Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 2/7/25 – By Eric Solomon

The first of only two cards this weekend at Oaklawn is a 10 race program highlighted by an optional claiming/allowance race for three year olds in the 9th race of the day. First post this afternoon is scheduled for 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The week begins with an optional $65K maiden claiming race going six furlongs. Horses that were sold for $65K or less or RNA at their latest auction, are able to run without the claiming tag. There are three horses that feel better than the rest in this spot. At 5-1, Frack Baby (#6) is the 4th choice in the wagering in this race, and if that holds true, he feels like the runner that offers the most value. He ran second to Hola Joey on debut in a restricted maiden special weight race here in December. That one came back to win in N1X company here last week. Frack Baby missed the break in that race, but was still moving well to secure second place that afternoon. Greg Compton tried him in a one mile race at a similar class level last time out, but he didn’t seem to be ready for that, finishing a dull 5th in a race where the top three were well clear of the others. Blinkers go on for the first time today while cutting back to a sprint. I think he has a chance to run down the favorite, Putting Eagle (#1) in deep stretch. Putting Eagle does make a good deal of sense in this spot. He paired his first two Beyer Figures in sprint races at Churchill. Hartman brought him here and tried him going one mile in an open maiden special weight race on opening weekend. That experiment failed, but he ran a much better race at a similar level last time out, missing the win by a half length. From the rail, it looks like Bacon has no choice but to send him to the front. I do wonder if his last race was good enough to consider moving him back to an open maiden special weight race though. Instead the decision was to offer him for $35K less than he ran for before. Seeing as how his connections paid $295K for him, that is enough to at least make me wonder about what kind of race he’s going to run. Covert Law (#3) is the second choice in this spot and he finished well behind Frack Baby in his debut. He improved last time out while finishing a close up 5th, about two lengths behind Putting Eagle. He clearly responded to running with Lasix in his second career start. I don’t love taking him as the second choice in a race where he was beaten by two of the other runners. However, he is trending in the right direction, so it feels right to include him on some tickets.

Race 2: 

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this beaten $12,500 claiming race. She has to navigate post 10, but Class Code (#10) feels like an interesting runner in this race, making her second start off the layoff for Ian Jewell. She’s a seven year old mare that does her best work at two turns. She was given about three months off after coming to town from Hastings in Vancouver. She ran in a salty, open $16K claiming race here when going six furlongs. The top two finishers of that race came back to win in their subsequent starts, which speaks to the form and quality of the runners from that race. She drops in class and goes back to routing, which feels like a good thing today. She’s an 11 time winner who has won 8 races in 23 starts over the last two years. I think this seven year old mare could rebound here. I think the favorite in this race, Miss Tappy Tone (#5) is quite vulnerable. She has three career wins in 17 career starts, and all three of those victories came in one turn races. She’s going to draw attention from bettors since her last two dirt Beyer Figures were in the low 70’s, which would be a favorable figure with this group. However, both of those efforts came on sloppy and sealed courses at Churchill, and her career high figure on a fast dirt track is only 64. She’s on the C line in this race for me only if there is an off track, which doesn’t appear to be the case at the time I’m writing this. Instead, I think the more enticing option is in fact, Super Enticing (#6). She ran 4th against a better field in her local debut two weeks ago. That was her first two turn dirt race since pulling up in a maiden race at the end of her two year old campaign. She’s put up decent figures in turf races going one mile in Southern California, and the fact that her speed figure didn’t regress when going from a 5 ½ furlong dirt sprint to a 1 1/16 mile dirt route tells me that she could run back to that effort while facing weaker opposition. 

Race 3:

Three year old fillies will go six furlongs in this $50K maiden claiming race. This is another spot where I’m not very bullish on the morning line favorites. I’m not sure I trust Oklahoma Logic (#8) to carry her speed at six furlongs, while also making her first start since the end of October. Good Call (#3) was claimed off Cox for $35K, but moves to a lower percentage barn that has yet to have an in the money finisher at this meet, while also moving up in class. Instead, I’ll turn my attention to Moon Over Choctaw (#4) making her second start off the layoff for Randy Morse. She’s faced tougher fields in her two dirt starts and now finds a field where there could be some cheap speed that sets up her late move. She gets class relief while running for a barn and an apprentice rider that have both had productive meets thus far. Devil’s Den (#6) makes her debut in this race for Ron Moquett and I see her as an interesting longshot to use in this spot. Her dam was sired by Scat Daddy and she did nothing in her short time as a race horse. Her first two foals to make it to the track have both won races early on in their careers, but not on debut. Her sire Upstart gets 15% with debut winners in dirt sprints. The works aren’t bad for a barn that has been quietly heating up at this meet, winning six times in the last three weeks. While I do worry that Talent Connection (#5) could become a pace casualty in this race, she ran well in her first two career starts at Zia for Todd Fincher. Lasix is added for the first time and, while I’m not crazy about seeing her entered for the $50K tag, I do see her as a candidate to potentially improve in this race. 

Race 4:

State bred $12,500 claimers will go 1 1/16 in this maiden claiming race where the only certainty is that one of these runners will cross the finish line first. Crabtree (#7) ran okay with open $12,500 maiden claiming company. Note that DRF Formulator has that race listed as an open $12,500 maiden claiming race. The Classic print version has this race listed as an open $20K maiden claiming race. Those are the races at Oaklawn that are listed as open $12,500 maiden claiming races, but they allow Arkansas breds, like Crabtree, to run for a $20K tag. When comparing this field to the fields on 12/22 and 1/23, it feels clear that those fields were considerably better than this group. He was wide on both turns in his last, so with a better trip I can see a better outcome for him here. Rerun (#2) is the morning line favorite and there are some things to like in spite of the fact that he’s trying something new for the first time. He debuted on the turf at Louisiana Downs and didn’t run a step. His first two starts on dirt at this meet were respectable, finishing third in both of those six furlong sprints. He’s trying two turns for the first time, so how he’s going to respond in the final quarter mile is a question that needs to be answered. I don’t want to take him at a short price, but I do think I’ve seen enough from him to make sure that he’s covered in this race. On deeper tickets, Angelsnbutterflies (#13) makes his second career start after a forgettable debut. He was away slow and was then impeded before settling near the back of the pack. He finished with some interest to get into 8th in that race. He’ll go two turns for the first time and if he does draw in, he’s going to need to work out a trip from an outside post. However, there’s reason to believe that he’s capable of a better effort in this race. 

Race 5: 

Three year olds will go six furlongs in this $30K maiden claiming race. Rev’s Tomb (#4) is the top pick in this race, making his 4th career start. He faltered two starts back when facing Oklahoma bred maiden special weight company at Remington. His debut and his most recent start were clearly better efforts though. He was away a beat slow last time out when running a race at this same condition. The pace was fairly moderate, so coming from off the pace was going to be a struggle. He was still gaining ground in the late stages of that race, suggesting that he has a better effort on the horizon. The pace should be a little more lively in this race, especially if Montana Cafe (#5) is as pumped up as he was in his debut. He made the early lead but gave it up on the turn before finishing 4th. The top two finishers came back to win in their next starts when facing tougher fields. There was a cluster of horses at the back of the pack and two of those runners that finished behind this Complexity gelding came back to run credible races here and at the Fair Grounds. His speed could be a dangerous weapon in this race, but I’d also like to see Santana have a little more success getting him to relax. These are the two that I feel are most likely to find the Winner’s Circle in this spot. 

Race 6: 

I see Nullify (#5) as a standout in this $50K starter allowance race going 1 1/16 miles. It took him a while to get going, but this $325K son of American Pharoah started to figure some things out in the spring of last year. He was off from April to January, when he returned in a race at this level going six furlongs. I thought that race was likely a little too short for him, which in the end, it was. However, I thought he was impressive, closing well to be third against a pair of sharp runners. His best work has been at two turns and getting that race under his belt should have him sharper for this spot today. I see him as a potential single in the race that begins the Late Pick-5. Demotivate (#7) is the backup play for me here. He drops in class after being overmatched by Miramadhi in N1X allowance company at Santa Anita last month. He joins Peter Miller’s barn and is a candidate to move forward, despite running speed figures that have been flat of late. 

Race 7:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a conditional allowance race for Arkansas breds, going six furlongs. The conditions of this race are designed to make this a prep race for the Nodouble Breeders’ Handicap next month, which is the only stakes sprint race of the year for horses bred in the state of Arkansas. Midnight Taxes (#1) and Lochmoor (#6) are the two principal runners in this race. With the presence of Betty’s Cash (#9) in the outside stall, I think that gives a clear advantage to Lochmoor in this race. He made his first start of the year in an open $40K starter allowance race where he faced a tougher group. He was an even 4th place in that six horse field. He makes his second start off the layoff and comes back to face state bred company. After finishing third in the Nodouble Breeders’ Handicap last year, he went on to win three straight races, all at 1 1/16 miles. While that might be his best distance, he’s more than capable of winning at six furlongs. He has four wins in 12 career starts at this distance and all seven of his career wins have come on this oval. He’s looking to solidify his status as the best Arky bred in training, while also putting himself in position to try to sweep both of the state bred stakes races at this meet. Navy Seal (#5) is the more desirable backup for me in this race. He has a little more tactical speed than Lochmoor, so he could get the jump on his rival if things shake out the right way. He was a winner when making his first start of the meet in December when racing on a muddy course. Few horses on that card were able to win when going four wide on the turn, so that race might be a little better than it looks on paper. He left Hawthorne this summer in good form and he certainly seemed to keep things rolling here. This is a tougher group but, he is not without a chance.

Race 8: 

The final Pick-3 opportunity of the afternoon begins with a $20K-$15K N2L claiming race for three year olds and up, going six furlongs. I see this as a wide open race where I’d want a decent amount of coverage in the multi-race wagers. I’m going to try Barrel Thief (#6) on top for Gene Jacquot. He’s making his first start since July when he misfired at Prairie Meadows. He was sharp with $20K N2L claimers there two back though, Jacquot doesn’t have great numbers with horses coming off the layoff, but he’s done well with a limited number of starters that he’s brought to this meet so far. The horse has run a career top figure at the time when making his first start off a six month layoff last year. He feels like a live longshot in a race where there are several that don’t love to win. More Than Five (#5) fits in that category, but it is worth noting that there have been five times in his 17 race career where he’s finished second by a ½ length or less. Two of those five races came in his last two starts here at Oaklawn. He disappointed as the 4-5 last time out, but he definitely likes competing on this oval. I can’t take too short of a price on him, but if he hovers around his 7-2 morning line figure, I would certainly deem that as fair value. On deeper tickets, I’ll include both of the Asmussen runners. Humor Me Now (#11) has been sidelined since last April. He’s more of a two turn horse. His only start at one turn came in a seven furlong race, where he tried to stay close to slow pace in a small field while facing better rivals. He’s probably still better in route races, but he’s the kind of horse that could benefit from some type of pace meltdown. Air It Out (#8) has two good efforts in a row when competing on sealed wet tracks here and at Sam Houston. He’s a four year old, so he could be trending in the right direction, but at shorter odds, I do have a fear about regression if he gets a fast track today. I still see him as a runner worth including at this level . 

Race 9:

Three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles in this optional $150K claiming/N1X allowance race. While I think the track was hopeful to maybe catch a late developing Triple Crown Series candidate in a race like this, I’m not sure that’s going to be the case with this seven horse field. Landing Craft (#4) and First Division (#6) are both coming off strong wins in maiden optional claiming races. Both of these two runners were sired by Omaha Beach. Landing Craft showed little in his first two starts at Churchill, but he shipped here and ran a huge race when trying two turns for the first time. It’s worth mentioning that his last race came on the heels of a week off of racing at Oaklawn. When racing resumed on 1/17, inside speed was playing well, especially in the first half of that card. On the flip side, he was working well going into that race and he fired a 47:3 four furlong bullet last week. First Division took some money in his debut when going six furlongs and he nailed his rivals on the wire with a strong late surge. McPeek goes sprint to route for his second career attempt. The pedigree is there to handle two turns, but he is trying something new for the first time. Both of these runners are the ones who seemingly have the highest ceiling in this field, and I’ll be covering with both of them. However, I’m intrigued with Rio Chama (#2) here for Michael Stidham and Godolphin. This American Pharoah colt was a winner on debut at Colonial Downs this summer and he came back to finish second in a six furlong N1X allowance race in the mud toward the end of their meet. He went to the sidelines until December when he resurfaced in a much tougher race at this level. He was beaten by Sandman, who certainly flattered that field when he was a troubled trip second in the Southwest Stakes two weeks ago. This well bred colt was wide on both turns and came up empty in his first start back. He makes his second start off the layoff after running a few solid workouts. Stidham started this meet 0-9 with none of those runners finishing in the money. His last three starters all hit the board with one of them finding the Winner’s Circle. The dam produced Secret Spice, who won the Grade 1 Beholder Mile at Santa Anita. The barn is heating up and I think he has more upside than McDude (#1) who is coming out of the same race and finished a head in front of him. Rio Chama is the lone A line play for me in this spot.

Race 10:

The day ends with a beaten $12,500-$10,000 claiming race going six furlongs. This is another wide open event, so I believe it’s worth going price shopping. Arthur (#6) misfired last out while getting buried in behind runners. He was well-backed at the windows, but he didn’t get a great trip as his apprentice rider allowed him to lose position, thus creating some of his traffic woes. He was claimed by Tammy Hornsby, who is quietly having an above average meet. He ran well at Keeneland and Churchill in the fall so there’s reason to believe that he’s better than his last start. Worth Looking (#7) was claimed for $7,500 in his first start of the meet. He ran well to be second in that race. Todd Jordan entered him in an open $10K starter allowance race in his most recent start, where he faced considerably better rivals. He was 6th of 9 runners in that race, finishing six lengths behind the winner. He’s a fairly consistent horse that might not have the highest ceiling in the field, but at this level, it’s worth considering that he probably has the highest floor. Dance Man (#4) is another longer priced option in this race. He’s moving up in class after clearing the N2L level for the same tag last time out. He’s a four year old, so there still could be some upside here. That being said, he’s probably going to have to run a career top race to score here. If we’re seeing early speed have success today, I could consider upgrading him because I do think he’ll be the leader after the first ¼ mile. Husker Butch (#11) makes his third start off the layoff this afternoon. He came back to the races while running against better company in higher priced N3L claiming races. Those races would likely make him competitive with this group. He is 0-9 on this oval, so I do think I’d want to get better odds than his 6-1 morning line. He’s more of a backup play for me here. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 50/240 (20.8%, $488.80, $2.04 ROI)

February 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 4/28 (14.2%, $29.80, $1.06 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)