Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 2/27/26 – By Eric Solomon

Oaklawn Park is hosting a nine race card this Friday, highlighted by the Trivista Overnight Stakes. Fillies and mares that have yet to win an open stakes race will compete there. First post is set for 12:30 (CST).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Fillies and mares will start the day in a $10K maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. Horses bred in the state of Arkansas will run with a $16K tag. The logical favorite in this race is Avery County (#2), and despite having some good efforts on paper, I’m concerned about why her connections put her in this spot. She was 5th, beaten three lengths in her last start two weeks ago when facing state bred three year old fillies in maiden special weight foes. She showed improvement in that race, and appears that she could be sitting on a better effort in her third career try. However, if that was the case, why are they entering her for a $16K tag in a race which carries a $30K purse? The maiden special weight races carry a $110K purse. Honestly, if the goal was to drop in class and win, why didn’t they enter her in the $12,500 state bred maiden claiming race yesterday? The purse was the same, so the only difference would be $3,500 in claiming tags. She would have been even money in that field, and while she might be close to that here, she is trying something new for the first time and facing older horses for the first time as well. I’ll back up with her on the B line simply because of the lack of depth in this race, but I can’t play her with confidence to win at short odds. I’ll make Smooth Marriage (#3) the top pick in this race. She is making her second start off the layoff this afternoon after an uninspiring return to the races at this level last month. I think the field for that $10K maiden claiming race was deeper than this group though. She also looked like a better horse in her lone try at two turns. Calipari’s Girl (#7) is also making her second start off the layoff, although she was sidelined much longer than the top pick was. Her debut was okay back in late 2024, but she fell apart when facing Take Charge Milady in open maiden allowance company in her second start. She missed over a year and returned three weeks ago in a $20,000-$12,500 maiden claiming sprint where she never really found her footing. Ramon Vazquez taking the mount for Mike Maker feels somewhat significant as she tries a route for the second time. 

Race 2: 

Arkansas breds will go six furlongs in this $25K N2L claiming spot. I don’t really have anything creative here where the three shortest prices make a lot of sense. Personal Jet (#1) is spotted well for a horse that will be facing winners for the first time. He was claimed for $16K at the end of the Ellis meet and then was sidelined before returning in a $20,000-$12,500 maiden claiming race where he was able to run with the waiver. He crushed that field with relative ease, putting up a strong Beyer Figure in the process. While I am a little concerned about a bounce here, his trainer, Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez, has very good numbers with last out winners. Whenever he’;s involved early in a race, he runs well, so I’m expecting Crisitan Torres to hustle him away from the gate. Time Andbeyond (#2) and Max Dot Socks (#6) finished second and third, respectively, in a similar race three weeks ago. Max Dot Socks has more tactical speed and Time Andbeyond does his best running late. I think Max Dot Socks got a little tired last out in a race where he was three wide all the way around the turn. Time Andbeyond is a little more consistent, but Max Dot Socks seems to have gotten over his two race slump where he was abysmal. Both runners make sense here. 

Race 3:

This is a straight $12,500 maiden claiming race for three year olds and up going six furlongs. Typically, Arkansas breds can choose to run with a $20,000 tag in these races, however, that option was not on the table in this spot. However, there have been several opportunities for state bred runners over the last few days, so having that option probably wouldn’t have added anything to this race. While Grand Oracle (#2) who will be a heavy favorite here, is going to be on some tickets, I worry that he’s trending in the wrong direction. He showed promise on debut last year in maiden allowance company, but he struggled in his next two starts. He was laid off before returning here to finish 4th against better maiden claimers. I’ll give a look to Highway Patrol (#4) in hopes that his last two abysmal efforts were a function of the synthetic track and cold weather at Turfway. All of his dirt sprint races came against better competition, but the fast track figures stack up against this field. 

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go six furlongs in this $20K N2L claiming race. Four of the seven runners in this race faced off in a $12,500 N2L claiming race two weeks ago and three of those runners were claimed. The morning line favorite just graduated from a $30K maiden claiming race. The other two runners include a shipper from a lower level circuit and another recent maiden breaker who did face winners once last out, going up against a tougher group. Forty Love (#4) ran a big race last time out, and while he was never going to beat the runaway winner, who put up a big number in the process, he definitely would have been closer with a better trip. He was bumped hard coming out of the gate as the runner next to him stumbled badly. That cost him early positioning as he was buried in behind runners. He was caught behind horses that were fading on the turn, all while the winner was widening his lead. He tipped out and finally broke free. He was clearly second that day, and he was much more impressive than the other three runners from that race. He’s been a popular horse to claim of late, but he continues to run solid efforts. I think the six furlong trip of this race suits him better than the 5 ½ furlong race he was last seen in. I see him as the one to beat. The backup for me is Trouble Ahead (#3). He’s coming off a maiden claiming win here two weeks ago. While I’m usually hesitant to back maiden claiming graduates facing winners for the first time, I think he’s spotted reasonably, while also facing horses moving up in class. I also appreciate his steadily improving pattern of races coming into this spot. He appears to be the clear threat to the top pick, 

Race 5: 

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this beaten $12,500 claiming race. Horses that have not won a race in six months or horses that have never won three times are eligible to compete here. High Summer (#9) makes a lot of sense in this race. She is making her third start of the meet and getting significant class relief while doing so. She was good enough to win a maiden special weight and a first level allowance race in consecutive races at Horseshoe Indy this summer. She was ambitiously placed in her first two tries here, but this feels like the right level for her today. Smart With a Heart (#3) has some upside in her second start off a layoff .She was claimed for $16K at Churchill and then ran poorly when trying $20K claimers there twenty days later. Something was amiss as she was sidelined for three months. She came back with $12,500 N2Y claimers here two weeks ago, but since then, she became eligible under the N1Y condition, which is typically a softer group. After taking a little time to find her best stride, she did finish with interest, suggesting that she could improve in this spot. Getting Ramon Vazquez to ride today feels like a good signal. Even though the trainers are different, Gene Burkholder owns both Collected Glory (#1) and Riobella (#1A). Since this is a lower level claiming race, they’ll run as a coupled entry. Riobella is trained by Kim Puhl and was very good at this level last season. She’s been away since March and will be dangerous if she can retain that form. The works are solid, but at this level, expecting her to be as sharp as she was 11 months ago is asking a lot. His stablemate, Catching Glory (#1) has one start at the meet so far. He’s struggled here at Oaklawn, winning only one time in 16 career starts. He was picking up steam at Prairie Meadows over the summer, so if he can get back to those races, he can contend here. I’m good using the entry on the B line here. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-4 begins with a $25K N2L claiming race for three year old fillies. Both Amazing Amanda (#3) and Big Red Machine (#7) are coming out of the same starter allowance race where the front-runners went fast early. Amazing Amanda didn’t go with them and then appeared to take an awkward step, causing her to get shuffled to the back of the pack where she never really recovered. Big Red Machine tried to go with the front-runners, but couldn’t keep up. She kept on grinding to re-claim third, but she was still falling farther behind the top two finishers. While the class relief should be beneficial to both, I think Cristian Torres is going to try to take it to Big Red Machine from the jump in this race. His filly didn’t fire when she tried to settle, so with his inside position, I think that’s his only recourse if he wants to win this race. I think that could set the table for a horse to come from off the pace. I think if Keith Asmussen can keep Look N Mighty Fine (#1) a little closer today, she could be the horse to run down the favorites. Tiz in Sight is all about early speed and that filly took it to both fields here in her last two starts. She was clearly better than her that day and she was clearly better than the two favorites three weeks ago. Joel Rosario rode this filly last time and he had her in last early on and she never really got involved. She looked like a competent stalker when breaking her maiden on debut in June and then finishing second in allowance company at Remington two starts ago. Like the others, I think she’s dropping to the right level. I can see either Amazing Amanda or Big Red Machine repelling the other’s challenge, so I think they’re both A line material in this race as well. I’ll give the slight preference to Amazing Amanda since I think she can secure the inside position, which was generally favorable on this course last week. 

Race 7:

The $3 Late Pick-3 starts with a first level allowance race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. I made a case for Genaro Garcia trained runner going from synthetic to dirt earlier in the card and I think Patty Van Twinkle (#3) is another horse that fits that mold here. She had a good thing going at Aqueduct last winter, putting together a strong four race stretch from January to April. She went to the sidelines and was a winner when returning in the slop in a $40K claimer at Churchill in November. Garcia kept her in Kentucky, but she showed no love for the synthetic course at Turfway. She faltered at this level when going a two turn mile two starts ago. She was a little better in a similar spot when sprinting there last time, but I think she’s a mare that wants to be on the dirt. She has credible races at this distance despite running her best efforts in longer, one turn races. She finds a fairly soft field for this condition today. She’s starting at 10-1, like her stablemate, Highway Patrol, in the 3rd race. I think how that one performs and how that one is received by the public’s wagering dollars, should give a clue as to what price to expect on her in this spot. I’d love her at 10-1, but I think closer to 5-1 is a more reasonable expectation. If inside speed is good today, I think that gives an edge to Beautiful Twice (#1), who will be making her local debut today. She was a gate to winner on Halloween in a maiden allowance at Remington. She ran back there in allowance company toward the end of the meet in December where she was caught late in a 5 ½ furlong dash. She has two solid efforts, and while I don’t love playing Remington horses in their local debut, there are some things to like about her, especially if early speed is holding well. Her presence should ensure a lively pace for Kelly’s Girl (#8), who is the morning line favorite in this race after a strong effort at this level in December. She’s an Illinois bred who was competitive in open company at Hawthorne and her last effort definitely validated her Chicagoland form. 

Race 8, The $135K Trivista Overnight Stakes:

When looking at this race, I’m trying to figure out a logical way for Nerazurri (#2) to lose this race. She was excellent when winning a similar overnight stakes race here on New Year’s Day. That effort was good enough for her to be considered to take on her champion stablemate, Nitrogen, in the Bayakoa Stakes here three weeks ago. She gave that one her best, but she could do no better than second that day. However, it’s fair to point out that she was clearly better than anyone else, finishing well in front of the third place finisher in that race. The fact that Mark Casse is coming back to an overnight stakes with this filly, tells me that Nitrogen is eyeing up the Azeri here in order to get herself in position for the Apple Blossom in April. This Protonico filly has really come into her own on this course and I think she’ll get another notch on her belt in this spot. The backup for me will be the Southern California shipper, Home Game (#1). She was 5th in the Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes that was contested in the fall at Del Mar (not to be confused with the Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes that was contested here on 2/7). She went off at long odds in that spot where she chased a slow pace. There isn’t much speed signed on for this race, so I’m thinking that Ramon Vazquez will try to send her along from the rail. She might still be in a little deep, but she could start getting brave, especially if inside speed is good. 

Race 9:

We’ll close things out with a beaten $16K claiming race, restricted to Arkansas breds that have either never won three times or have not won a race in six months.Both String Theory (#1) and Patton’s Tizzy (#10) are short numbers on the morning line, and I’m not convinced that either will be able to run back to their last starts. You Vee Cee (#9) is an eight year old gelding that should be able to move forward in this race. He was a very lukewarm favorite in a state bred $25K claimer on President’s Day. He was making his first start since September and he was flat in that race. He drops in class and gets his second start off the bench, He was sharp last year in lower level state bred claiming races. Others have a higher ceiling than Landlord, (#5), but he’s the horse in this field that feels like he has the highest floor. He’s generally consistent and is eligible to be sharper when making his second start off a layoff. This is another horse where Ramon Vazquez is taking over from a lower percentage rider. He’s been upgrading his mounts consistently this month. Holding Pattern (#6) is another one making his second start off the layoff. He was sluggish early in his last start, but he got rolling late. He is a capable old-timer that has four wins on this course and five wins at this distance in his 46 race career. He was fairly sharp this summer in Iowa, so he’s another runner that makes sense to bump up here. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 48/244 (19.7%, $372.00 $1.52 ROI)