Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Thursday, 1/1/26 – By Eric Solomon

Happy New Year and Happy Birthday to all thoroughbreds! We’ll kick off 2026 with a 10 race, Thursday afternoon card at Oaklawn. They have carded at least one race stakes race for each day of the Holiday Portion of the 2025-2026 meet, and today’s feature is the Oaklawn Sports Overnight Stakes for four year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles. First post for the first card of the year is set for 12:30 PM (CST). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The first race of 2026 is a $16K maiden claiming contest for fillies and mares, four years old and up, going six furlongs. It’s hard to get past the two short prices in this spot. Both Can’tdealwithit (#1) and Ante Up Tony (#5) were California based runners that shipped to Arkansas for the winter. Can’tdealwithit ran on opening weekend where she finished second in a $12,500 maiden claiming race. Ante Up Tony ran in  a two turn maiden special weight contest here two weeks ago, finishing a well-beaten 6th behind a runaway winner. It’s certainly not a surprise to see that two of the leading jockeys, Cristian Torres and Ramon Vazquez, have the mounts on these two fillies. The rail can be a bit intimidating to lightly raced horses, so I’m going to give the slight edge to Ante Up Tony. I liked her debut in a state bred $50K maiden claiming race two stats back at Del Mar. Kelly Bainum was shooting for the moon last out and with a $100K purse for those maiden races here, I can’t blame her for trying. She cuts this Om filly back to a sprint where I think she can press Can’tdealwithit and then outfinish her in the stretch. Can’tdealwithit figures to be on the front end. She may be asked to try to keep up with Sweet Lexus (#3), who was a speed and fade type in her debut at the Fair Grounds in early December. I do trust Torres on this course to make the right call as he has piloted 13 winners already at this meet in the first nine days of racing. A deeper ticket longshot that is probably better suited for the lower rungs of the vertical exotics is Carmalieta (#6). John Haran claimed her for $5K at Horseshoe Indy two starts back. She stretches out to six furlongs and gets back on the dirt after two of her first three starts came in turf sprint races there. Her dirt effort wasn’t bad, although she got a pretty sweet trip and was still a beaten second that day. I do like that she’s getting the services of the apprentice Amir Mendoza, who has made a very favorable impression in his first season here. He has 6 winners with only 24 starts going into the week. I’m not sure this filly is good enough to beat the top two, but I do think she has more upside than the other nine fillies and mares in this spot. 

Race 2:

There are several restricted claiming races on this card, starting with a $16K N2L claiming contest for four year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles. Note that One More Story (#1) defected from the 12/28 race that he had entered, presumably in favor of this spot where he’ll run as a coupled entry with Purse Thief (#1A), since Workman Ranch LLC has ownership interests in both horses. This is another race where there’s not many longer priced options jumping off the page. This does feel like a very good spot for Youramystyle (#3) for Peter Miller. This five year old gelding was based in Southern California where he was claimed in his last two starts. He has decent tactical speed, which is generally lacking in this larger field. Miller’s barn doesn’t have great numbers lately first off the claim, but I do like the fit with this group. Amir Mendoza gets another longshot to work with here, taking the amount aboard Phenomenal Dream (#2), breaking from the rail. At this point, we know pretty much what this horse is about. He broke his maiden in his 26th career start, getting a soft field in an off the maiden claiming race at Horseshoe Indy two starts ago. What stands out isn’t how he beat an overmatched field, it was that he was competing at two turns on the dirt for the first time since April of 2024. He has done this only three times in his career, and all three tries at two turns on the dirt have been solid efforts. While assuming that everything is even, I think he’s going to have a very difficult time beating Youramystyle. I do think he’s a horse to upgrade in this spot, and I think he could add value to the vertical exotics. Purse Thief is the more desirable half of the coupled entry. However, this will be the first time in his career that he’s gone two turns on the dirt. He does have a pair of two-turn one mile races at Turfway earlier in 2025. Neither effort was terrible, but neither effort convinced me that he’s clamoring for added distance. I view him as more of a B line play, especially if both halves of the entry run. Since we don’t see too many coupled entries anymore, the few times that they are present, my anecdotal data suggests that more often than not, you’re getting less than ideal value for the runner that you prefer. 

Race 3:

Beaten $10K claimers will be going 1 ⅛ miles in the first leg of the Mid-Card Pick-5. This condition is for horses that have either never won three times or they have not won a race in the last six months. I landed on Eldon’s Prince (#7) as the top pick in this race. He’s making his third start off the layoff and should be one of the horses in this field that will genuinely appreciate the added distance. He was very sharp in 2023 and 2024 on the turf, placing a stakes race at Gulfstream at one point. He changed hands and ran a strong race in allowance company in November of 2024 on the dirt at Remington. He went to the sidelines for almost a year before coming back in allowance company there in October. He was flat in his first start and then improved while finishing 4th at this level in his local debut last month. I think the added distance and having that first race under his belt on this track should serve him well with this field. Ultimate Strike (#14) is not the most consistent runner in this field, but his best right now is likely good enough to get the win in this race if he gets the chance to run. He cleared the N2L condition when running with a $16K tag in September at Churchill. He ran a credible at Keeneland in starter allowance company before struggling in his last two starts. He was well-beaten last month in a N1X allowance spot at Turfway going 10 furlongs. He’s cutting back in distance for this race, which makes him a nice rebound candidate. On deeper tickets, both Huge Bigly (#10) and Eastside Cool (#12) are two veteran runners that love the local course here. Neither are in the best current form, although, but the nine year old, Huge Bigly has been more consistent of late. He didn’t have much to offer in the Trail’s Head starter allowance race on Opening Day, but at this level, I think he can still compete. Eastside Cool has been bad in his last two, but he almost always fires on this course. He’s been popular at the claim box as of late, but he showed nothing in his last two tries in Kentucky. He’s drawn wide and after those two races, I’m going to need every bit of his 10-1 morning line price, if not better, to be on board. However, if there’s going to be a bounce-back effort from him at this meet, it’s likely now or never.

Race 4:

There’s another overflow field entered in this $12,500 claimer going one mile. I have some questions about the favorite, Lend It Tewmey (#6) getting the distance in a two turn race here, and I don’t think the second choice, Hoodlum (#11) has enough tactical speed to get the victory. That leaves me with Rabbit Hound (#4) as the top pick in this race. He made his local debut with a beaten $10K claiming field here two weeks ago. He swung five wide and was gaining, but that kind of trip has not been winning many races at this meet thus far. That was a six furlong race where he was near the back of the pack in the early stages of that race. He’s drawn in the inner half of the starting gate, and there’s not a ton of speed signed on for this race. Ilkay Kantarmaci claimed him from Dan Ward and he hands the reins over to Luis Saez, who has been heating up after a slow first week here this winter. Lend It Tewmey is the clear backup here, despite the distance questions. His only career try at two turns on the dirt came in 2020 and his last try at two turns came in a turf race at Arlington Park in 2021. He’s been popular at the claim box, having been claimed in five of his last six starts. He did win at this level at Churchill when going a one turn mile in his last start. He very well could wind up being the pacesetter in this race, and the shortened stretch in the one mile races here might work in his favor. 

Race 5: 

Bottom $10K maiden claimers will sprint six furlongs in this race. There’s a few short prices stuck on the AE list, and the complexion of this race changes dramatically if Miracle on Central (#14) draws into this race. He’s dropping in class after nine failed attempts at breaking his maiden. However, when looking at some of the other short priced horses that have had several chances, he’s the one that has never raced in such a cheap race before. He’s making his second start off the layoff and he’s likely to be back on a fast track today as the forecast continues to be dry. If he doesn’t get into the race, I’d look to Amentum (#3) as the top pick. He’s also making his second start off the layoff after returning in a $20,000-$12,500 maiden claimer here three weeks ago. He was making the first start of the Danny Pish claim, nine months later. Something was clearly amiss two back prior to his time off. He was much more consistent in his first five starts, and if he’s able to get back to those efforts, he could be very tough to beat in this one. Two longer priced options to think about are Conway (#5) and Big Bourbon River (#2). Both horses are coming out of the same race that Amentum is coming out of, and both were making their first starts since the end of the 24-25 meet here. Conway ran a sharp race where he closed from off the pace when facing state bred $20K maidens in his last start of the meet. While he was well-beaten last time out, his speed figure wasn’t far off from his career top. I do wonder why he’d run in this spot instead of a state bred maiden claiming, but this is a fairly suspect group. Big Bourbon River has been beaten by double digit lengths in all five career starts. He did run his best race in a $12,500 maiden claiming race that was very strong for that condition back in March. He’ll get Lasix after showing very little last out. IF he’s going to move forward, this would seemingly be the spot to do so. 

Race 6:

We’ll start the Late Pick-5 with a $16K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. Interest is high once again here as there’s an overflow field of 14 entered. There’s an interesting dynamic with the morning line favorite What’s Her Number (#6). She’s trained by David Fawkes, who has great numbers first off the claim. Since the start of 2024, he’s won with 35% of his runners first off the claim and over a five year sample, he’s connected 27% of the time with these runners. However, he almost always runs these horses back relatively quickly. His 12 winners from his 45 starters first off the claim averaged 30 days off since their previous race. None of those 45 starters have been laid off longer than six months and only two were laid off more than two months (neither were winners). That 35% first off the claim number in the form is going to attract a lot of public money, but I think the layoff negates that success in this particular instance. I’m going to play against this mare in this race. I landed on Ragtime Sizzle (#7), shipping in from Aqueduct for Ilkay Kantarmaci. The $17,500 N2L claiming fields that she has been dealing with in New York are better than this $16K N2L claiming group that she’s up against today. Kartarmaci hasn’t had the same level of success that Linda Rice had with her earlier in her career. However, her last few efforts are little better than they look on paper. I’m thinking the change of scenery may be beneficial for her. While I don’t like his favorite, Fawkes has Silent Strike (#14) on the AE list and I think she could be a factor if she draws in. She broke her maiden in her 15th start, coming in an optional maiden claiming field at Woodbine. She doesn’t have a ton of experience on traditional dirt, but her one trip to Fort Erie to compete in a restricted stakes race as a maiden at the end of the summer, wasn’t terrible. Not surprisingly, Fawkes does well with new acquisitions, and the fact that she’s been running well of late is encouraging. It’s hard to take a short price on anything from Greg Compton’s barn right now. He starts this week 0-16 at this meet without any of his horses hitting the board. That trend will change, and this filly certainly looks like one that could start that change. He claimed her two starts ago at Churchill and he took a swing in a tough starter allowance race last out. She was not up to that task there, and this is a significant drop in class. I don’t love that she’s entered in a race with a $16K tag two starts removed for being plucked for $30K. Her better races put her right there in this race, but I think I’m going to need a better price than her 7-2 morning line number. 

Race 7: 

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $25K-$20K claiming race. I have doubts about the favorite, Demi (#3), and while I think Filly Crystal (#2) has the best speed figures, she needs a clear lead and she often struggles when she’s pressured in the early stages. She’s dropping in class out of N1X allowance, so she’s going to be a backup for me. However, the presence of Tell Me When (#1) to her inside might make her life difficult in this spot. I don’t know if Flat Out Rose (#10) has enough tactical speed to win this race, but at 8-1 I’m willing to give her a shot. She was hindered at the start in her last start when facing $30K-$25K claimers here on opening weekend. She still progressed well while going wide to get into 4th. She has some solid efforts at this distance at Prairie Meadows, so I see her as a horse that could be sitting on a bigger effort with this group today. Progeny (#6) finished ahead of the top pick in the same race, and she does have more tactical speed. She sat off a solid pace and gradually creeped up three wide, coming within a length of the winner. This is probably the right level of com[petition, so if she can back up that effort, she’s going to be in play here as well. Luis Saez in the irons is an upgrade. 

Race 8: The $135K Oaklawn Sports Overnight Stakes

This is a rare stakes race for four year old fillies only, all in search of their first open stakes win, going 1 1/16 miles. Lemon Zest (#6) is the filly with the tactical and class edge in this field, and it certainly doesn’t hurt her chances that Flavien Prat is scheduled to come to town to ride her in this race. She’s coming off a second place finish in the Remington Parks and most recently, a third place finish in the Grade 2 Mother Goose at Aqueduct. That was a very nice race as Fully Subscribed went on to win the Comely in her next start. The runner up in the Mother Goose was Drexel Hill, a filly who was making her first start since finishing second in the Kentucky Oaks. If the pace scenario was not so favorable, I’d look to try to beat her with Nerazurri (#2) or Take Charge Omaha (#5), but I think she’s set up to sit the perfect trip, while getting some fairly significant class relief. Nerazurri will be the backup for me in this spot. I think she’ll be willing to concede the early lead to Kerry’s Kiss (#3), while she tucks in behind that one and Lemon Zest. She was second at long odds to Haulin Ice in the Princess Rooney Stakes at seven furlongs this past fall. She was a handy winner in a starter allowance race in her first local race two weeks ago. Mark Casse’s horses have been very live, as he’s connected with 7 of his first 14 starters at this meet. I don’t love her at this distance, but I think she’s good enough to consider, especially if her odds float up.  

Race 9:

The $5 Late Double begins with a $32K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. I think this a good spot for Army Nurse (#6) who broke her maiden two starts ago in a $50K maiden claiming race at Churchill. Genaro Garcia tried her at this N1X allowance level at Turfway where she wanted no part of the synthetic course there. While she’s running for a tag below her $50K claiming price, this is probably the right level of competition for her. I think she’ll be on or near the lead and tough to run down late. This is a big drop in class for She Called (#9), whose figures have been regressing throughout 2025. She does have four starts on this course, all of which came against stronger competition and all were respectable efforts.. She was beaten by Foie Gras in her last start at Churchill and that one came back to win the Oaklawn Anywhere Overnight Stakes here last weekend. She’s never been offered for a tag before, but it seems like the right call at this point in her career. I think 4-1 is a bit of a low number for French Horn (#4), but she’s another runner that Mark Casse is bringing here, and it’s hard to look past those runners at this point. Her figures on Tapeta of late have been light, hence the drop in class. Her lone start on a traditional dirt course netted her a third place finish in the Astoria Stakes at the Spa as a two year old in the summer of 2024. Expectations should be tempered a bit as she’s lost her last four starts, each by double digit lengths. However, making her second start off the layoff and getting the surface switch and class relief, could be a part of a successful recipe for her. 

Race 10:

We’ll close out the first card of 2026 with a state bred maiden special weight race for fillies and mares, three year olds and up, sprinting six furlongs. It’s not uncommon to see some three year old fillies taking on their elders early in the season in these state bred races. Both three year old fillies that entered in this race, Bossa Dama (#13) and Menu (#14) are first time starters that are stuck on the AE list. Bossa Dama did enter in a race with a lesser purse at Sam Houston on Saturday, since there is not another state bred race for these fillies to compete prior to the 26 day break that separates this 2025-26 meet. I’d have to think if the opportunity for them to race comes up,they’d shoot their shot here. J J’s True Bet (#6) is the top pick for me in this spot. She was away a bit slowly when debuting in a one mile turf race with open maiden allowance types at Louisiana Downs in September. She’s bred to be a sprinter on the dirt. Her sire, Gentlemen’s Bet, gets 16% winners in dirt sprints. Her dam won her only race in a dirt sprint. She has produced some useful runners, most notably Dean Delivers who is a Grade 3 winner and has six overall stakes wins in dirt sprint races. Look for a much more professional effort from this filly in this spot today. Despite the age difference, Bossa Dama won’t have to be much to beat this group, which on paper, seems like a below average field for this condition. Her works are good enough and her sire, Cinco Charlie, gets 12% winners from his runners that debut in dirt sprint races. Steve Asmussen enlists Joel Rosario to ride, and as a three year old, she’s getting an eight pound weight break from the others here. If she runs, she’s worth putting on some tickets. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 16/90 (17.8%, $122.60 $1.36 ROI)