lengths between him and the third place finisher. Innovator is routing for the second time and I think Tyler Bacon is going to try to secure the lead with him from the rail. He wasn’t aggressive with American Promise in the Southwest and that allowed Speed King to steal inside position. I don’t think Bacon is going to make that mistake again. While there’s a chance that he might get cooked in an aggressive pace battle, he did battle hard over a demanding course last time out. If he gets the rail, he could be hanging around until the end. 

Hypnus (#4) feels like an absolute wildcard to me in this race. While my instincts tell me to try to beat him, that was a serious effort when debuting at this distance. He’s one that is a deeper saver for me. 

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.