Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 3/16/24 – By Eric Solomon

It’s Hall of Fame Day at Oaklawn, which features a 90 minute on track autograph session with some tremendous trainers and jockeys. This 11 race card is supported by the Purple Martin Stakes and the Grade 3 Whitmore Stakes. In addition, there’s an extra Pick-5 wager, starting in Race 3 and an extra Pick-4 starting in Race 5 today. Races 4 and 10 this afternoon are mandatory races for the NHC Championship Tournament taking place this weekend in Las Vegas. The other nine races are optional races for that contest. Do note the special first post time today of 12:00 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Open $12,500-$10,000 claimers will kick things off this afternoon. Despite the smaller seven horse field, this is not an easy way to start the day. While there are some others that want to be forwardly placed, I don’t know if anyone can run with Good Heart (#4) in the early stages of this one. He is a boom or bust type of horse, so value is going to be important, however, when he’s on his game, he’s tough to catch. He was caught late at this level in the slop last week and he faded to 6th. Andres Cambray earned his first win as a trainer this week, and he did it with the first horse that he claimed. A drier surface could be the key to his success in this spot. Drifter (#2) also starts for a trainer coming off his first win of the meet. Timothy Martin claimed this five year old who was recently second in a $10K claimer here last month. Three of his five career wins have come on this oval, including a strong score in the slop in January. There’s a chance that the pace will be strong, which should give him every chance to run down the frontrunners. Happymac (#5) is clearly a better horse on traditional dirt, proving that once again with a strong score with beaten $10K claimers here last month. Ingrid Mason claimed him for$10K from that race and her record with runners first off the claim is not the best. That was also a big effort coming off the bench, so asking him to duplicate that try 15 days later might be a tall task. He’s more of a backup for me in this race because he has shown he’s capable of maintaining his better dirt form earlier in his career. Big Swede (#1) might be a touch below some of the better runners in this race, but I do think he’s better than what we saw from him in his local debut last month. He was never comfortable, breaking a bit flat-footed, and then getting caught in traffic for the better part of the run down the backstretch. I trust he can improve second off the layoff for Diodoro. 

Race 2:

A field of 11 three and four year old fillies will go six furlongs in this $12,500 maiden claiming race. As per usual, Arkansas breds will run with the $20K claiming tag. Ocean Bird (#1) had no issue making when dropping into this level after being claimed for $24K two starts back. While she shows a nice pattern of improvement, I think she’s going to be under much more pressure in this race than she was last time. The race that she narrowly won was the second division of a race at this level on March 1st. Differently (#6) set a stronger ½ mile pace in the other division, and Asmussen sends out Texas Hottie (#11) who is plummeting in class after showing some brief zip with $50K maiden claimers last month. Assuming they’re sent for speed, I don’t see any of these fillies hanging on. I like Boogie On (#7) making her first start of the Karl Broberg claim. She closed well to be 4th in that race after breaking slow from the gate. The start has been an issue for this three year old daughter of Preservationist, but I do think she fits well at this level while moving to a barn that is sharp first off the claim. Predicting (#9) hit a little traffic when chasing Ocean Bird last time out, but she was done in when Ocean Bird was afforded a very soft second quarter. I do think a stronger pace will be to her benefit as well. 

Race 3:

$50K maiden claimers will go six furlongs here. The professional maiden, Gucci Boy (#2) returns as the 7-5 favorite. He crossed the finish line first with $30K maiden claimers at Ellis back in July, but he was taken down and placed second. Since that race he’s finished second four times in a row and was claimed in three of those starts. Jonas Gibson takes over, and he’s another high percentage trainer, with strong numbers first off the claim. His speed figures are superior to just about every other runner, but in addition to the fact that he finishes second far too often for a horse at short odds, I’m also concerned about the addition of blinkers. This is not a good angle for Gibson’s horses and this one in particular started improving steadily once the blinkers came off several starts ago. He’s better than most of these runners and I still think he’s going to be close, however, I can’t trust him as the top pick. Nofurtherquestions (#7) ran big to be third last out, only a 1 ¼ lengths behind Gucci Boy. He was making his first start on this course and came with a wide sweeping bid. As the race winner drifted out, he ducked to the inside, which may have cost him second. He took a big step forward from start one to start two, and I think it’s possible he could take another step forward here. A longshot that may be worth considering on some deeper tickets is the first time starter, Wilson Bay (#8). He’s a four year old Danza gelding, making his first start. His works aren’t super swift, but he has a pair of siblings that were winners on debut. Danza only gets 4% winners from debut runners in dirt sprints, but one of those winners did come on this oval. McLean Robertson has good numbers with first time starters and Bejarano taking the mount is a plus. At 20-1 or better, I could take a small shot on him if he’s looking good on the track.

Race 4:

The first of two mandatory races for the NHC Championship Tournament is a $10K N2L claiming race for three year olds and up, going six furlongs. This race is scheduled to go off at 1:33 (CT)/ 11:33 (PT). I think the Turfway invaders loom large in this race. I’ll give the preference to Isocline (#4) for Jordan Blair. Blair scored with a first time starter yesterday afternoon in a maiden special weight race, giving him his 5th win of the meet. This gelded son of Producer made the trip from Kentucky with his stablemate to give him an opportunity to compete on a traditional dirt course. He’s been beaten by double digit lengths in his last two starts on the Tapeta at Turfway. He makes his third start off the layoff today and if he can run back to his dirt form at Ellis and Churchill last spring and summer, he figures to be tough at this level. Deus Ex Machina (#8) has been running a little better in his last two sprint races at Turfway and now he’s slated to get back on the dirt for the first time since a dull effort here with $50K N2L claimers last February. He was very good on debut at Churchill in November of 2022, but he’s failed to find the Winner’s Circle since. While he finished double digit lengths behind the winner in his three local starts last season, those races all came against significantly better fields. This feels like the right level of competition for him now and I think his last two tries suggest that he’s trending up while coming into this race. Asymmetric (#3) and Cravensworth (#6) finished second and third in a similar race last time out. Cravensworth was making his first start since October that afternoon, so I think he has a little more upside than Asymmetric, who was making his third start off the layoff last time out. Asymmetric still looks like a shell of the horse that was racing well in New York when running for Chad Brown. He was sold at Keeneland for $25K, and he’s entered for a $10K tag here. I just think the others have a higher ceiling than he does at this point, so taking him as the favorite is not the direction I’m looking in. 

Race 5: 

The Early Pick-5 ends and the mid-card Pick-4 starts with this optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance sprint for fillies and mares going six furlongs. It’s good to see last year’s winner of the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, Taxed (#5) making her seasonal debut, and she’s facing a half-sister to the multiple graded stakes winning sprinter, Frank’s Rockette in American Rockette (#2). While these two four year old fillies to take the bulk of the money at the windows, I think this is a great spot for Backyard Money (#1) to clear this condition for D. Wayne Lukas. She just missed when stretching out to the two turn mile here last week. She was a game second in the Carousel Stakes at long odds three weeks ago. While this is an ambitious schedule, Lukas’s horses that run this frequently seem to stay in good form. I like the cutback in distance and I think she’ll have a fitness edge on her rivals. I like her a lot in this race today. Taxed feels like a horse that needs a race and is entered at a distance that is less than ideal in order to build up her fitness level. She’s never run this short and going from a route to a sprint is not the best angle for Morse’s runners. I think she’ll be more formidable as the season rolls along. American Rockette resurfaced at Gulfstream for Bill Mott last month after not being seen on the racetrack since November of 2022. She was a winner on debut in an off the turf maiden allowance race at Saratoga in her two year old season. She finished off the board in the Spinaway and the Frizette before a very dull effort in the Golden Rod where something clearly went wrong. She ran well in her return to close from off the pace to clear the N1X condition. While she could certainly improve in her second start off the layoff, she’s shipping to Oaklawn for Mott and facing a better group of fillies and mares today. She’ll take money since she’s trained by Mott and ridden by Flavien Prat, but she hasn’t proven that she’s fast enough yet to win a race like this. She’ll be my backup because I think the distance suits her better than Taxed, but I’d be comfortable riding with Backyard Money as a single in this race. 

Race 6:

The boys get their turn to sprint in a $12,500 maiden claiming race here. There’s a dozen runners with an even split of Arkansas breds running with the $20K tag and open maiden claimers running with the $12.5K tag. I think Without Objection (#3) is an interesting runner in this race. He shipped here from Turfway and was moved into Chris Hartman’s barn. He made his first work for Hartman on February 1st and ran in a two turn race at this level on February 11th. He had an outside post and ended up engaging in a three horse duel for the lead, where he was stuck in between horses. Between the sloppy course and being in tight quarters, he didn’t fire, throwing in the towel around the ⅜ pole. His debut in a sprint on a fast dirt course in Indiana wasn’t bad, closing into 4th after being a little slow into stride. He has two better works for Hartman since that race and he cuts back to a sprint. I see him as a live longshot in this spot. No Mo Winning (#9) is an Arkansas bred making his debut in this spot. He’s sired by Mo For The Money, who gets 11% winners with debut runners in dirt sprints. However, he’s 3-15 (20%) with those horses that run at the maiden claiming level. The works are decent, and his trainer, Karl Broberg, is certainly capable of winning with a horse at first asking. Violent River (#12) is the morning line favorite in this race after running a pair of races where his Beyer Speed Figures were over 60. That’s a figure that is going to be tough to beat at this level. He beat the second choice in the morning line, Chrome Candy (#10), by five lengths when they last met. My concern for Violent River is that we’re being asked to take a short price on a horse that has never been close to winning in his career. 

Race 7, The $200K Purple Martin Stakes:

A half dozen three year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in the first stakes race of the afternoon. Three of the six runners from the Dixie Belle are back to face three fresh faces. McLean Robertson trains both Xtreme Smoke Show (#1) and Xtreme Diva (#6), the latter of which was the winner of the Dixie Belle by a very narrow margin. Xtreme Smoke Show had some trouble at the top of the stretch and had to back out of a hole when Arrieta tried to send her through an opening on the rail. She re-rallied nicely to get back into 4th, but I don’’t love that she lost her rail position and the way her head was cocked prior to the incident. I’m not sure she was all too crazy about trying to run through that hole in the first place. Drawing the rail once again makes her task a lot harder. Her stablemate on the other hand has been excellent in her last two races, sitting very patiently off the lead before making her run. She draws the outside post once again, which should favor her style. Ramon Vazquez rides for the first time. Blue Squall (#2) was a nose away from beating the favorite last out in the Dixie Belle. She was moving three wide while Xtreme Diva was four wide, but she was never quite able to get past the winner. Cristian Torres rode her to her maiden score two back and he gets the return call today. I think we’re in line for the same outcome as their last race. 

Race 8: 

The Late Pick-4 begins with a state bred N2L allowance race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. I think there’s a lot of early speed signed on for this race, so I’m looking for horses that might be comfortable running with a target in front of them. I see The Girl in Red (#11) as an interesting player in this spot. She was a much the best winner with state bred $40K-$35K maiden claimers here last August on debut. She made her second start on a sloppy course at Lone Star in June when facing a field with several next out winners. She didn’t run again until facing an open $60K-$50K N2L claiming field last month on this oval. She outran her odds that day, finishing 4th, but tiring in the final furlong. She makes her second start off the layoff, while getting a bit of class relief, but racing for a larger purse. Calhoun is very sharp with his runners in their second starts off the layoff. Appealing Addie (#7) returns after a dominating performance on opening day. She crushed a field of state bred maiden special weight foes by eight lengths while being wrapped up under the wire. While I don’t love that she’s been away for three months, I do see her as a horse that fits very well with this group. The same could be said for Sthenic (#6) who was a winner on New Year’s Eve when she made her local debut. Prior to that, she made her first career start in July at Lone Star with open maidens. She missed a few weeks of training last month, but has worked twice since then, so I believe that she’ll be ready to go. In a field where there are several horses that won their only race on the front end when they had everything their own way, she stands out as a horse that won in a dogfight last time out. I think that toughness and tenacity can go a long way in a field like this. 

Race 9, The Grade 3 Whitmore Stakes:

James Graham has made a habit of shipping her to win stakes races, and I think he might be able to pull it off once again with Surveillance (#4) for Keith Desormeaux. These are the same connections that won the Rebel last year with Confidence Game. Graham came here last weekend to win the Grade 3 Azeri aboard Tiny Temper for Dallas Stewart. This seven year old ran very well to be 4th here last season in the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Stakes. He was falling out of form last summer so Desormeaux gave him some time off. He’s returned this year with a pair of strong efforts at the Fair Grounds, a course which he loves. He makes his third start off the layoff and could sit a cozy trip, heading the second flight of runners down the backstretch. Ryvit (#3) took advantage of being the lone speed horse in an allowance race here last month, winning by two easy lengths. Asmussen brings him back in a spot where there is a little more early foot, but not a ton. He loves this course, winning four of six career tries here. He’ll need to prove that he put another big effort together though. Tejano Twist (#2) wants all the early speed he can get on the front end. He chased home Skelly in the King Cotton Stakes last time out. That one went on to run very well in Saudi Arabia against some of the top sprinters in the world. He won the Ring the Bell Stakes earlier in the meet and if he gets a quick enough pace, he’s be storming home late. 

Race 10: 

While he does have a mount in the Grade 3 Whitmore (on the longest shot on the board), I have to wonder if Flavien Prat made the trip to Hot Springs this weekend to pick up the mount on Rocket Can (#8), who makes his first start since finishing 9th in last year’s Kentucky Derby. He’s the second runner for Mott that shipped here from Florida, likely to take advantage of the lucrative purses in allowance races at Oaklawn. He’s the 9-5 morning line favorite in this optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance race going one mile. He’s been working well at Payson Park in Florida for Bill Mott. This seems like an intentional spot to make his 2024 debut and the timing of this race leads up perfectly for the Oaklawn Handicap on April 20th, which offers a purse of $1,250,000. I think he can win this race, but I think this race is designed to get him right for that race next month. He’s a B Line play for me. I like Harlocap (#6) a good bit in this spot. He cleared the N1X allowance condition, winning that nine furlong race in impressive fashion last month. I think Asmussen might prefer this race to be a shade longer, but I think this son of Justify is putting things together nicely. He showed promise when he ran his first three starts in California for Baffert. His owners moved him to Asmussen’s barn in advance of the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds last year. He was dull in both that race and the Arkansas Derby, before running a big race in the Texas Derby at Lone Star. He didn’t care for the muddy going when making his 2024 debut in January, but he came back with a big performance last time. There isn’t a ton of speed signed on for this race, so I think he can get a good stalking trip, likely sitting behind Pat’s Property (#2). I think he gets first run on Rocket Can, which might be the difference when heading into the short stretch of the one mile races here. Pat’s Property is always dangerous on this course when he is the lone speed. He was close two and three starts ago when going off at 14-1 in both races. He has two wins in 13 starts on this oval, but he has finished in the money eight other times. He might be better suited for underneath, but I think he can rebound from his dull effort last time out.

Race 11:

We’ll close out the afternoon with a state bred maiden special weight for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. Many of the contenders in this race are coming out of either the 1/27 maiden special weight race or the 2/3  maiden special weight race, both at this same condition and both races contested on a sloppy course. While the track was definitely playing slower on 1/27, I think the 2/3 race was the stronger heat. The morning line favorite, Runninthestreets (#6) is strictly an underneath play for me in this race. She doesn’t have much speed, especially for these six furlong races. She often comes running late, but often is left with too much to do, as evidenced by her string of five consecutive second place finishes. I think there are several runners in this race with more upside than her. I’ll make Wildwood Queen (#12) the top pick. She battled for the minor awards with Q’s Your Mama (#7) last out, and while that one was two lengths better, I think switching to the outside will help this second time starter form Scott Becker. She’s a smaller filly when compared to Q’s Your Mama, and I think being on the rail, alongside a bigger horse while tracking a heavy favorite in the slop was not a recipe for success. Becker has not had a good meet here, but he wins at high percentages in Illinois year in and year out. He has great numbers with second time starters and I think this filly can move forward in this spot. Q’s Your Mama put forth a strong effort in that race and should be considered in this race as well. She ran hard, finishing third in her first try. She figures to be competing on the front end once again with this field, and she should be much tougher to catch in her second try. Aloha Gee (#14) is on the outside looking for in this race, but she ran a strong race on 2/24 at this level when making her second start off the layoff. She was forced to be last after getting sandwiched at the break. She ran well to close into second behind a well-meant second time starter that drew off in that race. She’s a threat to be closing fast in this spot if she gets to participate. Sparkly (#11) is another second time starter in this race that could be worth including, especially if Aloha Gee doesn’t draw in. She is coming out of the 1/27 race where she drew the rail. She was a little slow from the gate, but she stayed in contention, finishing about five lengths off the leader. Drawing outside for this race should be to her benefit. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 86/375 (22.9%, $899.20, $2.40 ROI)