Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 2/17/24 – By Eric Solomon

Steve and Keith Asmussen were the story of the day yesterday, with the father/son duo teaming up for four winners on the program. The Asmussen barn has caught fire here over the last few weeks, opening up a massive 18 win lead over Ken McPeek. Keith Asmussen has moved into a tie with Francisco Arrieta for second place with 20 riding wins at the meet. Cristian Torres was held without a win yesterday, but remains well in command with an 11 race lead over that duo. The featured race today is the Dixie Belle Stakes for three year old filly sprinters. First post of the afternoon is 12:30 (CT)

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

While I don’t love taking a short price on a suspect class dropper, I think Rifey (#1) is better and more consistent than the others in this field. While this is a bit steeper of a drop in class than I’d prefer to see, Diodoro has already made good on this claim. We went from last to first when clearing the N1X condition for this barn at Zia Park back in November. He came back to run a decent third in N2X company at Remington. The purse in New Mexico was too high for him to be eligible for the N1X allowance level here and the local N2X company is much deeper than it is in Oklahoma. I can see that it might be a challenge to find a proper spot for this one, and his options aren’t as vast as some of the other runners in Diodoro’s barn. I think he gets home first in this race. There isn’t a wealth of early speed in this race, so the logical backup is Stand for Freedom (#5). We saw Keith Asmussen exploit a field that was lacking in early speed yesterday when he went gate to wire with Summer of Mischief in the 2nd race. I think he might try to do the same with this horse who has tactical speed, but isn’t typically a “need the lead” type. While I think Rifey is the better horse, it’s worth including Stand for Freedom on your tickets as the pace scenario on paper does favor him.

Race 2:

A field of nine fillies and mares are set to six furlongs in this $12,500 maiden claimer. At this bottom maiden condition, Arkansas breds can run with a $20K tag. Choctaw Blessings (#6) took some money in her debut two weeks ago at this level when she caught a muddy course. She broke near the middle of the pack and was hustled a bit to move up and secure a better position while trying to avoid getting buried along the rail. The favorite kept her pinned in along the rail while she advanced to the front and drew clear. This filly faded to be 6th, 11 ½ lengths behind the winner. She should catch a faster surface today, where she won’t be taking mud to the face. I also think she’ll benefit from that experience. This is not the deepest field for this condition and I think she can move forward enough to score in her second career try. I’ll try the first time starter, Rita’s Revenge (#8) on the A line as well in this race. Her full brother only started once and finished 6th, but that was at Saratoga in a race that was won by future Grade 2 winner, Instant Coffee. Her dam was a debut winner and her other foal to race was competitive in her debut at Lone Star. Clearly this filly didn’t look the part in the sales ring, as she was sold for only $23K at the OBS Sale in April of 2023. This barn is capable of winning with first time starters, so I think she’s worth a look, especially at this level. Zongs Irish Frost (#3) was sharp at this level in her last race of the meet last year, finishing a solid third. This barn doesn’t have a great track record with horses coming off the layoff, but, I’ll consider her after a sharp workout 10 days ago. I’ll hope to get a little better value than her 7-2 morning line in this spot. Both Latifah (#1) and Lastchancesaloon (#2) are likely to take money, but if they both run, I think they’ll duel each other into submission. Both fillies are speed and fade types, and with them breaking in the two inside posts, I don’t see any option but to send both of them. I’ll put them both on the C line, while only planning to cover with one if the other defects. 

Race 3:

This $12,500 starter allowance is reserved for fillies and mares that have started with a $12,500 claiming tag or less at least one time since the beginning of 2022 and have not won a race in five months (races for $12,500 or less are excluded in that allowance). Stoic Luna (#7) has a significant class advantage in this race. She was second in a N2X allowance race here last month, well in front of the third place finisher last time out. She’s a former stakes winner on the turf, but she’s won races on every surface that she’s competed on. Her form dipped a bit at the end of last year, so this feels like the right kind of “get right” spot for her. My backup plan would be using Undecoded (#1) along the rail here. Timothy Martin is in search of his first win at this meet after getting off to an absolutely brutal start. This mare made her first start in a little more than a half of a year last month. She was entered in this level in a sprint, which clearly felt like a race designed to aid in her fitness. She gets back to two turns and she draws the inside post in a race where there is not a dedicated frontrunner. I don’t think she’s fast enough to beat this winner on the square, but if she’s able to set a dawdling pace while Stoic Luna finds some traffic, she could pull off the upset. 

Race 4:

Assuming the forecast hold true and we’re working with another fast track, I think Shake Up (#11) is very interesting in this $45K-$40K N2L claiming race for Arkansas breds. He’s started ten times in his career, six on fast tracks and four on off tracks. He’s been a disaster in the mud and slop in those four starts, finishing off the board each time, losing by a combined total of 84 ½ lengths. However, he’s finished in the money in his last three starts on fast dirt tracks, two of those races coming on this oval. While his last effort with state bred N1X allowance types in the slop was dismal two weeks ago, he did put up a career top speed figure on off tracks, suggesting to me that this four year old has some upside when getting back on to a track surface that he can handle. His barn doesn’t win a ton of races, so I’ll want to get close to his 15-1 morning line price, assuming this field stays intact, but I do think he is a live longshot in this race. Chupapi Munyayo (#6) ran a respectable race off the bench last out for a barn that typically struggles with horses coming off layoffs. He debuted in a maiden special weight race last year and finished third and then exploded to win by double digit lengths in his second career start. His last few races haven’t been as productive, but I do think he’s a big danger in his second start off the bench. While he’s moving up in class, there’s no one in this field that has run a race like we saw from Forsaken last time out. I’m a little puzzled as to what to make of the effort two weeks from Choctaw Zip (#5). He was in tight for the first furlong, and never seemed to be able to get comfortable in the slop. He was racing on the better part of the track that day, but he struggled to get going. He broke his maiden in the slop, so that last race was a little discouraging to me. The fact that he wheels back in two weeks to run with a claiming tag for the first time tells me that effort was a bit discouraging for his connections as well. He is making his third start off the layoff, while getting class relief. His best effort puts him right there with this group, so I’ll make sure that I’m covered with him.  

Race 5: 

We’ll wrap up the Early Pick-5 with a $30K-$25K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares that will sprint six furlongs. Laura Branigan (#2) is the morning line favorite for Robertino Diodoro. For the 32nd time in the last five years, he’s bringing a runner into a race after last running on an all-weather track. Five of those 31 starters won, but two of those runners were already stakes winners on the dirt. Seven of those 31 runners were making their first start for him, and only one was a winner. While this filly could certainly handle the course and win this race, Diodoro’s generally high percentage numbers come back to Earth when making this kind of move. As a result, I think this filly is going to be too short of a price for my wagering dollars. I’m going to come back to Greek Heiress (#6) one more time, returning to the level where she was claimed by Karl Broberg two starts ago. She had a miserable trip that day, which caused me to make her my top pick last out, despite moving up the class ladder to a $50K-$45K N2L claiming race. She was wide on the sloppy course that afternoon, on a day where horses that stayed in the inner paths were typically faring better. I thought she still ran a respectable race that day and I’ll try her once more in her third start off the layoff. Karl Broberg and End Zone Athletics also will send out Bertie’s Cause (#7) in this race. She makes her third career start today and is eligible to run with the waiver once again. She was claimed for $30K when she won her debut last February. She was forced to wait for almost a full year before returning to the track. She came back at this level two weeks ago and paired her debut Beyer Speed Figure when she finished an even 6th. I do think she’s eligible to move forward in her second try off that lengthy vacation. Steven and Keith Asmussen had a four win Friday as this barn remained red hot over the last few weeks at Oaklawn. Lil Town Sis (#8) was claimed by Asmussen at the end of the Churchill Fall Meet in November. He gave this then professional maiden a brief freshening and he brought her back to face $20,000-$12,500 maiden claimers here two weeks ago. She was forwardly placed and was able to grind out her first career win in her 14th career start. Asmussen moves her up the class ladder and tries to strike while the iron is hot for this six year old mare. It’s hard to discount anything this barn is sending out right now, and while I think his other filly, Floating (#5) is a little more interesting, it appears that Keith Asmussen has earned the top flight mounts for his dad at this stage of the meet. Floating is still worth covering in this race on some deeper tickets. She was dull in her debut but she came back strong to break her maiden in December at Remington in her second career try. Clark Brewster transferred her to Asmussen’s barn after that score and this appears to be the spot he’s picked for her first try against winners. She did have a three furlong drill on Wednesday, so Asmussen may be eyeing-up a different spot for her. However, if she runs, I’m interested to see how she’ll fare. 

Race 6:

$12,500 claimers that have not won a race in four months will go one mile in the race that will begin the Late Pick-5. While it’s not very creative, I think this race comes down to Man On the Moon (#4) and Royal Act (#6). All things considered, I think these two runners are very close in ability, so I’ll lean for the better value play on the morning line and make Man On the Moon the top pick. He cut back from the mile to six furlongs last out when facing $12,500 starter allowance company. That’s not a great distance for him and he was tasked with facing the very talented horse, Therideofalifetime. He gets back to the two turn mile, the distance he traveled when beating open $8K-$7K claimers at Del Mar this summer. Horses didn’t need to be on the lead here yesterday, but being forwardly placed was fairly important. At better odds, I think he rebounds after his effort last month and sits a better trip than Royal Act. That one makes his first start off the claim for Jonas Gibson, who had another winner on the card yesterday. He was a winner last out, but remains eligible for this race since that contest was a $10K beaten claimer. He’s had some durability issues so that race was his first victory since December 2020. I don’t think he’s the same horse that was capable of hitting the 90 Beyer Figure plateau in December of 2022, but I think he still could move forward off his last race at this level and is dangerous while running for a barn that is super sharp first off the claim. 

Race 7:

Fillies and mares, three years old and up, will sprint six furlongs here. I’ll take a shot with the three year old filly first time starter, Alicit Intention (#2). She was working well at the Thoroughbred Training Center in Kentucky, which was good enough for Robert Medina to send her south to join his small string of horses here in Arkansas. She’s sired by Mitole, whose runners have won on debut 14% of the time with 71 starters so far. The dam has foaled some horses that have either won or have nearly won in their first career starts, so she could be ready to roll. She’ll need to be good, but I don’t think she’ll need to be great to win this race. Bold Appeal (#6) is the logical alternative, who should be a very short price in this race. She debuted with two year old fillies on New Year’s Eve and finished 4th after coming out of the gate keyed up. She opened a decent sized lead before coming back to the pack and fading to 4th. Cox takes the blinkers off, which is a logical decision after that last race. He’ll hand the reins to Julien Leparoux to see if he can get her to ration out that early speed. She’ll be a force in this race if she can. Popperina (#1) is a horse that I feel like I should like more than I do in this race. She was solid in her debut in December when facing $40K maiden claimers. Despite moving up in class, I don’t think this field is that much deeper than the group she saw at first asking. However, she was a vet scratch three weeks ago, and I wonder if that will cause her to need this race a little more. She’s a deeper backup play for me here. 

Race 8: 

Arkansas bred fillies and mares sprint in a six furlong optional $30K claiming/N3L allowance race. This is another tricky race for me because I’m not convinced that either Mozingo (#1) or Music Mistress (#7) can run back to their last races. As a result, I’m looking for some horses that may be on the upswing for this race. I landed on Sassy Lass (#6) making her third start off the layoff for Burl McBride. She improved as her three year old season went on last year, breaking her maiden in April, and then finishing in the money in the Rainbow Miss Stakes and an allowance race to close out her meet. She came back in December and has run twice at this meet, catching muddy tracks both times. I think she’ll appreciate dryer footing and I see her as a runner that’s sitting on a bigger effort today. Pattern Bet (#5) makes her second start of the year for Ron Moquett. She ran a respectable race with open $30K-$25K claimers last month. She was eligible to race with the waiver that day and she is again today. She is a three time winner that won twice here last season. She’s run well in her second race off the layoff in the past. Run Fearless (#11) is listed at 30-1, which feels ridiculous for this six year old mare. She was a winner in state bred N1X allowance company here last season as one of her three career wins on this oval. She came up empty in her first start of the year, finishing 7th, about eight lengths behind Mozingo. I do think she can make up some of the ground and I do think there’s a decent chance that the favorite regresses somewhat. 

Race 9, The $150K Dixie Belle Stakes:

Three year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in the featured race of the afternoon. Ghalia Princess (#5) is cross-entered in the Ruthless Stakes at Aqueduct this afternoon and the plan appears to be to send her to New York to get the seven furlong trip in that race. I am handicapping this race under the impression that she’ll be scratched out of this race. I didn’t expect there to be a very sharp pace in the Mockingbird Stakes at this same condition here last month, but Sharp Tune (#3) caught a flyer out of the gate and was winging it on the front end. She ripped off a 21:3 first quarter and was under siege at the top of the stretch. She dug in gamely to finish third behind Midshipman’s Dance and Tanya Showers (#7). That was the first time that Keith Asmussen was riding Sharp Tune for his father and I think he learned a lot about this filly that day. She could be the lone speed once again and she’d be more dangerous if he (Asmussen) can ration her energy better today. The over the top move that Tanya Showers used to get into second, hasn’t been playing as well over the last few weeks as it was earlier in the meet. She broke her maiden with that sweeping move two starts back and she nearly pulled out the win last month, if it weren’t for a smart, rail-skimming ride by Cristian Torres to get Midshipman’s Dance up in time. I think she is a solid closing sprinter, but this spot might not set up as well for her. Xtreme Diva (#8) is one of two horses sent out by Xtreme Racing Stables LLC and McLean Robertson. Robertson has had a very tough meet, but this filly has been his lone winner. I don’t love that she’s wheeling back off a career top effort, in just thirteen days. She does stand to get a very nice trip in this race though. She’ll be a backup for me as well. 

Race 10: 

We’ll end the afternoon with the 10th race, which of course is a $10K starter allowance race which drew ten runners. Gun Rush (#4) feels very logical in this race, getting back on the dirt after two solid efforts on synthetic at Turfway. He’s been first or second in nine straight races, winning six of them. While he’s more than capable on synthetic, he’s been somewhat of a revelation on a fast dirt track, winning four of five career starts and a second place finish in the only race he didn’t win. While some others have tactical early speed, he’s the only dedicated frontrunner in this race. He’s third off the layoff and well-spotted for his local debut. T Bones Trick (#10) draws the outside post once again after finishing second at this condition last month. He came with a wide move to close into second on an afternoon where the outer lanes weren’t ideal. He’s a professional horse, winning 14 of 50 times on the racetrack. If the stretchout sprinter, Bandera Azteca (#8), pushes Gun Rush too hard in the early stages of this one, he’d be the one that would likely benefit.

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 53/229 (23.1%, $506.40, $2.21 ROI)