Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 12/27/25 – By Eric Solomon

Two year olds take the spotlight this afternoon as all ten races on the Saturday card are for the babies. The featured race is the $150K Years End Stakes for two year old fillies going one mile. Post time for the first race is set to go off at 12:30 (CDT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The first race of the afternoon is a maiden special weight contest for Arkansas bred two year olds going one mile. Four of the nine runners in this race ran against Honey’s to Blame in a six furlong sprint two weeks ago. That one ran a monster race that day, drawing clear to win by open lengths. Cattle Baron (#4) was clearly second best that afternoon, finishing five lengths ahead of the third place finisher in his second career start. He was a bit of a handful for Evin Roman that day. He broke inward and bumped another rival, causing him to lose a few lengths of position in the first 100 yards. He pulled his way up through the field, while steadying after running up on heels of some rivals. He finally settled off the leaders and then made some progress when tipping out into the clear. He’s clearly the one to beat in this race, but taking 4-5 on this horse, who got in his own way last time out and is now routing for the first time, seems like poor value. I’ll put him on the A line, but I’m making Sioux Empire (#8) the top pick. He’s the only runner with distance experience, which came in open company at Delaware two starts ago. He had some run in that race, but he was behind a wall of horses on the turn. Cecily Evans opted to try the rail and while he was advancing, his running lane closed up in midstretch and he was forced to swing into the three path. I didn’t love his effort two weeks ago in the same race, but it felt like he was in chase mode from the outset of that one. He was in some tight spaces and didn’t respond well. A smaller field and the added distance may be what this one needs. 

Race 2:

Two year old fillies will go 1 1/16 miles in the first of several open maiden special weight races on the card. This is an interesting race with a lot of the talent in the outside stalls. While a lot of the eyes are going to be on both Dare Gently (#7) and Search Party (#8), I think Dolladoro (#1) is a second time starter that could pull off the upset here for Phil D’Amato. She debuted at Churchill in a six furlong sprint last month. She ran evenly, finishing in the middle of the pack while going off at 16-1. She’s bred to handle two turns, so the added distance should be welcomed in this spot. Her connections paid $550K for her at auction last fall, so the expectations have been high from the beginning. I think she’ll find herself closer to a pace which should be much more relaxed at this distance. I expect her to take a step forward in this spot. Both Dare Gently and Search Party are well-seasoned at this point in their respective two year old campaigns. Dare Gently has come up through the Florida ranks, running behind Mythical in her last two starts in the Florida Stallion Series Stakes races at Gulfstream. She was privately purchased after finishing second at this distance last out. Peter Miller has been off to a good start at this meet and he’s hit with 16% of his new acquisitions since the start of 2024. Search Party finished third in her last two starts. Both of those races came at Churchill and both of those races came at this distance. She’s well bred and she has gradually improved with each start. She has faced tough fields and she’s facing another salty group again today. Mark Casse is also off to hot start at this meet, and Cristian Torres is riding her instead of his other filly, Rockin Robin (#9). He tends to ride first call for Casse here, so that tells me that this filly is the preferred runner from the barn. 

Race 3:

The two year old boys will get their crack at the 1 1/16 mile distance in this maiden special weight race. I’ll try Fleek (#10) who has made two starts in lower level stakes sprint races to start his career. He’s sired by Flat Out out of an unraced Curlin mare, so there’s reason to believe that this one will only improve when going two turns. He was trained by Kevin Eilleberry in his first two starts, but Poindexter Thoroughbreds moved him into Chris Hartman’s barn for this race. He has two reasonable drills over this oval and should be a fair price in this spot. Circle Tap (#3) makes his 5th career start, and his first at two turns. The dam foaled Double Thunder, who was a winner in his first two turn race which came in stakes company at Monmouth. He would go on to finish second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland that year. Dallas Stewart adds blinkers, which may be helpful after a 4th place finish at Churchill in his last start. He struggled two back against a very good field at Keeneland, but I think he fits better with this group today. On deeper tickets, I’ll try Timberline (#5) in his third career start. He hasn’t been close in his first two tries, but he’s faced very good horses. He ran into Further Ado when he ran off the screen in a 20 length romp at Keeneland. He was up against Liberty National in his last start at Churchill. Further Ado went on to win the Kentucky Jockey Club and Liberty National was second in the Gun Runner Stakes in his last start. He needs to be a little quicker to find his best stride since he’s been too far back in the early stages of his first two starts. I think the added experience and the fact that there doesn’t appear to be a stakes quality colt in this race, should help his cause. 

Race 4:

Two year olds will go one mile in this $75K maiden optional claiming race. Horses that sold for $75K or less or were RNA at their latest auction are eligible to run with the waiver here. Otherwise, a horse must run with a $75K claiming tag to compete. Four of the 11 runners are being offered for $75K in this race. The morning mine favorite is Candy Cane Crain (#9) for Ken McPeek. He is coming off a strong closing effort to just miss in an auction maiden special weight race at Turfway. There are some strong synthetic influences in his pedigree, so the fact that he handled the course there, is not surprising. He certainly could be just as effective on the dirt and McPeek’s horses have been very live on this all-two year old card over the last few years. He’s going to be on some of my tickets, but I’m hunting for some value here. I think Rochester (#4) ran a strong race at long odds when debuting in a $150K maiden claiming race last month at Churchill. He was banged around at the break, but still ran on well to be a clear cut third in that race. He was purchased for $70K this May, so he’s eligible to run in this spot with the waiver. His pedigree tells me that he’ll improve at two turns. Moquett doesn’t have great numbers with horses routing in their second career starts, winning with only 2 of 37 of those runners over the last five years. However, 27% of those horses have finished in the money and the horses that run well are typically the ones that are well-spotted instead of shooting for the moon. On deeper tickets, I’d consider using Palmer Beach (#3) in his second career start. He’s sired by Omaha Beach who gets 18% winners with his runners routing for the first time. He debuted at long odds in an open maiden sprint here two weeks ago. The pace melted down in that race and he ran okay to finish in the middle of the pack. This is a softer spot and the two turn race should provide a more relaxed tempo. 

Race 5: 

Arkansas bred fillies will get their turn to go one mile in this maiden special weight race which drew an overflow field of 13. She’s So Coal (#8) is a full sister to the Grade 3 winning Arky bred filly Haulin Ice. Lindsay Schultz campaigned that filly early on in her career, and she’s proven to be very good when sprinting on this course. Her worst career effort came into her only two turn race though when she ran in the Charles Town Oaks. While that was a solid race, she was 2-1 at post time that evening, suggesting that going into that race, she was one of the better fillies. Perhaps that’s why seeing this filly entered in this one mile race is so puzzling. She could have entered in a six furlong race here two weeks ago, but opted for this spot instead. Her debut was nothing special, although it did come in open company at Churchill. In fairness, Schultz did win that race with Brunia, who has a different owner than She’s So Coal, but seeing her entered in this spot suggests to me that she’s not nearly as fast as her sister at this point. Both Tallahassee (#3) and Secret Slew (#9) entered in that 12/12 race at six furlongs. Secret Slew was the better filly that day, but I think this is a great spot for Tallahassee to turn the tables. She broke on top when facing open maidens at long odds at Keeneland in her debut. She led for about a half mile and then folded up in the late stages. She started here two weeks ago and was in the middle of the pace in the early stages. She came with a bold middle move along the rail before leveling off. This filly likes to be forwardly placed, so she should find herself in a favorable position heading into the first turn. Horses sired by Connect have won 15% of their first route races on the dirt in the last five years. The dam has foaled a Grade 3 winner and a horse that won twice at two turns in maiden special weight and N1X allowance company in Kentucky. I see her as the one to beat in this race. The backup for me is Miss Chocolate (#4) who breaks in the stall next door to the top pick. She adds blinkers after being hard to handle for the first half of her debut. She finished evenly to land in the middle of the 12 horse pack. Cristian Torres takes the assignment today in a race where she should move forward after getting some education on debut. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-5 will begin with a $50K maiden claiming race going six furlongs. We kind of know what the shorter priced runners are about in this race, and that may be good enough. However, there is enough upside with the second time starter, Little Krush (#11) for me to go in that direction. He ran into Boca Beach Club in his debut in a five furlong dash at Hawthorne last month. That horse has some definite talent as he finished a game second to Dirty Rich in the Advent Stakes here on Opening Day. Little Krush was unable to draw in off the AE list on that same card, in a race where Miskell (#7) finished second. I think this colt would have fit well in that spot. Instead, he had a pair of sharp works over the local oval in preparation for his second start. His trainer, Coty Rosin, has yet to have a runner finish in the money with nine starters going into the weekend. However, he’s a 17% trainer on the year and it’s only a matter of time before his local business will pick up. Perhaps that negative record will help the price on this one. I think he’s a good fit here and I’m looking for him to pull off the mild upset. Highly Connected (#2) is the backup in this spot. He’s one of a few horses that faced some really good competition in his first few starts. Englishman and Further Ado were daylight winners in his first two starts and he was left in their dust. He finished better in the one turn race, so it’s favorable to me that he’s cutting back to a sprint today. He was gelded since his last start and given a little extra time off. While you’ll have to overlook the fact that he’s lost his first two starts by nearly a combined 60 lengths, there are some things to like on the drop in class today.

Race 7: 

There are some very nice pedigrees in this six furlong maiden special weight race for two year old fillies. The morning line favorite in this spot is Izzy’s Gonna Run (#5). She’s been working well in the morning for Phil D’Amato. She drilled a bullet workout in 59:4 last week in preparation for her debut. D’Amato doesn’t have great numbers with first time starters though so there could be a cause for pause with backing this one here. Her dam, Isabella Sings, was a debut winner at this distance on the turf and she would go on to be a multiple graded stakes winner on the lawn for Todd Pletcher. She’s produced four other runners, all of which have been useful. Otello was a winner on debut at one mile on the dirt and he went on to win the Mucho Macho Man in his next start at the same one turn mile distance on dirt at Gulfstream. The concern for me is that her four runners have amassed 22 wins in a combined 78 career starts. While the horses have won on multiple different surfaces, every single win was at one mile or longer. Given this barn’s weaker numbers with first time starters, I feel this race is designed to set her up for her next start. She’s a deeper saver for me in this spot. I think there are a few other first timers that are better suited to win today. I landed on French Fiction (#7) for Mark Casse in the top spot. She’s worked well since settling in here at Oaklawn last month. The dam has foaled a debut winner in a dirt sprint and four of her five other foals have at least two career wins. Her only non-winner was from a horse that was hurt after one start. Horses sired by City of Light have won 15% of their debuts in dirt sprint races. Anything coming from this barn should be respected at this moment. Chris Hartman is another trainer that doesn’t have great numbers with his debuting runners, but I do think there are still things to like about Black Magic River (#9). She’s a daughter of Maxfield, who is off to a strong start at sire, winning with 26% of his debuting dirt sprinters. The dam has produced a debuting winner in a dirt sprint and the works over the local oval are solid. Tyler Bacon had two winners on the card yesterday and he teamed up with Hartman to win the opener. Like Izzy’s Gunna Run, My Gun’s Loaded (#3) is a first time starter by Gun Runner. Her dam hasn’t produced much yet, but this filly did sell for $650K at the Keeneland September Sale in 2024. Steve Asmussen can certainly have a good horse ready to fire at first asking. Gun Runner has a 20% win record with debuting dirt sprinters over the last five years. I think there is value in trying to beat either Gun Runner, but I do think this one is better suited for the six furlong distance.

Race 8: The $150K Years End Stakes:

Nine fillies are set to go one mile in the featured race on this card exclusively for two year olds. Counting Stars (#8) and Authentic Cat (#9) are both in contention to be the first two-time winner of this young meet and Counting Stars will look to become the first two-time stakes winner this season. Both of those horses are coming off strong efforts just weeks ago whereas Copper Wind (#2) has had five weeks since her debut win at the Fair Grounds. Asmussen has her based there and they ran the Untapable Stakes last Saturday for two year olds. He didn’t have a starter in that race and instead opted to have this filly travel here. Perhaps the extra week paired with the extra $50K in the total purse money swayed that decision. She’s a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred sired by Gun Runner. This is the first foal from a Lemon Drop Kid who never hit the board in two career starts in turf route races. Horses sired by Gun Runner have strong statistics in just about every category, and first dirt route is no different as his runners have connected 19% of the time in those races over the last five years. I think she has a good post for the race she wants to run and I see her as the filly to beat in this race. Breaking from the outside is not ideal, but Authentic Cat was visually impressive when scoring in the first race of the meet. She sat off the pace and then made a decisive move along the rail and drew clear with relative ease. That was a big effort from her first start and she could certainly improve off that race here. The two turn experience is a definite plus as many of her rivals will be trying that for the first time today. Counting Stars was equally as impressive when winning the Astral Spa Overnight Stakes on the first Sunday of the meet. She was patiently ridden as she had to wait for her moment to make her move. She pulled away with authority when clear and now comes back 13 days later for her first try at two turns. The pedigree is not a concern, but the water is starting to get a little deeper. 

Race 9:

Two year old fillies will get their turn to go six furlongs in this $75K maiden optional claiming race. Only longshots Buckeye Favorite (#1) and Brandy Foot (#8) are entered with the $75K claiming tag. You’re In Heaven (#4)was cross-entered as a main track only runner in a race that was contested on the turf yesterday at the Fair Grounds, so I’m expecting her to start in this race. The horses that Lindsay Schultz has brought to this meet have been live and I think this is a good spot for a speedster like Legal Lightning (#2) to play catch me if you can. She debuted at Monmouth and ran well to be second at the end of August. She came back in a race similar to this at Churchill, contested over a sloppy course, and was caught in the late stages of that one when she finished third. She’s making her second start off the layoff over a course where horses that closed down the outside had trouble getting home yesterday. Ken McPeek has a pair of runners that appear to be well-meant in here. While I’m not sure if Killa Sally (#7) has enough tactical speed to compete when considering how this course was playing yesterday, I think Huck’s Agenda (#10) might have the better shot. She debuted in the mud earlier in the month at the Fair Grounds, settling in the middle of the pack before finishing with some interest. She drew the outside post that day and she’ll be in the same spot once again today. McPeek had her sent here a few weeks ago and has a work over the track. I wouldn’t be surprised if Joseph Bealmar tries to put her in the race a little sooner today. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Yes Julia (#9), making her second career start and her first on the dirt. She was away at the back of the field in a five furlong dash last month at Churchill. She made up some ground late to get up to finish 7th that day. She’s sired by Maclean’s Music, so I think her game will transition to the dirt. She’ll need a better start, but this is a softer group for her second try. 

Race 10:

We’ll end the day with an optional $50K claiming/$50K starter allowance race at one mile. Four of the 12 runners in this race are able to be claimed for the $50K tag, while the other eight qualified for the starter allowance condition. The path to victory for Opus Uno (#12) is going to involve trying to clear the field in the first furlong from his outside draw. We saw a longshot do this on Friday, and that one came in second at a big number. This one should be closer to his 4-1 morning line, and that’s probably the lowest number I can take on him, but I like his foundation and since he’s sired by Vino Rosso, I expect him to handle the stretch out in distance with relative ease here. If he can’t clear off from his high draw, his task is going to be more complicated, so while I like his chances on paper better than any other in here, the outcome on the track could be more complicated. I’ll use both Horse of the Sea (#7) and War Munny (#3) on some tickets as well here. Horse of the Sea looks to give Brad Cox his second win of the meet. He has four starts, all of which were two turn races. He broke his maiden at Churchill three back on a fast track in a $50K maiden claiming race. He gradually improved on sloppy and sealed courses in his last two starts. He was a wide fifth in his last start at Churchill at this level. I think he could benefit from a dry track today. War Munny (#3) will be a price in this spot, but he looked good when breaking his maiden here on opening day. Miskell finished behind him and he is scheduled to run earlier in the day, so a strong performance from him in his $50K maiden claiming race would be flattering for this son of Munnings. The added distance is a question mark, but he should be closer to the lead with his inner post while going to two turns for the first time. We know he can handle the course as he tries to win his second straight race. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 13/70 (18.6%, $103.40 $1.48 ROI)