Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday 12/28/25 – By Eric Solomon

The last day of racing in 2025 at Oaklawn gives handicappers another challenging 10 race. The featured stakes race this afternoon is the Oaklawn Anywhere Overnight Stakes for three year old fillies that have yet to win an open stakes race. Post time for the first race is set to go off at 12:30 (CDT). Note that there will be a Thursday card on New Year’s Day this week, which will kick off the last four days of the Holiday portion of the 25-26 meet. After that, racing will be on hiatus here until January 30th. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The Sunday card begins with a $16K maiden claiming contest for three year olds and up, going six furlongs. There are some professional maidens in this spot, many of whom have had several chances to get that elusive first victory, but they keep coming up short. In races like this, I’m always looking for horses with less chances and some possible upside. I could make a case that Kensington Cove (#8) fits that bill here. He’s been sidelined after his $20K claim was voided back in June at Churchill. While he was beaten by runaway winners in his three in the money finishes, he showed improvement over the spring, including a pair of competitive efforts on this oval. Terry Brennan was the trainer of record when he was racing here last spring and he takes over once again for the Greycock Investment LLC group. Brennan’s lone starter at this meet thus far was a winner and I think this one has a shot as well. I’m not sure we’re going to get the 12-1 morning line price, especially the way that Ramon Vazquez has been riding here, however, I do think he has a decent shot to upset this field. Irish Whiskey (#6) is the morning line favorite, trying to break through in his 9th career start. He is trending up and is coming off a career top effort here two weeks ago. He was claimed by Danny Pish for $12,500. The condition that he is coming out of is labeled as a $20,000-$12,500 claiming race. The $20,000 claiming tag is only for horses bred in Arkansas, which the other horses ran with a $12,500 claiming tag. The difference between these two levels of competition can vary from race to race, but for the most part, they are similar spots in terms of class. He has more front end speed than many of his rivals in this race and he should be right in the thick of things. A horse I’d consider on some deeper tickets, but primarily underneath is Huevos d’Oro (#10) in the outside stall. While his speed figures are light, he has some competitive efforts and possibly some excuses. He was well-backed in his second career start after closing with some interest on debut last fall. He was claimed for $20K by Genaro Garcia and then went to the sidelines. He ran twice last winter at Turfway, coming within two lengths of the winner in a one mile race with $15K-$10K maiden claimers. He went to the sidelines again and resurfaced at the end of the Churchill meet in a $20K maiden claiming race. He showed a little early interest before backing out of the picture. I do sense that race was designed to get him ready for a race here. Garcia has done well, winning with three of 14 starters that he’s brought here so far, including a winner with Amir Mendoza on Friday.

Race 2:

Three year olds and up will go six furlongs in this $30K N1X claiming race, which is for horses that have not won a race in the last three months. This is a highly competitive race, led by the morning line favorite, Barksdale (#5). Being on or near the lead has generally been a good thing early on at this meet, and he’s pretty much the speed of the speed in this race. He’s been away for two months after a strong near miss in New York. After running well enough to be considered for graded stakes races as a three year old, his form has been up and down of late. He was claimed for $32K when winning at the Spa in August. He came back eight days later to finish off the board with $50K claimers. His last race came in starter allowance company against a sharp field. This is class relief for him, but with this large field, he is likely going to be under pressure for the entire six furlong trip. He’s worth using, but I’m looking at some prices that might offer better value. Got Thunder (#12) draws the far outside post for his second race off the layoff. He ran here two weeks ago in an open $30K-$25K claiming race where he finished 7th. He has more tactical speed than he showed that day, but it’s interesting that the blinkers were off that afternoon in a race where he was entered with the waiver. He gets one more shot to run with the waiver here, and Trisha Duncan is getting the blinkers back on. He is a competitive horses that has faced some horses that relish the Oaklawn park surface here  (Payne and Raymond are two that keep showing up in his running lines). While it’s been a while since his last win, I think he is a candidate to run a better race today at long odds. Attache (#1) was very good here last season, clearing the N1X condition in January and then running a strong second in N2X company later in the meet. He’s another horse that has more tactical speed than he’s shown lately. His last few starts have been on the grass where the early pace has been quite aggressive. We know he likes the local oval and he’s proven he can handle the rail post in a large field. I think there’s upside here as well. 

Race 3:

The only qualifier for this $30K starter allowance race is that a horse must have had at least one start for a $30K claiming tag or less since the start of 2023. Five of the nine runners entered in this race competed in one of the Claiming Crown races. I thought Navajo Warrior (#3) was a terrible bet as the near even money favorite in the Claiming Crown Classic at Churchill last month. There was no denying that he was coming into that race on quite a roll, but I couldn’t have recommended playing anyone at odds of 4-1 or better in that highly competitive race. Navajo Warrior had a rough trip where he never really had a clear running lane. Irad Ortiz tried to keep him inside and work his way through traffic, however, the little bit of a lane had closed up before he could get through, and that sealed his fate for that day. He has a decent amount of tactical speed, so I think he can get the jump on both Keen Cat (#2) and Curlin’s Malibu (#5), who are the other major players in this race. I think this is a perfect spot to rebound after having his five race winning streak snapped last month. While he’s going to be a short price, I do think that both Keen Cat and Curlin’s Malibu will take a decent amount of money as well. Taking the stand with him could create some value in the multi-race wagers by allowing you to spread deeper elsewhere. I think Keen Cat is a little better than Curlin’s Malibu, and his race here at this level last February was excellent. If that version of him shows up, he’ll be the one getting his photo taken. However, he has yet to run back to that kind of race in his six starts since that big time effort. I loved him in the Trail’s Head Starter Allowance race on Opening Day and he came up short, finishing second after some traffic trouble. He still had every chance to win that race, but he was up against a better horse. I think between the way the track is playing is with Navajo Warrior in the stall next door, I think the same outcome is the most likely scenario today.

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles in an optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance race. This is always one of the most competitive conditions at Oaklawn since you typically get a good mix of high level horses that almost always show up facing off against some up and coming types that are looking to find their way either into or back into stakes company. I landed on Seize the Night (#5), who is making his first start since May for Dallas Stewart. After winning the Tinsel Stakes here last December, he went off form in his next three starts, all of which came in stakes company. He had a miserable trip in the Fifth Season Stakes and then was marooned in post 14 for the Razorback. He came back at the end of the meet to run in the Lake Ouachita Stakes, which came up unusually salty with Saudi Crown defeating the 2024 Derby Winner, Mystik Dan. There’s not a lot of pace in this race, and I think he has enough tactical speed to sit a good stalking trip, ahead of some of the horses that like to come from farther off the pace. He’s been working like a horse that can still compete at this level. Tracking Error (#3) was sold at the Keeneland November Sale after a strong N1X allowance score at Aqueduct. His best races are the two turn races, so perhaps shipping here will be to his liking. Greg Compton has had a good year, but his horses have been ice cold to start this meet. That could possibly allow for his odds to drift over his 4-1 morning line price. On deeper tickets, I’ll use First Division (#4), who cleared the N1X condition with a strong effort on Opening Day. He was third in the Bath House Row Stakes after a dull effort in the Arkansas Derby in March. He has outperformed expectations after being purchased for a mere $15K in July of 2024, and I do think he has room to grow in this second start off the bench.

Race 5: 

The Classix Pick-6 wager will begin with a beaten $10K claiming race for three year olds and up going six furlongs. This race is designated for horses that have either never won three times or have not won a race in six months. Both Mighty Message (#6) and Ravin’s Town (#7) met here two weeks ago against a tougher field at this same condition. Mighty Message went to the front while Ravin’s Town, who is typically a front-runner as well, settled a few lengths off the pace. Ronnie Huckaby sent Ravin’s Town with a four wide bid, but he flattened out late to be third. Mighty Message was caught at the top of the stretch and could do no better than 4th. I’m not confident that either of these runners are going to be able to run back to that last effort. It’s Bobs Business (#2) has been running in allowance races at lesser circuits. He’s generally consistent in his one turn dirt races. I see him sitting just off the speed and having the stamina to wear down some of his rivals that have been struggling to finish races lately. Flotation Station (#8) is another runner that has been knocking on the door, but he’s failed to seal the deal in 2025. He’s been generally consistent when facing N3 l fields that are a little deeper than this group. He was a voided claim last out at Churchill, but he has several races that would be competitive at this lesser level of competition. On deeper tickets, Lea Me Be (#11) could be dangerous from his outside post. He moves into a barn that has not had a winner in the 2025 calendar year. However, this is his best distance as he cuts back from a two turn mile race at Remington in his last start. Ramon Vazquez taking the mount is a plus for me. 

Race 6:

$12,500 N2L claimers going six furlongs will be the first leg in the Late Pick-5. This is a very good spot for Charley Pride (#7), who ran a gallant race on this course at this level after blowing the break two weeks ago. After struggling to break through in California bred races, he went to Illinois where he put it all together when breaking his maiden in a $15K maiden claimer at Hawthorne. He likes to be closer to the front end, and with a better start, he should be. It’s been a rough start to the meet for Coty Rosin, but his last race was more unlucky than bad. I think this five year old gelded son of Arrogate is starting to figure some things out. Both Ragtime Sizzle (#4) and One Mor Story (#6) cross-entered in different races on the January 1st card, so I think it’s entirely possible that they both defect from this field. That would allow Mamoot (#13) to sneak into this race, a week after finishing third against a stronger field of $20K-$16K N2L claimers on this course. He battled hard in that spot, but gave way late. He’s a three year old that went off form a bit at Churchill. His last was closer to the races that he was running in Texas earlier this year. I think this is going to be his distance and I think the outside post should help his cause. 

Race 7: 

Three and four year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in this $75K N2L claiming race. Chaching Chaching (#8) was claimed for $80K out of a similar race at Keeneland where she was the 6-5 favorite. She was a beat slow and lost valuable position. She came with a strong five wide bid on a course where that kind of trip wasn’t winning many races. She hit the front, but the race winner, Miss Elle, got a dream run through along the rail and she was able to win going away. She came back to win her next start in starter allowance company at Churchill, and the third place finisher in that race came back to clear the N1X condition at Woodbine. She’s been a bit inconsistent, but on her best day, she’ll beat this group rather easily. While I think she’s clearly the one to beat, her past troubles at the gate makes it imperative to have a backup plan. Good Call (#5) was a sharp maiden winner in a $75K maiden claiming race here last sprint. She came back two weeks later to run a strong race at long odds in the Southern Hospitality Overnight Stakes. She joined Greg Compton’s barn in Delaware after the meet here wrapped up in the spring. She ran twice there, but disappointed as the favorite in both starts. She’s back with William Martin and making her first start since June. Cristian Torres taking the mount again is a plus. She should be in good position if she’s good enough. Army Nurse (#1) is a longer priced option that might fit better underneath. She is cross-entered on Thursday’s card, so she might not have intentions of racing here. She was a sharp winner with $50K maiden claimers two starts ago at Churchill. Genaro Garcia claimed her and then tried her in allowance company on the Tapeta at Turfway where she didn’t run a step. She’s back on the dirt for her new connections, making a relatively quick turnaround. I don’t think her last race was all that taxing though. 

Race 8: The $135K Oaklawn Anywhere Overnight Stakes:

Three year old fillies in search of their first open stakes race will sprint six furlongs in the Sunday afternoon feature. While the distance might be a touch too short, Decadent (#3) should have every opportunity to run this field off their feet in the stretch of this one. There is a lot of early speed in the outer half of the starting gate and I think they’re going to be cooking in the early stages of this race. She was a winner on debut at seven furlongs and her best career race was a two turn race on this course where she came from way out of it to score. She ran well in a small field with a slow pace in a one turn mile in her last start. I expect her to be finishing fast. Caliente Star (#1) is an Arkansas bred who has a state bred stakes win on this course last season. She’s been on the sidelines since finishing second in an open stakes race going one mile at Prairie Meadows back in June. This is a tough spot to make her seasonal debut, but she does like this course and she has some definite ability. I’ll use the heavy favorite, Modo (#6) as a backup in this spot. She may be quick enough to run this field off their feet, and considering the way this course has been playing, that scenario is a definite possibility. She will need to prove that she can put two big efforts together in consecutive starts though. 

Race 9:

The $5 Late Double starts with a $40K-$35K N3X claiming race. What separates this race from a N3L claiming race is that if a horse that has wins in races where the claiming tag was $20K or less, those victories do not count toward those three races. That explains the how Papa Yo (#2), a six-time winner, is able to run here. Four of his six wins came in lower level claiming races. He scored in a $25K claiming race in September at Churchill, which was his 6th career win. However, he has lost his last four starts after being claimed in that race. All four of those races came in starter allowance company. He drops in class, but he’s still competing in a race where his claiming tag is $15K higher than his claiming price. He’s facing a field of 10 rivals, all of which qualified for this race under the N3L condition. This is fairly significant class relief in a race where there isn’t a lot of serious early pace. He has more tactical speed than he’s shown in his last few starts which would give him a serious advantage over the major threats to him in this spot. He is strictly the one to beat. The backup for me is Shifty Gold (#4), who feels like a major overlay at 20-1 on the morning line. He ran into trouble at the break when facing a much saltier starter allowance group here two weeks ago. He ran sharp races for Chad Brown this summer against some decent fields in New York and New Jersey. Draw a line through that last race and he fits better at this level today, assuming that he can get back to that summer form. 

Race 10:

We’ll close out the week with an optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance race for Arkansas bred fillies and mares going six furlongs. I think Gently (#5) is a live longshot while shipping here from Delta. She made her career debut on this oval 366 days ago, running a solid second behind Queen Mallard (#11). She missed the remainder of the 24-25 meet and didn’t return until last month when she found a five furlong maiden special weight dash in Vinton, Louisiana. She went to the front and did not disappoint her backers, scoring by five easy lengths. Bret Calhoun typically doesn’t have his horses fully cranked in their first start off the bench, so I see this as a spot for her to improve. Several races on the Saturday card were won in gate to wire fashion and I think she could add to that total for the weekend today. Doubledaddy Issues (#6) was sharp in her first two races in state bred maiden special weight competition here last spring. She ended her season with a 5th place finish in an open optional claiming/allowance race. She ran a credible race after breaking at the back of the field that afternoon. She’s a candidate to move forward here in her first start since May. Ministry’s Destiny (#7) finished four lengths behind Doubledaddy Issues when she debuted last March. She came back and ran very well at long odds when she finished second in the Rainbow Miss Stakes. She ended her season with a win in a slow state bred maiden race on a sloppy and sealed course. She was much the best in that race where she went off as the 1-2 favorite. She was competitive in all three starts, even if her figures were a little light. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 14/80 (18.6%, $111.80 $1.40 ROI)