Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Monday, 2/16/26 – By Eric Solomon

The President’s Day card at Oaklawn offers 11 races, highlighted by Ozark Stakes for three year old sprinters. There’s an interesting name returning to the races as the winner of last year’s Saratoga Special, Ewing, makes his first start since that race for Mark Casse. While it might be a little late to get him ready to go 10 furlongs in time for the Derby, he is nominated to the Triple Crown and could be pondering a two turn Derby Points race, should things go well today. After this card, they’ll take two days off and be back for another four day race beginning on Thursday. Post time today is scheduled for 12:30 (CDT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Fillies and mares will start the day in a six furlong maiden special weight race. River Wind (#1), a first time starter, and Empath (#5), a second time starter, are both three year old fillies taking on five, four year old fillies today. This is a tricky race because the two favorites, Quick to Charm (#7) and Love Supreme (#6), don’t feel like great bets at shot odds here. However, the other five are not really easy to make cases for either. At the end of the day, I think Quick to Charm has the best chance of winning this race. She’s been close before, but she just hasn’t been able to seal the deal. She cuts back to a sprint after a failed attempt when going the one turn mile at Churchill in her last start. I think there are a few runners here that are prone to flashing speed and then fading, which would certainly support her cause. Love Supreme (#6) is beautifully bred, but I feel like she’s going to show her best stuff at two turns. Perhaps that’s the plan next time out after three straight sprint races in Kentucky, and then three months on the bench. She feels like a bit of a plodder at this point, but I do trust her to be passing many of the others. Empath is a little interesting and I liked her chances had she drawn into a different spot the other day. I think taking on older runners is a big ask after her debut, but I also feel like she does have a forward move. She’s a deeper saver for me. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will go one mile in this $30K maiden claiming race. Relevate (#1) is the pick for me here, making her first start for a tag today. She was consistent in her first three starts in maiden special weight weight company at Aqueduct. She struggled in her last start at the Fair Grounds though, fading badly in a six furlong sprint. She’ll try two turns on the dirt for the first time today after a few respectable drills on this oval. I think she has a better chance than her shorter priced stablemate, McKinzie’s Glory (#4). Donita (#6) makes her first start off the claim for Cipriano Contreras today. She’s been away since the middle of October when she was claimed for $25K in a race on the turf in Indianapolis. This barn is very sharp with their runners first off the claim. I like the surface switch for another horse that will be routing on the dirt for the first time. With Kindness (#10) is the morning line favorite who is making her second start on this oval after making her first six career starts in South Florida at Gulfstream. Her last race is one of those efforts that looks much worse on paper than it was in reality. She maintained her rail position while the pacesetter was racing in the three path for the better part of the run down the backstretch. As the field made their way into the turn, the pacesetter began moving in, while two other horses ranged up on her outside. She took the worst of it as her lane was shut off and she checked badly and plummeted to the back of the field. At that point in the race, Ricardo Santana just guided her to the outside and let her jog home, since there was no way that she was going to be able to get back into the race. While her best work prior to that effort came in one turn races, I don’t think the mile distance at this level is out of her reach. The outside post can be tricky, but I do see her as a candidate to rebound on the class drop.

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $12,500-$10,000 N3L claiming race. Blue Dazzler (#10) is the pick for me in this race. She gets an outside draw in a race where there are several horses that have major question marks in my eyes. She ran well to be third in her return to Hot Springs last month. She was a voided claim in that race, but she has two works since and she’s now making her second start off the layoff for Kim Puhl. While she’s 0-7 here, I do think she’s competing at the right level of competition. I’m interested to see how Balls in Ur Court (#5) handles the dirt here at Oaklawn. She’s a Woodbine invader who is owned by Bruno Schickedanz. He often sent a string of Canadian based horses to Oaklawn for the winter with Norman McKnight, who recently retired. Eric Foster is training this Ontario bred filly sired by Souper Speedy. Speed was the name of her game on the Tapeta, winning two times in eight career starts. Both of her wins came at 5 ½ furlongs there, so the six furlong trip is a question mark as of now. However, she’s likely quick enough to secure inside position and if she’s feeling herself on the lead, she might be able to give them the slip. While she keeps moving up in class, Jet Pack (#3) continues to find some fields that are not the strongest for their given conditions. She has two wins in two starts at this meet, with Ramon Vazquez riding both times. It’s a little curious that he’s not riding her in this spot, since he is named to ride other horses on this card. Rafael Bejarano is a capable replacement though. She’s a B line player for me, since it is still difficult to clear three conditions in three races. 

Race 4:

This is a $40K starter allowance race for four year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles where the only qualifier is that a horse has run a $40K claiming tag or less at least since the start of 2024. This designation is important because a lot of the higher priced starter allowances tend to have multiple conditions that need to be met for a horse to be eligible, which typically leads to a softer field. I’m interested that Cherie DeVaux is sending Sweetalkingbourbon (#4) to Oaklawn from his Turfway base. He broke his maiden there in a $30K maiden claiming race last winter. Since then, he’s made six starts, all of which have come in starter allowance company. He’s been competitive in all six tries, winning his last two at Keeneland and Churchill. The Keeneland win came in a starter allowance race where horses also had to be eligible for the N1X condition and the Churchill race was restricted to horses that had never won three times. This is a step up in class, but his connections continue to seek out spots like this, which tells me they know what they have with this gelding. He’s valued by them since he continues to run strong races, so he’s not running in claiming races, however, they’re also not running him in races where he’s over his head. Mena (#2) has had the misfortune of being 0-8 here at Oaklawn, but he’s run some strong races here, mainly having some bad luck. He had to be used early in a N1X allowance race last time out when he drew post 10 of 12. He hit the front at the top of the stretch, but was collared late and then faded to be 4th. He has four second place finishes here and some races where he’s been on the wrong side of some photos. He’s getting class relief today, but the fact that Ron Moquett is keeping him in a protected spot feels like a positive sign. Another horse that is shipping in from out of town for this race is Systemic Change (#1) for Mike Maker. He’s coming off three straight solid efforts in one turn mile races at Aqueduct. While I think the one turn mile might be what he does best, he has won on this course at this distance in the past. He’s a horse that knows how to win races, scoring 10 times in 27 career starts. Adding blinkers today is an interesting decision since he has been running well and hasn’t worn them since 2023. He’s a quality foe though and one that definitely adds intrigue to this race. 

Race 5: 

Arkansas breds will go six furlongs in this $20K maiden claiming race. It’s important to note that Gray Taps (#8), who is the morning line favorite in this race, is cross-entered in a state bred $40K maiden claiming race here on Saturday, which tells me that it’s not likely that he’s going to compete in this race. Cutting Class (#13), who is a live longshot in my eyes, would likely then have the chance to decide if this race or the $20,000-$12,500 maiden claiming race on Thursday is where he’ll have the best chance to win. Gray Taps would be on my tickets if he’s in this race and I’d actually make Cutting Class the top pick if he’s racing here. When he’s in over his head, he shuts down, and that’s been the case in his three tries in state bred maiden allowance company. Something was amiss last spring when he tried the $20,000-$12,500 condition for the first time, and then he went to the sidelines until the end of November, when he resurfaced at Remington. He ran a respectable race to be third in that open $20K maiden claiming race. He has some speed and if he’s in this race, he’ll be posted on the outside where he can be the one applying pressure. I do think the state bred $20K condition is typically a little softer than the open $20,000-$12,500 maiden claiming races where only the state bred horses get to run with the $20K tag. If his connections opt to wait for the Thursday race, I’ll give a look to Bali Deen (#3) in his second start. He was pinched back at the start in his debut and had to get going from the back of the field when facing $50K state bred maiden claimers at the end of December. He did gain a decent amount of ground late to get into 6, beaten about 5 ½ lengths. He’s a three year old taking on older horses, which is not ideal at this point in the year. However, I think there are some things to like, especially when considering the number of speed and fade type horses that are entered in this field. You do have to wonder if today is the day for the 22 time maiden, Pearcy Road (#9). He does have nine in the money finishes and including a second place finish in a two turn race at this level when making his first start off a five month layoff in his last start. The few times he’s been in cheaper maiden claiming races, he’s been competitive, so this might be the kind of spot where he can finally break through. On deeper tickets, Imo the Best (#6) is another longer priced option that could be worth considering in this race. He started to figure some things out in a bottom maiden claiming race at Lone Star back in June. He went to the sidelines and came back in a two turn race at this level in January. We’ve seen a lot of horses use races like that out of necessity, since the trainers wanted to get a race in here before the holiday break. I think they would’ve rather tried a one turn race for this Texas Chrome gelding. I do think the longer race could help his fitness level for this race. 

Race 6:

The first leg of the Classix Pick-6 wager will be a beaten $12,500 claiming race for older runners going 1 1/16 miles. This race is open for horses that qualify under the N3L condition or horses that have not won a race since July 16, 2025. There feels like a lot of filler in this race, so barring some weird trips, I think you’re fairly safe playing the two shorter prices here. Cobblestone Bridge (#1) is the narrow morning line favorite over Brad Cox’s Ga Mo Tak (#11). I do think the top pick conversation between these two runners becomes interesting though. Ga Mo Tak was Group 1 placed in Chile in 2024, but he wasn’t competitive in N2X allowance races here in the States. He was deemed eligible for the first level allowance condition at Horseshoe Indy two starts back and he ran a solid third day, which was also his only two turn try in North America. He came here a month later and was not a factor in a sprint at that same N1X condition. His two wins in Chile were at 7 ½ furlongs and he was third in a pair of Group races at a mile and 1 3/16 miles. This is a deep drop so it’s fair to be suspicious. I think he goes off as the favorite, but I think he’s got a little bit of a better chance to win than Cobblestone Bridge. That one will be on the A line for me though he was a winner in starter allowance company at Parx three starts ago. He shipped to the Fair Grounds where he had a rough trip against a sharp group of beaten $30K claimers. He was third with beaten $15K claimers in his last start. He draws the rail, which should allow him to save more ground than the top pick in this race. Michael Stidham is a good trainer, but his horses have struggled at this meet so far.

Race 7: 

The last Pick-5 opportunity of the day begins with a state bred beaten $25K-$20K claiming race at six furlongs. This race is tricky because, while he definitely fits at this level, the morning line favorite, King Peanut (#7), has not won a race since 2023, losing 16 straight times in the process. While I do like that he’s cutting back to a sprint, while also getting some class relief, he’s been in some winnable races during this time and he’s failed to seal the deal. Instead, I’ll try the eight year old gelding, You Vee Cee (#3) on top, while making his first start of the year. He has been fairly consistent, hitting the board in seven straight starts, while winning three of those races. He’s been working well over this course and while he might not be 100% yet, I think he could be good enough to beat this group. Another runner that hasn’t started since September at Prairie Meadows is Brahms Image (#11). While he didn’t win a race here last season, he was competitive in state bred N1X races. He was a winner three back in Iowa when going a mile in a beaten $20K claiming race there. I think he’s a good fit with this field for his first try of 2026. He’ll need two defections to draw in, but I think Burlsworth (#14) is worth considering on deeper tickets if he does compete. It helps his cause that the horse ahead of him on the AE list, Giant Moon (#13), found a race on Thursday where he fits. He was sharp here in 2025, clearing the state bred N1X condition in March. He struggled against some of the better Arkansas bred runners and he failed to fight the level of competition in his last three tries outside of the Natural State. I like him at this level and while he might be more effective in his start, I think he could make things interesting if he’s in. 

Race 8: 

Three year olds and up will go one mile in this $75K N2L claiming race. While three year olds were eligible, every runner in this race is either a four or five year old. This condition is designed for horses that might be in over their heads in N1X allowance company here. The top pick for me in this race is La Houligan (#3) for Greg Compton. He likes to run in the middle of the pack and make a run at the leaders. He hasn’t had a lot of opportunities to show his tactical speed in his last two starts though, since he had wider posts. He tried to get a good spot in his last start when he was a big longshot in a N1X race, but he wound up being wide throughout, which is no way to pull off a 25-1 upset. He ran well here in his last two starts during the 24-25 meet and he was able to break his maiden in a two turn race at Churchill in May. He’s better than his last race and while I’d really like him at 1 1/16 miles where he’d have the full stretch to work with, I think he makes a lot of sense with this group.  I also like Camp Evans (#5) in this race for Bob Young. He just missed in a six furlong sprint at this level here in December. He came back at the N1X condition where he drew the rail in a full 12 horse field. He couldn’t hold his position on the front end and was caught behind horses while in chase mode. He was never going to beat that field, so the drop back to the class makes sense. He ran well at two turns at Gulfstream in the fall, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the front. While it’s a quick turnaround, I think this is a good spot for him. I’ll also throw in The Warden (#2) here on some tickets. He broke his maiden in open maiden allowance company on this course when going two turns. He was out in front that day, but that was the last time he’s really been the pacesetter in a race. I think others are faster than him in the early stages, but I do think he can secure a good position going into the backstretch run. For a horse that figures to be one of the favorites though, I would like to see evidence that he can win a race where he’s not setting a slow tempo. 

Race 9: The $150K Ozark Stakes:

The feature today is a six furlong dash for three year olds and the name to know here is Ewing (#8) for Mark Casse. He debuted in a five horse field in July at Saratoga and he ran the way you’d want a 3-10 horse to run. He drew off with ease, winning by 12 widening lengths that day. He made his next start in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special where he made the lead and was able to hold Obliteration off as the 17-10 second choice in that race. Obliteration is a very nice sprinter, but he opted to skip this race after winning the Renaissance Stakes here at this condition last month. Since then, an injury derailed the rest of his two year old campaign. Casse, whose success thus far here this season has been well-documented, has had him working well for his three year old debut. Early speed is the name of his game and the only one he really should have to deal with in the first quarter mile is Dirty Rich (#1), who won the Advent Stakes here in December. He had no answer for Obliteration in his last start in the Renaissance, so it;s hard to imagine him giving this aptly named Knicks Go colt a run for his money. The logical backup is Oscar’s Hope (#9). If you’re backing this horse, the hope is that Ewing is softened up in the first half mile in his first start since the summer. This Twirling Candy colt cleared the N1X allowance condition at Churchill and then he went on to win the Jean Laffite Futurity at Delta Downs when going 7 ½ furlongs, which is a two-turn race there. He was never a factor in the Smarty Jones last out at 1 1/16 miles, so perhaps the distance limitations are real with this one. If speed horses appear to be struggling over this course as it continues to dry out from Saturday’s rains, I’d upgrade him here. However, it has been really hard to go against a Mark Casse horse during this meet.

Race 10:

The $5 Late Double begins with a N1X allowance race for four year olds and up, going one mile. It’s fascinating to me that Crisis Manager (#10) is the morning favorite, while coming back to Arkansas after finishing second at this level at the Fair Grounds in his last start. He had a wide trip here two back and Dance Some Mo (#8), who he’ll see again today, was much better than he was. Granted that one is an eight year old gelding, who is still eligible for the first level allowance here. However, that one might be in the best form of his career at the moment. As for Crisis Manager, while he might have more upside, he’s going to have to over a wider post. He ran second to a nice horse last time out, but by and large, I think the first level allowance races here are tougher. My best bet on the card is Gun Runner Charlie (#3) today. He had a rough trip at this level on January 3rd. He broke last after taking a funky step out of the gate. He progressed well along the inside and put himself into contention on the turn. He was faced with a wall of horses and Ramon Vazquez opted to avoid going six or seven wide, and tried to find a split to make his run. He had two different lanes, but things got tight and he wasn’t able to maintain that momentum when finishing third. I think he’s drawn better than the other two shorter prices in this race, and with a better break, I expect him to have the edge at the top of the stretch. Dance Some Mo is the backup for me. He had a decent trip in that same race and he battled hard against the winner, Super Cruise, who went off at 3-2. It’s unusual for a horse to hit a career top Beyer Figure as an eight year old, so whether or not he can keep that momentum going, we will see. However, he’s earned the shot to keep battling at this level. 

Race 11:

We’ll end the holiday weekend with the second division of a $20K state bred maiden claiming contest. Go Go Ro Ro (#5) has had the lead at the top of the stretch in his last two starts, only to fall apart late. He was going 1 1/16 miles last out when making his first start since April. I’d had to think that foundation gives him an edge in a race where the strongest competition might be stuck on the AE list. He makes a lot of sense as an A line player, but I want a price on top in this race. An interesting player in this field is Polar Wolf (#11), who is making his first start for John Ortiz. The works aren’t terrible and his full brother was a game third in a state bred maiden special weight here last season. John Ortiz saddled a debut winner state bred maiden claiming company here last month. While he’s a three year old taking on older horses, this is not a strong field. Conway (#2) is making his third start off the layoff for Ron Moquett. He ran his best race last season in his third career start and he did pair his Beyer Figures from his first two tries. He’s back in a field that is strictly for state bred runners, so I do think he has a shot to move forward here. I do think both AE runners are worth thinking about if they draw into this race. My Russian (#13) was right behind Go Go Ro Ro last out in a route race. He cuts back in distance while staying at this level, which is probably where he wants to be. Getoutyourwallet (#14) re-entered on Friday in a $40K race for fellow Arky breds. He’s probably earned the right to take a swing at that level before dropping in class here. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 40/195 (20.5%, $310.60 $1.59 ROI)